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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Brexit Divisions
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Brexit Divisions
Political parties have always been coalitions in themselves. They are big tents and broad churches that try to keep everyone singing from more or less the same hymn sheet, or at least not fighting in the aisles. But sometimes you can see the stretch and the strain in the canvas as it tries to hold it all together. As James Maxton quipped during Labour party splits in the 1930s, “if you can’t ride two horses at once then you’ve no business being in the circus”.
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We're all split.
In this light the position Labour finally arrived at is a very good one: offer a proper, decent, deal (Johnson's isn't) vs Remain. And Corbyn can be neutral. In fact, any politician can be neutral. Why not? Leave it to the people to have the final say.
It's great. Unfortunately, we've descended into playground politics and a grown-up approach is shouted down by a mixture of rabid right-wingers, revoking remainers and tabloid journalism.
They're hammering the message to leavers that Johnson's deal is crap (it really is) and that they can get an improved one 'within six moths' that will protect trade and jobs. Then they offer that for a final say.
This is harder for Labour than the Tories because Remainers are more divided than Leavers. Is the objective to overturn the referendum? Or to ensure that Brexit doesn't destroy the economy and we can have the option of rejoining in ten years?
If they'd concentrated on arguing the points for a close relationship with the EU when outside then it would have made the case for Remaining too, and they might have moved the polls more than the derisory amount they may have shifted (if at all). A substantial change in public opinion would have made the case for a second referendum more clearly than anything else.
This election would look very different if the overall pool of committed Leave voters had been whittled down to the mid-30s compared to the current mid-40s.
You may 'think' it has been resolved but it hasn't. The current situation is like Vesuvius the morning before the eruption. Several Brexiteer tories are going to feel the remainer wrath. And more generally by Dec 13th all hell will break loose once again in the tory party. The 1/3rd of remainer Tories also happen to represent the ground on which outright majorities are won.
In some ways, even though I'm a remainer, I'd find the idea of a single figure Johnson majority the most delicious of all.
If Boris wins and Brexit is done then Labour are likely to have some severe internal bloodletting whilst they decide the direction they are going to travel. I find it hard to see how they won't split.
The Tories wouldn't be in a much better position either if they lost.
Labour are taking voters for fools if they think they will be able to sell that in the Mids/NW/NE.
I'm not at all sure what your comment about the derisory shift 'if at all' refers to. If you mean the national opinion polling then Labour's uptick has been commensurate with 2017 and they will be perfectly happy with where things are. I'm increasingly confident that we are heading for a hung parliament, at which point that's the end of Johnson. Brexit will then rest on Labour.
Generally, though, it's a good idea to save the post-mortem until the person's dead.
It's a powerful message and it's working.
Labour are coming home. They always do.
Throw into that the brilliantly targetted LibDem work in key constituencies, masked in the national opinion polling, as well as the SNP gains in Scotland, and I am pretty sure now that we're looking at another hung parliament.
Oh and right on cue we have Donald Trump landing in Britain.
The LibDems are probably close to their floor now. There may still be some converts from the Tories who get jittery over the idea of Labour seeing power in any form. Anything less than a 10% lead and they will start holding their nose and voting for the blues. Their return will be concentrated in the very places the Libdems have been trumpeting - SE suburbia. And that will rob the LibDems of any chance of making more than a handful of gains.
What was in Heath's terms that turned Wilson against them? Or was it just internal party splits?
I am a Remainer, but even I would concede that a renegotiation to keep in the SM and maintain close regulatory alignment on agricultural standards would be a form of Brexit that I could live with. Such a Deal would be the sort of Deal that puts the whole issue to bed apart from fringe extremes. It would also most likely put considerable restraints on the worst excesses of Labour economic policy. It would be a far better Deal.
It’s not worth your time
But as an ideology? It has always been Far Right. The bastards, as John Major called them. The Awkward Squad. The ERG, UKIP, the Brexit Party.
Even Margaret Thatcher wasn't a Brexiteer.
Labour pledges to cut rail fares by a third
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50621621
Doesn't it rather undermine Labour's claims that renationalised industries would accrue profits to the taxpayer? Not, it has to be said, that I have ever heard them make that claim for railways.
When the dust settles on this election I predict that 95% of people, you included, will come to see the visceral damage caused by the shenanigans of Johnson and Cummings.
It may pull across a few LD's in the commuter areas of the SE but i'm not sure that is going to be helpful in the final reckoning.
And the press will quickly find very rich city types to trumpet the giveaway from Labour.
Probably won't go down too well further north.
But they’re still 9 points behind. I still believe Labour can force a HP (LD vote looks terminal now) but they really need to get above 35% this week - and so far they have failed to do so.
Squeaky bum time for both sides I’d say.
I accept that calling Brexiteers 'Far Right' may appear offensive but I genuinely believe that it has always ideologically been the Golden Fleece of the Far Right. As I say, even Maggie wasn't a Brexiteer.
Have a good day!
If the polls are correct, Tory majority looks close to certain. But that's a hell of an 'if.'
Whether this new giveaway has been dreamt up because Labour's internal polling and canvass returns suggest the bribes are working, or because they suggest that Labour is doing badly and they're getting desperate, I don't know. But this on-the-hoof policy making could easily backfire: the policy is disproportionately aimed at well-off commuters in South-East England, said commuters may well see through it and conclude that what the Government gives with one hand it will simply take with the other through much higher taxes, and people further up North who are getting less public funding and are much less likely to travel regularly by rail will notice more money for London/the rich (paid for out of their taxes) and be somewhat displeased.
The Tories, on the other hand, are in mortal danger if they lose power, for they are not loved and really have only one purpose in our political system: to act as a device for people who fear Labour to lock them out of power. If the Tories can't even beat a candidate for high office as obviously unsuitable as Jeremy Corbyn, so this argument goes, then what use are they?
And to have the majority of Labour MPs representing the Far Right.
Your genuine beliefs are not worth listening to.
I think Labour are definitely doing better than expected, but the key will be whether they can get the gap to 5% or below with a few pollsters.
https://twitter.com/butwhatifitsall/status/1201288614329692161?s=21
There are plenty of problems that need to be fixed in this country, but Corbyn and Macdonald would be untold damage to the fabric of society.
None of this alters the fact that I don’t believe you are what you say.
Might not happen but the runs keep on showing it. I've no idea what the net effect would be on voting apart from transport nigthmares but it really does show snow chaos for different parts of the UK through the day on Dec 12th with bitterly cold conditions.
The oldies would have sent their postal votes in already, whilst the young will be too busy snowball fighting!
FWIW, I wouldn't be too surprised to see today's Survation being close to the final. Maybe the Brexit Party vote squeezed down to nothing, to the slight benefit of the Tories. Labour's vote piled up where they don't need it, in the cities. The Tory vote thinned out where they can most afford it - SE England. The Labour vote thinned out where they can least afford it - Midlands and Northern marginals. The LibDem vote squeezed. A workable Tory majority.
Labour not wiped out to the point where they HAVE to walk away from Corbynism, but clear enough to many they are stopping Labour from getting power. Ongoing civil war in the Labour ranks. Pressure on Swinson to step down. Farage into the Lords. SNP full of impotent rage because Boris won't let them have another referendum. As Boris goes down the rabbit hole of trade talks with the EU.
😂
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
(Most people use “boots” not “trousers”)
Leigh Con Gain Majority 30
😇
The story of this election might be remarkably simple. It began with the leave side sorting how best to organise its vote, and having watched this, now the Remain side is struggling to catch up. It’s a race against time.
It really is stupid
I earn a good salary and yet Labour want to cut my fares?
Also I find (at least in my business) that those who commute furthest tend to be those earning high salaries.
Also - classic timing - whats the point of paying less if you increase union power and they will strike and disrupt your service.
Sorry, @Casino_Royale, couldn’t resist...
Classic stupidity from Labour
For me, the most important question about polling is whether - and if so when - YouGov is going to issue updates of its MRP model. Does anyone know?
The first release was last Wednesday, so weekly updates with the last one on the eve of poll would make sense.
Frosty again.
Panic is setting in. Their internal polling must utterly stink
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png
THE ECMWF is the clear leader in NWP. The GFS is not even second, it's behind UKMO's global model too. Little old blighty better than the yanks!
How many hundreds of billions are we up to now, and how few people are deemed rich enough to simply roll over and pay all this extra money?
Oh, and a big dead cat to take focus away from the fact that thousands of railwaymen are on strike again today.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
Do we think that the Johnson attempt to big up "tough on terrorists" will work, by the way? I think his reputation makes it hard for him to sell - it's so obviously an election stunt. People who like him will like it, others simply won't believe there's anything concrete behind it and it's just more guff.
It seems to have stopped convincing itself the Queen is dead.
Leaving is not a left/right issue.
Have a good morning, good luck to all stranded commuters.
Surely "None of the Above" is head and shoulders above the other alternatives in this election.
I generally put my trousers on first.
I don't remember daily releases in 2017, but certainly there used to be a graph on the YouGov website showing the daily change over the final weeks of the campaign.