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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Esher & Walton, constituency voting intention:

Read the full story here


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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    Raab has to be gone. What Labour voter wouldn't back the Lib Dems in this situation just for shits and giggles?
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited November 2019
    Second. Like Raab.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    We need Survation
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
    Beginning to smell like another hung parliament. Christ.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rottenborough said:

    Beginning to smell like another hung parliament. Christ.

    It's not.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    I expect that Raab will hold narrowly.

    WRT Berwick, I expect that shows the North East gradually trending Conservative.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Deltapoll does support the concept of a realignment in the country. Tories down in the South but up in the North. As has been said it’s a real shame they didn’t poll more leave constituencies.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Raab has to be gone. What Labour voter wouldn't back the Lib Dems in this situation just for shits and giggles?

    See Richmond Park.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Basically, I need a new drinking game/bingo sheet for the 12th.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    edited November 2019
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Raab has to be gone. What Labour voter wouldn't back the Lib Dems in this situation just for shits and giggles?

    There's a hardcore Labour vote in every constituency that will pay no attention to anything that goes on, and will head out to the polls ticking the Labour box come hell or high water. It's possible this is 7 or 8% in Esher and Walton.
    I mean it's rare this helps the Tories but it might get Raab over the line.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    edited November 2019
    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Also we need an article from the likes of Matt Singh to pick apart how the different polls, reporting different things, are constructed.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7741155/Boris-Johnson-danger-mirroring-Theresa-Mays-collapse.html
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    The “shape” of the two party’s votes after this election might be fascinating.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7741155/Boris-Johnson-danger-mirroring-Theresa-Mays-collapse.html

    A very helpful article, reminds potential Tory voters that it's still to play for.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited November 2019
    Given Yougov MRP had the Tories with a majority of 68 but also Labour holding Portsmouth South and Raab only narrowly ahead in Esher and Walton too no worries for the Tories here

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    #ChickenBoris
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    edited November 2019
    It’s beginning to feel a lot like 2017.

    I was always of the opinion any majority was likely to be slim, but chances of a HP are now much higher than at the start of the campaign, IMHO.

    I still think on balance the Tories will make it, just, but it looks like it might be seat-of-your-pants stuff.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I wonder if we'll see a 5 point lead today?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    Yes student vote boosts Labour in all 3 above the national average
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    FPT:
    Comparisons of the new Deltapoll constituency polls with the YouGov MRP:
    Portsmouth South:
    Deltapoll: Lab 46, Con 38, LD 11, BRX 2.
    YouGov MRP: Lab 42, Con 35, LD 16, BRX 6, Oth 2.
    Esher & Walton:
    Deltapoll: Con 46, LD 41, Lab 9.
    YouGov MRP: Con 49, LD 38, Lab 11, Oth 2.
    Beaconsfield:
    Deltapoll: Con 53, Ind Grieve 36, Lab 24, Grn 3.
    YouGov MRP: Con 56, Ind Grieve 28, Lab 12, Grn 4.
    Berwick-upon-Tweed:
    Deltapoll: Con 60, LD 20, Lab 17, Grn 2.
    YouGov MRP: Con 53, LD 24, Lab 20, Grn 4.
    SW Herts:
    Deltapoll: Con 50, Lab 17, Ind Gauke 16, LD 13, Grn 2.
    YouGov MRP: Con 46, Ind Gauke 20, LD 16, Lab 15, Grn 3.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    Great to see that Grieve and Gauke are likely to get the boot. There’s going to be a lot of turnover in this election, even if only a few dozen seats nominally change hands.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I still intrinsically think the Tory vote will end up around 40%, but we will see what other polls say
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    The one thing this does not look like is uniform national swing. FWIW I think the chance of a hung parliament is increasing; I wonder if there will be a few shy WASPI women, and their partners, who will vote Labour for the payout - which on paper is huge - but not necessarily say so. There is evidence that people can be bribed for tiny sums, let alone 20k+. Whatever the result they are going to be terribly disappointed.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    numbertwelve said:

    It’s beginning to feel a lot like 2017.

    I was always of the opinion any majority was likely to be slim, but chances of a HP are now much higher than at the start of the campaign, IMHO.

    I still think on balance the Tories will make it, just, but it looks like it might be seat-of-your-pants stuff.

    I guess one big difference is that both the Tory and Labour parties are likely to be more united and shaped in the image of their leaders. Either way round, a hung Parliament is going to be awful.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    Judging from my own canvassing (and reports from others), Raab will hold comfortably. There’s no sense of panic in the campaign. I have been wrong on a number of occasions.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Raab has to be gone. What Labour voter wouldn't back the Lib Dems in this situation just for shits and giggles?

    How will he be gone? He has a 5 point lead and tactical voting has been maxed out pretty much, and that’s before an expected Lib to Tory swing in the final week, and aren’t Deltapoll the best pollsters for the lib dems?

    You’d think Raab was 5 points behind not ahead!
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Anyone done any digging on what polls looked like this week compared to 2017?

    Didn't ComRes have a higher poll lead on the night before GE17?

    Had we seen a 5 point lead by this point?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I still intrinsically think the Tory vote will end up around 40%, but we will see what other polls say

    You said 37% earlier in the week. Still as in you’ve not changed your mind in the past 24 hours then.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Brom said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I still intrinsically think the Tory vote will end up around 40%, but we will see what other polls say

    You said 37% earlier in the week. Still as in you’ve not changed your mind in the past 24 hours then.
    I upped it to 40% yesterday actually.

    Why don't you stop responding to my posts if you hate them so much?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    edited November 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Anyone done any digging on what polls looked like this week compared to 2017?

    Didn't ComRes have a higher poll lead on the night before GE17?

    Had we seen a 5 point lead by this point?

    The weekend leads in the same weekend of 2017 were 4,6,7,12 and 14

    YouGov had reported a 5% lead in the week leading up to it
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    I expect there are polls for Warrington South, Bishop Auckland but Martin Boon probably selling the results to city traders for huge sums lol
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good that Corbynista TSE quotes the best poll for LAB. We know we have lost Portsmouth S see MRP
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    Time_to_Leave said:

    Basically, I need a new drinking game/bingo sheet for the 12th.

    Definitely double shots for Gauke and Grieve!
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    wooliedyed said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Anyone done any digging on what polls looked like this week compared to 2017?

    Didn't ComRes have a higher poll lead on the night before GE17?

    Had we seen a 5 point lead by this point?

    The weekend leads in the same weekend of 2017 were 4,6,7,10 and 14
    Was that the first 4 point we saw?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Raab will win by 15,000 you heard it here first
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    JohnO said:

    Judging from my own canvassing (and reports from others), Raab will hold comfortably. There’s no sense of panic in the campaign. I have been wrong on a number of occasions.

    You've been right more often than not though, John. I for one believe you. It would take tactical voting and differential turnout on a massive scale to push Raab over the edge.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Ave_it said:

    Good that Corbynista TSE quotes the best poll for LAB. We know we have lost Portsmouth S see MRP

    I’m voting to stop a Corbynista being elected on December 12th.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,703
    Ave_it said:

    Raab will win by 15,000 you heard it here first

    Have you put money on it?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    wooliedyed said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Anyone done any digging on what polls looked like this week compared to 2017?

    Didn't ComRes have a higher poll lead on the night before GE17?

    Had we seen a 5 point lead by this point?

    The weekend leads in the same weekend of 2017 were 4,6,7,10 and 14
    Was that the first 4 point we saw?
    Yes, there was a labour lead the following weekend from the blink and you miss it Qriously agency
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ave_it said:

    Good that Corbynista TSE quotes the best poll for LAB. We know we have lost Portsmouth S see MRP

    I’m voting to stop a Corbynista being elected on December 12th.
    I'm voting to stop Boris Johnson
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Sandpit said:

    Time_to_Leave said:

    Basically, I need a new drinking game/bingo sheet for the 12th.

    Definitely double shots for Gauke and Grieve!
    Last time I went on to whisky for the Scottish results. Nothing will match the feeling of watching Salmond’s face I suspect.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Labour really needs to see a 5 pointer this weekend to have a bit of hope
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Ave_it said:

    Raab will win by 15,000 you heard it here first

    Thanks Ave It. I think I'll have that in a double with Watford to win the Premiership title. Should pay nicely.
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    https://mobile.twitter.com/martinboon/status/1200863989275738113

    😭😭😭
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    Time_to_Leave said:

    Sandpit said:

    Time_to_Leave said:

    Basically, I need a new drinking game/bingo sheet for the 12th.

    Definitely double shots for Gauke and Grieve!
    Last time I went on to whisky for the Scottish results. Nothing will match the feeling of watching Salmond’s face I suspect.
    When he gets sent down?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    numbertwelve said:

    It’s beginning to feel a lot like 2017.

    I was always of the opinion any majority was likely to be slim, but chances of a HP are now much higher than at the start of the campaign, IMHO.

    I still think on balance the Tories will make it, just, but it looks like it might be seat-of-your-pants stuff.

    I don’t believe in Father Christmas, I don’t want Johnson as PM but that’s what is going to happen, the only hope is corbyn and his stupid ultra left socialist policies are confined to the bin. If they are not then it will be Johnson, Patel and what’s his name from last night until 2024
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Odds are sticking around 1.49
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Up to 1.5 now
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect there are polls for Warrington South, Bishop Auckland but Martin Boon probably selling the results to city traders for huge sums lol

    We can probably guess what the results will be from MPR: 😊
    Warrington South: Con 45%, Lab 41%, LD 9%, BRX 4%.
    Bishop Auckland: Con 47%, Lab 39%, BRX 8%, LD 6%.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Ave_it said:

    Raab will win by 15,000 you heard it here first

    Thanks Ave It. I think I'll have that in a double with Watford to win the Premiership title. Should pay nicely.
    😊😊😊 Better off with my CON gain Ogmore bet
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
    Yes although when you have two different methods coming up with very similar figures it lends credibility to the numbers in my opinion.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1200855098861203456?s=21
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    So when are we going to get constituency polling for the real battlegrounds? Like Ynys Mon.
    :neutral:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1200855098861203456?s=21

    Boom?
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1200855098861203456?s=21

    Predictions?
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    novanova Posts: 525
    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Anyone done any digging on what polls looked like this week compared to 2017?

    Didn't ComRes have a higher poll lead on the night before GE17?

    Had we seen a 5 point lead by this point?

    Sorry to disappoint you but I don't think just looking at 2017 makes any sense. What would make sense is looking at the polls from a number of previous election campaigns together. Just picking one is a bit suspect IMO.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.

    FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    That has not been posted.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Odds are sticking around 1.49

    Because all of these constituency polls are all pretty much in line with MRP.
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    NestacresNestacres Posts: 17
    Opinium for guardian lead down to 15 points
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/30/poll-finds-dominic-raab-risks-losing-seat-to-lib-dems
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    Isn't it a two point swing?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    Another banger for the Tories. Yougov is the key. Hopefully it’s 9 point or more lead.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    Brings the labour figure into the low 30s with the others
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    it would be .........no, can't be bothered.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    2% swing.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    MaxPB said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    2% swing.
    Ah, thanks
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Has the Mail article got their latest DeltaPoll to 1 decimal place or am i misreading it?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    edited November 2019
    The Guardian are doing their best to play down a 46% score for the Tories in this report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/30/poll-finds-dominic-raab-risks-losing-seat-to-lib-dems
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    Yes, that would make sense. They've been the outriders, but they are trending the same way as most others.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,733
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Brom said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I still intrinsically think the Tory vote will end up around 40%, but we will see what other polls say

    You said 37% earlier in the week. Still as in you’ve not changed your mind in the past 24 hours then.
    I upped it to 40% yesterday actually.

    Why don't you stop responding to my posts if you hate them so much?
    If only everyone here would stop responding to people they disagree with.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    The Berwick constituency poll has a 7.5% Lab to Con swing.

    If we use that as a proxy for Northern Labour Leave seats that would be a lot of Conservative gains.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    nova said:

    Not sure if this has been posted but Opinium has:

    Tories 46 (-1)
    Labour 31 (+3)

    4 point swing to Labour, still a massive Tory lead though
    Ty CHB.

    More chance Watford winning PL. Or people liking Liverpool
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    So the trend seems to be a swing towards Labour but depending on the strength of the Tory lead that could mean a lot or not much at all!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    41.9/32.3/13.0 ??

    Latest Deltapoll??
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    bigjohnowls said:

    Has the Mail article got their latest DeltaPoll to 1 decimal place or am i misreading it?

    Perhaps if you posted the link we could help you out? :p
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
    Yes although when you have two different methods coming up with very similar figures it lends credibility to the numbers in my opinion.
    It does, yes, but there's still almost two weeks to go and a lot of voters still haven't started even thinking about this election.

    And the trend is terrifying.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    I conclude from this that WASPI women and their families represent about, oh, 8% of the electorate.

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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Is Survation MIA?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    bigjohnowls said:

    Has the Mail article got their latest DeltaPoll to 1 decimal place or am i misreading it?

    No that's the Britain elects figure average. It's been on there for a day or two
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Casino_Royale said:

    I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.

    FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.

    Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited November 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So the trend seems to be a swing towards Labour but depending on the strength of the Tory lead that could mean a lot or not much at all!

    No, a small swing towards Labour, much smaller than they need with less than two weeks to go.

    And a swing that seems to have halted or been reversed.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
    Yes although when you have two different methods coming up with very similar figures it lends credibility to the numbers in my opinion.
    It does, yes, but there's still almost two weeks to go and a lot of voters still haven't started even thinking about this election.

    And the trend is terrifying.
    Latest poll is Con 46%, Lab 31%. Should calm Tory nerves.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    MaxPB said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So the trend seems to be a swing towards Labour but depending on the strength of the Tory lead that could mean a lot or not much at all!

    No, a small swing towards Labour, much smaller than they need with less than two weeks to go.
    If you believe the poll with a 6 point lead, that would be more than enough to cause a HP. If you don't, then it isn't.

    These polls seem to give everyone something to be pleased with
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    edited November 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So the trend seems to be a swing towards Labour but depending on the strength of the Tory lead that could mean a lot or not much at all!

    Labour are consistently taking share from the LDs but the Tory average is flatlining at about 42%. The new 46% number from Opinium will probably keep them at that level.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    bigjohnowls said:

    41.9/32.3/13.0 ??

    Latest Deltapoll??

    No that's not Deltapoll
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Two weeks ago the polls were:

    BMG Con 37, Lab 29
    ComRes Con 41, Lab 33
    Opinium Con 44, Lab 28
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Which pollster got EU Elections right?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1200867092469145600?s=21
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    MaxPB said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    So the trend seems to be a swing towards Labour but depending on the strength of the Tory lead that could mean a lot or not much at all!

    No, a small swing towards Labour, much smaller than they need with less than two weeks to go.
    If you believe the poll with a 6 point lead, that would be more than enough to cause a HP. If you don't, then it isn't.

    These polls seem to give everyone something to be pleased with
    I think we're about 9-11 points up on Labour which is about a 4% swing, enough to get a pretty decent majority.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FPT:

    (These blinking threads keep updating every time I stop to do a bit of analysis. Grrrr...)
    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855028229115905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855757362782209
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855937931718658

    Mmm My model has Con 61% LD 34% Lab 6% for Esher. LDs doing well in consistency poll. Not grounds for an adjustment of tactical voting though.
    The YouGov MRP is a *LOT* closer to Deltapoll than that. In fact, there's broad agreement between the YouGov model and the Deltapoll results across all five constituencies, as per the following. I've included next to the Deltapoll figures the percentage differences between them and the results indicated by the YouGov model:

    Deltapoll versus YouGov MRP

    Portsmouth South

    Deltapoll:
    Lab 46% (+4%)
    Con 38% (+3%)
    LD 11% (-5%)
    Brex 2% (-4%)

    YouGov:
    Lab 42%
    Con 35%
    LD 16%
    Brex 6%

    Esher & Walton

    Deltapoll:
    Con 46% (-3%)
    LD 41% (+3%)
    Lab 9% (-2%)

    YouGov:
    Con 49%
    LD 38%
    Lab 11%

    Berwick upon Tweed

    Deltapoll:
    Con 60% (+7%)
    LD 20% (-4%)
    Lab 17% (-3%)
    Green 2% (-2%)

    YouGov:
    Con 53%
    LD 24%
    Lab 20%
    Green 4%

    Beaconsfield

    Deltapoll:
    Con 53% (-3%)
    Grieve 36% (+8%)
    Lab 7% (-5%)
    Green 1% (-3%)

    YouGov:
    Con 56%
    Grieve 28%
    Lab 12%
    Green 4%

    South West Herts

    Deltapoll:
    Con 50% (+4%)
    Lab 17% (+2%)
    Gauke 16% (-4%)
    LD 13% (-3%)
    Green 2% (-1%)

    YouGov:
    Con 46%
    Gauke 20%
    LD 16%
    Lab 15%
    Green 3%

    In terms of the Deltapoll versus YouGov differences, I can't see any consistent patterns for Lab, Con or LD, notably anything that might indicate that the YouGov model may be overstating the Tories and understating Labour (such a thing may indeed be occurring, and might be apparent if we had a lot more constituency data, but there's nothing from these Deltapoll numbers to suggest that it is.) This represents welcome news for the Tories.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.

    FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.

    Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
    We don't, but China under Xi is a human rights toilet and the man is an evil authoritarian arsehole. He talks of grinding his enemies to powder and "disappears" opponents. He hacks and steals everything he can. Meanwhile he's buying up the world so it's his bitch.

    If I could boycott PRC goods I would but seemingly absolutely everything is made in China so it's hardly practical.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Time_to_Leave said:

    I conclude from this that WASPI women and their families represent about, oh, 8% of the electorate.

    It's actually a leading question saying they "lost out".

    Very much a matter of opinion that.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I doubt Raab is in that much trouble. If he was, then seats would be at risk of falling to the LDs all over the Remainder and commuter south east.

    FPT - if that report of the Patel/Raab fallout over Hong Kong is accurate then that's disgraceful behaviour by our foreign secretary. We should never kowtow to China.

    Why not? We kowtow to the USA.
    No we don't, we have a 'special relationship'.

    Which means British lives and money are wasted in American wars and in return British politicians get to posture about the world pretending to be more important than they are.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
    Yes although when you have two different methods coming up with very similar figures it lends credibility to the numbers in my opinion.
    It does, yes, but there's still almost two weeks to go and a lot of voters still haven't started even thinking about this election.

    And the trend is terrifying.
    Latest poll is Con 46%, Lab 31%. Should calm Tory nerves.
    Which poll? Link?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1200867092469145600
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    edited November 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All these constituency polls are in line with the YouGov MRP study which points to a Tory majority of 68.
    Portsmouth South, for instance, was predicted by the model to be one of the best seats for Labour, along with Canterbury and Leeds North West.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

    But, they are polls.
    Yes although when you have two different methods coming up with very similar figures it lends credibility to the numbers in my opinion.
    It does, yes, but there's still almost two weeks to go and a lot of voters still haven't started even thinking about this election.

    And the trend is terrifying.
    Latest poll is Con 46%, Lab 31%. Should calm Tory nerves.
    Which poll? Link?
    Opinium:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/30/poll-finds-dominic-raab-risks-losing-seat-to-lib-dems
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