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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up wher
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are
Prof John Curtice “The SNP are likely to take seats in Scotland, the @LibDems will take seats but the @Conservatives are 10pts ahead. If these polls are played out as they stand, they will get a majority. This however is not a prediction”. #PSABriefing pic.twitter.com/dSSkJ3pUY8
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His Arendt comment echoes my view - expressed many times - that the only way that the Brexit decision can be overturned is if Leavers themselves accept that they got it wrong and want a re-think.
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Either way its very lame.
Nothing wrong with Tusks comments particularly as he is standing down. I imagine the upset is the impression he wasnt working to get a deal but to delay so we changed our minds, but if wed wanted we could have left ages ago, it's on our parliamentarians that we didnt.
The only way to prevent a No Deal Brexit is to kick the Tories OUT. The only way to do this is to elect a LAB government.
LAB will ensure a People's Vote.
The Lib Dems are actively preventing this from happening.
Pick a side. https://t.co/u99v3QvGdu
LAB has lost between a quarter and a third of its GE2017 vote because it has stuck with an unelectable leader,
Controversial suggestion I'm sure, what am I thinking?
What is the number one priority for them?
Stop Brexit
Stop Johnson
Stop Corbyn
Unless they win a majority they can't realistically do all 3.
Their entire messaging and the bulk of the new voters has been linked mostly to Stop Brexit. Yet Swinson is now saying she would prefer a second election to putting Corbyn in. Of course most of her target voters are ex tories but I simply struggle to see what alternative she realistically has to allowing Corbyn in, in some way. If she forces a second election when she had the chance to get ref2, she will lose all her stop brexit voters. It would be madness to force a second election if there is a hung parliament, utter madness. She will not win a majority in that second election so how can it possibly improve her position. I fear she has overdone her anti Labour pitch to the point she no longer can back down.
Labour will ensure it, by refusing to vote for it all those times. But now they're the reliable ones on it.
Um.... okay....
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No-one? Huh? Are you sure about that?
Yes, many punters are daft and take blind punts, or, much worse, bet with their hearts not their heads. But no-one? No way! *Some* folk out there know exactly how it is going on the ground in their local patch. And some of them will place money based on their uncommon knowledge.
If nobody knew anything then political markets would just be simple lotteries. They are not.
Parliamentary democracy is a different gether altothing.
Controversial suggestion I'm sure, what am I thinking?"
You, like others, adhere to the belief that leaving the EU is justified by dint of the majority wanting it. Direct democracy trumps rep democracy. I wonder whether you will entertain the notion that less than 50% now want to leave, thus defeating your argument?
Perhaps if Parliament had been able to provide her with a negotiating mandate we would have had those arguments in 2017, rather than not having them at all except between Johnson and the ERG this autumn.
It's Guildford for heaven's sake. They'll just quietly vote LD and hope for the best.
What is it about Bollocks with you LDs
Tory Swinson has lost between a quarter and a third of its vote share in the last 3 weeks because she is a hypocrite and a lightweight.
2. Is the Pope Catholic?
Yes - and, to be fair, a Labour attack on entrenched wealth is perfectly consistent with collectivist ideology. As a liberal I don`t agree with them but I respect their position.
And yet the Labour brand hangs on.
The twin representatives of entrenched privilege.
On the basis the Tories aren't going away, you're effectively saying there should only be two parties. Tories and 'Not Tories' (i.e labour).
If the Lib Dems accept that then they should just disband tomorrow, if stopping Brexit is the only thing which matters.
This is why tactical voting (apart from very special circumstances, and on a 'nod and wink' level) is extremely limited and dangerous.
The lib Dem position should be clear. Maximum influence and maxmium votes for the lib dems. Vote for us, because we're the best choice.
(With the possible exception of HYUFD.)
A value bet was made.
LAB will ensure a People's Vote.
The Lib Dems are actively preventing this from happening.
Pick a side"
GE is not all about one issue. That`s why it should have been a confirmatory referendum rather than a GE.
The unambiguous Pro-EU stance the SNP took lost it votes in 2017. But tat makes it resilient to losing further votes now.
In East Dunbartonshire, she is entirely dependent upon local Tories voting SLD purely tactically. Her initial “Bollocks To Brexit” stance was catastrophic for her personal interests. She was pissing off exactly the people she needed to cling on to her seat.
If the Tories want to have fun, and boy would it be funny, they ought to pour resources into East Dunbartonshire and fight Swinson tooth and nail on the Brexit issue. OK, they won’t cos they don’t want a stunning SNP gain, but boy, it would be the Portillo-moment of the night. Times two.
Thanks for asking.
Like when someone gets engaged and changes their mind: they have to complete getting married and then they can divorce, otherwise its somehow undemocratic. Or if you decide to quit your job but change your mind - you have to leave and reapply.
You know. Common sense.
(Is that right? Ed.)
She`s a bit fit for my liking - I reckon she`d do me in a fight - I prefer my women to be a bit more vulnerable.
Is that the case with you and the RAC? Are you their number one trading partner? Oh and every year when I tell Sky I am leaving they are more than happy to offer me plenty.
Average Tory lead 28 days ahead of GE17 = 17%
Opinion polls gave Ed Miliband's Labour Party a lead in the polls from late 2010 to early 2015. Should David Cameron have vacated Downing Street and invited Ed Miliband to take his place as Prime Minister on the basis of opinion polls or is it votes that matter?
Labour...the party of the 'working classes' no longer.
Those 2017 figures are presumably from the GE. The comparison would be better if the 2017 figures were from opinion polls four to six weeks before the GE as we have for 2019.
Mum dies, leaves house worth £1m to 4 children.
The net of tax inheritance will be HIGHER under the new system.
The extra money for each child will not in any way lessen their grief, of course, they will think about Mum every day of their lives until they themselves pass away, but it is certainly not to be sneezed at.
The LDs now the party of the middle class percentage wise even if the Tories lead with middle class voters still
As far as I know only the Labour Party and SNP have that as their policy - the SNP wanting to rehold two referendums next year as they lost both of them last time.
https://twitter.com/jamesaknight/status/1194908816795668480?s=21
This would be Christmas come early for us Tories if Labour are stupid enough to pursue it
So if Dad, or any of their 4 Grandparents or anyone else bequeaths them anything then it would be different.