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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow
Betfair have a market up on their exchange tomorrow’s big vote in the Commons and the Betdata.io chart above shows the movement since 1430 this afternoon. As can be seen the betting consensus is moving to the motion getting through.
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For clarity if the House of Commons vote to amend the motion then this market will be settled on the vote on the Government Motion AS AMENDED
It's the Corbyn deal bounce
If Letwin is the only successful amendment the deal passes subject to the Withdrawal Bill passing next week
If so the mps have surely lost their chance to show the EU there is a majority in the HOC for a GE or especially a referendum so any extension which is requested would be short and only for technical reasons thereby making the deal certain, as no deal is the only other option
Bercow should reject the amendment so we can just have a proper vote.
Pretty sure Letwin will pass, so a major factor in this bet is whether Cummings pulls the whole thing straight afterwards. Although it looks like it would result in a void - so money back.
Sorry I'm so confused about this.
I think the EU are going to be furious and their action will be critical to how this plays out
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185241053818961925?s=20
I’m incredibly sad about Brexit , not so much for myself as I can qualify for an EU passport through my parents but for the younger generation .
However I can’t see a second vote happening so it’s pointless dragging this out for much longer , a few extra weeks to get everything through and then that’s it.
You wrote "Assuming it [Letwin's amendment] passes, it must make a 2019 election much less likely - in that by the time the Withdrawal Bill is enacted no election could be held before mid- December."
Surely it's the motion passing (amended or unamended) that necessitates the WAIB, not Letwin's amendment?
I only want the deal as I really do believe the referendum should be respected but in truth the best deal is being in the EU though that is my head ruling my heart
After all the hate and right wing crap thrown at them and how they spoke in warm terms about the door always being open to the UK if it wanted to return one day .
But what’s done is done . At least with a deal good relations can be preserved . No deal would have been an absolute catastrophe.
I know - I'm looking for straws to grasp here....
The motion is to express backing for the deal. If it's amended, it's meant to be understood as still expressing backing for the deal, but deferred so that it doesn't count as a meaningful motion for the purposes of the Benn Act.
The amendment is an insurance policy against accidentally crashing out if there are problems with the process over the next couple of weeks. Obviously voting for the amendment isn't expressing backing for the deal.
As far as I know, Grieve is backing the amendment, but not the motion, whether amended or not.
But this has gone on long enough; I’ve a lot of sympathy with business who need some sort of ability to plan, and my former colleagues who need to have secure means of R&D co-operation.
Time to make Johnson accept responsibility for the mess he has, and is, creating.
Although Brexit is going to do a LOT of damage to the United Kingdom in all sorts of ways.
Personally I'd prefer they just pass the second referendum amendment than one of two possibilities:
1 the amendment really does approve the deal subject to legislation, in which case why not just approve, since parliament has the numbers to force the legislation if Boris plays silly buggers, or
2 the amendment does what it says and witholds support, meaning the whole debate is just pushed into next week.
Nothing will change that, you just have to live with it.
My downbeat mood of this morning has been improved by the coming of the Letwin Amendment and we must all hope it passes and the WA can be properly taken through the legislative process with appropriate scrutiny.
I'm quite certain the EU will take all us in their stride and offer a technical extension to allow proper scrutiny of the WA to take place.
I cannot believe people were prepared to buy into any old snake oil put up by Johnson just as an excuse to "get Brexit over with". Anyone with half a brain will realise this is, to paraphrase Churchill, not the end or even the beginning of the end. We have the PD to resolve and I'm not entirely convinced for all his weasel words Johnson wouldn't take us out without an FTA on 31/12/20 if he could and especially if he is backed by a GE majority.
The early polls are contradictory but I expect to see YoiGov showing the Conservatives at 40% on Sunday evening.
Use both sides of the paper.
If you can.
First Grieve wants a meaningful vote, and so passes an amendment to secure it. Then Letwin decides it shouldn’t in fact be meaningful at all.
Make your mind up, Remainers, do you want to be meaningful or not?
This is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick on the doorsteps.
And Grieve is also a supporter of ramming legislation through in a day if needs be, so he doesn't care about proper scrutiny in all situations.
But if Alistair is right then Grieve is now a facilitator for leaving.
Some amendments add to a motion this replaces most of the motion .
It might be he pulls this in the morning if the government finds a way to alleviate concerns .
There is zero trust on either side. The Letwin amendment is necessary.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/will-jared-o-mara-vote-for-boris-johnson-deal-1-6330856
Work it out for yourself.
https://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1185238071735996416
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1185255941509451777?s=21
"Hong Kong protesters in UK say they face pro-Beijing intimidation
Police have had to intervene and separate groups at events in university cities"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/18/hong-kong-protesters-uk-pro-beijing-intimidation
I urge fellow posters to look at the amendment, it clearly removes that approval .
Anyway, if I were a Leaver and I was peeling back the foil from the champagne bottles, I'd be furious too.
But stop a moment. This is a really vital piece of legislation that will affect this country for generations. Taking an extra fortnight or two in order properly to scrutinise it is absolutely right and proper.