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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battleground
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The best bit of this election - not saying much - is the wonderful absence from our screens of people like Bridgen and Private Francois - long may that continue please!
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170
Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)
Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.
My money would be on Iain Duncan Smith v Emma Little Pengelly to end up in the dance-off first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ
Yes there are Lib Dems to squeeze but its also a place where the yellow vote should hold up well, no BXP either.
If that 72% turnout from Canterbury 2017 returns to the mid 60s as it was for the previous 3 elections then I reckon Duffield will be the loser.
I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
Of course, Mr Taylor bequeathed a majority of 7,700 in 2010, so his fan base can perhaps be overstated.
Damian Hinds has been fighting East Hants pretty hard as it happens, with hustings, responses to my emails and good quality literature.
I’ve had nothing from the Lib Dems at all (aren’t I lucky?) and the candidate doesn’t even live in the seat, so I can only conclude a token effort is being made.
Safe Tory hold.
I'm honest and faithful right up to the end! Woof.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EK8_Lw9X0AEs05e.png:large
The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?
I don't have access to the data, how often has there been a 24% net difference between the two parties (or comparable to that) and what gap was there then?
I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.
He was the dimwitted brother of Prometheus (forethought).
Indeed, if I'm wrong and the defecting Labour Leavers aren't coming home, it may be that most of the Labour upswing in the VI numbers during the course of the campaign has been courtesy of Southern Remain voters, whilst their position has been static or in reverse in the Midlands and Northern marginals (which would also be consistent with some previous suggestions that the Tories may be on course to achieve outsized swings in those same areas.)
If so then the efficiency of Labour's vote could reduce drastically. There aren't that many Con-Lab marginals in play in the South, but there are dozens of potentially vulnerable Labour Leave seats in the North and West Midlands and Northern England.
Taking into account improved Liberal Democrat performances in the South, which could net them a lot of respectable second places but very few actual gains, and the story of the election could turn out to be the Southern Tories almost all surviving but with reduced majorities, whilst the Midlands and Northern Tories make big advances. Not long to wait until we find out.
Last MORI voting intention was 15-19 Nov.
But they then issued leader data for 22-25 Nov but no voting intention?
Now we have leader data for 29 Nov-2 Dec. Will we get voting intention this time?
Cheers, makes sense.
Over and under seats for labour has slowly crept up, from baseline of 200 a few weeks ago, to be at 219 today
Whilst the tories have slipped, from 350 to 340
Lib Dems have been hammered
Are we like in 2017? Something brewing out there, which we ignore?
At this time, in 2017 it was talk of 400 tories seat. This time it's more of a small majority due to a collapse of Labour's Northern wall. This is after 9 years of austerity, cuts to the bone, specially in the North who rely on public services and spending.
So on polling day, you expect many of them to wave the flag and vote for Boris, as a thank you for shafting me for 9 years?? Something does not add up. My gut feeling is, up North, Labour may lose 10-20 seats at the max. Many will end up voting Brexit Party, just to spite everyone.
Would be happy to be proved wrong. Besides Brexit, Boris and Corbyn there are local leaders, many of whom have a personal vote or connection with the people. Which can easily bypass any national trends. As proven by Chris Matheson from Chester.
If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.
In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
I laughed.
Yeah, it's a little confusing which belongs to which poll. I'm seeing different figures reported for the same time period, presumably by journos similarly confused.
https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744
https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/general-election-2017-thousands-turn-13118964
I've not seen anything like that this time around
1) NATO / Trump
2) Racism in football
3) Bob Willis
4) We'll look at GE through eyes of poor people in Grimsby
For several days GE seems to have dropped way down news pecking order.
1. The Tories are already miles ahead amongst the over 40s, so there's little value in their throwing their effort into things like TV debates and radio interviews, which are predominantly listened to by the middle-aged and elderly. It also explains the avoidance of Andrew Neil - the Tories are far less concerned about Boris Johnson failing to turn up to be interviewed before an audience he already has in the bag anyway, and far more concerned about providing extra material for Labour viral video clips
2. Their primary effort is therefore focussed on social media, where they are testing all sorts of messages (hence the minor news stories about videos where the BBC have objected to being quoted out-of-context and such like,) prior to a gigantic advertising blitz in the final week of the campaign. Hit the younger voters over and over with well-targeted messages to try to sway a crucial few percent of the Labour vote in their direction, and convert a small majority into a large one
Incidentally does anyone know anywhere a way of downloading the results (by party) of each seat in 1997? I can't find a chart of that anywhere.
Boris is someone who thinks loyalty only works one way so if he wins big (huge if) I expect a significant one.
Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.
The signs continue to look cautiously encouraging for the Tories, but we obviously shan't know until the votes are counted.
Yes, that’s my view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q
I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.
Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!
While Boris gets to look all Prime Ministerial with his closing speech and delivers a withering PPB at the end on Corbyn
I have a feeling we won't be seeing a JezFest again anytime soon.
Recent studies have cast doubt on the extent to which the animal retains consciousness after slaughter, but the studies are inconclusive (and there's probably a lot of bias involved). However, there's also a lot of evidence around the effectiveness of pre-stunning; in particular around whether the failure rates are really as low as typically reported by the industry. It's very clear that a failed stunning (particularly percussive stunning) results in a huge amount of pain for the animal.
To reiterate, these are value systems thousands of years old that were actively seeking to minimise suffering to animals. There's a genuine debate in Judaism as to whether battery-farmed chickens can be considered kosher at all, such are the standards in which farms keep the birds.
So yeah, there are worse things. I think it's really hard to be legitimately against ritual slaughter without also being against a sizeable proportion of modern farming practices, to say nothing of how we treat animals in wider society.
What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?
https://twitter.com/_KimButterworth/status/1202288766578286593?s=20