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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate nu

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate numbers for Remainia and Leaveistan

One of the distinctive features of polling for this general election has been the number of single constituency polls and we seem to be getting a new batch every Saturday night. In the main these have been showing something of a different  picture from the main national polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited December 2019
    Lib Dems winning here...

    (I'm reliably informed by our elections expert)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I’m gutted I didn’t get my letter. Could have swung my vote. Although which way, I can’t be sure.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Out of interest does the letter come with Lib Dem branded paperwork, envelope frontage etc as OGH letters shown on twitter etc don't seem to describe themselves as being Lib Dem sponsored (though obviously it is a promo by them)?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,288
    Leaverstan, surely!
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Labour just taking the mick now?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1201559436613111809?s=20
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,288
    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,597
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Labour just taking the mick now?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1201559436613111809?s=20

    Great, is he going to lead by example, and give the money back?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Leaverstan, surely!

    Correct and thanks
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    After GE2017, I'm waiting to hear the call made by David Herdson..... Prof Curtice's exit poll is late in the day compared to his earlier insights?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Jonathan said:

    I’m gutted I didn’t get my letter. Could have swung my vote. Although which way, I can’t be sure.

    I don't think Horsham is seen as a key marginal
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Labour just taking the mick now?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1201559436613111809?s=20

    Great, is he going to lead by example, and give the money back?
    If that's the vote they are targeting the internal polling must be grim indeed
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 707
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    After GE2017, I'm waiting to hear the call made by David Herdson..... Prof Curtice's exit poll is late in the day compared to his earlier insights?

    If I remember correctly, David H’s Con seat projection exactly matched that of the YouGov MRP. I hope both useful indicators will be in similar alignment this time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority. Might be a bot malfunctioning.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas:
    https://www.ourscreen.com/film/Die-Hard
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    Good to hear that OGH made his feelings known and that the LDs gave assurances about the future use of the letter.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    MikeSmithson said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m gutted I didn’t get my letter. Could have swung my vote. Although which way, I can’t be sure.

    I don't think Horsham is seen as a key marginal
    Not yet. Maybe after five years of Boris. 😀
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    I hope they can afford to lose it. Is it for big odds?
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    edited December 2019
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    NeilVW said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    After GE2017, I'm waiting to hear the call made by David Herdson..... Prof Curtice's exit poll is late in the day compared to his earlier insights?

    If I remember correctly, David H’s Con seat projection exactly matched that of the YouGov MRP. I hope both useful indicators will be in similar alignment this time.
    If you read the traffic on here, it seems the MRP has been completely disregarded.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
    Betfair Tory majority. Market has now jumped in 3 points towards Tory in a couple of minutes.
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 707
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201561507311628291?s=21
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Really Corbyn, /Really?



    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    On the other hand



    https://order-order.com/2019/12/02/corbyn-made-multiple-tv-appearences-islam-channel-censured-ofcom-supporting-marital-rape/



    Classic Jezbollah
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Con Maj on BF is stable.

    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.


    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    NeilVW said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201561507311628291?s=21

    Lab on 35%. 😮
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    I assume every labour activist is in Southport, Chester and Birkenhead, any others?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
    Betfair Tory majority. Market has now jumped in 3 points towards Tory in a couple of minutes.
    Thanks. We’re in the last 10 days now.

    That’s when a lot of big money from city investors starts appearing.

    They are just as able to get it badly wrong.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Floater said:

    Really Corbyn, /Really?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html

    And its Boris getting in the neck...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    nichomar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
    Was she on Adam Boulton’s show or was she talking about Henry Bolton?
  • Options
    NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Ok, ive just seen a tweet by JC with someone made out to be Richard Branson. It's a combination of great ugliness and great sadness of just how base people can be.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
    Betfair Tory majority. Market has now jumped in 3 points towards Tory in a couple of minutes.
    Thanks. We’re in the last 10 days now.

    That’s when a lot of big money from city investors starts appearing.

    They are just as able to get it badly wrong.
    What we've learnt in recent years is that punters can get things wrong
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
    Betfair Tory majority. Market has now jumped in 3 points towards Tory in a couple of minutes.
    Thanks. We’re in the last 10 days now.

    That’s when a lot of big money from city investors starts appearing.

    They are just as able to get it badly wrong.
    Something is going on. £90k worth on the lay side available between 1.53 and 1.55
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,979
    FPT
    Brom said:

    Put it this way Eek. Do you feel confident in those Labour marginal seats with a leave vote above 55% that 90% or more of the Labour 2017 voters will be voting Labour again this time?

    Not very but rather more confident than I was this time last week.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Did someone mention Labour taking the piss

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747291/Jeremy-Corbyn-criticised-video-supporting-minority-groups-excludes-Jewish-community.html

    Mr Corbyn posted the one minute and eight second video about diversity on Twitter on Saturday with the words 'this is our strength'.

    The video uses a speech by shadow equalities secretary Dawn Butler as a voice over in which she lists various different groups and insists 'a Labour government will value you'.

    But the video does not refer to British Jewish people in a move which has sparked fury and risks worsening Labour's existing anti-Semitism crisis.

    I mean seriously.........
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Stocky said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
    It’s too late. Has been for ages.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Jonathan said:

    NeilVW said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201561507311628291?s=21

    Lab on 35%. 😮
    Now they only need to outperform polls by a couple of %, rather than 4-5%.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    Shocking, and in a marginal too!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Floater said:

    Did someone mention Labour taking the piss

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747291/Jeremy-Corbyn-criticised-video-supporting-minority-groups-excludes-Jewish-community.html

    Mr Corbyn posted the one minute and eight second video about diversity on Twitter on Saturday with the words 'this is our strength'.

    The video uses a speech by shadow equalities secretary Dawn Butler as a voice over in which she lists various different groups and insists 'a Labour government will value you'.

    But the video does not refer to British Jewish people in a move which has sparked fury and risks worsening Labour's existing anti-Semitism crisis.

    I mean seriously.........

    Well if he gets elected there won't be any left in our communities anyway...
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    Ok, ive just seen a tweet by JC with someone made out to be Richard Branson. It's a combination of great ugliness and great sadness of just how base people can be.

    AB morning show it really is quite unique in its stupidity. Wrong comment the UKIP leader interview sorry
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big load of money just went on Betfair, £85k worth on the lay side of Tory majority.

    Which market?
    Betfair Tory majority. Market has now jumped in 3 points towards Tory in a couple of minutes.
    Thanks. We’re in the last 10 days now.

    That’s when a lot of big money from city investors starts appearing.

    They are just as able to get it badly wrong.
    Given what Corbs has in store You would think the City would be selling the heck out of the tories at every opportunity.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    Really Corbyn, /Really?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html

    And its Boris getting in the neck...
    The clip is of a few bunches of flowers and lasts a second . Johnson has milked the attack for all its worth so spare us the faux outrage .
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    That went well then

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/02/lifelong-labour-voter-blasts-barry-gardiner-taking-granted/
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nico67 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    Really Corbyn, /Really?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html

    And its Boris getting in the neck...
    The clip is of a few bunches of flowers and lasts a second . Johnson has milked the attack for all its worth so spare us the faux outrage .
    Right back at you

  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    edited December 2019
    nichomar said:

    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    I assume every labour activist is in Southport, Chester and Birkenhead, any others?
    They might be worried about Wirral West. I wouldn't be too worried about Birkenhead (I know someone on here disagrees with me, but the tribal loyalty is VERY strong with Labour in Merseyside).
    In all honesty, the only two Merseyside seats at 'risk' of not being Labour are Wirral West and Southport (I think Southport definitely ISN'T Labour, but whether it is Lib Dem or Con remains to be seen).
    Not sure whether.... oh. Ellesmere Port and Neston is considered Cheshire. Still it's safe Labour too.
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    Really Corbyn, /Really?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html

    And its Boris getting in the neck...
    Corbyn is trying to goad Trump into wading in, in the hope it’ll be bad for the Tories.

    No doubt No10 have advised against this. Will it work though?

  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    OK.... so we approach the End of Days. Who is going to blow the last Trump?
    :D:D
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Stocky said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
    Did you see the last week spend figures posted earlier, LDs 250k TBP 2.5 million they ain’t going anywhere.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Might prove interesting:

    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1201566094768693252
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Beibheirli_C said:

    OK.... so we approach the End of Days. Who is going to blow the last Trump?
    :D:D

    Some people are still eating please desist.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    RobinWiggs said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    Really Corbyn, /Really?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html

    And its Boris getting in the neck...
    Corbyn is trying to goad Trump into wading in, in the hope it’ll be bad for the Tories.
    No doubt No10 have advised against this. Will it work though?
    I don't know, do you think Trump has learned self control in the last 5 minutes?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited December 2019
    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Beibheirli_C said:

    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
    They could at least post a solitary leaflet. Not that it would happen with Bootle, but over time safe seats can become contestable and they should put at least token effort in in case that should happen.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,314
    nichomar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
    Heard an extract. What makes plainly stupid people expose themselves to public ridicule like that?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    And big money appeared in the market....£90k worth in seconds.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    TheValiant said:

    nichomar said:

    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    I assume every labour activist is in Southport, Chester and Birkenhead, any others?
    They might be worried about Wirral West. I wouldn't be too worried about Birkenhead (I know someone on here disagrees with me, but the tribal loyalty is VERY strong with Labour in Merseyside).
    In all honesty, the only two Merseyside seats at 'risk' of not being Labour are Wirral West and Southport (I think Southport definitely ISN'T Labour, but whether it is Lib Dem or Con remains to be seen).
    Not sure whether.... oh. Ellesmere Port and Neston is considered Cheshire. Still it's safe Labour too.
    Ah Southport, one of the 2015 LD holdouts that didn't make it to 2017. I guess Pugh made the difference?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    And big money appeared in the market....£90k worth in seconds.
    Just to clarify was the big money backing a Tory majority or against a Tory majority?
  • Options
    KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited December 2019
    Leaflet count here in Barnsley East:
    Conservative - Nothing
    Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife
    Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads.
    The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    nichomar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
    Heard an extract. What makes plainly stupid people expose themselves to public ridicule like that?
    Being stupid is like being dead. You don’t know it and it’s only a problem for people around you.

  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    kle4 said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
    They could at least post a solitary leaflet. Not that it would happen with Bootle, but over time safe seats can become contestable and they should put at least token effort in in case that should happen.
    I know Bootle well and it has improved a lot over the years, but it is still more detestable than contestable. The leafy suburbs are on the other side of the city centre - Aigburth, Mossley Hill, Walton, etc.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    And big money appeared in the market....£90k worth in seconds.
    Just to clarify was the big money backing a Tory majority or against a Tory majority?
    Its available on the lay side of a Tory Majority i.e. against...but as that money went up the market moved suddenly 4 points towards a Majority...I think about £10k worth backed it.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    nichomar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
    It was astonishingly stupid (its Boulton by the way)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Andrew said:

    Might prove interesting:

    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1201566094768693252

    How do we know a model is improved before we see the outcome?
    I feel for people attempting it, we all have no idea.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    I think the interesting this in the next run of “known to be closer” polls will be whether a couple show random error towards a wider gap. It’s not super scientific, but if not then I’ll believe we continue to have an uptick in the Labour share.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    We're waiting for/expecting MORI (usually quite good for Con)
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Mike, how could you have approved of the text without knowing which constituencies it was going to? The text makes statements about the constituencies which is true about some and not others and furthermore implies that you're making the statement about thay specific constituency based on your polling expertise. How is that okay?
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    TheValiant said:

    nichomar said:

    TheValiant said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)

    Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle.
    Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
    I assume every labour activist is in Southport, Chester and Birkenhead, any others?
    They might be worried about Wirral West. I wouldn't be too worried about Birkenhead (I know someone on here disagrees with me, but the tribal loyalty is VERY strong with Labour in Merseyside).
    In all honesty, the only two Merseyside seats at 'risk' of not being Labour are Wirral West and Southport (I think Southport definitely ISN'T Labour, but whether it is Lib Dem or Con remains to be seen).
    Not sure whether.... oh. Ellesmere Port and Neston is considered Cheshire. Still it's safe Labour too.
    Ah Southport, one of the 2015 LD holdouts that didn't make it to 2017. I guess Pugh made the difference?
    It must be an easy gig to be a labour activist in Liverpool, too far to go and help anywhere else and just a case of hovering the votes to make sure they don’t forget to actually vote.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Brom said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    And big money appeared in the market....£90k worth in seconds.
    Just to clarify was the big money backing a Tory majority or against a Tory majority?
    Its available on the lay side of a Tory Majority i.e. against...but as that money went up the market moved suddenly 4 points towards a Majority...I think about £10k worth backed it.
    How mature is the electronic trading on betting markets? The relative lack of regulation would suggest to me that the answer is “not very” compared to properly regulated markets.
    Edit - meant automated clearly.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    nichomar said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A couple of million votes cast by now I'd reckon. Kippers might be in double figures

    Who saw the unusual interview with the interim ukip leader on Bolton this morning, if you didn’t and you need to cheer yourself up watch it. It is in someways priceless in its stupid naivety.
    Heard an extract. What makes plainly stupid people expose themselves to public ridicule like that?

    Maybe because they are stupid?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Load of money going in again...£10k just gone through the market today I think. I don't know if it a bot.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Benpointer said:

    For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017:
    Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2%
    Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%

    Yeesh, might as well be the same.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121
    Stocky said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
    Was talking to a Brexit Party supporter today (Con now, as they have no candidate). They were expecting a day-before battle call by Farage, urging all to vote Conservative.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    We're waiting for/expecting MORI (usually quite good for Con)
    Is that definitely out this evening ? I haven’t seen anything trailing it yet on their twitter page .
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    GIN1138 said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    We're waiting for/expecting MORI (usually quite good for Con)
    Got to assume that it will tighten from the previous 16 point lead and see Labour at least up to 32 from 28 so maybe whoever is laying the cash has this in mind.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited December 2019
    We already have figures that 74% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 48% of Remain voters are voting Labour.

    That should be enough to see the Tories win a majority as 2/3 of seats voted Leave and only 1/3 Remain

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201403123186585602?s=20
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,597
    edited December 2019
    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stocky said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
    Was talking to a Brexit Party supporter today (Con now, as they have no candidate). They were expecting a day-before battle call by Farage, urging all to vote Conservative.
    Interesting. Farage must surely be concerned that he could be the one blamed for buggerring Brexit up. The irony.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Have we got leader ratings from Survation or ICM?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    NeilVW said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201561507311628291?s=21

    No change, Tory lead holding firm
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Not sure if this has been posted on here. If it is genuine must be very worrying for next MRP for Tories.

    Anyone know if its correct?


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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    That's a change from 64% implied probability to 66%.

    So fuck all change.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    That's a change from 64% implied probability to 66%.

    So fuck all change.
    1.5 now. It’s enough change to warrant mention.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Somebody is definitely piling money into the market. Another £10k now available on the lay side and £7k on the back side, all appeared in the past few minutes.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,973
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stocky said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Con Maj on BF is stable.
    Con 340+ is drifting like a barge.

    I would expect them to move in the same direction albeit at different rates of change.

    Given the narrowing margin I wonder whether Farage will come under renewed pressure to stand down candidates?
    Or is it too late?
    Was talking to a Brexit Party supporter today (Con now, as they have no candidate). They were expecting a day-before battle call by Farage, urging all to vote Conservative.
    Hope that’s right, but suspect it isn’t. It’d certainly help persuade a lot of Tory remainers to go LD.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2019
    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    That's a change from 64% implied probability to 66%.

    So fuck all change.
    Its not the movement as such, it is the amount of liquidity that has just appeared. It could be as suggested just some city people entering the market.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,740
    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Might prove interesting:

    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1201566094768693252

    How do we know a model is improved before we see the outcome?
    I feel for people attempting it, we all have no idea.
    One outcome doesnt tell you anything. The modelling approach tells you more than the result will (but still not very much unless you are an industry expert).
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,110
    HYUFD said:

    We already have figures that 74% of Leave voters are voting Tory but only 48% of Remain voters are voting Labour.

    That should be enough to see the Tories win a majority as 2/3 of seats voted Leave and only 1/3 Remain

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201403123186585602?s=20

    Obviously, since those numbers are from a YouGov poll showing the Tories with a lead of around 10pp and hence winning a majority. If the poll is wrong then those numbers will be wrong and the Tories might not win a majority. (I think they will win a majority of around 40 FWIW, but it's not nailed on). You're better off focusing on the poll as a whole rather than just pulling some cross-tabs out and extrapolating from that.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Easington could have a high BXP vote. So if Farage does change his stance at last minute (see Marquee_Mark below) I guess it`s possible. I`d want longer odds than the 6/1 on offer though.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Tory upside Spreads are going to be as bigger bloodbath as in 2017 at this rate.

    Mind you some mugs will have been on LD upside spreads 4 weeks ago

    Glad i dont do spread betting.

    I think Hung Parliament should be close to Evs by the end of this week.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,195
    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    Depends how long your commute is.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,110
    Andrew said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kinabalu said:

    Brom said:

    Con majority come in from 1.54 when I left work to 1.51 when I got home. Something potentially going on...

    Depends how long your commute is.
    55 minutes this evening!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Hugh Grant wants to topple IDS, another reason to re elect him

    https://twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/1201398898599907328?s=20
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Which as far as I can tell is simply because Lavery is holding a rally there?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201501270248308736?s=20
This discussion has been closed.