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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s Top Tip for Remainers – if there’s a 2nd Referendum demand strict voter photo ID

At a constituency level there is a strong linear relationship between estimated Leave vote and not having a passport. pic.twitter.com/VxRTv6zCuS

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Ishmael_Z

First

Richard_Tyndall

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

The_Taxman

Third!

Ishmael_Z

Is it not the case that there are ethnic religious subgroups which dislike photographs so much that they'd rather not vote drive etc than be photographed? We all know that you don't go around snapping Muslim women in foreign parts. Fruitful conspiracy theory possibilities here.

Richard_Tyndall

The_Taxman said:

Second!

Only 33.3% out.

MikeSmithson

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

The_Taxman

I think the use of ID will disenfranchise the poor, vulnerable and ill.

If voting is going to change then it should be made compulsory! You can always spoil your ballot.

Beibheirli_C

It sounds like a plan!!

Richard_Tyndall

Being more serious. ID for voting is designed to deal with a non existent problem. Since everyone who follows British elections knows this, the only possible reasons for pushing this are either to try and disenfrachise certain minorities or to try and con the public into thinking there is a problem.

Neither of these are valid reasons.

The_Taxman

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Second!

Only 33.3% out.

Changed to Third!

MarqueeMark

Not missed anything while I've been away for three days then....

Richard_Tyndall

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

I don't. But I know that is what is being considered and I believe it will be the eventual formal position adopted.

Richard_Tyndall

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Second!

Only 33.3% out.

Changed to Third!

Bullseye

The_Taxman

Ishmael_Z said:

Is it not the case that there are ethnic religious subgroups which dislike photographs so much that they'd rather not vote drive etc than be photographed? We all know that you don't go around snapping Muslim women in foreign parts. Fruitful conspiracy theory possibilities here.

If someone can vote but does not have capacity to organise ID, then IMO it would be a discriminatory action against the disabled for instance. Not the sort of thing any UK govt should be doing...

ydoethur

The_Taxman said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Is it not the case that there are ethnic religious subgroups which dislike photographs so much that they'd rather not vote drive etc than be photographed? We all know that you don't go around snapping Muslim women in foreign parts. Fruitful conspiracy theory possibilities here.

If someone can vote but does not have capacity to organise ID, then IMO it would be a discriminatory action against the disabled for instance. Not the sort of thing any UK govt should be doing...

I think the only way to have voter ID is to have compulsory photo ID cards.

The odds of that happening in this country are precisely bugger all.

logical_song

Richard_Tyndall said:

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

I don't. But I know that is what is being considered and I believe it will be the eventual formal position adopted.

That's one way of losing.

Beibheirli_C

logical_song said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

I don't. But I know that is what is being considered and I believe it will be the eventual formal position adopted.

That's one way of losing.

I never realised Leavers where so organised that they have a centralised policy unit...

You would think with organisation like that, they would know what sort of Brexit they were backing

GIN1138

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

Of course.

Vote Leave and Leave.EU will boycott any second refernedum as will millions of leave voters.

Followed by a formal pact between Con and BXP to implement a No Deal Brexit without a refernedum after the next general election.

No A50 this time just straight forward repeal the 1972 European Communites act and we're done.

williamglenn

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Sunil_Prasannan

ydoethur said:

Gordon bloody Bennett.

I never thought Brexit would be sunlit uplands but I didn’t expect it to include war with Spain!

War of Andrea Jenkyns' Ear?

Sunil_Prasannan

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

Surely if my former fellow Leavers are so passionate about Leaving, they will vote again in droves! They might even get a bigger majority this time!

Mexicanpete

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Dig for victory?

JackW

Have French troops invaded Sark yet? .... If so I hope the part-time police officer has advised them that mechanised transport is banned on the island.

Beibheirli_C

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Dig for victory?

Pease puddings all round!!!!!

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Turnips for all.

It will be a Tory landslide.

stodge

Evening all

Bellicose ranting - spare me. We live in the greatest place on Earth apparently but you have to wait a month to get an appointment with a GP and the transport system can't deal with the capacity and, on a daily basis, causes stress and inconvenience to individuals and business.

That doesn't matter because as you hear your train is delayed or cancelled you can be assured you live in the greatest place on Earth.

You can even participate in democracy as long as bring your Government photo id. If I were a cynic I'd call this a Conservative plan to discourage potential non-Conservative voters though now the Tories are the Party of the working class Leaver (apparently), this might be a double edge sword.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

nichomar

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

Of course.

Vote Leave and Leave.EU will boycott any second refernedum as will millions of leave voters.

Followed by a formal pact between Con and BXP to implement a No Deal Brexit without a refernedum after the next general election.

No A50 this time just straight forward repeal the 1972 European Communites act and we're done.

Bring it on nobody is going to ever vote for this shit ever again if we ever get to that position. There is no golden pot at the end of the imaginary rainbow. Real issues will become far more important than something that was never going to anything to benefit anybody but the few.

Scrapheap_as_was

just stumbled accross Laura Pidcock being interviewed on C4 news.

She's a surefire winner based on that performance, get her in quick.

ydoethur

Whoops. Wrong thread!

DecrepitJohnL

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Dig for victory?

We need a prime minister with allotment experience.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

The_Taxman

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Turnips for all.

It will be a Tory landslide.

Raw turnips at that! Cooked ones would be a luxury. Purity is the order of the day!

Reminds me of Blackadder the second!

stodge

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

Anabobazina

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

More utterly pointless polls. @AndyJS will pop up shortly to defend this endless niagra of meaningless garbage.

GIN1138

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Mexicanpete

stodge said:

Evening all

Bellicose ranting - spare me. We live in the greatest place on Earth apparently but you have to wait a month to get an appointment with a GP and the transport system can't deal with the capacity and, on a daily basis, causes stress and inconvenience to individuals and business.

That doesn't matter because as you hear your train is delayed or cancelled you can be assured you live in the greatest place on Earth.

You can even participate in democracy as long as bring your Government photo id. If I were a cynic I'd call this a Conservative plan to discourage potential non-Conservative voters though now the Tories are the Party of the working class Leaver (apparently), this might be a double edge sword.

Thank you for your EURef votes, but your services are no longer required.

Charles

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Second!

Only 33.3% out.

Changed to Third!

The Remainer strategy... a miss so you change the rules

ydoethur

Scrapheap_as_was said:

just stumbled accross Laura Pidcock being interviewed on C4 news.

She's a surefire winner based on that performance, get her in quick.

How could anyone doubt that based on her epic fact free rant maiden Parliamentary speech?

GIN1138

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

The 12% for BXP is key for Con.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

GIN1138

Anabobazina said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

More utterly pointless polls. @AndyJS will pop up shortly to defend this endless niagra of meaningless garbage.

Hey don't diss the wonderful @AndyJS

Beibheirli_C

The_Taxman said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Turnips for all.

It will be a Tory landslide.

Raw turnips at that! Cooked ones would be a luxury. Purity is the order of the day!

Reminds me of Blackadder the second!

Who sits on the spike?

Wulfrun_Phil

Good thread. There's a name for this in the USA. Voter Suppression.

Sometimes though this sort of thing can backfire with unforeseen consequences.

I recall the 2015 election, when Cameron, Osborne and May insisted on bringing in an untried system of individual electoral registration that as they were well aware it would just happened to drastically reduce the proportion of eligible adults who were registered to vote. And conveniently it was those who tended to be younger or students or living in poor quality private rented accommodation or at transient addresses or ethnic minorities. The change helped the Conservatives win the 2015 election, as they expected.

They might still be in a job had they also realised that the same disenfranchised demographic would have generally supported Remain at the 2016 referendum.

IanB2

Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time. Meanwhile lunch at an Italian restaurant streetside in New York sunshine makes Brexit seem a long way away. As it probably is.

rpjs

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Turnips for all.

It will be a Tory landslide.

Raw turnips at that! Cooked ones would be a luxury. Purity is the order of the day!

Reminds me of Blackadder the second!

Who sits on the spike?

Two spikes would be an extravagance!

Mexicanpete

GIN1138 said:

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

The 12% for BXP is key for Con.

Half of the 12 to the Tories. The remainder disenfranchised?

ydoethur

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

eek

GIN1138 said:

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

The 12% for BXP is key for Con.

And that 12% are the leave voters who will never vote Tory.

Good luck trying to win their votes.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time.

The vet or the dog?

Wulfrun_Phil

GIN1138 said:

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

The 12% for BXP is key for Con.

And contrasts with the 3% only for the Greens which justin124 keeps telling us is key for Lab.

SandyRentool

Approved forms of i.d.:

1. Conservative Party membership card.

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

Approved forms of i.d.:

1. Conservative Party membership card.

Do they have photos on?

RobD

eek said:

GIN1138 said:

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

As we've often seen, voters rush back to the big two at the first sniff of electoral gunpowder.

Hardly a majority winning lead for Johnson on that evidence and we haven't even had the campaign.

The 12% for BXP is key for Con.

And that 12% are the leave voters who will never vote Tory.

Good luck trying to win their votes.

Who doesn't love digging into subsamples. A large fraction of them voted Tory in 2017.

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Tables-for-publication-111019.pdf

alex.

Any chance there are any Tory MPs showing any spines and speaking out against the disgraceful proposal?

AndyJS

This thread seems to be based on a hunch I had in the previous one, that actually elderly people may be less likely to have photo ID than younger people.

ThomasNashe

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

Cheltenham Ladies College, I think.

nichomar

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time.

The vet or the dog?

Although it’s one of the many problems about this whole business which is just starting to register with people.

Ishmael_Z

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

How hard is it to do this?

https://tinyurl.com/hyufdrocks

The_Taxman

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Turnips for all.

It will be a Tory landslide.

Raw turnips at that! Cooked ones would be a luxury. Purity is the order of the day!

Reminds me of Blackadder the second!

Who sits on the spike?

Dont tempt me to say!

AndyJS

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

A very good poll for Labour.

Stark_Dawning

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.

justin124

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

alex.

AndyJS said:

This thread seems to be based on a hunch I had in the previous one, that actually elderly people may be less likely to have photo ID than younger people.

Will they need it if they’re all voting by post? Youngsters of course all need it these days to get into pubs.

How can you get photo ID at short notice in an election period if you’ve recently moved house? Or is the address on the ID not going to matter? (if it does it creates an additional challenge for voters eg. Students registered in two places)

Mexicanpete

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.

Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

Yet leaving the LDs with the balance of power, they of course would abstain unless Labour replace Corbyn as party leader leaving Boris still as PM as Tories plus DUP would still be more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green

AndyJS

"Violent clashes over Catalan separatist leaders' prison terms
Chaos at Barcelona airport as protesters react to sentencing over 2017 bid for independence"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/catalan-separatist-leaders-given-lengthy-prison-sentences

justin124

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

nichomar

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

Yet leaving the LDs with the balance of power, they of course would abstain unless Labour replace Corbyn as party leader leaving Boris still as PM as Tories plus DUP would still be more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green

Very unlikely that they would abstain on a VNOC in Johnson.

stodge

SandyRentool said:

Approved forms of i.d.:

1. Conservative Party membership card.

In fact, they will give you an extra five votes if you have such a thing. Clearly, if you have a Labour, LD, Green or BP card you will be sent away and told not to come back because the likes of you aren't entitled to vote in the greatest place on Earth.

williamglenn

Mexicanpete said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.

Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.

It's a strange perversion of socialism in one country. He wants free trade in one country.

AndyJS

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

The Corbynistas in the Labour Party are already saying they want an election to be called on 1st November as soon as No Deal is averted, and this poll will only encourage them I expect.

algarkirk

alex. said:

AndyJS said:

This thread seems to be based on a hunch I had in the previous one, that actually elderly people may be less likely to have photo ID than younger people.

Will they need it if they’re all voting by post? Youngsters of course all need it these days to get into pubs.

How can you get photo ID at short notice in an election period if you’ve recently moved house? Or is the address on the ID not going to matter? (if it does it creates an additional challenge for voters eg. Students registered in two places)

There is little point in having a security system in place for those who go to the polling station if the open door to voting malpractice remains for postal voters.

Nigelb

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

More to the point, even if they did, how could you know for sure ?

justin124

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.

Redwood was one of those early agitators. One would have assumed he at least would have his story straight by now.

It's a strange perversion of socialism in one country. He wants free trade in one country.

That would mean a December election.

nichomar

AndyJS said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

The Corbynistas in the Labour Party are already saying they want an election to be called on 1st November as soon as No Deal is averted, and this poll will only encourage them I expect.

Well good luck to them

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

Yet leaving the LDs with the balance of power, they of course would abstain unless Labour replace Corbyn as party leader leaving Boris still as PM as Tories plus DUP would still be more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green

Very unlikely that they would abstain on a VNOC in Johnson.

The LDs have made clear they will never put Corbyn in No 10, so at most they would force another GE unless Labour dumps Corbyn as leader

Yorkcity

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

It is a bit close , for a government which has been in propaganda election mode, for the last 3 months.

Gallowgate

Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.

ydoethur

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn

I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.

But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?

algarkirk

Stark_Dawning said:

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

Do any Leavers still take Brexit seriously? They appear to just be in it for laughs. I feel genuinely sorry for those who spent decades agitating for this thing. It’s a comedy sketch.

There may be lots to take issue with about John Redwood, but surely only closed minded and uninformed urbanites can think a progressive agriculture policy for the UK is just a comedy turn.

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

The Corbynistas in the Labour Party are already saying they want an election to be called on 1st November as soon as No Deal is averted, and this poll will only encourage them I expect.

Yes, losing 11 current Labour seats even on this poll, how encouraging!

IanB2

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

Took the dog to an American vet this morning to get his treatment and pet passport endorsed for our return crossing to the UK on Friday. And hoping he won't be deprived of his EU citizenship in a fortnight's time.

The vet or the dog?

The vet was a Northern Irish woman who married an American but pines for home.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1183814379160162306

eek

Gallowgate said:

Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.

At least you will be prepared to defend yourself if Brexit results in needing to revert to cannibalism..

Anabobazina

AndyJS said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

A very good poll for Labour.

Take your pick, you might as well make it up.

justin124

If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.

Ishmael_Z

Nigelb said:

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

It wouldn't matter. Leave would boycott a loser's revote anyway.

How do you know?

More to the point, even if they did, how could you know for sure ?

And why would we not take it as a realistic admission on their part that they are not qualified to take part in the ochlocratic process? As a tactic, it's right up there with the suicide squad in Life of Brian.

stodge

Gallowgate said:

Evening everyone. Haven’t been on here much lately. This law course is hella intensive. I have to defend murder and cannibalism on Wednesday based on the defence of necessity. Brexit is not hard in comparison.

Let's hope all you have to eat on Wednesday are your words.

Anabobazina

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

Yet leaving the LDs with the balance of power, they of course would abstain unless Labour replace Corbyn as party leader leaving Boris still as PM as Tories plus DUP would still be more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green

Very unlikely that they would abstain on a VNOC in Johnson.

Agh! It’s VONC not VNOC!!

stodge

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1183814379160162306

The ditch awaits.

nichomar

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn

I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.

But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?

I don’t think so she claimed to have left school at 15 and her background precludes it. I think it may be no more than wanting to protect her personal life and those loosely associated with it from unwarranted intrusion.
Football going nasty I’m afraid

Theuniondivvie

williamglenn said:

The new temperance movement: abstinence from foreign food.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1183681733369257984

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Corbyn will be getting itchy palms.

algarkirk

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know what school Laura Pidcock went to? It would be useful to know for some stuff I’m doing at school but it’s curiously difficult to find out.

Well I can’t find the answer but she is, from what I read, not the solution for labour. She is more unhinged than corbyn

I think her key problem is that while she talks a good game, she comes across as rather selfish and narrow minded. Her buggering off to Italy on a 30th birthday treat with her boyfriend and missing a crucial vote on Universal Credit was not a good look. That, in fairness to the likes of a Skinner, was something they would never have done.

But I am puzzled as to why her background seems to be so difficult to penetrate. Most MPs are very happy to share what school they went to and very useful it is when doing careers presentations. But from her, not a dicky bird. Might she have been privately educated and covering it up?

I am sure she is very nice and very committed but her narrowness, shoutiness and her fake accent (extraordinary mixture of North East and southern estuary) tells against her. That she went to Italy with her boyfriend for her 30th in preference to some meaningless piece of politics suggests she has good points; but that C4 interview tonight was mindblowingly bad

Scott_P

stodge said:

The ditch awaits.

https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1180757703334989824

HYUFD

justin124 said:

If the polls in an election campaign showed a GB picture as tight as Panelbase is reporting, I would certainly expect Labour to recover ground in Scotland to 25% plus.

Even so that does not change the fact Boris stays PM, whether an MP is SNP or Labour makes zero difference to his chances of staying in office

Ishmael_Z

Anabobazina said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183809394699575298

Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 309, Labour 251, LDs 33

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33&LAB=30&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

The poll implies a swing from Lab to Con of 0.3%. That would - on a UNS basis - result in 7 Tory gains from Labour.. However, 4 of the MPs under threat would enjoy first - time incumbency - very likely to be crucial when the swing is so tiny. The Tories would lose 13 seats to LDs and circa 8 to SNP. That would leave them with 304 seats - not enough to carry on with DUP support.

Yet leaving the LDs with the balance of power, they of course would abstain unless Labour replace Corbyn as party leader leaving Boris still as PM as Tories plus DUP would still be more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Green

Very unlikely that they would abstain on a VNOC in Johnson.

Agh! It’s VONC not VNOC!!

I am happy to parse it as Vote of NO Confidence.

justin124

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1183807167478022146

Labour MPs still not keen on a general election.

How odd!

Perhaps this poll will change a few minds!

The Corbynistas in the Labour Party are already saying they want an election to be called on 1st November as soon as No Deal is averted, and this poll will only encourage them I expect.

Yes, losing 11 current Labour seats even on this poll, how encouraging!

On this poll - and we have no idea how accurate it is - I would expect very few losses to the Tories. When the swing is so small - as in 2015 - Labour might well lose just 3 or 4 to the Tories and indeed make some gains to offset them. The other losses would mainly be to SNP , but if Labour gains momentum, many of them could be saved.

HYUFD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1183814379160162306

Boris will just send 2 letters, the second rejecting extension, nominate a Brexiteer Commissioner from the UK and reduce defence cooperation with any nations backing extension.

He will negotiate again from No Deal, not willingly after further extension