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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election
Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners need to understand the rules.
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He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Brexit.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbors,
And say "To-morrow is the anniversary of the MV."
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say "These wounds I had on MV day."
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Boris the King, Gove and the Moggster,
Flint and Kinnock, Rory and Clarke-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And the anniversary of the MV shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in Derry now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon MV day.
Sadly they still haven't realised it....
The weariness with which the public express their desire to 'get Brexit done' combined with a desire amongst Labour Leave MPs, who are generally also moderates, to keep their seats in the next election, means Brexit will pass before the end of the month, or soon after. I'm not entirely sure we're likely to have an election before spring next year....
The Letwin amendment is an abomination. I truly hope it is rejected on the basis that it wrecks the whole purpose of the main motion. But suspect it won't be....
I am no longer active in any of the Brexit markets, being too busy recently to follow closely developments. This experience makes me deeply sceptical of any of the polls.
"the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown,"
A resolution amended by the Letwin amendment will not meet that criteria which means that a decision has once again been avoided. That is unacceptable and defeats the purpose of this special meeting.
We're not there yet.
The difficulties for the govt with Letwin it seems are 1) It may make the PMs do or die pledge fail, but only technically by a few days, no big deal 2) give time for the ERG to get angry and withdraw their support, possible but unlikely.
Whats the big deal?
It seems like Johnson's deal is both better than May's in that it includes an element of consent for Northern Ireland. But it's also worse, in that it effectively makes the temporary backstop permanent, and that it makes concessions designed to make a (frankly unlikely) UK-US FTA happen quicker.
Despite my misgivings, I'd vote for it.
But it appears that... Well... I don't really understand. What is going on?
Joyous relief in Northern Ireland.
That motion will no longer approve the deal.
Their Wil be carnage on the Betfair market. Far, far worse than the May exit date debacle.
That it is obvious that Letwin backs the deal, as will many others who back the amendment isn’t enough.
As David’s excellent header points out, reluctant backers of the deal are understandably unwilling to give Johnson a blank slate, particularly if it leaves open the possibility of No Deal. And Johnson doesn’t want anything less.
And why is Letwin going around saying it supports the Deal, when clearly it does not?
They dont want Boris to have a "win".
Either way we have yet another mess. Really best avoided.
Mr. JS, that's my suspicion too.
This Parliament should be called the Indecisive Parliament. Or the Faffing About Parliament.
The EU never liked the UK wide backstop . Checks at ports and airports are much less intrusive , I really don’t see any other solution . I wanted the UK to remain but I’d take the deal now . Not sure what’s going to happen with the Letwin Amendment though , there’s still a chance that might be pulled , it’s trying to be all things to all people .
I can understand there’s no trust between the ERG and the Tory rebels . I certainly don’t want to risk a no deal if they start playing games .
Perhaps the government might find a creative solution to assuage those concerns and put something forward to allow the amendment to be pulled .
The numbers are not there though for Boris to survive a VONC however as the DUP will now vote his Government down over their opposition to the terms of his Deal for NI.
Which also means likely a December general election
I prefer his view given it was Trimble who did the hard work for peace on the Unionist side in NI not the DUP who attacked him at every turn for betrayal, sound familiar?
Plus the UUP has historically been the sister party of the Tories, if the DUP now want to be the sister party of the Brexit Party after Paisley spoke at their rally yesterday that is up to them
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1185143273565966336?s=20
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1185267521647198208?s=20
However, it is surely right that MPs, media, and the public actually have some time to consider the detail of Boris’s Deal.
Otherwise you are basically just saying that Boris’s ego is paramount.
The Letwin amendment in its own words withholds approval of the Boris deal which is now the central point of his government. He could not be blamed if he tells the HOC today that if Letwin passes he will resign on Monday and advise the Queen to invite the LOTO to try and form a government.
So just means some close seats may not see a final result for days after election night
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1185454634028228610
The Tories have spent the best part of three and a half years negotiating it with themselves, it's not unreasonable for the people who are supposed to be scrutinizing it to ask for a couple of weeks.
Am I missing something ! On what planet can this be seen to approve the deal .
I totally understand that MPs are concerned about passing the deal then the ERG playing games when it gets to the WAIB .
The concern for the government is that a majority today might not be there in a few days or weeks . And of course there will be more time for MPs to add on amendments .
I’d like to see a way of definitely stopping a no deal by accident and don’t trust the ERG but not sure what you do . Because the only legally binding thing to do that at the moment is the Benn Act staying in place for a while longer .
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185273048351543297?s=20
And I’m sure the Tory MP John Barons comments will come back to haunt the government .
Machines and computers do not go on strike
No doubt if Letwin had wanted to say that explicitly he would have done. No doubt the reason he didn't was that he quite rightly doesn't trust Boris Johnson an inch, and was afraid that people like you would pop up and say that the Benn Act didn't apply because saying you will approve something in the future is tantamount to approving it now.
Despite the endless whining about this, the only practical effect is to trigger the Benn Act. Implementing the agreement can go ahead precisely as it would have done without the amendment, except that (if there is a majority for the deal) the meaningful vote will be done at the end of the process rather than the beginning.
Johnson will be legally obliged to request an extension, but of course the EU is at liberty to delay its answer until it's clear whether the WAIB is likely to pass. Even if they do offer an extension, if the legislation has been passed by the deadline we'll leave the EU this month. (If the legislation isn't passed by the deadline, all the sane ones among us will be fervently thanking Oliver Letwin for his foresight!)
I think to be honest the whole thing has been rushed , I also blame the EU here in trying to railroad MPs into voting something through with so little time to scrutinize the legislation. Everything really goes back to Johnson’s pledge , he’s obsessed with it , I really don’t think it’s a big deal for a couple of extra weeks .
So it could well happen, given the Parliament we have.
As I said it would have been better if it had been possible to amend the Benn Act but that would require primary legislation for which there is not time.
I cannot for the life of me see why people are making so much fuss about the Letwin amendment. If there is a majority for the deal, we shall be leaving the EU very soon. Perhaps by 31 October, perhaps a week or two later.
If there isn't a majority but if - as people seem to think - Johnson essentially has the support of his whole party, then we need to have an election first and I think he will win it decisively, and then we shall leave soon after the election. (I say that as someone who really doesn't want Johnson to win an election!)
I don't see how the ERG can force a no deal here. What would happen is that we would be committed to leaving on the WA. Which obviously sticks in the craw of many remainers.
Looks as if most of the conservative party and independent conservative mps have come together and it is going to be a close vote. However, if the numbers are there why would those mps vote to wreck it with Letwin
Of course, if presented together that would split the Leave vote. And if multi-stage, there'll be arguments about how that works too.
I do not agree with much Dominic says but on this he is spot on and it just demonstrates that any referendum with not be a walk in the park but it has to be honest
They should have listened to a few Irishmen: “You can’t trust the Brits.
Heart of stone .....
Or is he, on the most important vote since.... well March I suppose... still dicking around in Liverpool?
1 do you wish to leave the EU
yes or no
2 if there is a majority vote for leave then do you wish to
Leave with the negotiated deal or
Leave with no deal