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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more ga
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The loss of DUP support means Johnson needs to make 10 more gains from LAB to stay at Number 10
The most significant, though, hardly surprising development during Saturday’s special Brexit debate was that the DUP with its ten MPs has totally switched to opposing the government. It is hard to see how that can be changed certainly by the current PM.
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And we shall probably find out as the DUP bring him down in a few weeks if the bill looks like passing.
5 live did a vox pop this morning from London and everyone interviewed was furious demanding the mps get this done. The following phone in mirrored the London vox pop and it did surprise me as you would expect some dissenting voices especially in London
The media highlighting Labour's furious attempts to derail the deal is just bad politics
Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax
I understand the one nation conservatives are now firmly in the Boris camp so we have the extraordinary fact that Boris has united all parts of the party and which is in fine shape for a GE
I imagined plenty of it is genuine, but also that plenty will not be The majority for the bill will probably be gone by next week, best case scenario was a win by around 5-20(only seen the latter on here). Easy to chip away.
The DUP also only represent a minority of Northern Ireland voters concentrated mainly in Antrim, the polls show most Northern Ireland voters want to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as the Boris Deal does
Brexit will occur.
NI will discover they will be better off in Ireland and as part of the EU so there will be a border poll and it will be carried.
Scotland will leave as soon as possible - probably in the first Government after the Tories lose power.
As for the Tories getting a majority in the next election - nope, once we've left politics will move on and Boris's "success" won't carry to an election.
I am looking forward to Bill Cash having to vote to unrepeal the European Communities Act.
We cannot continue like this.
I actually think the referendum and CU amendments will both fail but equally I don't think the Act will pass - Boris doesn't have the numbers.
However, were a referendum to be added to the Act it would pass as Labour would be both able and required to support it.
The current paralysis of government and parliament is not sustainable and will have to end soon.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
United Ireland here we come. For myself I support it.
Furthermore, the EU would need to give permission for a referendum which would need to go to Summer 2020. Furthermore you have to have a compliant majority government to get the legislation through and 22 weeks is needed to undertake the campaign
I was embroiled in a discussion last night when I suggested no deal would have to be on the ballot. The cry of dismay from remainers was predictable but never forget Farage and TBP policy is no deal and they have 29 MEPs voted for by over 5 million
https://twitter.com/Timewarp_JF/status/1186077803550248960
GET ON WITH IT
Brexit is BoZo's poll tax.
He owns it, 100%. If it happens (I think it will), he will own the subsequent fall out.
Brexit will be at least as despised as the Poll tax, and the Tories will suffer for it.
Am I correct in thinking that a referendum has to be part of primary legislation which can only be forwarded by the government of the day?
Putting it another way: for there to be a referendum requires the government to want one.
However, the numbers are not there and it is generally accepted that it will not pass
Apart from that...
The trajectory of the Canadian Liberals provides an instructive exercise as to why parties in favour of reforming the electoral system to proportional representation change their minds when in power.
NI are being annexed from the UK single market, and their costs are going to rise significantly.
You are right that it would be hypocritical of Tories to claim this is not a bad thing
Big_G_NorthWales said:
"this is the deal that stops no deal"
"It isn't, and doesn't.
Apart from that..."
This is the deal that stops us leaving without a withdrawal agreement.
BoZo has requested an extension to Article 50
https://twitter.com/Jackson_Carlaw/status/1186291218831024130?s=20
No party and I suspect most of the Tory rebels are not going to support that clause.
So once again we are in limbo but it's now certain Bozo can't be trusted.
If the EU require a technical extension then that is not a problem
You and others think that if Boris misses the 31st he will have lost but in fact, as has just been said on Sky, he has succeeded in the eyes of the public and that it is the HOC, the elite and the judiciary who are to blame.
Remainers thought Boris sending the Benn letter would humiliate him but it has not had any effect.
I do not like Cummings one little bit but he has wargamed this to perfection
That attempt at a broad church is arguably why the Conservatives have improved in Scotland, with Ruth attempting to thread that same needle (which she couldn't continue under Johnson). They became the acceptable unionist party of Scotland because of that; it wasn't just Labour losing the left to the SNP as the LDs and Lab lost their centres to the Tories.
Johnson and Co do not sell this. Patel's hang em and flog em attitude may make some typical Labour voters happy, but I doubt it will win them votes, especially in Scotland. JRM is just... unsatirisable. Gove, Raab, Leadsom, etc. These are not people who will authentically be accepted as the face of a "modern" Conservative party.
Laissez-faire unionism kept the UK happy. A "positive" view of the Union is usually one that ignores many of the things England did to make and keep that Union together which the other members dislike. That is more risible to some than a general attitude of "if it ain't broke". Now the Union is faced with untenable tension, and something will have to give.
Ok - you`re probably right - so what then?
EU haven`t yet granted an extension. If they don`t grant one MPs will have, in effect, voted for No Deal.
If the EU does grant an extension to 31/1 then we`ll be having the same conversations in 3 months` time.
As Mike says, Tory voters feel strongly about Brexit. That's very likely to keep 30%+ in the Tory column. With a Brexit party to squeeze (check out the preferred PM figures), and a Labour leader to lampoon, there's a good chance of that pushing up to 35% and a possibility of hitting 40%.
By contrast, the most remarkable feature of a year of extraordinary polling movements has been Labour's loss of at least two-fifths of their vote. Their highest vote share this year was 41%. They're now trundling along in the mid-20s.
If those are the election results then there'll be a *lot* of Con gains in the Midlands, North, Wales and less prosperous southern towns. After all, if the Tories underperform in some seats where there's a strong LD or SNP showing, that means they must overperform elsewhere. (Although note that there's a huge, if probably largely notional, Con-LD swing anyway which would always make itself felt in Con-LD marginals).
Mike's right that the Tories have no parliamentary friends left, which is an entirely unsurprising Classic Dom. But the other thing that's Classic Dom is that he does tend to win public votes.
All but three of them are now firmly behind Boris so why would I not be happy to see my party unite
Secondly, if there isn't an election by the end of 2020, this dead parliament will have crumbled into irrelevant dust. Labour will be in power after an election, won't they and be able to use their expert negotiation skills to get a great deal!
Seems like one of the easiest amendments to pass would be something saying the transition period should be immediately extended to 2021/2022. That could get a lot of cross party support. This parliament does love asking for more time after all
There are enough who want this over from leave seats and who have had a really bad reaction from their constituents
It has gone beyond reason and you can argue that is wrong but it is public opinion that is driving this now
Boris needs to keep this bill in Parliament as if he doesn't he will have no one to blame - and as with everything to do with Brexit the only game in town is ensuring someone else can be blamed for the result.
I think the Remainer's plan of continually thwarting Brexit is likely to end up with a harder Brexit in the long run.
Remainers (like the DUP) would have been better advised to vote for May's deal.
The problem with waiting for your Unicorn deal is that the animal is mythological.
After that it's downhill all the way for the Tories as they grapple with trying to delivering any benefits from Brexit (spaffing money around will only take you so far if the economy is not doing well) , trying to negotiate an FTA with the the ERG being as obnoxious as ever and a new Labour leader possibly removing the obstacle to many people voting Labour
Please can you explain where this mythical GE is coming from?
The system May designed is a farce. Why should EU residents living here have to have a record of every trip out of the country they ever made when that wasn't a requirement when they made it? And all the other farces.
System should be much simpler.
Question 1: Are you an EU citizen.
Question 2: Do you live here?
Here is your Settled Status.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/opinion/the-brexit-undertones-of-the-eus-impending-anti-tax-avoidance-legislation/21/06/#.XWvKjv1V_fo.twitter
For most leavers, every possible hurdle must be used to ensure everyone they don't know can't stay in the UK.
Sorry to be blunt but that is the attitude of every leaver I know. It's always we don't want you here but Patel who runs the corner shop and Marius who helps in are lovely why do they have to leave.
Do we have a rough timetable for today's popcorn consumption?
And if you're a democrat then revoke isn't an option . . . oh I see.
As an aside from what I've heard retail sales have fallen off the cliff in the past month.
Leavers voted if anything migration-related to be able to control future migration, not to eject anyone already living here.
To an extent it would actually help the Tories as it means Boris can campaign for a sane leave plan without the baggage of his deal to campaign on.
The idea that the DUP would ever have backed May's deal, is a fantasy which contributed to her failed strategy.
Remainers like the DUP... LOL.