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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

As I have said repeatedly over the years leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. The reason is that this form of questioning is what pollsters do best – asking for opinions not seeking to get poll participants to predict whether they might take part in some future event and what they will actually do.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

    It's an argument that allows something else more serious to be hidden. Question is what is being hidden,
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

    Lol. What a surprise
  • Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.

    Not even Michael Foot was as low as Corbyn is... If it wasn't such an important election - none of the above and a spoilt ballet would be the best option.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Very interesting graph. Suggests to me that leadership ratings are not such a great guide to election results.

    Blair obviously did better than Howard in 2005. Cameron got a majority in 2015 but didn't in 2010, despite his ratings being lower in 2015 and the Labour leader's ratings being higher.

    What is remarkable is how far Corbyn has fallen since 2017. His ratings have improved over the campaign, but nowhere near as much as last time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2019

    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

    Sounds like talent to me, although it's difficult to hear because a camera click goes off at the precise moment that he says the first syllable of the word.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    I never realised Blair had a lower rating that Howard in 2005. And in fact a lower rating than Johnson has now. Blair got a 66 seat majority despite this. I dont think Johnson will beat that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

    Lol. What a surprise
    You think it sounds like talent? With a "T" sound at the start and a "T" sound at the end? Don't pick either of them up when I listen.

    If you want to think I am just peddling a line, fair enough. But I'm not.
  • I never realised Blair had a lower rating that Howard in 2005. And in fact a lower rating than Johnson has now. Blair got a 66 seat majority despite this. I dont think Johnson will beat that.

    I don’t either. Worth pointing out that 2005 Labour was only 3% ahead in the final vote, however. And Blair only scored 36% of the vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2019
    Who would have thought the election would finally come alive over the mishearing of a word spoken by Johnson at the precise moment a camera click goes off. The whole of Twitter is obsessed by it, with many still affirming he said "colour".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.

    Assuming the Conservatives win, I expect the next round of local elections will be torrid.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I never realised Blair had a lower rating that Howard in 2005. And in fact a lower rating than Johnson has now. Blair got a 66 seat majority despite this. I dont think Johnson will beat that.

    I wonder if that is a typo.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT
  • My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.
  • eek said:

    Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.

    Not even Michael Foot was as low as Corbyn is... If it wasn't such an important election - none of the above and a spoilt ballet would be the best option.
    This measures net satisfaction. It does not measure intensity of feeling among those dissatisfied with both (though such evidence as I have seen suggests that Jeremy Corbyn is indeed more disliked than Boris Johnson). The following are possible:

    1) They abstain or spoil their ballot paper
    2) They vote for another party
    3) They decide that the choice is important, that one or other is more objectionable than the other, and make a choice between them
    4) They decide to try to game their vote to work towards a hung Parliament

    I expect different voters will end up in different places.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

    Lol. What a surprise
    You think it sounds like talent? With a "T" sound at the start and a "T" sound at the end? Don't pick either of them up when I listen.

    If you want to think I am just peddling a line, fair enough. But I'm not.
    Theres a clear 'a' sound and a clear nt at the end. Colour isn't even close to what is said
    And ch 4 have admitted they cocked up and that he said talent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Bozo looks like being the most unpopular winner ever. And history suggests that after election the only way is down,
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    I watched that rally live and he was talking about an Australian points-style immigration style which allows people "of talent" to come to the UK. It is quite blatantly "talent" , and anyone on Twitter seeking to whip up a storm about it are merely spreading a smear, seemingly hoping no one will actually watch the video which clearly shows him saying "talent".
  • Labour members will deny and deny and deny again that their decision to insist on having Jeremy Corbyn as their leader is what killed off Labour's electoral chances, but these numbers tell the true story - at a time when Boris Johnson's approval rating is -20.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    If only there were more people of talent on offer for us to vote for?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    Bozo looks like being the most unpopular winner ever. And history suggests that after election the only way is down,

    Cameron, 2015? :)
  • Its spelled "Luxury Yacht" but its pronounced "Throatwobbler Mangrove"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    It's like that blue/gold dress thing except it isn't. He says talent.

    It also doesn't really fit with the previous Johnson is a racist narrative that he should use the uber correct "people of colour" as opposed to, say, "mulattoes" or "postboxes".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    The audio for that clip is clearly coming from the microphone Johnson's holding and so isn't obscured by camera noises like the other version is.
  • Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    On the Indy website, it really sounds like colour, but your post clearly says talent. Weird.
  • FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
    That's probably the biggest indicator - he was +33 in 2017 with 18 to 24. The youthquake ain't happening this time. University seats will be interesting to watch.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    "Assuming Johnson’s Tories do win then he’ll have the distinction of winning with the worst ratings on record. "

    Mike, I assume the 2005 graphic is wrong? You have Blair winning with lower ratings than Johnson (and even more unlikely, Howard)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
    That's probably the biggest indicator - he was +33 in 2017 with 18 to 24. The youthquake ain't happening this time. University seats will be interesting to watch.
    Any student interested in politics should be voting in their home seat. The uni towns are guaranteed to be electing remainers anyway.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Let's be honest, this election is as good as over. These MORI ratings just confirm the 25-75 Tory majority narrative.

    Corbyn has been a disaster. Part of me hopes that tactical voting can limit any Tory advance but just can't see it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.

    Don’t be sad. 😔
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    On the Indy website, it really sounds like colour, but your post clearly says talent. Weird.
    Maybe because of the camera noise on the other version. A camera click goes off at the precise moment he starts to say the word.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    If only there were more people of talent on offer for us to vote for?
    If only there were some / any people of talent on offer for us to vote for?

    FTFY - but we really have a choice of idiots...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    On the Indy website, it really sounds like colour, but your post clearly says talent. Weird.
    It's because this is better audio in my post. As AndyJS says, this one probably comes straight from Boris's mic. The other source was muffled with extraneous noise.

    People can perhaps be forgiven an initial mishearing, especially when mixed with Channel 4's outrageous subtitle. What is not forgiveable is the thousands of twats on Twitter, still determined to believe it is "colour" despite now-ample evidence that they are entirely wrong.

    They are prejudiced, and they look like imbeciles.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    I've said here before (and Mike agreed) that positive ratings are more important than net ratings, because in our divided landscape it's more important to have a base of people who think you're great and are almost impervious to criticism than a load of people who think you're sort of OK. That is probably more consolation for Swinson, since if the LibDems got 29% she'd be over the moon, but it also gives a floor for Corbyn (I forget his rating but it's usually 25ish).
  • FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
    That's probably the biggest indicator - he was +33 in 2017 with 18 to 24. The youthquake ain't happening this time. University seats will be interesting to watch.
    They will still overwhelmingly vote Labour. But perhaps what we will see is a lot less turning out, especially as end of term for many.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Labour members will deny and deny and deny again that their decision to insist on having Jeremy Corbyn as their leader is what killed off Labour's electoral chances, but these numbers tell the true story - at a time when Boris Johnson's approval rating is -20.

    We'll never know I guess. It seems likely that Corbyn will get a higher vote share than Miliband, Brown, Foot, Kinnock (87).
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    FPT:

    A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.

    1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.

    2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.

    3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2019

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    One of my ideas is to compare the first 20 or 30 results to the latest MRP data. If it's very similar, it almost certainly means the vast majority of the MRP forecasts are also going to be correct, since the first 30 results are sort of like a random sample of the 650 constituencies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I never realised Blair had a lower rating that Howard in 2005. And in fact a lower rating than Johnson has now. Blair got a 66 seat majority despite this. I dont think Johnson will beat that.

    The Tories, of course, won more votes in England than Labour in 2005.
  • Labour members will deny and deny and deny again that their decision to insist on having Jeremy Corbyn as their leader is what killed off Labour's electoral chances, but these numbers tell the true story - at a time when Boris Johnson's approval rating is -20.

    Who is the alternative? Where is the charismatic, centrist front-bencher? The moderates' self-exclusion from the Shadow Cabinet has killed their chances.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    This thread will come as no surprise to anybody who has been out talking to voters.
  • What this furore demonstrates is that politicians need to learn to speak properly. You need to enunciate all of the syllables so that there can be no confusion about the nuances of your utterances...

    Tony Blair. Used to Speak. In groups of. Two or Three Words. With Pauses. There could be. No Confusion about. What he said.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Some interesting takes from Ashcroft focus groups:

    Perhaps surprisingly, some of our 2017 Labour leave voters had a higher opinion of Boris Johnson than their Conservative counterparts: “He’s actually stood up to people. He won’t be bullied;” “He’s quite ruthless and bloody-minded. If he says he’s going to do it he’ll do it, regardless of the consequences, which is what I think you need;” “For me, the election is about getting the Tories in. I believe Boris will get the deal through. At the end of the day, we’ve had a referendum and the result was the result.” Some still had their doubts, though: “You’d like to think he’d get it done, but you just don’t know, do you? He said we’d come out on 31 October, it would definitely happen.”



    Many of those leaning towards the Tories were helped along by their view of the Labour leader: “I think he’s a fantasist. He comes out with things that are just not plausible, that you would never believe;” “We’ve all voted Labour before, but can you imagine him and Diane Abbott running the country?” “He won’t even say what they’re going to campaign for. How can you vote for a party that won’t give you their view of what they’re going to do in the future?” “At first I did like him, but over time I think he’s the same as everybody else.”
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    On the Indy website, it really sounds like colour, but your post clearly says talent. Weird.
    It's because this is better audio in my post. As AndyJS says, this one probably comes straight from Boris's mic. The other source was muffled with extraneous noise.

    People can perhaps be forgiven an initial mishearing, especially when mixed with Channel 4's outrageous subtitle. What is not forgiveable is the thousands of twats on Twitter, still determined to believe it is "colour" despite now-ample evidence that they are entirely wrong.

    They are prejudiced, and they look like imbeciles.
    It's talent not colour.

    Does that mean Boris is not a racist? No!

    His past clearly shows that he is a racist and freely uses racist language to boost his popularity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    One of my ideas is to compare the first 20 or 30 results to the latest MRP data. If it's very similar, it almost certainly means the vast majority of the MRP forecasts are also going to be right.
    Great idea. Is the MRP data available to download / scrape?
  • Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    Strange. It definitely sounds like talent in that clip. But the other one sounded like colour.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo looks like being the most unpopular winner ever. And history suggests that after election the only way is down,

    I suspect the Tories will get slaughtered in 2024, though that is assuming the Labour Party actually manage to get their act together this time.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    Where are you scraping the data from?
  • Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.

    And Swinson can't take advantage of it, what a mistake not to have elected Ed Davey.
  • To summarise - Johnson is hugely uinpopular; Corbyn is historically unpopular; so the Tories win.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited December 2019

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    Yes he has - his critics are just stirring the pot
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    Where are you scraping the data from?
    https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/

    https://www.pippanorris.com/data

    It requires a bit of processing to match things up as name formats are slightly different.
  • Andy_JS said:
    It’s not really given his previous pronouncements on the matter.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    Strange. It definitely sounds like talent in that clip. But the other one sounded like colour.
    On twitter the say that the fat lying racist said colour and the biased BBC doctored it. So I'm undecided :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Here’s a parallel universe scenario for you. At the weekend the Labour and LibDem (/Remain Alliance) parties jointly announce that the risks of giving Bozo a majority for the next five years are so great that they have agreed to which party in each seat voters should give their support. And posted the recommendations on all of their websites. How much difference if any do we think this would make?

    For Labour I’d have thought there isn’t really any downside (yet I am sure they would oppose it the most vigorously). For the LibDems there is the risk that being tainted with Corbynism would lose them some Tory remainers, whilst maximising the chance of pulling Labour voters across in key seats like Esher against Raab.
  • FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
    That's probably the biggest indicator - he was +33 in 2017 with 18 to 24. The youthquake ain't happening this time. University seats will be interesting to watch.
    They will still overwhelmingly vote Labour. But perhaps what we will see is a lot less turning out, especially as end of term for many.
    Will be interesting to see if there is a move away to the yellow peril.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo looks like being the most unpopular winner ever. And history suggests that after election the only way is down,

    Who cares, he will have won?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Brom said:

    Some interesting takes from Ashcroft focus groups:

    Perhaps surprisingly, some of our 2017 Labour leave voters had a higher opinion of Boris Johnson than their Conservative counterparts: “He’s actually stood up to people. He won’t be bullied;” “He’s quite ruthless and bloody-minded. If he says he’s going to do it he’ll do it, regardless of the consequences, which is what I think you need;” “For me, the election is about getting the Tories in. I believe Boris will get the deal through. At the end of the day, we’ve had a referendum and the result was the result.” Some still had their doubts, though: “You’d like to think he’d get it done, but you just don’t know, do you? He said we’d come out on 31 October, it would definitely happen.”



    Many of those leaning towards the Tories were helped along by their view of the Labour leader: “I think he’s a fantasist. He comes out with things that are just not plausible, that you would never believe;” “We’ve all voted Labour before, but can you imagine him and Diane Abbott running the country?” “He won’t even say what they’re going to campaign for. How can you vote for a party that won’t give you their view of what they’re going to do in the future?” “At first I did like him, but over time I think he’s the same as everybody else.”

    Some fantastic quotes in there as usual.
    “Free broadband. Great, but what about healthcare? At least you can look up what you’re dying of.”
  • FPT:

    twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

    Even the yuff don't like Jezza anymore. I'm sad not likely to be another JezFest.
    That's probably the biggest indicator - he was +33 in 2017 with 18 to 24. The youthquake ain't happening this time. University seats will be interesting to watch.
    They will still overwhelmingly vote Labour. But perhaps what we will see is a lot less turning out, especially as end of term for many.
    Will be interesting to see if there is a move away to the yellow peril.
    Given how non-existent the Lib Dem campaign has been, I doubt it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    murali_s said:

    Let's be honest, this election is as good as over. These MORI ratings just confirm the 25-75 Tory majority narrative.

    Think so. And I would rather buy at 75 than sell at 25.

    Second Leave win. First one, June 2016, by binary vote. Now, Dec 2019, by FPTP.

    The cognescenti have lost. We must accept it and be quiet for a while. I plan to be. Plenty in life other than politics. I might learn a language.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    BETTING POST

    Ladbrokes have cut Plaid under 4.5 seats to 1/2. But 4/6 still available at Paddys. They need to hold Ceredigion and gain Ynys Mon to get to 5. They're slight favs for Ceredigion and best price 6/4 for Ynys. I'd say chance of winning both are 60% x 45% =27%. I'd price it at under 1/3, over 9/4. But DYOR.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Very interesting graph. Suggests to me that leadership ratings are not such a great guide to election results.

    Blair obviously did better than Howard in 2005. Cameron got a majority in 2015 but didn't in 2010, despite his ratings being lower in 2015 and the Labour leader's ratings being higher.

    What is remarkable is how far Corbyn has fallen since 2017. His ratings have improved over the campaign, but nowhere near as much as last time.

    Really? I think the ratings mirror the overall shifts in those elections remarkably well. 2005 is the biggest outlier, but Labour was coming off record high seat totals that were too large to overcome in one election and even so they won with an embarrassingly low share of the vote.

    The historical precedent of this chart clearly indicates Tory Maj. Boris is very low, true, but Corbyn is deep in the "contempt zone", beyond even Foot and Kinnock.

    Boris' lead is 6 times the size of May's...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Is this talent/colour nonsense what Twitter is like all the time? Glad I'm not on it; it sounds ghastly. And exhausting.

    To move things on: lots of Tory Facebook ads (I'm on that one for some reason) mocking Corbyn's "neutral" position on Brexit. I think this is an excellent attack line. Allows them to stay positive ("get Britain out of neutral", accompanied with a picture of a gearstick), and neutralises Corbyn's biggest strength. He's so much more effective when he's campaigning against something, even if he has no clue what he's for. Utterly ironic that, after decades of being against everything, when it really mattered he was forced by circumstance to be indifferent to the thing that matters most.
  • fpt
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My sense is a Tory landslide is fading into the distance at the moment. Most likely result is a majority of between 20 and 60 but they could still fall short of 326 if the last week goes badly.

    I'm thinking exactly the opposite. All the anecdotes point to a larger Tory victory. The last person to enthuse the WWC and the lower middle class was Blair. It could be 1983, 1997 or even 1931, although I think the different demoses in Scotland and NI preclude the latter.
    I think that the plural of demos is demoi
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    Where are you scraping the data from?
    https://election.pressassociation.com/general-election/estimated-declaration-times-by-time/

    https://www.pippanorris.com/data

    It requires a bit of processing to match things up as name formats are slightly different.
    Ta.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    BETTING POST

    Ladbrokes have cut Plaid under 4.5 seats to 1/2. But 4/6 still available at Paddys. They need to hold Ceredigion and gain Ynys Mon to get to 5. They're slight favs for Ceredigion and best price 6/4 for Ynys. I'd say chance of winning both are 60% x 45% =27%. I'd price it at under 1/3, over 9/4. But DYOR.

    Alternatively, you can get 11/10 Plaid under 3.5 seats with BF
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Ok I now have the current MRP data set. I will try and find time to add that to my code, so it is ready for the new old / GE night.
  • IanB2 said:

    Here’s a parallel universe scenario for you. At the weekend the Labour and LibDem (/Remain Alliance) parties jointly announce that the risks of giving Bozo a majority for the next five years are so great that they have agreed to which party in each seat voters should give their support. And posted the recommendations on all of their websites. How much difference if any do we think this would make?

    For Labour I’d have thought there isn’t really any downside (yet I am sure they would oppose it the most vigorously). For the LibDems there is the risk that being tainted with Corbynism would lose them some Tory remainers, whilst maximising the chance of pulling Labour voters across in key seats like Esher against Raab.

    Would look like an alliance of losers with Tory remainers who were thinking of voting Lib Dem switching back to the Tories for fear of Corbyn.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    If Boris is in favour of people of talent, explain how Priti Patel got into the Cabinet.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019

    fpt

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My sense is a Tory landslide is fading into the distance at the moment. Most likely result is a majority of between 20 and 60 but they could still fall short of 326 if the last week goes badly.

    I'm thinking exactly the opposite. All the anecdotes point to a larger Tory victory. The last person to enthuse the WWC and the lower middle class was Blair. It could be 1983, 1997 or even 1931, although I think the different demoses in Scotland and NI preclude the latter.
    I think that the plural of demos is demoi
    Yes, these same plurals apply in both Ancient and Modern Greek.
  • camel said:

    Byronic said:

    If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

    https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20



    It's TALENT

    Strange. It definitely sounds like talent in that clip. But the other one sounded like colour.
    On twitter the say that the fat lying racist said colour and the biased BBC doctored it. So I'm undecided :)
    Apparently the BBC have form. There's some guy on an environment forum I frequent who's convinced that the BBC hacked into Stephen Hawking's voice synthesiser in order to fool people into thinking he was worried about climate change.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Puzzled not to have heard from CHB about the number of views of the Britain's Got Colour clip on Twitter.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    murali_s said:

    Let's be honest, this election is as good as over. These MORI ratings just confirm the 25-75 Tory majority narrative.

    Think so. And I would rather buy at 75 than sell at 25.

    Second Leave win. First one, June 2016, by binary vote. Now, Dec 2019, by FPTP.

    The cognescenti have lost. We must accept it and be quiet for a while. I plan to be. Plenty in life other than politics. I might learn a language.
    Good for you. We all need to move on. And Remainers need to grieve, but accept.

    I yearn to forget about politics of all stripes. It is my big resolution for 2020, IF Boris gets a decent majority.
  • Good grief, this thread. Another early release disaster. I imagine this will be all over the news by tea time.

    https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Endillion said:

    Is this talent/colour nonsense what Twitter is like all the time? Glad I'm not on it; it sounds ghastly. And exhausting.

    Twitter's fine as long as you follow sensible people. If you follow gobshites, then oddly enough your timeline will be full of shite.
  • Endillion said:

    Is this talent/colour nonsense what Twitter is like all the time? Glad I'm not on it; it sounds ghastly. And exhausting.

    Twitter's fine as long as you follow sensible people. If you follow gobshites, then oddly enough your timeline will be full of shite.
    There are sensible people on twitter? I thought they had all been driven off the platform due to the madness of it all.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    If Boris is in favour of people of talent, explain how Priti Patel got into the Cabinet.
    She has more talent than the other options and the job couldn't be left vacant...

    Look it's hard...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    My understanding is Boris has been using this phrase "people of talent" regularly on the campaign trail.

    If Boris is in favour of people of talent, explain how Priti Patel got into the Cabinet.
    Its not difficult, even Jo Swinson was once a Minister
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Good grief, this thread. Another early release disaster. I imagine this will be all over the news by tea time.

    https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943

    Lead the One O'Clock News, someone has already been sacked apparently. Utterly horrific.
  • I wonder how many will tune into the debate ? At the end of the week, with the election coming sooner, there may be much more interest this time.
  • Mr. Endillion, Twitter varies a lot.

    My politics list is often very testy. The history one is generally civilised and interesting.

    I once had a minor dogpile because I posted what I thought was the most bland, agreeable statement (books should be judged by quality not the race/gender of the author), which turned out to apparently be a sign of my white and patriarchal privilege. Boo hiss, me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2019

    Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    What I think would be extremely useful would be to start from the predictions of the YouGov MRP model, and then, as the first results start coming in, compare the YouGov predicted vote shares for each constituency against the actuals. You could then use that to calculate a live update to the YouGov prediction (with error bars).

    I've been thinking about the statistics involved in this - obviously you'd have to build some kind of measure as to whether the deviations from the model's predicted vote shares in the early results were statistically significant, but if for example you had the first 10 results and in all of them Labour were doing a couple of percent better than YouGov expected, then you could probably predict with some degree of confidence that the final result would be better for Labour than the starting prediction, and estimate the delta.

    As a refinement you could take account of the region and other characteristics of the seat - for example, your first ten seats might be mainly northern safe Labour seats which wouldn't be typical, so ideally you'd want to increase your level of uncertainty accordingly.

    We have some expert statisticians here who I'm sure could advise, but I think this might be a very good way to get an early take on any deviation between the exit poll and the final tallies.

    Edit: I see @Andy_JS has already suggested something similar.
  • Based on data from 1979 the Mori net leadership satisfaction data point to a Tory lead of 8.8pp rather than the 12pp of their headline poll. In the ten previous elections in the sample the actual result was in line with the prediction from the leadership ratings (within about 1pp) 7 times. Of the other two elections, the result was in the same direction as the headline poll (ie better for the government in this case) twice (1979 and 2005) and in the opposite direction once (1992). A similar error to 1992 would put us at around 6pp, hung parliament territory.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Good grief, this thread. Another early release disaster. I imagine this will be all over the news by tea time.

    https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943

    It should be as it highlights a problem:-

    Boris gave money to the police (20,000 new officers)
    He gave money to the prison service for more jail spaces.

    What he didn't do was give the money the other bits of the Justice system desperately need.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Andy_JS said:
    In years to come we’ll look back on this election and wonder how it was that voters came to be so hoodwinked by a vision of false promises.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Interesting tweet from Donald Tusk yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1202532538033590272
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    tlg86 said:

    Good grief, this thread. Another early release disaster. I imagine this will be all over the news by tea time.

    https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943

    Lead the One O'Clock News, someone has already been sacked apparently. Utterly horrific.
    Yep - that's going to ensure people join the probation service. When overworked pick the wrong case to work on and your career could go up in smoke.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019

    Mr. Endillion, Twitter varies a lot.

    My politics list is often very testy. The history one is generally civilised and interesting.

    I once had a minor dogpile because I posted what I thought was the most bland, agreeable statement (books should be judged by quality not the race/gender of the author), which turned out to apparently be a sign of my white and patriarchal privilege. Boo hiss, me.

    This is a particular phenomemon of the last 30 years, but in the last 10 identity politics of this form have often acted as a sort of redirection, sublimation and replacement for concrete avenues of social and political change, or substantive challenge to the current economic and political consensus. They are a blind alley for the left.
  • Good grief, this thread. Another early release disaster. I imagine this will be all over the news by tea time.

    https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943

    Ironically, this will probably help the government which has been running this mess for the past decade. The instinctive reaction is not to blame cuts to the police, courts or parole, or even mental health, but to vote for Pritti to throw away the key.
  • Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    What I think would be extremely useful would be to start from the predictions of the YouGov MRP model, and then, as the first results start coming in, compare the YouGov predicted vote shares for each constituency against the actuals. You could then use that to calculate a live update to the YouGov prediction (with error bars).

    I've been thinking about the statistics involved in this - obviously you'd have to build some kind of measure as to whether the deviations from the model's predicted vote shares in the early results were statistically significant, but if for example you had the first 10 results and in all of them Labour were doing a couple of percent better than YouGov expected, then you could probably predict with some degree of confidence that the final result would be better for Labour than the starting prediction, and estimate the delta.

    As a refinement you could take account of the region and other characteristics of the seat - for example, your first ten seats might be mainly northern safe Labour seats which wouldn't be typical, so ideally you'd want to increase your level of uncertainty accordingly.

    We have some expert statisticians here who I'm sure could advise, but I think this might be a very good way to get an early take on any deviation between the exit poll and the final tallies.
    Liking this idea....I now have the MRP data into my python setup....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting tweet from Donald Tusk yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1202532538033590272

    What a fucking stupid thing to tweet, It's so bad and silly I must check my prejudices: is it really real? Did he really tweet that?
  • Just to repeat from last thread.

    I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.

    I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.

    If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).

    If you want me to do some swing formulas etc, PM me and you can send me your file.
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    In five of the last six elections, counting this one, the leaders of both major parties have had negative scores, so that's the norm now. The only previous occasion where both leaders were at -10 or lower was in 2005, when Blair, who had a much lower score than his Tory opponent Howard, won. In the current election campaign the Tory and Labour leaders each have scores twice as bad as their predecessors in that year. Blair was the sitting PM, like Johnson; he was also Labour, like Corbyn. I wouldn't read too much into these figures.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    IanB2 said:

    Here’s a parallel universe scenario for you. At the weekend the Labour and LibDem (/Remain Alliance) parties jointly announce that the risks of giving Bozo a majority for the next five years are so great that they have agreed to which party in each seat voters should give their support. And posted the recommendations on all of their websites. How much difference if any do we think this would make?

    For Labour I’d have thought there isn’t really any downside (yet I am sure they would oppose it the most vigorously). For the LibDems there is the risk that being tainted with Corbynism would lose them some Tory remainers, whilst maximising the chance of pulling Labour voters across in key seats like Esher against Raab.

    At this stage in the cycle, serious risk of enraging lots of committed voters into backing the Tories. Earlier in the cycle, would have been less damaging as more time for people to calm down. Longer term, terminal damage to the Lib Dems; less so to Labour, as you say.

    Short term: meh. Might swing ~20-30 seats, possibly but not definitely enough to deprive the Tories of a majority. Might plausibly be a net positive for the Tories, seeing as most voters aren't strongly affiliated enough to a party to care what they think you should do (or are so affiliated that they'll vote for them even if told not to).

    It's a trick that only works once, though. I wouldn't want to be trying to defend that decision as a PPC in 2024.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Wow looks like I missed an entire scandal's life cycle in the space of a lunch break.

    Fwiw I just listened to the clip and it's definitely talent, you can hear the t at the end. In any case it's too unsubtle for Boris to say something like that, indeed when I first saw someone quote the phrase I presumed it was said by Pat Mountain or equivalent.
This discussion has been closed.