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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer formally launches his campaign and moves to a 73% chance on Betfair

The frontrunner in the betting to succeed Corbyn, Keir Starmer, has formally launched his campaign and has seen his position in the betting rise even further. At his launch he was blunt about where LAB stands and the huge challenges ahead. According to the Guardian he said:

Read the full story here

Toms

We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

Alistair

Well I'm not repairing this hole.

maaarsh

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

Gabs3

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

Exactly. There is no reason to ever have any single candidate at 70%+ in a crowded field. So many random events could take him out or elevate one of the many other candidates. Pretty much everyone else in the book is value at these odds.

ydoethur

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

JohnO

The 2005 election took place on May 5th. But that of 1966 was held on March 31st. And that’s a VERY long time ago (though I can just remember it as a precocious 10 year old).

tlg86

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

matt

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

tlg86

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

vik

Toms said:

We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

His good looks fit the heroic leader archetype perfectly..

I predict that he'll easily defeat Boris.

HYUFD

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

Burnham did not lead any Yougov Labour members polls unlike Starmer

Andy_JS

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I don't understand why Keir Starmer is so popular when Lisa Nandy seem the obvious choice in my opinion.

matt

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Perhaps. But it’s all opinion. People have forgotten how Cameron made Corbyn look like a particularly dim retard at EVERY pmq. May’s startling incompetence and general “why am I PM” attitude could make anybody look approaching competent.*

NB that could also include Johnson. Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising.

HYUFD

vik said:

Toms said:

We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

His good looks fit the heroic leader archetype perfectly..

I predict that he'll easily defeat Boris.

If he becomes PM it will likely be with the LDs like Cameron in 2010, the Tories have too big a majority to overturn in 1 election with a Labour majority

Casino_Royale

Starmer may well romp home, everything looks in his favour at the moment, but I've topped up on Nandy.

At 10/1 (ish) I think she's value.

vik

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

If Remain had won, I'm pretty sure Cameron would have stayed on until the next general election, and would have then easily defeated Corbyn.

HYUFD

Starmer says he 'will not trash the Labour governments of Blair and Brown or the leadership of Corbyn' and that Corbyn was right to fight austerity


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51077811

Casino_Royale

Andy_JS said:

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I don't understand why Keir Starmer is so popular when Lisa Nandy seem the obvious choice in my opinion.

Starmer's showing as much socialist leg as he can whilst hanging onto hopeful centre-lefters.

That'll probably be enough in Labour, with Nandy finishing second.

tlg86

matt said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Perhaps. But it’s all opinion. People have forgotten how Cameron made Corbyn look like a particularly dim retard at EVERY pmq. May’s startling incompetence and general “why am I PM” attitude could make anybody look approaching competent.*

NB that could also include Johnson. Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising.

And Corbyn still beat Cameron in the 2016 local elections.

HYUFD

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

UKIP would certainly have surged at the Tories expense

ydoethur

Foster returns as First Minister:

Stormont deal: Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill new top NI ministers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51077397

But these speeches are ominous. They all want different things and seem determined to all try to get them. This could go sour again very quickly.

matt

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

UKIP would certainly have surged at the Tories expense

Certainly?

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

matt said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Perhaps. But it’s all opinion. People have forgotten how Cameron made Corbyn look like a particularly dim retard at EVERY pmq. May’s startling incompetence and general “why am I PM” attitude could make anybody look approaching competent.*

NB that could also include Johnson. Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising.

And Corbyn still beat Cameron in the 2016 local elections.

Kinnock outscored Thatcher in the popular vote in 1985. As I recall, he lost the next two general elections as well.

Toms

vik said:

Toms said:

We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

His good looks fit the heroic leader archetype perfectly..

I predict that he'll easily defeat Boris.

I get the impression that Starmer may be a member of sane left. If so I cross my fingers for his success. My guess is that his odds may improve further with the proviso that "There's nowt so queer as folk".

Casino_Royale

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

We don't know, of course. But you can't game the fundamentals.

There'd likely have been higher immigration first, as the economy boomed up to 2007, and then the 2008-2009 Great Recession would have hit us far harder and, without a UK currency to take the blow, been followed by far higher unemployment post 2009 and a nasty house price crash.

If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have exited the Euro, and possibly the EU too, even earlier.

SirNorfolkPassmore

tlg86 said:

matt said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Perhaps. But it’s all opinion. People have forgotten how Cameron made Corbyn look like a particularly dim retard at EVERY pmq. May’s startling incompetence and general “why am I PM” attitude could make anybody look approaching competent.*

NB that could also include Johnson. Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising.

And Corbyn still beat Cameron in the 2016 local elections.

By 1%. For comparison, Miliband beat Cameron by 7% in the equivalent elections in 2012.

As Matt says, it's all opinion with this sort of counterfactual. FWIW, I think the Tories would have won comfortably in 2020 had the referendum been won by Remain. The economy would have been reasonably robust (it isn't absolutely terrible now, but is mired in uncertainty). Corbyn would still have been Corbyn, and antisemitism would still be a big problem for him. Who would the Tory leader be? Well, possibly Johnson... a narrow referendum defeat wouldn't have killed his career by any means (indeed I think he actually wanted a narrow defeat) and he'd have been brought back to the Cabinet in the post-referendum healing.

SirNorfolkPassmore

ydoethur said:

Foster returns as First Minister:

Stormont deal: Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill new top NI ministers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51077397

But these speeches are ominous. They all want different things and seem determined to all try to get them. This could go sour again very quickly.

They're no "Chuckle Brothers" (as McGuinness and Paisley were rather surprisingly dubbed by the end). In the absence of agreement on some big points, you need the personal chemistry and I'm afraid neither O'Neill nor Foster strike me as fun in any respect.

Casino_Royale

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Perhaps. But it’s all opinion. People have forgotten how Cameron made Corbyn look like a particularly dim retard at EVERY pmq. May’s startling incompetence and general “why am I PM” attitude could make anybody look approaching competent.*

NB that could also include Johnson. Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising.

And Corbyn still beat Cameron in the 2016 local elections.

By 1%. For comparison, Miliband beat Cameron by 7% in the equivalent elections in 2012.

As Matt says, it's all opinion with this sort of counterfactual. FWIW, I think the Tories would have won comfortably in 2020 had the referendum been won by Remain. The economy would have been reasonably robust (it isn't absolutely terrible now, but is mired in uncertainty). Corbyn would still have been Corbyn, and antisemitism would still be a big problem for him. Who would the Tory leader be? Well, possibly Johnson... a narrow referendum defeat wouldn't have killed his career by any means (indeed I think he actually wanted a narrow defeat) and he'd have been brought back to the Cabinet in the post-referendum healing.

The main dynamic is that people want fiscal continence but they also hate austerity.

2016 was the inflexion point when they'd had enough of the latter, but as 2019 showed they don't trust those who just ignore the former.

Boris (or more accurately his team) judged it right, in my view.

HYUFD

matt said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

UKIP would certainly have surged at the Tories expense

Certainly?

Of course, if Leave had narrowly lost UKIP would have seen an SNP style surge at the next general election unless Cameron and Osborne were replaced by a Leaver like Boris, so it may have resulted in the same outcome for the Tories anyway

SirNorfolkPassmore

Casino_Royale said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

We don't know, of course. But you can't game the fundamentals.

There'd likely have been higher immigration first, as the economy boomed up to 2007, and then the 2008-2009 Great Recession would have hit us far harder and, without a UK currency to take the blow, been followed by far higher unemployment post 2009 and a nasty house price crash.

If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have exited the Euro, and possibly the EU too, even earlier.

I'm a bit confused by your point.

I think the original reference to "euro referendum" was to the 2016 European Referendum.

There was never a referendum on membership of the Euro currency, and we were never in it (although we were briefly in the ERM). Was that what you meant?

viewcode

matt said:

...Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising...

Yes, I read that too. Parris thinks that Johnson is alcoholic-turned-barman: he's so familiar with the tricks of politics and journalism he can recognise them in others and deprecate them. Parris made a good argument with examples, and he might be right.

Casino_Royale

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Casino_Royale said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

We don't know, of course. But you can't game the fundamentals.

There'd likely have been higher immigration first, as the economy boomed up to 2007, and then the 2008-2009 Great Recession would have hit us far harder and, without a UK currency to take the blow, been followed by far higher unemployment post 2009 and a nasty house price crash.

If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have exited the Euro, and possibly the EU too, even earlier.

I'm a bit confused by your point.

I think the original reference to "euro referendum" was to the 2016 European Referendum.

There was never a referendum on membership of the Euro currency, and we were never in it (although we were briefly in the ERM). Was that what you meant?

Oh, sorry I misread it.

I thought you (or someone) was saying what the politics would have looked like if we'd joined the euro in 2003-2004 under Blair with a euro referendum he'd won.

matt

Casino_Royale said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

We don't know, of course. But you can't game the fundamentals.

There'd likely have been higher immigration first, as the economy boomed up to 2007, and then the 2008-2009 Great Recession would have hit us far harder and, without a UK currency to take the blow, been followed by far higher unemployment post 2009 and a nasty house price crash.

If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have exited the Euro, and possibly the EU too, even earlier.

Have you confused the dates I was thinking about Ie the referendum? Do you mean had we replaced GBP with EUR?

Incidentally, I lived in FFM as the Euro was introduced, The queues at ATMs on 1201 1 January were remarkable,

matt

HYUFD said:

matt said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

UKIP would certainly have surged at the Tories expense

Certainly?

Of course, if Leave had narrowly lost UKIP would have seen an SNP style surge at the next general election unless Cameron and Osborne were replaced by a Leaver like Boris, so it may have resulted in the same outcome for the Tories anyway

“Of course”

Richard_Tyndall

tlg86 said:

matt said:

ydoethur said:

maaarsh said:

Yep it's in the bag, no one can catch Andy Burnham

I wonder, if he’d won, would Leigh still have gone blue?

Sliding doors. If the Euro referendum had gone the other way, would we now have PM Osborne. Would Johnson be a wealthy journalist. Would Labour be flailing around for a hero.

I think we'd be on the verge of PM Jeremy Corbyn had Remain won. We just wouldn't have known it until a few weeks before polling day.

Agree with most of this. I think it would have been clear quite early. Cameron would have had to hang on to the very last minute like Major in 1997 and would have been swept away by the backlash.

justin124

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

rural_voter

JohnO said:

The 2005 election took place on May 5th. But that of 1966 was held on March 31st. And that’s a VERY long time ago (though I can just remember it as a precocious 10 year old).

I remember 1966 - the last year that a left-wing manifesto won an election by a landslide. A good year for socialists and football fans. Sadly it's not coming back and I've supported PR for >30 years, a third of a loaf being better than none.

My introduction to politics was the Profumo scandal. Quite interesting for a precocious 10 yr old ...

matt

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

ydoethur said:

Foster returns as First Minister:

Stormont deal: Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill new top NI ministers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51077397

But these speeches are ominous. They all want different things and seem determined to all try to get them. This could go sour again very quickly.

They're no "Chuckle Brothers" (as McGuinness and Paisley were rather surprisingly dubbed by the end). In the absence of agreement on some big points, you need the personal chemistry and I'm afraid neither O'Neill nor Foster strike me as fun in any respect.

I was thinking about this today. There’s a school of thought that says more women at the top is a good thing. But, Northern Ireland.

FWIW, no woman is anywhere above 3rd tier positions in Ireland, it remains a remarkably sexist, retrograde society.

Alistair

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I've lost a bunch of money thinking I had call peak Starmer.

Three times now I have called peak Starmer and the bugger keeps peaking higher.

matt

viewcode said:

matt said:

...Although Parris in today’s Times is surprising...

Yes, I read that too. Parris thinks that Johnson is alcoholic-turned-barman: he's so familiar with the tricks of politics and journalism he can recognise them in others and deprecate them. Parris made a good argument with examples, and he might be right.

He might be. He might not be. What I read from it was that MP was convincing himself that the Conservatives are ok and his running away was a poor decision. Straw in the wind and all that,

matt

Alistair said:

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I've lost a bunch of money thinking I had call peak Starmer.

Three times now I have called peak Starmer and the bugger keeps peaking higher.

He’s got (and apologies for this) this big mo. It’s his to lose at this point. Of course, it’s quite possible he will, but will that be clear in the short term? No.

Casino_Royale

Alistair said:

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I've lost a bunch of money thinking I had call peak Starmer.

Three times now I have called peak Starmer and the bugger keeps peaking higher.

I think he's going to do it.

I'm looking for value in the other contenders as it's a long race but if anyone should be laid it should be RLB.

Casino_Royale

If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

matt

Casino_Royale said:

If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

Doesn’t this depend on how often you plan to move house? I am, I think, a touch older than you but equally don’t plan to move again, so can think long term. That may be heat pumps, solar or construction efficiencies. Although planning, listed buildings and the small minded behaviours of council staff. Which means that single panes, for example, cannot change,

From your perspective, will buyers attribute a real (or at least cost neutral) value.? Probably, no.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky reporting on RLB meeting supporters in Newcastle under Lyme today to find out why labour lost and she concluded that everyone agreed it was labour's brexit policy

Sky went into town and every voter they interviewed said it was Corbyn and they could never vote for him

Labour, or more specifically RLB, just do not get it

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

ClippP

Alistair said:

tlg86 said:

Is this peak Starmer? Should I lay him now or give it a few more days?

I've lost a bunch of money thinking I had call peak Starmer.
Three times now I have called peak Starmer and the bugger keeps peaking higher.

You just cannot rely on him at all.

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Casino_Royale

matt said:

Casino_Royale said:

If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

Doesn’t this depend on how often you plan to move house? I am, I think, a touch older than you but equally don’t plan to move again, so can think long term. That may be heat pumps, solar or construction efficiencies. Although planning, listed buildings and the small minded behaviours of council staff. Which means that single panes, for example, cannot change,

From your perspective, will buyers attribute a real (or at least cost neutral) value.? Probably, no.

I've got a one year old and have just sold my old house, so we're not moving for a long time.

It's the price that's the issue for me. If I'm honest there's a social factor too: not enough people I know have done it, and I don't know if it matches the billing.

With a young family I want and need guaranteed hot water and heating.

Gallowgate

Casino_Royale said:

If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

I worked in this area for nearly 2 years. Designing and overseeing the installation of ground source and air source heat pump systems.

I would never install a ground source. I would only ever consider an air source and even then I would only consider a high quality European model, not the cheap rubbish British companies try and peddle.

Ground source works best in district heating schemes where they are professionally maintained and you have economies of scale.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

TheGreenMachine

I'm just back, can someone Update me ?

Why is keir now 73% ??

Has he got more nomination's?

Gallowgate

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

EPG

Casino_Royale said:

If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

Bailout for boomers. Meanwhile, young people have to pay for this in their new build.

DecrepiterJohnL

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting on RLB meeting supporters in Newcastle under Lyme today to find out why labour lost and she concluded that everyone agreed it was labour's brexit policy

Sky went into town and every voter they interviewed said it was Corbyn and they could never vote for him

Labour, or more specifically RLB, just do not get it

If Corbyn was the reason the Tories won then Labour and RLB do not need to get it because Corbyn will no longer be leader next time so Corbyn-free Labour will sweep into Downing Street. If that is true. If.

brokenwheel

TheGreenMachine said:

I'm just back, can someone Update me ?

Why is keir now 73% ??

Has he got more nomination's?

Because he is the establishment favourite.

justin124

I expect to face some ridicule in respect of what I am about to say - but no matter!
Astrology is a subject about which I have come to have a very open mind - despite my reasoning telling me that it is a load of codswallop. I do not claim to be a firm believer and cannot offer an obvious. explanation for what I am about to relate. For three years I have been in contact with a guy who operates as an astrologer and psychic in India - though we have never met. In late April and early May 2017 I informed him of my very deeply held fears for the pending General Election. He sought to console me and asserted with great confidence that I would be far more satisfied with the election result than I expected. This was when the Tories were 20% plus ahead in the polls.We all know what happened in June 2017.
A year later I contacted him in respect of my anxiety for a brother about to receive a kidney transplant from his wife. He bluntly told me not to expect a successful outcome and- despite the surgery being successful - within three months it became clear that the transplant had failed forcing my brother to rely on dialysis.
Last summer I contacted him again regarding the political turmoil in the UK. He replied to the effect that Johnson had 'luck' very much with him , that an election would not be a repeat of 2017 - and that Corbyn would lose decisively. I did provide him with the Date of Birth of both leaders. Beyond that he does not have a good feeling re-Johnson , and is firm in his view that he will only have one term.
Make of that what you will - but it is 100% true.

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Foxy

TheGreenMachine said:

I'm just back, can someone Update me ?

Why is keir now 73% ??

Has he got more nomination's?

Remember, Corbyn did not win on nominations but did on CLPs.

The members poll is a pointer though. Presumably after the MPs choose the longlist, the shortlist is then done by the CLPs

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

I am not so sure.

It is not just Boris, but the whole government who is moving spending to the north from London and the south. It is long overdue and he has virtually 5 years to show real progress

Anyway, 2020 has started well with the WDA passed, the NI assembly up and running, and Patel seeking extradiction of the US diplomats wife involved in the crash with young Mr Dunn

Furthermore, Boris has played Iran well with refusing to back Trump on the nuclear deal and has laid ground work with others for more dialogue. The irony of this tragic shooting down of the Ukraine passenger jet by Iran has actually made peace talks more likely and even helped in the eventual aim of returning Nazazin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to the UK

matt

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

To be fair, he’s given an opinion. Backed by past performance. You’ve asked people to do your prep.

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

Sedgefield is now 61st on the Labour target list, Bolsover 67th, Rother Valley 76th, Penistone and Stockbridge 89th, Ashfield 90th, Scunthorpe 102nd, Bishop Auckland 105th, Great Grimsby 134th.

Kensington is now 2nd on the Labour target list, Chipping Barnet 10th, Chingford and Woodford Green 13th, Hastings and Rye 37th, Watford 41st, Reading West 46th, Southampton Itchen 50th, Milton Keynes North 56th.

Even if Labour win enough seats to become largest party next time (they need 82 gains for that) much of the 'Red Wall' will now stay Tory.

Gallowgate

I have said in the past that I’m willing to reserve judgement on the Government’s plan for towns like Blyth (where I used to work and nearly bought a house). But if they think that all it will take is “delivering Brexit” and an “Australian style points system” then they are seriously deluded.

The north needs billions of pounds of investment. One recession and all good will be gone. Just one is all it takes.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

Sedgefield is now 61st on the Labour target seat, Bolsover 67th, Rother Valley 76th, Penistone and Stockbridge 89th, Scunthorpe 102nd, Bishop Auckland 105th, Great Grimsby 134th.

Kensington is now 2nd on the Labour target list, Chipping Barnet 10th, Chingford and Woodford Green 13th, Hastings and Rye 37th, Watford 41st, Reading West 46th, Southampton Itchen 50th, Milton Keynes North 56th.

Even if Labour win enough seats to become largest party next time (they need 82 gains for that) much of the 'Red Wall' will now stay Tory.

You’re fetishizing the north just as much as Labour. The labour target list has no relevance.

TheGreenMachine

brokenwheel said:

TheGreenMachine said:

I'm just back, can someone Update me ?

Why is keir now 73% ??

Has he got more nomination's?

Because he is the establishment favourite.

Do you think he's 73% ?

Big_G_NorthWales

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting on RLB meeting supporters in Newcastle under Lyme today to find out why labour lost and she concluded that everyone agreed it was labour's brexit policy

Sky went into town and every voter they interviewed said it was Corbyn and they could never vote for him

Labour, or more specifically RLB, just do not get it

If Corbyn was the reason the Tories won then Labour and RLB do not need to get it because Corbyn will no longer be leader next time so Corbyn-free Labour will sweep into Downing Street. If that is true. If.

Corbyn free policies and baggage maybe

TheGreenMachine

Foxy said:

TheGreenMachine said:

I'm just back, can someone Update me ?

Why is keir now 73% ??

Has he got more nomination's?

Remember, Corbyn did not win on nominations but did on CLPs.

The members poll is a pointer though. Presumably after the MPs choose the longlist, the shortlist is then done by the CLPs

Sounds interesting.

Gallowgate

Big_G_NorthWales said:

It is not just Boris, but the whole government who is moving spending to the north from London and the south. It is long overdue and he has virtually 5 years to show real progress

Yeah we’ll see. What will actually happen is that it will all go to Birmingham and Manchester. The towns will be forgotten as always.

squareroot2

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

You are a one trick pony..

Gallowgate

squareroot2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

You are a one trick pony..

Thank you.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

I expect to face some ridicule in respect of what I am about to say - but no matter!
Astrology is a subject about which I have come to have a very open mind - despite my reasoning telling me that it is a load of codswallop. I do not claim to be a firm believer and cannot offer an obvious. explanation for what I am about to relate. For three years I have been in contact with a guy who operates as an astrologer and psychic in India - though we have never met. In late April and early May 2017 I informed him of my very deeply held fears for the pending General Election. He sought to console me and asserted with great confidence that I would be far more satisfied with the election result than I expected. This was when the Tories were 20% plus ahead in the polls.We all know what happened in June 2017.
A year later I contacted him in respect of my anxiety for a brother about to receive a kidney transplant from his wife. He bluntly told me not to expect a successful outcome and- despite the surgery being successful - within three months it became clear that the transplant had failed forcing my brother to rely on dialysis.
Last summer I contacted him again regarding the political turmoil in the UK. He replied to the effect that Johnson had 'luck' very much with him , that an election would not be a repeat of 2017 - and that Corbyn would lose decisively. I did provide him with the Date of Birth of both leaders. Beyond that he does not have a good feeling re-Johnson , and is firm in his view that he will only have one term.
Make of that what you will - but it is 100% true.

I am sure it is Justin but apart from your brothers health issues, many on here could have forecast the same without any need for astrology

Foxy

squareroot2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

You are a one trick pony..

A one trick unicorn, surely?

rural_voter

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

[text deleted]

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

Sedgefield is now 61st on the Labour target seat, Bolsover 67th, Rother Valley 76th, Penistone and Stockbridge 89th, Scunthorpe 102nd, Bishop Auckland 105th, Great Grimsby 134th.

Kensington is 2nd, Chipping Barnet 10th, Chingford and Woodford Green 13th, Hastings and Rye 37th, Watford 41st, Reading West 46th, Milton Keynes North 56th.

Even if Labour win enough seats to become largest party next time (they need 82 gains for that) much of the 'Red Wall' will now stay Tory.

I agree slightly with HYUFD. I've never done so before. Yes, seats in the S such as Milton Keynes look more hopeful than those in the N which were mining areas and are now just ... rural and remote.

Small N cities like Wakefield might well stay as marginals and be won back.

All I know about Blyth Valley is what UK Polling Report says about it. I defer to any local knowledge Gallowgate possesses. However, in private surely Starmer must know that the small towns aren't likely to be won back, even if Wakefield is.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

HYUFD and I have had our moments, and we are in the same party, but it is widely recognised on here that he made some excellent predictions when many called them out as heresy

He has earned respect, but of course counter arguments are the very essence of this forum

MaxPB

Gallowgate said:

I have said in the past that I’m willing to reserve judgement on the Government’s plan for towns like Blyth (where I used to work and nearly bought a house). But if they think that all it will take is “delivering Brexit” and an “Australian style points system” then they are seriously deluded.

The north needs billions of pounds of investment. One recession and all good will be gone. Just one is all it takes.

Well the treasury funding model is changing to prioritise areas of need rather than the areas with the highest multiplier.

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is .

I am not so sure.

It is not just Boris, but the whole government who is moving spending to the north from London and the south. It is long overdue and he has virtually 5 years to show real progress

Anyway, 2020 has started well with the WDA passed, the NI assembly up and running, and Patel seeking extradiction of the US diplomats wife involved in the crash with young Mr Dunn

Furthermore, Boris has played Iran well with refusing to back Trump on the nuclear deal and has laid ground work with others for more dialogue. The irony of this tragic shooting down of the Ukraine passenger jet by Iran has actually made peace talks more likely and even helped in the eventual aim of returning Nazazin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to the UK

The interesting rumour that I am hearing is that Soulamani was in Baghdad to meet with senior Iraqi government figures who were acting as go betweens trying to broker talks with the Saudis. Indeed that is how the Yanks knew he was flying in.

OldKingCole

justin124 said:

I expect to face some ridicule in respect of what I am about to say - but no matter!
Astrology is a subject about which I have come to have a very open mind - despite my reasoning telling me that it is a load of codswallop. I do not claim to be a firm believer and cannot offer an obvious. explanation for what I am about to relate. For three years I have been in contact with a guy who operates as an astrologer and psychic in India - though we have never met. In late April and early May 2017 I informed him of my very deeply held fears for the pending General Election. He sought to console me and asserted with great confidence that I would be far more satisfied with the election result than I expected. This was when the Tories were 20% plus ahead in the polls.We all know what happened in June 2017.
A year later I contacted him in respect of my anxiety for a brother about to receive a kidney transplant from his wife. He bluntly told me not to expect a successful outcome and- despite the surgery being successful - within three months it became clear that the transplant had failed forcing my brother to rely on dialysis.
Last summer I contacted him again regarding the political turmoil in the UK. He replied to the effect that Johnson had 'luck' very much with him , that an election would not be a repeat of 2017 - and that Corbyn would lose decisively. I did provide him with the Date of Birth of both leaders. Beyond that he does not have a good feeling re-Johnson , and is firm in his view that he will only have one term.
Make of that what you will - but it is 100% true.

Understand what you are posting, and understand, I think, your feelings. Sometimes things happen which cannot be, or are highly unlikely to be, coincidences. I’m an atheist, see absolutely no reason to believe in the power of the planets etc etc, but I’ve had some experiences which make me say ‘Yebbut’ to myself very firmly.
However, as far as Johnson is concerned, is his luck going to turn out, or his Party’s?

Gallowgate

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

matt

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is .

I am not so sure.

It is not just Boris, but the whole government who is moving spending to the north from London and the south. It is long overdue and he has virtually 5 years to show real progress

Anyway, 2020 has started well with the WDA passed, the NI assembly up and running, and Patel seeking extradiction of the US diplomats wife involved in the crash with young Mr Dunn

Furthermore, Boris has played Iran well with refusing to back Trump on the nuclear deal and has laid ground work with others for more dialogue. The irony of this tragic shooting down of the Ukraine passenger jet by Iran has actually made peace talks more likely and even helped in the eventual aim of returning Nazazin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to the UK

The interesting rumour that I am hearing is that Soulamani was in Baghdad to meet with senior Iraqi government figures who were acting as go betweens trying to broker talks with the Saudis. Indeed that is how the Yanks knew he was flying in.

Where does that rumour come from?

Gallowgate

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

HYUFD and I have had our moments, and we are in the same party, but it is widely recognised on here that he made some excellent predictions when many called them out as heresy

He has earned respect, but of course counter arguments are the very essence of this forum

This is nonsense. HYUFD makes predictions all the time and most of them end up being crap. He gets one thing right and suddenly he’s a genius. Begs belief.

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

OldKingCole

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is .

I am not so sure.

It is not just Boris, but the whole government who is moving spending to the north from London and the south. It is long overdue and he has virtually 5 years to show real progress

Anyway, 2020 has started well with the WDA passed, the NI assembly up and running, and Patel seeking extradiction of the US diplomats wife involved in the crash with young Mr Dunn

Furthermore, Boris has played Iran well with refusing to back Trump on the nuclear deal and has laid ground work with others for more dialogue. The irony of this tragic shooting down of the Ukraine passenger jet by Iran has actually made peace talks more likely and even helped in the eventual aim of returning Nazazin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to the UK

The interesting rumour that I am hearing is that Soulamani was in Baghdad to meet with senior Iraqi government figures who were acting as go betweens trying to broker talks with the Saudis. Indeed that is how the Yanks knew he was flying in.

I’ve seen that too. Almost as though the Yanks didn’t want peace.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

There is no immigration to Blyth so even if immigration was brought right down (fat chance) then voters in Blyth Valley will not notice any difference. What about this don’t you get?

MaxPB

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

HYUFD and I have had our moments, and we are in the same party, but it is widely recognised on here that he made some excellent predictions when many called them out as heresy

He has earned respect, but of course counter arguments are the very essence of this forum

Yeah got to hand it to him. He did say that Boris was the only Tory politician that could get a majority, that was well before May got booted too.

EPG

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

There is no immigration to Blyth so even if immigration was brought right down (fat chance) then voters in Blyth Valley will not notice any difference. What about this don’t you get?

Put bluntly, Brexit voters in towns want the non-British people in cities they visit to go away and not come back.

HYUFD

rural_voter said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

[text deleted]

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

Sedgefield is now 61st onseats to become largest party next time (they need 82 gains for that) much of the 'Red Wall' will now stay Tory.

I agree slightly with HYUFD. I've never done so before. Yes, seats in the S such as Milton Keynes look more hopeful than those in the N which were mining areas and are now just ... rural and remote.

Small N cities like Wakefield might well stay as marginals and be won back.

All I know about Blyth Valley is what UK Polling Report says about it. I defer to any local knowledge Gallowgate possesses. However, in private surely Starmer must know that the small towns aren't likely to be won back, even if Wakefield is.

Agreed, in the US in 1988 West Virginia even voted for Dukakis and it voted for Bill Clinton twice, since then it has voted GOP at every presidential election, even for McCain and Romney who both lost, it has similar demographics to small town, white working class, ex mining northern and midlands towns.

matt

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

There is no immigration to Blyth so even if immigration was brought right down (fat chance) then voters in Blyth Valley will not notice any difference. What about this don’t you get?

There’s no material immigration in (market town near me famous for pork pies). But such as there is appears to major on selling The Big Issue. There’s a reason why Euro immigrants are not seen as an unalloyed benefit.

OldKingCole

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

There is no immigration to Blyth so even if immigration was brought right down (fat chance) then voters in Blyth Valley will not notice any difference. What about this don’t you get?

It’s the story about immigration; there’s not that much, if any, in Clacton, yet they elected a Kipper.

Gallowgate

EPG said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

I’m not saying that Labour will win back Blyth Valley. I’m just saying that being friends and working with the very people @HYUFD claims to speak for, they will not be placated by simply getting “Brexit done” and an “Australian points style system”. As I previously demonstrated there is almost non-existent EU immigration to Blyth.

What will matter is what @Big_G_NorthWales says. True investment. Real change.

One recession is all it will take for the Boris sheen to wear off.

It was Brexit and controlling immigration and Boris they were voting for, if it was investment mainly they would have voted Tory in 2015 when Osborne was proposing his 'Northern powerhouse' or 2017 when May was promising more funds for the regions too

There is no immigration to Blyth so even if immigration was brought right down (fat chance) then voters in Blyth Valley will not notice any difference. What about this don’t you get?

Put bluntly, Brexit voters in towns want the non-British people in cities they visit to go away and not come back.

Which won’t change as most of the ‘non-British’ people they see are actually UK citizens. To put it bluntly there is nothing the Government can do. By indulging this fantasy they are only setting themselves up to fail.

TheGreenMachine

Are there any good films on tonight?

Which channel please?

Big_G_NorthWales

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With all due respect Blyth Valley voted Tory for the first time since its creation for a reason

Yeah, and?
Corbynistas are deluded into thinking they lost because of Brexit. You are deluded into thinking you won because of Brexit.

You cultists are all the same no matter what colour.

Over 70% of Leavers voted Tory, less than 50% of Remainers voted Labour and Corbyn was still Labour Leader in 2017 when it was a hung parliament, not a Tory majority,

Literally irrelevant as usual.

HYUFD and I have had our moments, and we are in the same party, but it is widely recognised on here that he made some excellent predictions when many called them out as heresy

He has earned respect, but of course counter arguments are the very essence of this forum

This is nonsense. HYUFD makes predictions all the time and most of them end up being crap. He gets one thing right and suddenly he’s a genius. Begs belief.

Now that is where you are wrong I am afraid

I do not know how long you have been posting but his knowledge is amazing and while he can be annoying, as we all can, he has made several and many predictions which have materalised and if those on here who bet had taken note of them they would have had quite some success

And remember, HYUFD and I have had some real disagreements, I just think you are being somewhat unfair to be honest

felix

ydoethur said:

Foster returns as First Minister:

Stormont deal: Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill new top NI ministers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51077397

But these speeches are ominous. They all want different things and seem determined to all try to get them. This could go sour again very quickly.

I'm glad Stormont is back but both of the main partners are potentially finished and the only reason they are there is to avoid an election. NI is ill-served by both of them.

kle4

Toms said:

We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

Curse my weak jaw and poor hairline, I'll never make it in politics!

squareroot2

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

You are a one trick pony..

Thank you.

Well its true. Isnt it... your almost sole purpose in life is to attack HYUFD.

Foxy

matt said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is .

I am not so sure.

UK

The interesting rumour that I am hearing is that Soulamani was in Baghdad to meet with senior Iraqi government figures who were acting as go betweens trying to broker talks with the Saudis. Indeed that is how the Yanks knew he was flying in.

Where does that rumour come from?

An Iraqi friend, who follows the events on Iraqi media. No friend of the Iranians either, she wants them out of her country.

TheGreenMachine

felix said:

ydoethur said:

Foster returns as First Minister:

Stormont deal: Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill new top NI ministers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51077397

But these speeches are ominous. They all want different things and seem determined to all try to get them. This could go sour again very quickly.

I'm glad Stormont is back but both of the main partners are potentially finished and the only reason they are there is to avoid an election. NI is ill-served by both of them.

I couldn't agree more, the Alliance Surge will continue.

Gallowgate

squareroot2 said:

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

FPT
Rural Voter said
'Rural seats like Sedgefield, Bolsover, Don Valley, Blyth Valley, NW Durham won't be returning to Labour. The mines are gone. '

But those seats were all very comfortably Labour in 2017. I doubt that many mines closed in the period between the 2017 and 2019 elections! If opinion can shift so dramatically in just two and a half years, why can it not swing back over a four to five year period?

Those mining areas and Northern and Midlands seats voted around 60/65%+ Leave, they are socially conservative and pro Brexit and cast a pro Boris, not just an anti Corbyn vote. They are the British equivalent of the likes of Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ie former Democratic states with lots of mining towns that went strongly Trump or Queensland in Australia which has has an economy built on mines and voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 but have now swung strongly to Morrison and the coalition, all equally socially conservative, suspicious of globalisation and largely white working class.

Labour has a better chance in areas like Watford, Reading, Chingford and Woodford Green, Southampton, Hastings etc which voted only narrowly Leave or Remain and stayed Tory largely on an anti Corbyn vote rather than a pro Boris or pro Brexit vote, especially under a leader like Starmer

With all due respect you know nothing about northern seats like Blyth Valley.

With respect it looks like labour do not know about northern seats either

@HYUFD is so arrogant he claims to speak for the former red wall but he doesn’t have a clue. This will also be Boris’s downfall. Thinks he’s outside the ‘Westminster’ bubble but in fact is fetishizing the north just as much as Labour are.

You are a one trick pony..

Thank you.

Well its true. Isnt it... your almost sole purpose in life is to attack HYUFD.

Not true. I could tell you about heat pumps and other forms of renewable heating.