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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a little bit of history repeating?
Who'd make best Prime Minister?
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https://twitter.com/mediaguardian/status/1185752381650157569?s=20
Isn't it usually This time it will be different?
Boris' performance in the house yesterday was his best yet (admittedly vs a low bar) so perhaps he's got some of his mojo back? Corbyn by contrast seems bored and uninterested.
Of course a lot will depend on the circumstances under which the GE is fought - as was pointed out yesterday, there appear to be votes in the HoC for both the WIA and a VONC.
Then there's the electorate.
"Thank you Boris for delivering Brexit, here's a stonking majority" or
"Thank you Boris for delivering Brexit it's bored us to tears, time to let the other chap have a go."
Either are perfectly possible.
Boris will be quite shameless about nicking the popular bits of Labour policies, leaving them with a pile of class war shite.....
All these delaying tactics are all fine and good but they can't hide from the people forever
Where the Remainers have got it wrong is misjudging Boris. To their surprise, Boris has got on really well with the EU leaders. He is making all the right noises that he is a fervent European who will be a good team player - just outside the structures of the EU. The Remainers have been dripping poison in the EU's ears, about how Brexit Britain will be an existential threat to them, and they must take all measures to stop our leaving. Except, with Boris, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris has been trying his hardest to meet the EU's original extended deadline. I suspect that having now got the measure of the man, they will be much more inclined to help him out with peeling the Remainers' fingers off the Brexit doorframe....
I agree with the header. We simply don't know when the election will be or what will happen in the meantime. I am not investing in this market yet.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1185790773347926016?s=20
And I agree with Mr Mark @6.21. Boris, it appears does get on well with people, for a while anyway. Never met him myself, but it appears he's a very pleasant chap with whom to socialise. Didn't someone on here, a while ago, attest to that?
The trouble is, he's also an untrustworthy, a liar, and as his unsigned letter demonstrates, capable of very childish behaviour when annoyed.
Your statement over the content of the deal is certainly opinion based. There are parts of the deal that are different, as illustrated by David Trimble supporting the deal.
EU leaders are politicians. They spend large chunks of their time having to cope with random politicians from their home legislatures trying to cause them trouble. They probably have far more sympathy with May/Johnson’s position than Parliament think. And from the start they have known that any deal also has had to get through the EU Parliament.
We could also ally with somewhere like Ukraine, who have plentiful surplus foodstuffs yet struggle to export to the EU because of high CAP tariffs.
Where I am in the Middle East, food is considerably cheaper than in the U.K., despite the vast majority of it being imported. The reason is high EU CAP tariffs vs low tariffs here. Why would we want to make food more expensive?
And no, I'm not suggesting any similarities between the two men with regard to policies.
But it's a fair point.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/ukraine-model-brexit-dissociation-just-association
The UAE keeps prices down by directly investing in farmland abroad and bypassing the market.
https://gulfnews.com/business/investing-abroad-to-secure-food-at-home-1.773464
Hope the Welsh and Japanese win today.
Cannot stand the Welsh rugby fans.
Decades of abuse from them and telling me where I shove the sweet chariot means we Nigels have to support whoever Wales play.
The fact that 84% voted for "pro-Brexit parties" does not mean that 84% were supportive of Brexit. As an example my constituency is a "strong remain" constituency, and the Labour candidate won comfortably.
Even Labour voters I know abhor Corbyn.. I don't think there is any doubt who would be worse unless you are one eyed so to speak.
London too obviously
NOM 4/5
Con Maj 6/4
Lab Maj 14/1
Any other party Maj 50/1
More generally, in reply to Felix and others, the polls are unambiguous that both Johnson and Corbyn are unpopular, Corbyn much more, though as TSE says not by as much as compared with May. There's a view that the electorate have now made up their minds about him, but a lot of voters seem to me profoundly unsure about even the most basic assumptions now. I suspect TSE is wise to stay out of the market, unless one puts a bet on just for fun. All of us would be frankly unwise to gloat in advance.
Firstly any UK FTA will come with strong level playing field commitments, so why take less access for the same commitments?
Secondly an FTA will impose barriers to trade with our by far most important trading partner, compared with the status quo, without bringing benefits for third country trade. There are powerful business lobbies who don't want to lose trade.
Thirdly FTAs take many years to negotiate and have uncertain outcomes. People are supposedly fed up with Brexit and want it done. Johnson's plan drags out the arguments forever.
An FTA comes with a lot of headwinds. Given that and the non-viability of No Deal, noting the problems a divergent GB causes for Northern Ireland, but assuming staying in the EU is not an option, and given half, or maybe more than half now, of the population don't actually want to leave the EU, the only other option is some version of the Vassal State.
I think that's where we will end up.
No 1/12
Yes 6/1
The media seem to be intent on whipping up some hysteria over the lack of a signature and the second letter .
It’s like they haven’t had enough drama over the last few weeks .
https://twitter.com/Amreen__Rizvi/status/1185559010470060032?s=20
This is vital to understand where England is heading in the next 15 - 20 years. Leaving the EU is only the *start* of extraordinarily painful, expensive and energy-consuming negotiations, not the end.
I note that Tories still have their tails in the air. It’ll be back between their legs in no time and they’ll be cowering and whimpering behind the sofa, begging for forgiveness. But the giant turd they have left on the sitting room carpet of public life is going to take barrowloads of work to remove. And the dirty hounds have been scoffing vindaloo.
https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185620782015229952?s=20
Now time to get all emotional over our National Anthem ( as my late Scots Father in Law said the best in the World ) and support the lads v France
Boris is unreliable, but more like a boisterous teenager than anything malevolent.
The LDs are a one-issue party.
Mrs May was a well-meaning woman hopelessly out of her depth, and a useless hopeless campaigner so the last election campaign may not be repeated. Jeremy is more yesterday's five-day wonder so Labour are probably wise to delay an election until he's replaced.
It’s likely the opposition will start amending this , now although any future government doesn’t have to honour this it’s likely to cause problems with the ERG .
I’m shocked the media have not picked up on Steve Bakers tweet , bizarrely Laura K who retweeted it failed to understand the significance of this part of that .
“Support the legislation to completion in good faith, provided it is not spoiled by opponents of Brexit”.
I would at this point hope for not too many dramas but nothing’s over till it’s over !
Onto the DUP who are now on the war path . No amount of money from the government is going to make a blind bit of difference and their votes are now crucial as regards to any possible amendments.
As long as any amendments are cross party and not just Labour ones the DUP could prove very troublesome over the next few weeks.
They’ve already said they’re going to vote against the second reading of the WAIB .
I'd also question how many people with concerns over Trump and Brexit would name communist China as a model of how best to handle social tensions and protest.
Nothing is inexorable. Organised religion (sadly) is on the wane. People are (as they are right to be) self interested. Being part of British Hong Kong makes sense.
It seems he has the votes next week. But does he? Even though I'm fairly sure he does, past performance suggests he will somehow contrive the opposite.
Counsel for the petitioners (Aiden O'Neill once again) will no doubt want to make representations on that too. Whether the Court ultimately concludes anything needs to be done is a different question. Despite the letter not being signed I think that there has been substantial compliance and it is likely that will be the end of the matter but counsel for the PM may have a difficult morning.
Edit tariffs on produce that comes from the EU now but isn't produced in the UK like winter vegetables aren't high enough for the UK source them from elsewhere. We will still source from the EU for that produce.
AIUI Michael Gove did some good work on this while he was at DEFRA - the key is to support smaller high-quality and organic farms, discourage polluting factory and industrial farming by moving subsidies from production to land management, and most importantly reducing the officious paperwork that causes farmers so many problems. Oh, and work hard on international trade, both with key allies and at the WTO to reduce tariffs.
Now 10 - 12
1. The flexibility to hit a self-imposed deadline.
2. The ability to identify what is most important to his core, ERG, support.
This indicates a willingness to agree to a minimalist Canada-style FTA, accepting in large part whatever draft the EU have sat ready in a drawer.
There will be some concessions that he might fight hard to avoid making. On fisheries, for example. It's possible Scottish fishermen will be the next DUP, though.
Yesterday I watched 3 of his oldest and most supportive colleagues, John McDonnell, Emily Thornberry and Diane Abbot on stage calling for a #peoplesvote.
It seems to me that voting down a deal and then trying to block a general election will go down extremely badly with the public. I'm not even sure Corbyn would want to do it.