The Tories could be in for a clusterfuck at the next GE but it won't be because of this DUP deal, which will be instantly forgotten by the great majority of the electorate who could not give one fcuk about the machinations in Parliament.
'Cuts', 'austerity', perceived government incompetence, May's diminished reputation and Corbyn's momentum (not with a capital 'M') are what would hurt the Tories, not some deal with 10 DUP MPs worth about 5 Ronaldos.
I don't think those links say what you think they say.
I think they do.
They don't. They only talk about no party winning a majority, not no party winning an election.
They do. The headlines address/ask what constitutes winning an GE, and the articles outline that as winning an overall majority. The second link states in response to 'what is a hung parliament' - ' what happens when no one party wins a general election.'
The Tories could be in for a clusterfuck at the next GE but it won't be because of this DUP deal, which will be instantly forgotten by the great majority of the electorate who could not give one fcuk about the machinations in Parliament.
'Cuts', 'austerity', perceived government incompetence, May's diminished reputation and Corbyn's momentum (not with a capital 'M') are what would hurt the Tories, not some deal with 10 DUP MPs worth about 5 Ronaldos.
I wish you would comment sometimes .It would be interesting to understand your thoughts on politics and betting .Rather than smiley figures trains and numbers.
As he holds a PhD there must be several years of wisdom and insight in there. He mustn't like PBers as he chooses not to share it with us!
I didn't see you at the PB meet at the Lord Raglan in The City last month!
First of all, I'd kindly ask PB Tories to not invent straw man arguments. I've never argued that Labour 'won' the GE, so I don't know why some of you are bringing that line up. Actually try and engage with what I've actually said as opposed to investing a straw man and then arguing with that. . Forming the government, however is not the same as winning the GE. In order to do that the Conservatives needed to wins majority - as did Labour. Neither did, and thus neither party won the GE.
LOL, you complain about straw man arguments five minutes after writing that "Many Tories on here have aired their display [?dismay] and upset at the result, but that doesn't mean that they've learned the lessons of the GE. Many are blaming voters, particularly younger voters for a start." Substantiate that, please, bearing in mind that noting an increased turnout among the young and blaming themselves/their party/TMay/that twat with the beard for not having anything to offer the young is not quite the same thing as "blaming voters, particularly younger voters".
One example. I'm not borthering to go through every thread over the last couple of weeks just for you. If your precious every time an observation about PB Tories is made that's your problem.
It is just that you never seem to win an argument in real time against a named PB tory, your victories are all against unspecified opponents who have all been saying something recently. I don't think it is precious of me to ask you to stop straw manning in a thread in which you have just accused unnamed "PB tories" (do you see a pattern emerging here?) of that very thing.
I cannot see what the thread you link to has to do with anything.
Victories? This is a discussion site. I'm simply exchanging views with others. I didn't know you were so interested in tracking my supposed victories against unnamed PB Tories though....
If I'm strawmanning, then nearly every centre left poster on this site has given that they have made comments and observations on the views of PB Tories without providing specific links. If you don't like that....that your issue.
Re that link: if you don't see what it has to do anything, you haven't read it. I'll supply the link as you requested: I won't do much more.
Well, the tenor of your strawmanning posts is generally "those innominate pb tories have been saying X, whereas in fact in my superior judgment Y", which I assumed you scored as a win for you.
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats from losing its majority even after having made this deal. In practice, if the Tories were to lose - say - 3 by elections and effectively see their majority cut to just 7 seats , would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up a political corpse?
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
But if the Opposition parties were getting big swings at by elections and the Tories were well adrift in the polls the DUP might contemplate the possibility of gaing some credit with the wider UK electorate for helping to put the minority Government out of its misery.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Tories could be in for a clusterfuck at the next GE but it won't be because of this DUP deal, which will be instantly forgotten by the great majority of the electorate who could not give one fcuk about the machinations in Parliament.
'Cuts', 'austerity', perceived government incompetence, May's diminished reputation and Corbyn's momentum (not with a capital 'M') are what would hurt the Tories, not some deal with 10 DUP MPs worth about 5 Ronaldos.
I am not sure that the Tory party have a lot to smile about today. This grubby deal will soon be seen through by the public, who, in my opinion will punish the Tories severely at the next election, whenever that might be and they may not sniff power again for a generation (or put it thus way till after I'm dead)
May I ask whether you were surprised that Crabb came so close to being defeated? I understand that Labour won the vote on the day and that the Tories survived due to the postal votes.
Campaigning the weekend before I could sense a real firming up of Labour votes, but equally the same was true of the Tories. He has certainly become an unpopular figure down here so I was.hoping we could get close bur never in my wildest dreams did I think we would reduce his majority by over 4000. When Crabb won in 2005 I said that he would be our MP until he drew his pension, unless he was caught with his pants down. Many a word spoken in jest.....m
Well, the tenor of your strawmanning posts is generally "those innominate pb tories have been saying X, whereas in fact in my superior judgment Y", which I assumed you scored as a win for you.
LOL, it's just an opinion. I don't see myself as having any kind of superior judgement, I got the GE result wrong like everyone else on this site.
On strawmanning - as I said before. If you define that as strawmanning, then you've got define the posts of many others on the centre-left on this site as such (and take issue with them as well). Many have made comments on what the other side thinks - just as those on the Right of PB have made comments on what the left on this site think. And that's fair.
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats from losing its majority even after having made this deal. In practice, if the Tories were to lose - say - 3 by elections and effectively see their majority cut to just 7 seats , would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up a political corpse?
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
But if the Opposition parties were getting big swings at by elections and the Tories were well adrift in the polls the DUP might contemplate the possibility of gaing some credit with the wider UK electorate for helping to put the minority Government out of its misery.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You sure?
DUP 10 seats 292,316 votes SF 7 seats 238,915 votes
I am not sure that the Tory party have a lot to smile about today. This grubby deal will soon be seen through by the public, who, in my opinion will punish the Tories severely at the next election, whenever that might be and they may not sniff power again for a generation (or put it thus way till after I'm dead)
May I ask whether you were surprised that Crabb came so close to being defeated? I understand that Labour won the vote on the day and that the Tories survived due to the postal votes.
Campaigning the weekend before I could sense a real firming up of Labour votes, but equally the same was true of the Tories. He has certainly become an unpopular figure down here so I was.hoping we could get close bur never in my wildest dreams did I think we would reduce his majority by over 4000. When Crabb won in 2005 I said that he would be our MP until he drew his pension, unless he was caught with his pants down. Many a word spoken in jest.....m
I grew up in Haverfordwest. Are you saying that his shenanigans re -sex texts have seriously undermined him - given that he had presented himself as a devout Christian? I suspect he owes his survival to the Withybush Hospital candidate who polled over 1200 votes.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding and 10 of NI's MPs have substantial power in London - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
I admit to being totally biased, but the Tories are starting to smell rotten. Things can only get better? No, things are going to get a lot worse for them.
Well, the tenor of your strawmanning posts is generally "those innominate pb tories have been saying X, whereas in fact in my superior judgment Y", which I assumed you scored as a win for you.
LOL, it's just an opinion. I don't see myself as having any kind of superior judgement, I got the GE result wrong like everyone else on this site.
On strawmanning - as I said before. If you define that as strawmanning, then you've got define the posts of many others on the centre-left on this site as such (and take issue with them as well). Many have made comments on what the other side thinks - just as those on the Right of PB have made comments on what the left on this site think. And that's fair.
Well, the tenor of your strawmanning posts is generally "those innominate pb tories have been saying X, whereas in fact in my superior judgment Y", which I assumed you scored as a win for you.
LOL, it's just an opinion. I don't see myself as having any kind of superior judgement, I got the GE result wrong like everyone else on this site.
On strawmanning - as I said before. If you define that as strawmanning, then you've got define the posts of many others on the centre-left on this site as such (and take issue with them as well). Many have made comments on what the other side thinks - just as those on the Right of PB have made comments on what the left on this site think. And that's fair.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
They will have lost huge amounts of support in England for being treated separately and as a special case. This is supposed to be a "united" kingdom. Some more preferable than others.
I admit to being totally biased, but the Tories are starting to smell rotten. Things can only get better? No, things are going to get a lot worse for them.
Yes, they are a zombie government still, and can only lurch on for a little longer.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
They will have lost huge amounts of support in England for being treated separately and as a special case. This is supposed to be a "united" kingdom. Some more preferable than others.
And which English Nationalist Party will benefit campaigning to seek English Independence?
Squeaky wheel gets the grease will be news to nobody.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
They will have lost huge amounts of support in England for being treated separately and as a special case. This is supposed to be a "united" kingdom. Some more preferable than others.
The DUP don't care what people elsewhere in the UK think of them and it is not for the British electorate to decide NI's future.
As for the 'special case' - speak to most English people and they already perceive Scotland, Wales etc as being treated as special cases, it makes no difference, it's already written into the narrative.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Lib Dems did demand their pound of flesh. They got not one but five cabinet seats. The DUP haven't got any.
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
They gave up £1 billion in tuition fees. And lost 49 seats as a result. Arlene showed them how to do deals. Basically, tightly squeeze the pair and don't let go until they cough up.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
They will have lost huge amounts of support in England for being treated separately and as a special case. This is supposed to be a "united" kingdom. Some more preferable than others.
And which English Nationalist Party will benefit campaigning to seek English Independence?
Squeaky wheel gets the grease will be news to nobody.
The English will be less against the inevitable Irish unity.
Indeed. Toxic Theresa trundles on. The woman who three away a majority and 23% poll leads.
I'm wondering whether they really ever had leads of that size. Perhaps the polls were wrong on that as well.
I think the lead at the start of the election was, in reality, closer to 10-15%.
A sensible campaign/manifesto could have seen them win by 5-10% in my opinion.
The Tories ought to be furious with the polls in that case since those huge numbers were mostly responsible for the complacency that embroiled their campaign.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Lib Dems did demand their pound of flesh. They got not one but five cabinet seats. The DUP haven't got any.
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
They gave up £1 billion in tuition fees. And lost 49 seats as a result. Arlene showed them how to do deals. Basically, tightly squeeze the pair and don't let go until they cough up.
Very true .Hard to understand why the Lib Dems did not insist on PR .The conservatives had been out of power for 13 years in ,2010 surely that was their real chance.Might never come again.
Indeed. Toxic Theresa trundles on. The woman who three away a majority and 23% poll leads.
I'm wondering whether they ever really had leads of that size. Perhaps the polls were wrong on that as well.
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
Indeed. Toxic Theresa trundles on. The woman who three away a majority and 23% poll leads.
I'm wondering whether they really ever had leads of that size. Perhaps the polls were wrong on that as well.
I think the lead at the start of the election was, in reality, closer to 10-15%.
A sensible campaign/manifesto could have seen them win by 5-10% in my opinion.
The Tories ought to be furious with the polls in that case since those huge numbers were mostly responsible for the complacency that embroiled their campaign.
Surely they did private polls ? Did they believe in "shy" Tories ? Or, Martin Boon was their advisor ?
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
However, she didn't just blow a nominal 20-point opinion poll lead, she also blew a respectable working majority (even more respectable than it appeared, when you consider that the DUP and Lady Sylvia are not entirely enamoured of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).
Indeed. Toxic Theresa trundles on. The woman who three away a majority and 23% poll leads.
I'm wondering whether they ever really had leads of that size. Perhaps the polls were wrong on that as well.
But YouGov, which was the second-best pollster at the end of the campaign (behind only Survation), also had monster Tory leads at one stage. In fact they had Labour as low as 23% right at the start of the campaign.
I think there was genuinely a huge shift to Labour over the course of the campaign.
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
However, she didn't just blow a nominal 20-point opinion poll lead, she also blew a respectable working majority (even more respectable than it appeared, when you consider that the DUP and Lady Sylvia are not entirely enamoured of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).
Richard why do you think Mrs T May changed her mind regarding a snap election.? Was the main factor the large opinion poll leads.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Lib Dems did demand their pound of flesh. They got not one but five cabinet seats. The DUP haven't got any.
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
They gave up £1 billion in tuition fees. And lost 49 seats as a result. Arlene showed them how to do deals. Basically, tightly squeeze the pair and don't let go until they cough up.
Very true .Hard to understand why the Lib Dems did not insist on PR .The conservatives had been out of power for 13 years in ,2010 surely that was their real chance.Might never come again.
At most they could have got a referendum on PR, which wouldn't have fared any better than the AV referendum.
Given all the major unresolved constitutional issues facing the UK, changing the voting system strikes me as nothing but displacement activity.
I am not sure that the Tory party have a lot to smile about today. This grubby deal will soon be seen through by the public, who, in my opinion will punish the Tories severely at the next election, whenever that might be and they may not sniff power again for a generation (or put it thus way till after I'm dead)
May I ask whether you were surprised that Crabb came so close to being defeated? I understand that Labour won the vote on the day and that the Tories survived due to the postal votes.
Campaigning the weekend before I could sense a real firming up of Labour votes, but equally the same was true of the Tories. He has certainly become an unpopular figure down here so I was.hoping we could get close bur never in my wildest dreams did I think we would reduce his majority by over 4000. When Crabb won in 2005 I said that he would be our MP until he drew his pension, unless he was caught with his pants down. Many a word spoken in jest.....m
I grew up in Haverfordwest. Are you saying that his shenanigans re -sex texts have seriously undermined him - given that he had presented himself as a devout Christian? I suspect he owes his survival to the Withybush Hospital candidate who polled over 1200 votes.
Crabb's vote held up, thanks to TM, but his indiscretion and unpopularity with regard to disability and welfare cuts galvanised the anti Crabb's. The Greens were very active. I don't think Overton's 1000 votes made the difference. These people are anti Labour. More pertinent was the Lib Dem vote going up by 500 or so, thanks to a well known local councillor standing for them. If he hadn't I think Philippa would have won. We now have well over 1000 members,and rising, up from 200 a few years ago. We need to keep these people on board and active at the next election and we can finally rid of a very poor MP. How on earth he ever fancied a crack at PM I will never know.
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
However, she didn't just blow a nominal 20-point opinion poll lead, she also blew a respectable working majority (even more respectable than it appeared, when you consider that the DUP and Lady Sylvia are not entirely enamoured of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).
Richard why do you think Mrs T May changed her mind regarding a snap election.? Was the main factor the large opinion poll leads.
I wonder if, bizarrely enough, the Budget fiasco convinced May and co that an early election would be a safe bet. Despite getting tons of flak for the Budget for days on end, the Tories weren't dented at all in the polls -- I wonder if they took from that that she really was Teflon Theresa, and that no matter how dicey things got during the election they would still be safely returned with a majority.
But, as Brown showed before her, once a political honeymoon ends, it ends BIG TIME.
There were only 4 Labour poll leads in the whole of the last Parliament.
There's already been 3 Labour poll leads in this Parliament.
There were about 4000 Labour poll leads in the last but one Parliament, and that led to a Tory majority. There were only 4 Labour leads last Parliament, and that led to a Tory fiasco. Conclusion: Labour leads are good for the Tories.
There were only 4 Labour poll leads in the whole of the last Parliament.
There's already been 3 Labour poll leads in this Parliament.
There were about 4000 Labour poll leads in the last but one Parliament, and that led to a Tory majority. There were only 4 Labour leads last Parliament, and that led to a Tory fiasco. Conclusion: Labour leads are good for the Tories.
On the other hand, the continuous Labour poll leads from early 1993 right through to 1997 (literally not one exception in that timeframe) didn't bode well for the '97 election
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
However, she didn't just blow a nominal 20-point opinion poll lead, she also blew a respectable working majority (even more respectable than it appeared, when you consider that the DUP and Lady Sylvia are not entirely enamoured of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).
Richard why do you think Mrs T May changed her mind regarding a snap election.? Was the main factor the large opinion poll leads.
Presumably, and I understand it was backed up by internal polling. Bear in mind also that Labour's internal polling showed the same picture, in fact BMG (Labour's pollster) were showing the biggest Tory leads of all in the final polls. I'm pretty sure from the mood music that the result was as big a shock for Labour as it was for everyone else.
This doesn't BTW mean that it was purely an opportunistic move by Theresa May - I think she genuinely thought that a decisive mandate would help her get a good deal in the Brexit negotiations, and I think she was right that it would have done. Unfortunately it didn't work out entirely according to plan...
Indeed. Toxic Theresa trundles on. The woman who three away a majority and 23% poll leads.
I'm wondering whether they really ever had leads of that size. Perhaps the polls were wrong on that as well.
I think the lead at the start of the election was, in reality, closer to 10-15%.
A sensible campaign/manifesto could have seen them win by 5-10% in my opinion.
The Tories ought to be furious with the polls in that case since those huge numbers were mostly responsible for the complacency that embroiled their campaign.
Surely they did private polls ? Did they believe in "shy" Tories ? Or, Martin Boon was their advisor ?
I think their private polls had them about 15% ahead at the start of the campaign and 10% ahead at the end of it.
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Lib Dems did demand their pound of flesh. They got not one but five cabinet seats. The DUP haven't got any.
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
They gave up £1 billion in tuition fees. And lost 49 seats as a result. Arlene showed them how to do deals. Basically, tightly squeeze the pair and don't let go until they cough up.
Very true .Hard to understand why the Lib Dems did not insist on PR .The conservatives had been out of power for 13 years in ,2010 surely that was their real chance.Might never come again.
At most they could have got a referendum on PR, which wouldn't have fared any better than the AV referendum.
Given all the major unresolved constitutional issues facing the UK, changing the voting system strikes me as nothing but displacement activity.
I think it would have done better than the AV referendum as easier to understand for many .However surely for Lib Dems it was their USP fair votes and every vote counting.
It's hard to believe that the opportunity to stage a World Cup in a desert in the summer in a country that doesn't give a damn about football was not won on merit. Unlike the Russian bid which was certainly all above board in that fine country not known for corruption or any sporting malfeasance.
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
By Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent and Nick Stylianou, Sky News Reporter
The Government was told last year by its own fire investigators that tower blocks were covered in flammable material - but were also told building regulations were "adequate".
The advice was given by the same fire risk experts who are currently testing the cladding on 600 tower blocks - and so far failing every one of them.
The reports were sent to the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) in April 2016 by BRE Global, formerly the Government's Building Research Establishment, which went on to reassure ministers that building controls, which BRE has influenced since 1948, were "adequate".
The documents seen by Sky News show that in last year's study of tower block fire safety it concluded: "With the exception of one or two unfortunate cases, there is currently no evidence from BRE Global's fire investigations for DCLG to suggest that current building regulation recommendations, to limit vertical fire spread up the exterior of high rise buildings, are failing in their purpose."
The documents go on to warn of "an increase in the volume of potential combustible materials being applied. A number of significant fires… have demonstrated the potential risks".
BRE is now being paid to test cladding being removed from high rise buildings across the country in response to the Grenfell Tower disaster, in which 79 people are thought to have died after fire spread rapidly up cladding containing combustible insulation and plastic panels.
Communities Secretary Sajid Javid confirmed cladding on 75 buildings have failed safety tests 75 buildings with cladding fail safety tests
BRE has been paid by DCLG since at least 2007 to "investigate issues that may have implications for building regulations".
How many people will be charged with manslaughter ?
The point is that one party in particular encourages a culture where any and all regulation is seen as 'unnecessary' red tape - to be slashed wherever possible, where health and safety is essentially seen as perjorative and to be mocked by their pet newspapers and what's more has starved the agencies that monitor compliance of resources in the name of austerity.
It just proves how much power the opinion polls have over public opnion. Everything is viewed through the prism that Smithson and TSE keep banging on about. 'May will go down in history as the PM who blew a 20 point lead, etc, etc, etc'.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
However, she didn't just blow a nominal 20-point opinion poll lead, she also blew a respectable working majority (even more respectable than it appeared, when you consider that the DUP and Lady Sylvia are not entirely enamoured of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).
Richard why do you think Mrs T May changed her mind regarding a snap election.? Was the main factor the large opinion poll leads.
I wonder if, bizarrely enough, the Budget fiasco convinced May and co that an early election would be a safe bet. Despite getting tons of flak for the Budget for days on end, the Tories weren't dented at all in the polls -- I wonder if they took from that that she really was Teflon Theresa, and that no matter how dicey things got during the election they would still be safely returned with a majority.
But, as Brown showed before her, once a political honeymoon ends, it ends BIG TIME.
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
Do you think there was any consideration that the London Mayor vote attacking Sadiq Khan also did not work as expected.?
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
Ha, i dont think he hates the UK, and neither do his voters
With a Tory-DUP majority of 12 [*], the stumbling block for the Tories unless by-elections hit them hard is the Irish border. Unfortunately for them, 26 EU countries don't give much of a toss about that frontier and they can therefore cause big problems about it in the negotiations. The government can't walk out and say to hell with it, you're demanding too big a price, so let's unite Ireland. Not only because of the DUP but because there would probably be a majority against reunification on at least one side of the border, even if both governments were in favour. In short, it can't sell Northern Ireland down the river even if there comes a time when it wants to. Welcome to the return of the Irish question.
(*) CON + DUP - (all other parties, not counting SF and Speaker) = 12
The biggest thing that will help Labour to a victory in the next GE is Corbyn's ability to lie and spin whilst coming across as genuine to many voters especially those he wants to appeal to. We saw this during the campaign he was asked about cremorating IRA soldiers he spun it to say it was part of the peace process. Then after the attacks he said "he supports whatever force necessary" in relation to shoot to kill, this was reported as him u-turining and supporting shoot to kill but he didn't actually say that! On trident it was leaked that they needed to deal with that issue by saying something similar.
He is absolutley determined to get his agenda through by hook or by crook and it is amazing how he is able to paint himself as completely different from other politicians when really he is just better at it then others!
Very Trumpian in a more kinder gentler British way.
The biggest thing that will help Labour to a victory in the next GE is Corbyn's ability to lie and spin whilst coming across as genuine to many voters especially those he wants to appeal to. We saw this during the campaign he was asked about cremorating IRA soldiers he spun it to say it was part of the peace process. Then after the attacks he said "he supports whatever force necessary" in relation to shoot to kill, this was reported as him u-turining and supporting shoot to kill but he didn't actually say that! On trident it was leaked that they needed to deal with that issue by saying something similar.
He is absolutley determined to get his agenda through by hook or by crook and it is amazing how he is able to paint himself as completely different from other politicians when really he is just better at it then others!
Very Trumpian in a more kinder gentler British way.
Jezza is too old and he's going to be even older at the next GE in 4 or so years time - he had his chance and it's gone. He'll be the new John Smith - the great lefty PM that cruelly never got the chance to bomb the economy.
By Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent and Nick Stylianou, Sky News Reporter
The Government was told last year by its own fire investigators that tower blocks were covered in flammable material - but were also told building regulations were "adequate".
The advice was given by the same fire risk experts who are currently testing the cladding on 600 tower blocks - and so far failing every one of them.
The reports were sent to the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) in April 2016 by BRE Global, formerly the Government's Building Research Establishment, which went on to reassure ministers that building controls, which BRE has influenced since 1948, were "adequate".
The documents seen by Sky News show that in last year's study of tower block fire safety it concluded: "With the exception of one or two unfortunate cases, there is currently no evidence from BRE Global's fire investigations for DCLG to suggest that current building regulation recommendations, to limit vertical fire spread up the exterior of high rise buildings, are failing in their purpose."
The documents go on to warn of "an increase in the volume of potential combustible materials being applied. A number of significant fires… have demonstrated the potential risks".
BRE is now being paid to test cladding being removed from high rise buildings across the country in response to the Grenfell Tower disaster, in which 79 people are thought to have died after fire spread rapidly up cladding containing combustible insulation and plastic panels.
Communities Secretary Sajid Javid confirmed cladding on 75 buildings have failed safety tests 75 buildings with cladding fail safety tests
BRE has been paid by DCLG since at least 2007 to "investigate issues that may have implications for building regulations".
How many people will be charged with manslaughter ?
The point is that one party in particular encourages a culture where any and all regulation is seen as 'unnecessary' red tape - to be slashed wherever possible, where health and safety is essentially seen as perjorative and to be mocked by their pet newspapers and what's more has starved the agencies that monitor compliance of resources in the name of austerity.
Hey ho...
Except no regulations have been cut in this area, unless I have missed something?
The biggest thing that will help Labour to a victory in the next GE is Corbyn's ability to lie and spin whilst coming across as genuine to many voters especially those he wants to appeal to. We saw this during the campaign he was asked about cremorating IRA soldiers he spun it to say it was part of the peace process. Then after the attacks he said "he supports whatever force necessary" in relation to shoot to kill, this was reported as him u-turining and supporting shoot to kill but he didn't actually say that! On trident it was leaked that they needed to deal with that issue by saying something similar.
He is absolutley determined to get his agenda through by hook or by crook and it is amazing how he is able to paint himself as completely different from other politicians when really he is just better at it then others!
Very Trumpian in a more kinder gentler British way.
Jezza is too old and he's going to be even older at the next GE in 4 or so years time - he had his chance and it's gone. He'll be the new John Smith - the great lefty PM that cruelly never got the chance to bomb the economy.
Even if he steps down before the next GE he will make sure he installs someone with just as looney policies his power in the labour party has never been stronger. He can smell that revioution is in the air. He believes he is about to over come all the odds to in effect seize power, he's not going to just walk away now and hand over to a moderate.
Labour believe he war right and they weren't left wing enough in 2015, which to be fair I can understand why they would think that.
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
Ha, i dont think he hates the UK, and neither do his voters
I admit to being totally biased, but the Tories are starting to smell rotten. Things can only get better? No, things are going to get a lot worse for them.
Yes, they are a zombie government still, and can only lurch on for a little longer.
Takes me back to the summer of 2010......October GE 'nailed on'.......
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats from losing its majority even after having made this deal. In practice, if the Tories were to lose - say - 3 by elections and effectively see their majority cut to just 7 seats , would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up a political corpse?
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
But if the Opposition parties were getting big swings at by elections and the Tories were well adrift in the polls the DUP might contemplate the possibility of gaing some credit with the wider UK electorate for helping to put the minority Government out of its misery.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You think Dublin will be as generous to Belfast as London?
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
But if the Opposition parties were getting big swings at by elections and the Tories were well adrift in the polls the DUP might contemplate the possibility of gaing some credit with the wider UK electorate for helping to put the minority Government out of its misery.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You think Dublin will be as generous to Belfast as London?
It's a view.....
The DUP are such good negotiators they'll have London subsidising them even after reunification.
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
The irony is that warnings about Miliband were genuinely OTT and ridiculous while Jezza really IS all the things the Tories said he is (IRA sympathizer, HAMAS supporters, hates the UK. etc.)
Ha, i dont think he hates the UK, and neither do his voters
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You think Dublin will be as generous to Belfast as London?
It's a view.....
The DUP are such good negotiators they'll have London subsidising them even after reunification.
At least May has got a multi-year deal - Brown settled with the DUP for just one vote
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
How so? Auntie Theresa and the Brits have just given the Northern Irish people an extra £1bn in infrastructure and public service funding - if ever there was a ringing endorsement of participating in the Westminster system, this was it.
They will have lost huge amounts of support in England for being treated separately and as a special case. This is supposed to be a "united" kingdom. Some more preferable than others.
And which English Nationalist Party will benefit campaigning to seek English Independence?
Squeaky wheel gets the grease will be news to nobody.
The English will be less against the inevitable Irish unity.
The English aren't against Irish unity if its what the Irish want. The issue for nationalists has never been convincing the English, its been convincing the unionists. The English are fully signed up to accepting self-determination for the not at all inevitable Irish unity.
Some people think this deal means the govt's now secure till 2022 - that's either naivety or wishful thinking. It gives the govt an effective majority of 13 but the question isn't whether there'll be govt defeats but how soon the first one will be. The govt is already unpopular and unless it can turn its fortunes round there'll be a populist tendency among some of its own MPs to rebel. The NI situation is a big matzo ball. There's Grenfell. Terrorism. Austerity. And the big one... Will this deal built in Belfast come a cropper on the iceberg of Brexit?
Defeats do not matter as the government would then have to lose a no confidence vote in which the DUP will support the government
It is just not going to happen - it is a signed memorandum of agreement for five years
The Government is only 7 by election defeats
Because the alternative would be propping up a rag tag band of losers, yes.
This makes no sense. Why would the DUP care about its standing with the wider UK electorate when it only stands in Ulster?
Yet more wishful thinking.
I am not predicting anything - but it is a possible scenario if the Tories appear to be heading for heavy defeat on a scale similar to what appeared likely under Major back in 1994/1995.
It would be interesting to see how public opinion in England perceived that kind of scenario. The question of whether Ireland should be reunified is much less divisive than the question of whether Scotland should be independent so the only remaining strong unionist party should be wary of alienating the mainland too much.
I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
You think Dublin will be as generous to Belfast as London?
It's a view.....
The DUP are such good negotiators they'll have London subsidising them even after reunification.
At least May has got a multi-year deal - Brown settled with the DUP for just one vote
Frankly, I don't blame the DUP. Unlike the Lib Dems, they demanded their pound of flesh and got it. And they will come back for more.
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
The Lib Dems did demand their pound of flesh. They got not one but five cabinet seats. The DUP haven't got any.
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
They gave up £1 billion in tuition fees. And lost 49 seats as a result. Arlene showed them how to do deals. Basically, tightly squeeze the pair and don't let go until they cough up.
They prioritised 5 cabinet seats over tuition fees. Arlene has got loose change down the back of the sofa in comparison.
Had Nick Clegg offered in 2010 a confidence and supply deal for a Tory minority government and all he wanted in exchange was a billion pounds for tuition fees then Cameron would have taken that. Instead Clegg wanted to be in power himself rather than getting a single pet project funded.
Comments
'Cuts', 'austerity', perceived government incompetence, May's diminished reputation and Corbyn's momentum (not with a capital 'M') are what would hurt the Tories, not some deal with 10 DUP MPs worth about 5 Ronaldos.
Anyway, regarding wisdom:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
The UUP have been crushed. The Tories humiliated. I also think Irish unity has come several years closer.
Let's put it this way: He's a nice chap, and no doubt he's good at his job - but don't bet on him as Next Tory Leader, or Ever Tory Leader.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/879450333612847105
On strawmanning - as I said before. If you define that as strawmanning, then you've got define the posts of many others on the centre-left on this site as such (and take issue with them as well). Many have made comments on what the other side thinks - just as those on the Right of PB have made comments on what the left on this site think. And that's fair.
DUP 10 seats 292,316 votes
SF 7 seats 238,915 votes
Grubby.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/879436339393032192
Marvellous!
I suspect he owes his survival to the Withybush Hospital candidate who polled over 1200 votes.
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/879293511098667008
If five cabinet seats is worth less than a billion pounds then that doesn't say much about the Lib Dems.
they have 328 seats for certain votes. Smart operator.
Squeaky wheel gets the grease will be news to nobody.
As for the 'special case' - speak to most English people and they already perceive Scotland, Wales etc as being treated as special cases, it makes no difference, it's already written into the narrative.
A sensible campaign/manifesto could have seen them win by 5-10% in my opinion.
Opinion polls have more power and influence now than ever before.
I think there was genuinely a huge shift to Labour over the course of the campaign.
There's already been 3 Labour poll leads in this Parliament.
Claims of alleged corruption in Qatar's successful 2022 World Cup bid have been published in the German media.
The Bild newspaper says it has obtained the suppressed 2014 report authored by former Fifa independent ethics investigator Michael Garcia.
Bild's report includes details of a $2m (£1.6m) sum allegedly paid to the 10-year-old daughter of a Fifa official.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40412928
Given all the major unresolved constitutional issues facing the UK, changing the voting system strikes me as nothing but displacement activity.
I don't think Overton's 1000 votes made the difference. These people are anti Labour. More pertinent was the Lib Dem vote going up by 500 or so, thanks to a well known local councillor standing for them. If he hadn't I think Philippa would have won.
We now have well over 1000 members,and rising, up from 200 a few years ago. We need to keep these people on board and active at the next election and we can finally rid of a very poor MP. How on earth he ever fancied a crack at PM I will never know.
But, as Brown showed before her, once a political honeymoon ends, it ends BIG TIME.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/30/can-we-end-this-snap-election-speculation-tmay-like-dave-before-simply-does-not-have-the-power-to-call-one/
This doesn't BTW mean that it was purely an opportunistic move by Theresa May - I think she genuinely thought that a decisive mandate would help her get a good deal in the Brexit negotiations, and I think she was right that it would have done. Unfortunately it didn't work out entirely according to plan...
While the anti-Miliband warnings worked well, those against Blair and Corbyn proved useless or even counterproductive. “I got embarrassed and fed up reading that Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser,” says the local Tory organiser. “Tory voters on the doorstep were beginning to feel he was being bullied, and feeling sorry for him.” Bell says: “The attacks made people feel as if they weren’t allowed to vote Labour. That’s an authoritarian position. And the attacks were so extreme, people said to themselves: ‘He can’t be that bad.’”
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/tory-election-machine-fell-apart-negative-tactics
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/879456915574714369
Hey ho...
(*) CON + DUP - (all other parties, not counting SF and Speaker) = 12
He is absolutley determined to get his agenda through by hook or by crook and it is amazing how he is able to paint himself as completely different from other politicians when really he is just better at it then others!
Very Trumpian in a more kinder gentler British way.
https://twitter.com/brexitcentral/status/879357840389009409
Labour believe he war right and they weren't left wing enough in 2015, which to be fair I can understand why they would think that.
It's a view.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/2112553/Gordon-Brown-wins-crucial-42-day-vote-thanks-to-Ulster-MPs.html
Had Nick Clegg offered in 2010 a confidence and supply deal for a Tory minority government and all he wanted in exchange was a billion pounds for tuition fees then Cameron would have taken that. Instead Clegg wanted to be in power himself rather than getting a single pet project funded.