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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn,

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

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  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited October 2019
    First? Unlike Boris's Bill?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Second
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    I thought it was the other way round, Corbyn wants an election now, McDonnell and others don't.
  • Everyone is hoping Comrade Corbyn fins his brain cell first.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Now that would be a politician cynically delaying Brexit.....

    In my view the magic date of 31 Oct is MASSIVE for Johnson. He has made it totemic, therefore it has - rightly - become so for the opposition too. The timetable vote is one which Johnson must not be allowed to win. If he does, people are on the pitch and it's all over - it's all over completely on his terms. An unqualified political triumph following which a Con majority in a GE is verging on slam dunk.

    Never never never.
    I think it would have been had he not got a deal and we were staying in the EU with no sense of the road forward. But two things have helped him since then. He has a deal supported by Leavers, and Farage, stupidly, came out in support of an extension.

    From the perspective of Leavers, Boris is the only one fighting to come out of the EU on time and did everything feasibly asked of him, against all odds. Now it is parliamemt who they will blame, people who insisted we delay due to a deal, but are now delaying using procedurally trickery even though we have a deal.
    And can these people get a million and half bodies on the street?
    No, but they can get 14 odd million unified and voting in a general election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    Government to pull Brexit bill if timetable vote lost - BBC

    The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg understands the government will abandon efforts to get its Brexit deal legislation through if MPs vote against the timetable this evening.

    If the EU the offers a delay, as is expected, the government will try to push straight for a general election and would not put any more legislation through, essentially going on strike, she says.
  • FPT still trying to understand why post-Benn Act the much discussed Clause 30 matters?
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax

    This is exactly backwards

    Brexit is BoZo's poll tax.

    He owns it, 100%. If it happens (I think it will), he will own the subsequent fall out.

    Brexit will be at least as despised as the Poll tax, and the Tories will suffer for it.
    It may and it may not. We cannot know how this pans out but we must leave and this is the deal that stops no deal
    Apart from Clause 30.

    You are not over the detail on this blinded by your Tory love.

    To me that Clause if not amended makes a Tory No Deal almost certain at the end of 2020.

    I keep asking this question but keep getting ignored. Clause 30 seems little different to clause 50(3) in operation.

    If in the future Parliament doesn't wish us to leave without an extension then what prevents Parliament from passing a future Benn Act to demand an extension?

    And if in the future Parliament doesn't want to demand an extension then Clause 30 is moot.

    So what's the big deal?
    The risk is that the Benn-Burt Act cane about because Parliament was able to control the agenda. There are lots of reasons - election, new Speaker, Tory unity - why this may not be possible in future
    Speaker could be a change although I suspect if we ended up in similar situation then a future Speaker will folow Bercow's precedent since the precedent has now been set.

    But for elections and Tory unity it seems a moot point. If a future election or Tory unity means that there's a majority against an enforced extension then that will exist regardess of Clause 30 or a vote being scheduled. If in future there's a majority for Parliament enforcing an extension onto the executive then that too will exist regardless of Clause 30.

    What matter surely is the numbers in Parliament not Clause 30. And if the numbers match now an extension will be enforced, if the numbers aren't there to force an extension they won't be there either way [though I highly doubt the executive would seek to not extend if negotiations are still ongoing and would only seek not to if talks have broken down].
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    I am wondering whether McD has plans to oust Corbo. These internal rumblings with Milne and Murphy point to something going on.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    What's the earliest we can have an election (in theory) now? Would be almost winter.

    Not going to happen in 2019 IMO.
  • I am wondering whether McD has plans to oust Corbo. These internal rumblings with Milne and Murphy point to something going on.

    He has been defacto leader for weeks now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    I am wondering whether McD has plans to oust Corbo. These internal rumblings with Milne and Murphy point to something going on.

    He has been defacto leader for weeks now.
    Indeed so.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Government to pull Brexit bill if timetable vote lost - BBC

    The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg understands the government will abandon efforts to get its Brexit deal legislation through if MPs vote against the timetable this evening.

    If the EU the offers a delay, as is expected, the government will try to push straight for a general election and would not put any more legislation through, essentially going on strike, she says.

    So... "Pass my bill without understanding it or I will take it away and cry"?

    It is a government of children, not adults...
  • On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    It's been quite daft to see Corbyn go from demanding a General Election to oust an "unelected Prime Minister," (whatever that is), who is "without a mandate," (which differs from which Prime Minister?), to turning down a General Election and begging to be made caretaker PM. I don't see how any of this is bad for Boris.
  • I am wondering whether McD has plans to oust Corbo. These internal rumblings with Milne and Murphy point to something going on.

    The trouble is though that it takes too long. Even if Corbyn were to want to resign, he's effectively stuck because Labour can't afford not to have a leader in place in current circumstances. (This is why it really is a bad idea to have party members choose leaders - much better to let MPs alone do it, because they can do it quickly).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    We have to remember that Corbyn agreed to an election in 2017 when Labour were further behind in the polls than now, and they ended up gaining seats. So it's a mistake to look to the polls when trying to work out when he will agree to an election.

    What's different now is the imminent prospect of a No Deal departure. Once that passes, either because we have a long extension, or we have left the EU, then Corbyn will agree to an election.

    It will be his chance to beat the Tories and it's the best way to silence his internal critics and to use the logic of FPTP to squeeze the Lib Dems.

    Of course, I'm assuming that Johnson will still be willing to risk his occupancy of Number 10 with an election. If his deal reunites his party it's just possible that he might survive a Vote of No Confidence, and he might decide to try and use time pressure to force through a free trade agreement.
  • Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Of course they do. The opposition had an excuse last time in trying to avoid a no deal cliff edge exit. The second we either extend or exit that excuse is gone and the opposition will have nowhere to hide.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Monkeys said:

    It's been quite daft to see Corbyn go from demanding a General Election to oust an "unelected Prime Minister," (whatever that is), who is "without a mandate," (which differs from which Prime Minister?), to turning down a General Election and begging to be made caretaker PM. I don't see how any of this is bad for Boris.

    Wishful thinking
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    When does Boles get voted on btw - is that after program motion and before 3rd reading ?
  • Scotland's T20 World Cup Qualifier campaign suffered another setback with an embarrassing 24-run loss to Namibia.

    Its one thing losing to japan in the rugby, but namibia!

    Quite a day for T20 international underdogs.. Jersey looking likely to beat UAE today: Jersey 147, UAE 75/3 off 13.3
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Government to pull Brexit bill if timetable vote lost - BBC

    The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg understands the government will abandon efforts to get its Brexit deal legislation through if MPs vote against the timetable this evening.

    If the EU the offers a delay, as is expected, the government will try to push straight for a general election and would not put any more legislation through, essentially going on strike, she says.

    So... "Pass my bill without understanding it or I will take it away and cry"?

    It is a government of children, not adults...
    Somebody put this overgrown schoolboy and his odious mates out to pasture.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    I am wondering whether McD has plans to oust Corbo. These internal rumblings with Milne and Murphy point to something going on.

    The trouble is though that it takes too long. Even if Corbyn were to want to resign, he's effectively stuck because Labour can't afford not to have a leader in place in current circumstances. (This is why it really is a bad idea to have party members choose leaders - much better to let MPs alone do it, because they can do it quickly).

    Agreed.
  • Do you think the Programme Motion goes through tonight or not?

    It seems to me that if the Programme Motion goes through there is a majority in the Commons to 'Get Brexit Done' by 31/10. If it doesn't, there isn't. I don't think anyone opposed to the deal has yet said they'd back the Programme Motion have they?

    Programme Motion tonight seems to be a proxy-MV.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Of course they do. The opposition had an excuse last time in trying to avoid a no deal cliff edge exit. The second we either extend or exit that excuse is gone and the opposition will have nowhere to hide.

    No, they don't. The first rule of politics is to be able to count. Your post is an exercise in hot air, not mathematics.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.

    I see we are in agreement. I expect an election on the 12th December.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I wouldn't be surprised if the government are responding to Boles, Vaizey and Hammond etc asking for further amendments to delay the bill. If they want to continue their political careers then they will be required to support Boris, or the SNP and Lib Dems help him pass a majority bill to force a General Election and the Tory rebels like Hammond who have been de-selected will be left out in the cold.

    Punchy stuff from the government and will be interested to see if this helps them get the numbers.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Of course they do. The opposition had an excuse last time in trying to avoid a no deal cliff edge exit. The second we either extend or exit that excuse is gone and the opposition will have nowhere to hide.
    LOL, the whole world and its dog knew that was an excuse because they feared they wouldn't win an election, as you rightly pointed out at the time (but wrongly argued that they would eventually have to cave in to an election anyway, to avoid being seen as "frit", just like you're arguing now).

    In any case, the "take No Deal off the table" excuse would have just as much as superficial plausibility this time as it did last time, wouldn't it? We're only talking about an extension until the end of January, maximum. That's not much time, especially with Xmas.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755

    Monkeys said:

    It's been quite daft to see Corbyn go from demanding a General Election to oust an "unelected Prime Minister," (whatever that is), who is "without a mandate," (which differs from which Prime Minister?), to turning down a General Election and begging to be made caretaker PM. I don't see how any of this is bad for Boris.

    Wishful thinking
    I don't want Boris to win. I'm SNP and an ex-Labour voter. I just think that when it comes, Labour will be eviscerated. Corbyn is the worst Labour leader in history.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.

    I see we are in agreement. I expect an election on the 12th December.
    Headmistresses nationwide say "no can do"...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Spring 2020 - that's my bet.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Not far out then. Total figures correct. Actual % without DK/DV/Refused Con 37, Lab 22, LD 19, BXP 11, Green 7.

    Separate YouGov tables from the same poll of 20/21st October also give latest Westminster VI totals for the four largest parties, allowing VI %s to be worked out before stripping out Other Parties/DK/Non Voters.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/epib6jirg7/YouGov - Brexit deals Results.pdf

    As below showing total and % including DK(with previous poll from 14/15 October in brackets: total with % both including and excluding DK/Non-Voters):

    i.e.
    Con: 439 26.0% (430, 26.5%, 37%)
    Lab: 264 15.6% (259, 15.9%, 22%)
    LD: 227 13.4% (213, 13.1%, 18%)
    BXP: 127 7.5% (131, 8.1%, 11%)

    Total 1689 100% (1625, 100%)

    Depending on how much of the balance is other parties as opposed to DK/NV, I judge that the headline VI will (if it is ever published) be something like Con 36, Lab 21.5, LD 18.5, BXP 10, Green 6

  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Your regular reminder that Corbyn is too shit to win, he knows he's too shit to win, and so prefers to deliberately keep Boris and the Tories in power rather than face defeat in an election.

    Quite the champion you've got there! :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Of course they do. The opposition had an excuse last time in trying to avoid a no deal cliff edge exit. The second we either extend or exit that excuse is gone and the opposition will have nowhere to hide.
    LOL, the whole world and its dog knew that was an excuse because they feared they wouldn't win an election, as you rightly pointed out at the time (but wrongly argued that they would eventually have to cave in to an election anyway, to avoid being seen as "frit", just like you're arguing now).

    In any case, the "take No Deal off the table" excuse would have just as much as superficial plausibility this time as it did last time, wouldn't it? We're only talking about an extension until the end of January, maximum. That's not much time, especially with Xmas.
    There's only seven weeks of the business year proper left. Time flies.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Do you think the Programme Motion goes through tonight or not?

    It seems to me that if the Programme Motion goes through there is a majority in the Commons to 'Get Brexit Done' by 31/10. If it doesn't, there isn't. I don't think anyone opposed to the deal has yet said they'd back the Programme Motion have they?

    Programme Motion tonight seems to be a proxy-MV.

    I think there are MPs who would currently vote for the Deal in a meaningful vote, or at third reading, but would prefer to have an extra month to scrutinise the legislation.

    I expect the Programme Motion to be lost, but I think Johnson would win an indicative vote on his Deal.

    That's why the government is trying to force the issue by saying they will pull the legislation if the programme motion fails. They want to persuade the swing votes to accept the timetable as a necessary part of the deal. It will be interesting to see how the swing MPs react.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    The Deer Hunter :wink:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    This may also make Jezza a bit slack on the whipping front. I mean surely at this moment in time he would prefer a Tory Brexit deal to narrowly pass than a General Election. It would be counter intuitive for his party to stop a Brexit ball passing in order to be eviscerated at an election while the Lib Dems and Tories are on such a high...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    blueblue said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Your regular reminder that Corbyn is too shit to win, he knows he's too shit to win, and so prefers to deliberately keep Boris and the Tories in power rather than face defeat in an election.

    Quite the champion you've got there! :lol:
    Basic poker strategy – wait for decent pocket cards before entering a hand.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
    Because ever since Corbyn crawled from under wherever stone he was existing and became Leader he has been calling for an Election.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.

    I see we are in agreement. I expect an election on the 12th December.
    Headmistresses nationwide say "no can do"...
    I think the 19th is not logistically possible, the 5th is, and the 12th is marginal. I don't think this will be the chief determinant of the timing, so that's why I expect the 12th.

    Johnson might even call it "glorious".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
    So have Labour accepted that as currently constituted, with current policies, they are not popular enough to win an election? Could you let me know where this has been acknowledged?
  • TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    You would thinks so, but this is to fundamentally misunderstand the functioning of Jeremy Corbyn's brain cell.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
    So have Labour accepted that as currently constituted, with current policies, they are not popular enough to win an election? Could you let me know where this has been acknowledged?
    By every single Labour supporter on PB, for starters!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    The optics of the govt pulling a Brexit bill may looks pretty bad re: siphoning off Brexit party votes.
  • Danny565 said:

    ...
    There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).

    That was a particularly entertaining example because Varadkar was effectively begging Fianna Fail to stop supporting his government under the agreement Fine Gael had with FF.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Could the Gov't put the bill "on hold" instead of pulling it completely ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    The Deer Hunter :wink:
    So it was. My memory playing tricks on me. Still a completely irrational stance from the government unless they have concluded that they really can't get anything through the current House of Commons. Which may be right, I suppose.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
    So have Labour accepted that as currently constituted, with current policies, they are not popular enough to win an election? Could you let me know where this has been acknowledged?
    By "Labour", do we mean Corbyn (who probably does, delusionally, think he would win an election now, just like he did when he was originally inclined to accept Johnson's call for an election in September) or do we mean the bulk of Labour MPs (who think they wouldn't win an election, and who therefore forced Corbyn to U-turn last time, and who would probably do the same again)?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    rkrkrk said:

    The optics of the govt pulling a Brexit bill may looks pretty bad re: siphoning off Brexit party votes.

    I considered this. I agree most would rather stick to the Oct 31st timetable than a GE (myself included) but ultimately they will get enough pointers before an election that in 95% of seats voting Tory is the best way to beat Jezza and get Brexit.

    Hopefully it won't come to that but an extension looks most likely as this point given the cowardly delaying tactics of parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Boles amendment looks like it has the numbers to me btw. It could even be helpful to the Gov't getting the bill past 3rd reading

    Who knows though !
  • DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    This bunch are capable of playing Russian Roulette with an automatic pistol.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    kinabalu said: "Spring 2020 - that's my bet."

    Mine too. Plus April-June 2020 Corbyn Leaving Date on Betfair at 5.2
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    It is the craven remainers in parliament who are responsible.

    They have it in their gift to vote for the deal, vote for R2, vote for revoke or vote for a GE.

    They won't vote for the first and are utterly terrified of the other 3 options.

    Ultimately, they can run but they can't hide.
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    They could try to invoke the Civil Contingencies Act arguing that the current Parliament is broken and that if there is no election then they will deliberately cause be faced with a most unfortunate emergency.

    Yes that would be ridiculous but little more so than the first prorogation. The Supreme Court would then have to decide between telling them how to run the country ("Stop throwing your toys out of the window", etc.) and letting them go to the people. Few would blame the judges for choosing the second option.

    As soon as they pull the WAB, Jeremy Corbyn needs to VONC. The Commons may be an "absolute shower", but the Government is far more of one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    TOPPING said:

    So have Labour accepted that as currently constituted, with current policies, they are not popular enough to win an election? Could you let me know where this has been acknowledged?

    No shame in that admission. We do not want an election against a triumphant Boris Johnson in first flush from delivering a Brexit Deal. Better to allow some time for the shine to come off. Because we all know what is lurking under there and it's not pleasant.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Pulpstar said:

    Could the Gov't put the bill "on hold" instead of pulling it completely ?

    That allows the bill to come back.

    If Boris pulls it I don't think it can come back this session which means No Deal returns as the default.

    On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.

    I see we are in agreement. I expect an election on the 12th December.
    Headmistresses nationwide say "no can do"...
    I think the 19th is not logistically possible, the 5th is, and the 12th is marginal. I don't think this will be the chief determinant of the timing, so that's why I expect the 12th.

    Johnson might even call it "glorious".
    Called tomorrow an election not via a VoNC could be on November 28th

    After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.

    Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    This bunch are capable of playing Russian Roulette with an automatic pistol.
    Well, what's the worst that could happen?

    Ah.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    It maximises the bill's chances, even if they are still not that great..

    1. It makes it very clear that by voting against the timetable MPs will effectively be voting down the agreement, so improving the chances of the timetable being approved and with it the agreement.

    2. It also keeps open Johnson's hope of getting his deal through with the help of at least one EU government, which might refuse an extension in the expectation that Johnson would then reintroduce his bill after 31st October. At that point it would be passed at the speed of light by a parliament forced to choose between Johnson's deal and a continuation of trade on default WTO terms, albeit with some emergency sticking plasters bolted on the latter.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    This bunch are capable of playing Russian Roulette with an automatic pistol.
    They are given that pulling the bill would be Boris's decision not Parliaments.

    There is nothing wrong in extending things to discuss the bill in detail except for Boris's self-imposed deadline.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    eek says: "Called tomorrow an election not via a VoNC could be on November 28th

    After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.

    Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas."

    I`ve just checked Betfair`s Next GE market and I`m surprised to see 2019 favorite ahead of 2020 (1.93 v 2.62).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Boles amendment looks like it has the numbers to me btw. It could even be helpful to the Gov't getting the bill past 3rd reading

    Who knows though !

    Which one is the Boles amendment?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    If the government pulls the WA and the EU offers an extension only with a GE.

    What happens then?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Could the Gov't put the bill "on hold" instead of pulling it completely ?

    That allows the bill to come back.

    If Boris pulls it I don't think it can come back this session which means No Deal returns as the default.

    On Topic I suspect the suggested rule that the Opposition must always agree to an election request still stands. The circumstances recently where an election was rejected under the guise of preventing no deal was unique.

    Once we have either extended or exited that line falls away. I suspect the government if we get out soon will seek to let the dust settle and get an election next Spring, but the Opposition will have nowhere to hide by claiming it was due to preventing a no deal exit anymore.

    I see we are in agreement. I expect an election on the 12th December.
    Headmistresses nationwide say "no can do"...
    I think the 19th is not logistically possible, the 5th is, and the 12th is marginal. I don't think this will be the chief determinant of the timing, so that's why I expect the 12th.

    Johnson might even call it "glorious".
    Called tomorrow an election not via a VoNC could be on November 28th

    After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.

    Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas.
    Corbyn won't agree to an election tomorrow because a long extension won't yet be in place. So I think the timing slips and we go to the 12th.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The Tories and SNP have effectively worked together to cook Labour's goose before - Indyref 1 was a good example.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019
    eek said:

    Called tomorrow an election not via a VoNC could be on November 28th

    After tomorrow i think it's the December 5th if Boris calls it or 19th if via a VoNC.

    Thanks to the 25 working day rules we rapidly enter Christmas and then rapidly hit Jan 9th due to bank holidays over Christmas.

    No election is going to be agreed by any mechanism before the EU has responded positively to the extension request and it has been formally agreed with the UK. That means that November 28th is near-impossible.

    Edit: I see that @OblitusSumMe beat me to it.
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    Of course they do. The opposition had an excuse last time in trying to avoid a no deal cliff edge exit. The second we either extend or exit that excuse is gone and the opposition will have nowhere to hide.
    LOL, the whole world and its dog knew that was an excuse because they feared they wouldn't win an election, as you rightly pointed out at the time (but wrongly argued that they would eventually have to cave in to an election anyway, to avoid being seen as "frit", just like you're arguing now).

    In any case, the "take No Deal off the table" excuse would have just as much as superficial plausibility this time as it did last time, wouldn't it? We're only talking about an extension until the end of January, maximum. That's not much time, especially with Xmas.
    They will eventually as soon as the "no deal" excuse is gone, it isn't yet. My line hasn't changed, the deadline is still currently 31/10 so there is still every reason to avoid an election before then, indeed its long since simply impossible to have one before then.

    We aren't talking about 31/01/20 maximum. Once we leave the EU we aren't talking until the end of January, the next 'cliff edge' wouldn't be until 31/12/20. And if we don't leave the EU I suspect the EU will choose a new date giving us long enough for an election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    SunnyJim said:

    DavidL said:

    The government is to pull the Brexit bill if the timetable motion is refused: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50142367

    I must say that I am struggling to follow this. If the Brexit bill is not passed then the Speaker has ruled that there can be no MV. If there is no MV then there cannot be a deal so the EU has to decide whether or not to grant an extension in those circumstances. If they decide not to we are out without a deal unless Parliament decides to revoke.

    I think the analogy is putting more bullets in the pistol before playing Russian roulette like that scene in Apocalypse now. Is this really how a responsible government behaves?

    It is the craven remainers in parliament who are responsible.

    They have it in their gift to vote for the deal, vote for R2, vote for revoke or vote for a GE.

    They won't vote for the first and are utterly terrified of the other 3 options.

    Ultimately, they can run but they can't hide.
    But this is crazy. We will either put a really complicated bill (which should have been passed more than a year ago and then been capable of being brought into force by SI but there we are) in 3 days or we will not do it at all? What's the sense in that? Why is Brexit in November so much worse than 31st October?

    As I have said the only logical conclusion is that the government has decided that if they don't ram this bill through with minimal opportunity to amend they will never get it through at all, at least not in any recognisable form. I want Brexit as much as anybody and way more than most but this is irresponsible.
  • Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories and SNP have effectively worked together to cook Labour's goose before - Indyref 1 was a good example.

    1979, also. :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    The whole point of opposition is to win an election. If an opposition thinks it won't win one (which it probably wouldn't), how is it a viable strategy to launch one unnecessarily?

    I'm honestly quite mystified why PBers have this attitude that any opposition should/will always agree to an election even if it's not at the time of their self-interest, as if we're in a machismo-dominated playground where you have to say you're "up for a fight" whenever and wherever. There's loads of parliamentary systems around the world where oppositions regularly resist "cut and run" elections when governments want to hold them at a time advantageous to them (Fianna Fail did so during Varadkar's honeymoon in Ireland).
    So have Labour accepted that as currently constituted, with current policies, they are not popular enough to win an election? Could you let me know where this has been acknowledged?
    By "Labour", do we mean Corbyn (who probably does, delusionally, think he would win an election now, just like he did when he was originally inclined to accept Johnson's call for an election in September) or do we mean the bulk of Labour MPs (who think they wouldn't win an election, and who therefore forced Corbyn to U-turn last time, and who would probably do the same again)?
    What about the membership? They are key to it all, aren't they?
  • Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
  • DavidL said:


    But this is crazy. We will either put a really complicated bill (which should have been passed more than a year ago and then been capable of being brought into force by SI but there we are) in 3 days or we will not do it at all? What's the sense in that? Why is Brexit in November so much worse than 31st October?

    As I have said the only logical conclusion is that the government has decided that if they don't ram this bill through with minimal opportunity to amend they will never get it through at all, at least not in any recognisable form. I want Brexit as much as anybody and way more than most but this is irresponsible.

    What was crazy was Boris boxing himself in to this arbitrary date. Everything else follows from that stupid blunder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories and SNP have effectively worked together to cook Labour's goose before - Indyref 1 was a good example.

    1979, also. :)
    The SNP rather cooked their own goose there too !
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    On the GE, as I understand it you need two thirds to have one. So doesn't it follow that you only need approximately 210/215 MPs to stop one ?
    Which means it doesn't matter what the LibDems and the SNP want, as Labour can control the timing, even allowing for 30 or so rebels ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    DavidL said:


    But this is crazy. We will either put a really complicated bill (which should have been passed more than a year ago and then been capable of being brought into force by SI but there we are) in 3 days or we will not do it at all? What's the sense in that? Why is Brexit in November so much worse than 31st October?

    As I have said the only logical conclusion is that the government has decided that if they don't ram this bill through with minimal opportunity to amend they will never get it through at all, at least not in any recognisable form. I want Brexit as much as anybody and way more than most but this is irresponsible.

    What was crazy was Boris boxing himself in to this arbitrary date. Everything else follows from that stupid blunder.
    The pressure has bought about the bill though.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    What was crazy was Boris boxing himself in to this arbitrary date. Everything else follows from that stupid blunder.

    It wasn't arbitrary, any other date would have been though.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited October 2019

    Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
    You expect common sense here?

    A vote of No confidence tomorrow results in an election on December 12th.

    On Thursday we probably hit December 19th (although it may be the 12th - I'm not 100% sure of the complete technicalities).

    Any later than next Wednesday and we are into Christmas week and that makes an election on January 9th very likely.

    Edit to add - I suspect MPs will want an extension confirmed before a VoNC which given the time available probably moves things all such decisions past October 31st. And once past the 31st any vote of No Confidence does result in a January election.
  • Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:


    But this is crazy. We will either put a really complicated bill (which should have been passed more than a year ago and then been capable of being brought into force by SI but there we are) in 3 days or we will not do it at all? What's the sense in that? Why is Brexit in November so much worse than 31st October?

    As I have said the only logical conclusion is that the government has decided that if they don't ram this bill through with minimal opportunity to amend they will never get it through at all, at least not in any recognisable form. I want Brexit as much as anybody and way more than most but this is irresponsible.

    What was crazy was Boris boxing himself in to this arbitrary date. Everything else follows from that stupid blunder.
    The pressure has bought about the bill though.
    In my view, the arbitrary date in question is 31 December 2020
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    eek said:

    Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
    You expect common sense here?

    A vote of No confidence tomorrow results in an election on December 12th.

    On Thursday we probably hit December 19th.

    Any later than next Wednesday and we are into Christmas week and that makes an election on January 9th very likely.
    I said weeks ago that a VoNC could happen on 4th Nov (the Monday after the 31st deadline) and lead to a Boxing Day GE and I was scorned. I still think it is possible.

    Other options include just having another stupidly long campaign, though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Is there a rough timetable for tonight?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    PaulM said:

    On the GE, as I understand it you need two thirds to have one. So doesn't it follow that you only need approximately 210/215 MPs to stop one ?
    Which means it doesn't matter what the LibDems and the SNP want, as Labour can control the timing, even allowing for 30 or so rebels ?

    One-line amendment to the FTPA.
  • timpletimple Posts: 117

    We have to remember that Corbyn agreed to an election in 2017 when Labour were further behind in the polls than now, and they ended up gaining seats. So it's a mistake to look to the polls when trying to work out when he will agree to an election.

    What's different now is the imminent prospect of a No Deal departure. Once that passes, either because we have a long extension, or we have left the EU, then Corbyn will agree to an election.

    It will be his chance to beat the Tories and it's the best way to silence his internal critics and to use the logic of FPTP to squeeze the Lib Dems.

    Of course, I'm assuming that Johnson will still be willing to risk his occupancy of Number 10 with an election. If his deal reunites his party it's just possible that he might survive a Vote of No Confidence, and he might decide to try and use time pressure to force through a free trade agreement.

    If he fails to stop Brexit happening because he allows Labour MPs to get it over the line I don't think the squeeze on LibDems will be possible. LD voters will be furious with Labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    SunnyJim said:

    PaulM said:

    On the GE, as I understand it you need two thirds to have one. So doesn't it follow that you only need approximately 210/215 MPs to stop one ?
    Which means it doesn't matter what the LibDems and the SNP want, as Labour can control the timing, even allowing for 30 or so rebels ?

    One-line amendment to the FTPA.
    You keeping saying that but how do you introduce such an act into Parliament?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    timple said:

    We have to remember that Corbyn agreed to an election in 2017 when Labour were further behind in the polls than now, and they ended up gaining seats. So it's a mistake to look to the polls when trying to work out when he will agree to an election.

    What's different now is the imminent prospect of a No Deal departure. Once that passes, either because we have a long extension, or we have left the EU, then Corbyn will agree to an election.

    It will be his chance to beat the Tories and it's the best way to silence his internal critics and to use the logic of FPTP to squeeze the Lib Dems.

    Of course, I'm assuming that Johnson will still be willing to risk his occupancy of Number 10 with an election. If his deal reunites his party it's just possible that he might survive a Vote of No Confidence, and he might decide to try and use time pressure to force through a free trade agreement.

    If he fails to stop Brexit happening because he allows Labour MPs to get it over the line I don't think the squeeze on LibDems will be possible. LD voters will be furious with Labour.
    Splits on the left? Excellent :smiley:
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:
    Good move.

    Cummings is herding remainers in to the abattoir.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    PaulM said:

    On the GE, as I understand it you need two thirds to have one. So doesn't it follow that you only need approximately 210/215 MPs to stop one ?
    Which means it doesn't matter what the LibDems and the SNP want, as Labour can control the timing, even allowing for 30 or so rebels ?

    The theory is that, if the two-thirds motion is defeated, the government would simply bring forward a new Bill overriding the FTPA, which would "only" need a simple majority in the Commons.

    The problem there is the same problem as with Boris's Brexit deal: even if there is a majority in theory for an election, bits of that majority would flake away once amendments to that Bill (for instance, votes at 16, votes for EU citizens) start getting introduced. And that's before even talking about the Lords, who PBTories seem to just assume would wave through an election, for reasons I can't understand.
  • Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
    Yeah I was a bit surprised.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_P said:
    Because there really isn't enough time for an election unless the EU extends to January 31st.

    And without an election the only game in town is Boris's deal.
  • timpletimple Posts: 117
    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    Your regular reminder that the government's threat to "force an election" is hollow, when they don't have the numbers in Parliament to "force an election" on their own.

    I mean the whole point of the opposition is surely to stop being in opposition and become the government. In what world is gloating over keeping yourself in opposition a viable strategy?
    When the government does something really bad for the country that will take more than a few short months to become obvious.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    That was a pretty convincing speech from Bozza
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Regarding the potential date of a GE...

    A mate of mine is working for a large metropolitan council on their Brexit arrangements, and is in constant contact with bods in central government. He says the working assumption is a January election. Early January, 8th, 10th, something like that.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

    Nobody is going to trigger an election before Christmas for a vote after Christmas. That would be madness! If there's an election it will be in December no later than the 19th or it will be triggered in January which means we must have a vote no earlier than February.
    Yeah I was a bit surprised.
    The thing is that Labour won't vote for an election - but any VONC results in an election 2 weeks later than might otherwise have been the case.


This discussion has been closed.