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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

Clause 30 of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. What happens if the Government doesn’t propose an extension? Parliament would have no say and we would exit the transition period on the 31 Dec 2020 even if a trade agreement hadn’t been reached by then with the EU; ie no deal. pic.twitter.com/mbCAsrX0eB

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PeterMannion

Whatever,

ReggieCide

whenever

RobD

Whoever

kle4

Whyever?

ReggieCide

unanimity?

ozymandias

However.......

RobD

Whatsoever!

Freggles

Trevor?

ReggieCide

God forbid - forever

david_herdson

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Pulpstar

Theresa May was also NOWHERE near getting a majority for her deal

ReggieCide

someone had to I suppose

Pulpstar

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

ReggieCide

I'm certainly no fan of BJ but "nothing's moving" is certainly more interesting now than under TM.

ozymandias

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

Next up will be some highly informative opinion from Owen Jones on why it’s no good.

ReggieCide

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

I was wondering about his motivation - who trusts Benn?

RobD

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.

Pulpstar

Also the opposition outnumbers the Gov't - even if you include the ex Tories in the Gov't numbers. They should stick in another PM if they don't like the WAIB and negotiate their own bloody deal or revoke or whatever

ReggieCide

ozymandias said:

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

Next up will be some highly informative opinion from Owen Jones on why it’s no good.

What opinion from OJ could possibly tell us anything we didn't already know about him. It's well known he's an arse wipe.

nico67

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

RobD

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

ozymandias

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.

Election you say? What’s that? Is that when a new government can be formed which can
make any changes if they have a majority of MP’s? Hmmm. Sounds like an exotic mechanism.

Beibheirli_C

david_herdson said:

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?

AndyJS

Canada election night show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYrY_945co0

ReggieCide

Pulpstar said:

Also the opposition outnumbers the Gov't - even if you include the ex Tories in the Gov't numbers. They should stick in another PM if they don't like the WAIB and negotiate their own bloody deal or revoke or whatever

That'll never catch on in the Commons

ReggieCide

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.

ReggieCide

ozymandias said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that !

I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.

Election you say? What’s that? Is that when a new government can be formed which can
make any changes if they have a majority of MP’s? Hmmm. Sounds like an exotic mechanism.

old fashioned but hardly exotic

philiph

Just for fun:

Why is it Johnsons date?

T May - she got the extension to 31/10
EU - They extended to 31/10

Johnson said get it done by the date that is in the legislation, you could justifiably take his stance to mean "I will bust a gut to comply with the current law and get Brexit over the line by 31/10."

In reality that was the only responsible action, as a further extension was not a certainty. (And still isn't if the Dicks keep Dicking around.)

ozymandias

ReggieCide said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.

It would probably suit the DUP more to be martyrs. Gives them a reason for existing.

ReggieCide

Beibheirli_C said:

david_herdson said:

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?

Through Irish eyes, probably?

nico67

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

RobD

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.

Beibheirli_C

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

david_herdson said:

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?

Through Irish eyes, probably?

Yes. Why not?

ReggieCide

philiph said:

Just for fun:

Why is it Johnsons date?

T May - she got the extension to 31/10
EU - They extended to 31/10

Johnson said get it done by the date that is in the legislation, you could justifiably take his stance to mean "I will bust a gut to comply with the current law and get Brexit over the line by 31/10."

In reality that was the only responsible action, as a further extension was not a certainty. (And still isn't if the Dicks keep Dicking around.)

That seems sensible - no need to duck

kle4

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.

philiph

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

I'm out of date on Irish politics.

Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.

williamglenn

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696

Beibheirli_C

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

kle4

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Have they actually said that or just that a CU is unacceptable? Because they're not the same thing.

Vote for CU and maybe Boris pulls the bill maybe he doesnt. If he doesnt it wont pass anyway as ERG will flip and DUP and others still vote to down. And if it still looks like passing VONC. DUP are the heroes of remain, temporarily, and dont get a CU from backing it.

Pulpstar

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

DoubleCarpet

Canada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYrY_945co0

First polls close at midnight UK time in Newfoundland, Quebec/Ontario at 2.30 am UK

Thanks!

DC

ReggieCide

ozymandias said:

ReggieCide said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.

It would probably suit the DUP more to be martyrs. Gives them a reason for existing.

I can't see the sense behind playing to the home crowd when you're playing the actual game away. I think the DUP is actually a very savvy organisation - NI is in play without British political support.

nico67

RobD said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.

That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

AndyJS

I don't think any deal is ever going to be acceptable to a majority of people and/or MPs. So it's going to eventually come down to Remain or No Deal, but that probably won't happen for a while.

Beibheirli_C

philiph said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

I'm out of date on Irish politics.

Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.

The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.

ozymandias

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Haven’t the SNP indicated they’re up for allowing an election?

ReggieCide

Beibheirli_C said:

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

david_herdson said:

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?

Through Irish eyes, probably?

Yes. Why not?

I can quite see why.

Beibheirli_C

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

david_herdson said:

Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?

Through Irish eyes, probably?

Yes. Why not?

I can quite see why.

AndyJS

Tonight is a very exciting night because it's election night. In Canada on this occasion.

Beibheirli_C

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?

philiph

Beibheirli_C said:

philiph said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

I'm out of date on Irish politics.

Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.

The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.

I seem to remember the demise of the UUP was another of those rapid extinctions of a dominant political party.

Add to Labour in Scotland as an example of how quickly change can come.

Supporters who think it can't happen here need to wake up.

Drutt

Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira?

On topic, the opposition would always find some other reason to delay. Against a minority Govt they refuse to VONC, "we don't have confidence the government will do xyz"is a pretty weak one.

Richard_Tyndall

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

ReggieCide

kle4 said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.

Tactically I reckon he figures that closing a deal is a big win and being seen as having been prevented from closing a deal by those bastard Remainers is a not so big win

kle4

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696

I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?

Pulpstar

Trudeau to win and do a banana boat rendition at his victory rally.

kle4

Drutt said:

Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira?

No.

Not out loud anyway.

Beibheirli_C

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696

I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?

You want us back on track? Remain or EEA.

Beibheirli_C

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

kle4

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.

That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

Give it a week and that'll no longer be the case.

On Canada I'd assume Trudeau will cling on in post. Be pretty embarrassing to only get 1 term.

ReggieCide

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.

That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

The DUP has to have British friends. As I've said, a difficult call tactically

kle4

Beibheirli_C said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696

I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?

You want us back on track? Remain or EEA.

I do want to remain, on balance (I remain content with a deal exit) but while they were working together for plenty of years from the outside the sectarian nature of the politics still looks ingrained.

Richard_Tyndall

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

AndyJS

Canadian election:

Liberal defences:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T-Oj-Yx7fftuz0WOwS0c7ZOR3aBJeI4HGp7-G_Nr85Y/edit#gid=0

Conservative targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gvUclj6Tz6TRkVFtfBsGcsfCuHJN6awGpwIjfFPg1Yk/edit#gid=0

NDP defences:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-i3PZE7gNVdo5cgtFGx-OIs0I5-u5JKq8okqTGXDDE/edit#gid=0

ReggieCide

Beibheirli_C said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?

Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.

edmundintokyo

kle4 said:

I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.

There's that, but also, he's currently riding on momentum from getting a deal that the ERG liked against the odds, which has marginalized Farage and any other opposition. More time will give his opponents a chance to regroup and hit him from both ends: The costs and complexities involved in dealing with the GB-NI when-is-a-border-not-a-border and the harder brexit, and various demagogue-able details that the Faragists will start circulating on facebook, which will leave right-wing voters wondering why the Daily Mail isn't telling them about them.

AndyJS

Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI

GIN1138

AndyJS said:

Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI

Has there been an exit poll?

Beibheirli_C

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?

Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.

All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.

Pulpstar

Hull, Whitby, Newmarket all seats lol

Pulpstar

What system does Canada use for their ridings - FPTP or ?

Beibheirli_C

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

GIN1138

Pulpstar said:

What system does Canada use for their ridings - FPTP or ?

Pretty sure they use FPTP.

edmundintokyo

kle4 said:

I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?

Sure they can, just stay in the EU and wait 80 years.

GIN1138

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Richard_Tyndall

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

Pulpstar

These early voting numbers are hilariously low in the Canadian election. Sparse areas !

Cyclefree

GIN1138 said:

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

Pulpstar

Cyclefree said:

GIN1138 said:

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

Not up to Labour if the SNP agree to it "notwithstanding" the FTPA.

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Europe is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

ReggieCide

Beibheirli_C said:

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?

Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.

All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.

I suspect some wishful thinking in there. Nevertheless, thank you.

GIN1138

Cyclefree said:

GIN1138 said:

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

I guess if the government lose the timetable for this then a 31st October Brexit is gone and at that point there's no reason not to have an extension long enough to cover a general election?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI

Has there been an exit poll?

Pretty sure there's no public exit polling in Canada.

TheValiant

Drutt said:

Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira

Yes.

Beibheirli_C

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.

ReggieCide

GIN1138 said:

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Believe it when I see it

Beibheirli_C

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

ReggieCide said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?

Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.

All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.

I suspect some wishful thinking in there. Nevertheless, thank you.

Thank you. I think their backs might be to the wall before they make that choice, but Johnson is beyond the pale.

RobD

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.

And the walls surrounding the EU don’t count?

AndyJS

No exit poll AFAIK.

This is going to be a real nail-biter. Polls put the parties neck-and-neck.

Beibheirli_C

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.

And the walls surrounding the EU don’t count?

They will count when we put ourselves outside them.

Pulpstar

Isn't this Trudeuax majority vs Trudeaux minority (With NDP) ?

GIN1138

Also Nick Watt was saying Labout thinks the numbers are moving away from them on a second referendum.

If that aveune is closed then the PLP have no other avenues to stop Brexit other than winning a general election and replacing the government?

ReggieCide

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

From an English perspective, I believe the Irish have always been a pain in the bum (the obverse is I'm sure also true). I'm sure the DUP is on top of this.

AndyJS

Official results page:

https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e

ReggieCide

Cyclefree said:

GIN1138 said:

Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

I think BJ would go for an election whenever he was allowed to.

Beibheirli_C

Goodnight from the Emerald Isle

TheValiant

Am I right in thinking that the only solutions which don't breach the Belfast agreement are either:

EEA + CU (And it should be EEA - I would suggest the UK joins EFTA to give more power to that organisation); or
EEA + FTA (very comprehensive)

Further, that any FTA between the UK and EU could actually be written very quickly in terms of physical goods (I know people say it would take a decade or more to negotiate, but that's only because those jobs for the boys won't create themselves).

The FTA needs to cover all physical goods, and have no tariffs applied on either side (non-physical stuff, like services, could be negotiated later) but broadly to me, that the only way to get a seamless border in NI.

Is there any other way?

ReggieCide

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Beibheirli_C said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.

Definitely time for a Border Poll.

That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.

Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.

No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.

You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.

Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.

The EU is one big fortress

AndyJS

So far there's been a 20% swing in the popular vote from Liberal to Conservative in Newfoundland and Labrador. But that's only with about 15% counted.

Last time it was 65% to 10%. Currently running at 51% to 35%.

PaulM

Beibheirli_C said:

philiph said:

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

A martyr election might suit him .

One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.

Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

I'm out of date on Irish politics.

Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.

The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.

Interesting situation the DUP are in re their MPs. They really are at a high water mark - there's only Herman's seat in South Down that could be considered a target for them. (SF's majority in F&ST is tight, but the DUP typically don't stand there and let the UUP or Independents try to get it)

Of their own seats they are probably already in big trouble in pro remain South Belfast, and might need a strong turnout to hold Belfast North (vs SF) and Belfast East (from the Alliance). The social conservative part of their base will have just seen abortion and gay marriage made legal in NI, so the last thing they need is to dissilusion the "No Surrender" wing. Hence the rally round the fleg.