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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The People Will Speak
There are, broadly, two groups supporting Brexit. First: people who feel that globalisation has gone too far, the cards stacked for far too long in favour of the rich, the well-connected, the mobile, the “citizens of the world”. They want more attention paid to those valuing home, the local, the familiar, the traditional, the markers of belonging: a flag, anthem, a shared history, a sense of “us” and “our story”. Conservative – in the sense of not wanting too much disruptive change too fast – but not necessarily Tory. They distrust an economic view which sees people as “human resources” to be exploited, moved around and made redundant when no longer needed, one which makes it harder to get a permanent reliable job, buy a home, create a secure future. They want governments to focus on their needs first, rather than those of international investors or foreigners. They want control over those who are let into the country, control often meaning a reduction in immigration, especially for some from far away countries They want control over how they are governed and by whom, more than they feel they have.
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Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.
The non-independents (5):
Soubry (TIG)
Lee (LD)
Wallaston (LD)
Gymah (LD)
Allen (LD)
Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.
The Independent Irreconcilables (4)
Voted against the Second Reading as well as the timetabling vote :
Bebb
Greening
Grieve
Nokes (double abstain)
Nokes is an odd one because she voted against Letwin but then abstained twice yesterday. Greening and Bebb both say they are standing down. Remainerville Putney post-Greening looks a toss up. The other 3 look like holds.
The Yes But No But Yes-ers (6):
Ken Clarke
Rory Stewart
Richard Harrington
Philip Hammond
Ann Milton
Antoinette Sandbach
The first three all say they're standing down. Harrington's slightly Brexit-leaning Watford constituency might conceivably be in play if there's very strong tactical voting and Farage splits the leave vote.
Of the rest I personally only give a chance of an overturn result in Guildford but even then, this looks a stretch now there's a Deal.
The Voluntary Indies (2):
Amber Rudd
Nick Boles
Resigned the whip but then backed the government on both votes yesterday. Both standing down. Boles leaves a safe seat behind. One suspects Boris might have done enough to hold Rudd's Brexity uber-marginal Hastings seat, especially given there is currently no assigned Brexit Party candidate.
The Prodigal Children (10)
Benyon
Burt
Letwin
Soames
Brine
Clark
Gauke
S Hammond
James
Vaizey
I have the top-4 as standing down. Presumably the rest will get the whip back?Steven Hammond in Wimbledon and Vaizey in Oxfordshire possibly in play but should on balance be safe from Remainer fury, given they'd no longer have to run under a Deal or No Deal manifesto.
Outcome
Party Discipline from the 288 looks pretty solid. By refreshing the candidate list from the above groups, that gets Boris back to 310-315 seats before we get to the business of figuring out swings in the rest of the CON-LAB, CON-SNP and CON-LD marginals.
Completely OT - browsing Canadian media - two stories stood out - the British family which "accidentally" drove into the US had $16,000 in cash on them:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/we-have-been-treated-like-criminals-british-family-who-accidentally-drove-into-u-s-detained-with-infant
And the Trans-Activist who sued ethnic minority Home Beauty salon owners for failing to provide a 'full Brazilian" had her case chucked out and was ordered to pay costs:
https://nationalpost.com/news/trans-activist-jessica-yaniv-filed-genital-wax-complaints-as-means-of-extortion-rights-tribunal-rules
However today will be just the second time Boris has answered Prime Ministers Questions
I know it's one poll, and it's YouGov (which tends to show the Tories with stronger leads than other pollsters) but some of the breakouts are striking:
Tory Lead:
GB: +15
ABC1: +13
C2DE: +17
Among ABC1 LD ahead of Lab (24 vs 22) while among C2DE LD on 12, vs Lab on 22.
There is a similar picture on 'Best PM':
Johnson lead:
GB: +23
ABC1: +18
C2DE: +30
Tory lead:
18-24: -10
25-49: -4
50-64: +22
65+: +44
The Con vote is now slightly 'stickier' than the LD vote (hasn't been the case for a while):
% 2017 voters VI same now (ie 73% of those who voted Con in 17 have Con VI now):
Con: 73
Lab: 53
LD: 69
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mh2qgto87a/TheTimes_191021_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/how-bad-tempered-election-bradford-17033963
Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.
Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.
We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.
Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.
The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston was NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists. She wasn't a career tory, nor anything like it.
I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.
Given the Corbyn fear factor for Tory voters, I’m not sure I buy the argument that Tory tribalism will be substantially weaker than Labour tribalism, especially given Boris is now campaigning on a Deal platform, and one which has been enthusiastically endorsed by the ERG and the likes of Arron Banks.
I’m going for a workable if unspectacular majority.
Brexit has vexed people but that's mainly because it has dragged on and on and on.
Corbyn won't talk much about Brexit. It bores him. I think in this regard he will really hit a spot.
Jonathan Freedland
MPs have voted for the bill to go forward, but that doesn’t mean they all back it – or that the saga is ending any time soon"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/dont-fall-for-the-hype-mps-not-approve-boris-johnson-deal
Meanwhile we have Dom in Downing Street doing precisely that
The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.
The description of the two groups is fair (I’m in both camps as a good one nation Tory)
But the issues you are describing are more properly for the future negotiations
I find it extraordinary that Labour is seeking to put domestic political policies into an international treaty Vs being prepared to fight for what they believe in at an election
I honestly have no idea why she joined.
Most of the MSM were surprisingly moderate overnight but the usual suspects (Express and Mail) stayed predictably shrill.
It was pretty smart of Corbyn to turn a blind eye on Labour leavers voting through the 2nd reading in exchange for screwing things down on the timetable motion. He and the Labour whips office are astute. Cummings could learn a lot from them.
It also took the heat out of things somewhat. No one can entirely accuse Parliament of 'blocking' Brexit: it's now 'delaying' Brexit.
Had we not had one Boris (now) would probably have about 318-320 votes he could count on, which would probably be enough for almost all key divisions, and the next GE (2020) would be just round the corner anyway.
It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
Clearly, it’s impossible for all of those concerns to be reconciled fully addressed. Boris’s best play would be to end political union with the option of regulatory flexibility for the latter, and offer the option of firmer migration controls and more balanced investment and economic growth (jobs, not splurging) to the regions in the former.
That would obey the spirit of the referendum result.
If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.
Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
And May would still be PM.
Give me a redbrick any day.
Were it not for the usual wreckers of whom Corbyn is one, we would be implementing it now. That’s what will torpedo Corbyn’s chances of the kind of election he wants. For Swinson on the other hand it’s a result of her keeping faith with her stated position of no Brexit ever.
Here the divisions will be sharper on Brexit and it is likely to be the dominant, but not only, issue.
Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.
We need it all, even if it makes us uncomfortable some times.
I suspect that a British public Bored of Brexit won't be keen on a Brexit election either.
Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.
We’re stuck in a doom loop.
Fun.
Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.
And can I point out that it's Johnson who has petulantly paused the legislation? If he wasn't such a prick the bill would now be in committee stage.
After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.
Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
https://www.statnews.com/2019/10/22/biogen-to-submit-aducanumab/
Xi Jinping is taking China to a very dark place. We can help by stopping buying (currently on WTO rules) their pointless plastic shite.
This thinking has renewed popularity among meteorologists recently because of the recent strong influences from the stratosphere on three weather which are more prominent during Lamb's late winter season (20th January to 29th March).
The division into four three month seasons persists mainly for ease of data recording. See http://www.weathercast.co.uk/nc/weather-news/news/article/the_four_seasons.html
Whipless* Leave supporting Kinnock or Flint should start packing as soon as the election is called. Their only chance is staying in the party.
*Clearing out such right wingers and parachuting in some favoured Trot must be very tempting.
It's rubbish, in my opinion.
Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
And containing China is going to be exceptionally difficult. They are no longer dependent of plastic shite, increasingly focused on their domestic market, and aside from a handful of technologies pretty well up with the best the west of western science.
Learning how to live with a wholly undemocratic one of two world superpowers is the challenge.
If the opposition were smart (yes, I know) they would continue to refuse an election under FTPA terms, and vote for a one liner with a yooge set of amendments
Dominic Cummings is the actual leader, and he certainly is authoritarian and at least a Russian nationalist.
Some of the May targeting was ridiculous
I don't think that we will have an election this year, but if we do I guess:
Lab 220
LD 45
SNP 50
Green 1
NI 18
Which leaves Con on 316, with no viable Supply and Confidence deal.
Although, for slightly separate reasons, I’m sceptical a US-UK Deal would pass both Westminster and the Senate.