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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

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  • KLOBUCHAR

    (Klingon for first)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,835

    KLOBUCHAR

    (Klingon for first)

    Excellent, or should I say majQa'!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,294
    wej
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,286


    The forces of enlightenment deal another blow to the flat earth faction.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    edited February 4
    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,072



    The forces of enlightenment deal another blow to the flat earth faction.

    Bloody hell. I'd stay well away from that one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    Another drawback of crypto currencies.... they’re encrypted:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/04/cryptocurrency-company-owes-customers-million-it-cant-repay-because-owner-died-with-only-password/
    Evidently, Cotten was the sole person responsible for transferring QuadrigaCX funds between the company’s “cold wallet” — secure, offline storage — and its “hot wallet” or online server, according to court documents. Very little cryptocurrency was stored in the hot wallet for security purposes. Cotten’s laptop was encrypted, and his widow, Jennifer Robertson, and the expert she hired have been unable to access any of its contents. The company had no corporate bank accounts and used third-party services to manage payments and withdrawals....
  • FPT
    Good luck with that, Chris. Even if the population felt that way, given it will soon lose what little electoral leverage it had over the EU, it’ll be interesting to see how it’s expressed. A referendum on declaring war? The Express actually suffering an embolism? Protests in Whitehall for us to tow the UK further into the Atlantic?

    More likely, the votes he’s expecting to be bestowed on Tories by those grateful his govt did what it was told will in fact be scattered to the four corners. I’m not seeing a Tory gain in Sunderland, for example.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,835
    Nigelb said:

    Another drawback of crypto currencies.... they’re encrypted:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/04/cryptocurrency-company-owes-customers-million-it-cant-repay-because-owner-died-with-only-password/
    Evidently, Cotten was the sole person responsible for transferring QuadrigaCX funds between the company’s “cold wallet” — secure, offline storage — and its “hot wallet” or online server, according to court documents. Very little cryptocurrency was stored in the hot wallet for security purposes. Cotten’s laptop was encrypted, and his widow, Jennifer Robertson, and the expert she hired have been unable to access any of its contents. The company had no corporate bank accounts and used third-party services to manage payments and withdrawals....

    Maybe banks aren't such a bad thing after all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019

    FPT

    Good luck with that, Chris. Even if the population felt that way, given it will soon lose what little electoral leverage it had over the EU, it’ll be interesting to see how it’s expressed. A referendum on declaring war? The Express actually suffering an embolism? Protests in Whitehall for us to tow the UK further into the Atlantic?

    More likely, the votes he’s expecting to be bestowed on Tories by those grateful his govt did what it was told will in fact be scattered to the four corners. I’m not seeing a Tory gain in Sunderland, for example.
    This has become the game plan of the Etonian charlatans and pied pipers who have taken us to this point.

    No toilet paper? Blame Brussels.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Kamala Harris now clearly fav for Dem nomination - 4.2. Biden 8.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,072
    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    That would be great.
    Still isn't a verb though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,715

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    That would be great.
    Still isn't a verb though.
    OK pedant, over 40% of Republicans want Trump primarifiniliniated
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,715
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    That would be great.
    Still isn't a verb though.
    You knew what he meant - it's a verb now! :smile:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    Nigelb said:

    Another drawback of crypto currencies.... they’re encrypted:

    [QuadrigaCX sfyl]

    All the less for the rest of us
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    I have a feeling about Romney.

    The 'FU' factor.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,072

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    Because...if he goes down to a historic defeat losing House and Senate too.
    Then the inquiries, indictments and recriminations start.
    A shedload of shady stuff comes out. Nixon plus plus plus.
    You are the only non-enabler standing amidst the smoking rubble of the GOP.
    With the bonus of a sliver of respect across the aisle.
    It's a gamble to be sure.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,644



    This has become the game plan of the Etonian charlatans and pied pipers who have taken us to this point.


    Possibly.

    Still, if Labour wants to avoid that, it could achieve it tomorrow. Vote for the deal or even abstain, we have an orderly transition out. Don't, and we have a crash exit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,608
    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    edited February 4
    Just laid Trump.




  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    That would be great.
    Still isn't a verb though.
    You’re really Ms Miriam Webster ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Kamala Harris now clearly fav for Dem nomination - 4.2. Biden 8.

    That might change if Biden decides to run.
    Harris is rightly favourite, but I can’t decide if the odds are a little too short at this point.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Just laid Trump.

    An admission that should be carefully defined.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Nigelb said:

    Just laid Trump.

    An admission that should be carefully defined.

    I need a lawyer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris now clearly fav for Dem nomination - 4.2. Biden 8.

    That might change if Biden decides to run.
    Harris is rightly favourite, but I can’t decide if the odds are a little too short at this point.

    Too short imho.

    A way, way to go yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Nigelb said:

    Just laid Trump.

    An admission that should be carefully defined.

    I need a lawyer.
    Or a therapist.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    Kos readers don't love Beto any more, he's dropped behind KLOBUCHAR
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/2/4/1832106/-Daily-Kos-Democratic-Straw-Poll-February-4
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    I have a feeling about Romney.

    The 'FU' factor.
    I’ve put a couple of quid on him. Long odds.
    I wonder about Lindsay Graham, too. Though he’s not on the Betfair list.
    Utterly unprincipled, but an opportunist and a survivor.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,294
    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Just laid Trump.

    It’s only fair to admit... me, too.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019

    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
    Nobody in Hartlepool eats grits. :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Nigelb said:

    Just laid Trump.

    It’s only fair to admit... me, too.

    Let's hope we aren't trying to contact the same therapist tonight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Nigelb said:

    Just laid Trump.

    It’s only fair to admit... me, too.

    Let's hope we aren't trying to contact the same therapist tonight.
    I’m holding out for Avenatti.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,835
    Nigelb said:

    Just laid Trump.

    It’s only fair to admit... me, too.

    Perhaps the pertinent question is who hasn't laid Trump?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019
    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,294

    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
    Nobody in Hartlepool eats grits. :lol:
    They can only afford a single piece of grit in Hartlepool....

    (Had an American boss once who claimed to love grits. Never having been out of the nice bits of California, he had derision heaped upon him.

    He also claimed to have been in the US Marines - but had never heard of Iwo Jima....)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 24,019

    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
    Nobody in Hartlepool eats grits. :lol:
    They can only afford a single piece of grit in Hartlepool....

    (Had an American boss once who claimed to love grits. Never having been out of the nice bits of California, he had derision heaped upon him.

    He also claimed to have been in the US Marines - but had never heard of Iwo Jima....)
    Iwo Jima?

    Isn't that the battle Mark Francois father fought in order to stop the Holy Roman Empire from taking over English Calais?

    Or something like that...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,608

    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
    I'd rather not....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,286

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,208
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    I have a feeling about Romney.

    The 'FU' factor.
    I’ve put a couple of quid on him. Long odds.
    I wonder about Lindsay Graham, too. Though he’s not on the Betfair list.
    Utterly unprincipled, but an opportunist and a survivor.


    I'm on Rubio for the nomination at 129/1. Still available at over 100. Republicans don't seem to mind choosing formerly failed nominees (Nixon, McCain, Romney, Dole etc...). Dyor.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,608

    Just laid Trump.




    Stormy Daniels. Welcome
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 926

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    A primary is not a general election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,715
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    Because...if he goes down to a historic defeat losing House and Senate too.
    Then the inquiries, indictments and recriminations start.
    A shedload of shady stuff comes out. Nixon plus plus plus.
    You are the only non-enabler standing amidst the smoking rubble of the GOP.
    With the bonus of a sliver of respect across the aisle.
    It's a gamble to be sure.
    Yes sorry, bit of a typo in my earlier post. I meant to say:

    If you were an ambitious Republican why wouldn't you have a go?

    I can see someone havng a go just for the reasons @dixiedean has outlined.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,610

    Roger said:

    I can't take these polls seriosly. When I see a single person approving of Trump I think they've got to be having a laugh

    For large chunks of the USA, think Hartlepool.....
    Nobody in Hartlepool eats grits. :lol:
    They can only afford a single piece of grit in Hartlepool....

    (Had an American boss once who claimed to love grits. Never having been out of the nice bits of California, he had derision heaped upon him.

    He also claimed to have been in the US Marines - but had never heard of Iwo Jima....)
    A 120 calorie portion of grits was part of the sensitively named "Fat Boy Program" that US Navy aviators can get put on if they are too chunky. The NACES seat in the F-14 was only certified for occupants up to 210lbs and we had a few who struggled to maintain it without regular grit consumption on the FBP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    edited February 5
    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,153

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    How did someone who joined Twitter as a teenybopper when it had 50 million members in 2010 get a 3 letter handle like AOC ?

    We should be told :-) .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,835
    MattW said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    How did someone who joined Twitter as a teenybopper when it had 50 million members in 2010 get a 3 letter handle like AOC ?

    We should be told :-) .
    famous people can ask to use names that are no longer active, I think. That, or she paid for it.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,286
    edited February 5
    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
    From Wiki.

    .................
    In the United States, other types can be differentiated:

    Closed primary. People may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day.
    ..................


    This is what he means by primary I assume. Voters would of course still be able to pick Chris Leslie (assuming he stands) even if Labour members decided they wanted a different candidate.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,039
    RobD said:

    KLOBUCHAR

    (Klingon for first)

    Excellent, or should I say majQa'!
    I remember when Q'onos was spelt Kronos. Bloody metric Klingons... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,039
    The Conservative Party used to be - or profess to be - the party of achievement. Now it's the party of "failing and blaming".


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,610

    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.

    CC fucking despises Jared as well as there is unresolved bad blood over CC locking JK's old man up when he was Attorney General of New Jersey. Never underestimate the motivating power of hatred.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
    From Wiki.

    .................
    In the United States, other types can be differentiated:

    Closed primary. People may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day.
    ..................


    This is what he means by primary I assume. Voters would of course still be able to pick Chris Leslie (assuming he stands) even if Labour members decided they wanted a different candidate.
    Now does party “membership” have much in common - 40% of all voters are registered as Democrats in the US.

    I was asking what he actually meant by ‘primary’, being genuinely interested in the answer, not for you to justify an apparently tendentious comparison.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    edited February 5
    Dura_Ace said:

    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.

    CC fucking despises Jared as well as there is unresolved bad blood over CC locking JK's old man up when he was Attorney General of New Jersey. Never underestimate the motivating power of hatred.
    Whoever runs against Trump - or instead of Trump - will need money and organisation, as it’s not something any of the major players have prepared for, so it would be a scramble.
    Romney has the advantage of his own mone, and has some it before a couple of times; Graham is de facto joint leader of the Senate (even if strictly nothing of the sort), and ubiquitous in the political media.

    Christie is not a major player any longer.

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 501

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    Nottingham East is a mixed seat, large numbers of Muslim voters, a lot of University staff (and some students) and public sector workers who rub alongside a working class base, so a primary would throw up a range of characters and I am not sure Momentum would carry as much weight as they shout...still it would be an interesting spectacle, though I reckon Leslie would be ok
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,806

    Nigelb said:

    If Chris Christie makes a competitive run against Trump that's good news for the left-wing candidates like Warren and less good for Dems with cross-over appeal like KLOBUCHAR, because anti-Trump voters in states with open primaries will be tempted to take part in the GOP one instead of the Dem one.

    Latest polling shows over 40% of Republicans want Trump primaried.

    Oh please, please, make this happen...
    If you were an ambitious Republican why would you have a go?

    Or maybe Romney might be tempted again?
    I think there is a nontrivial chance that the Romulan will set himself up as a stalking horse against Trumpton. He is as safe as houses as a Mormon Republican in Utah, and loathes Trumpton to his core.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,322
    edited February 5
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.

    CC fucking despises Jared as well as there is unresolved bad blood over CC locking JK's old man up when he was Attorney General of New Jersey. Never underestimate the motivating power of hatred.
    Whoever runs against Trump - or instead of Trump - will need money and organisation, as it’s not something any of the major players have prepared for, so it would be a scramble.
    Romney has the advantage of his own mone, and has some it before a couple of times; Graham is de facto joint leader of the Senate (even if strictly nothing of the sort), and ubiquitous in the political media.

    Christie is not a major player any longer.

    Someone running against Trump and also against more taxes on billionaires would have no problem raising money. As for organisation we're still a year out, Christie ran last time up to Super Tuesday so he already has infrastructure to reactivate, and since hardly any competent person will work for Trump there's going to be no shortage of talent.

    For Romney I think a previous presidential defeat would make it very hard to run against Trump. Why would you replace the guy who won with the guy who lost?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,315
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
    From Wiki.

    .................
    In the United States, other types can be differentiated:

    Closed primary. People may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day.
    ..................


    This is what he means by primary I assume. Voters would of course still be able to pick Chris Leslie (assuming he stands) even if Labour members decided they wanted a different candidate.
    Now does party “membership” have much in common - 40% of all voters are registered as Democrats in the US.

    I was asking what he actually meant by ‘primary’, being genuinely interested in the answer, not for you to justify an apparently tendentious comparison.

    The most high-profile case of a primary in the UK was for the Conservatives in Totnes in 2010. Any Conservative Member could stand and any registered voter in the constituency could vote. The result was one of the most independent-minded people in Parliament, Sarah Wollaston. One can argue whether that’s a good or a bad thing, especially when the Parliamentary arithmetic is so tight and such MPs can be difficult to whip.

    I doubt that’s what Aaron Bastani wants - he simply wants to see sitting Labour MPs replaced with Momemtum supporters via whatever means necessary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,315
    Today’s going to be an interesting day. I’m currently sitting in a large car park at 6:30am waiting to see the Pope. Not someone I thought would ever pay a visit to the sandpit!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
    From Wiki.

    .................
    In the United States, other types can be differentiated:

    Closed primary. People may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day.
    ..................


    This is what he means by primary I assume. Voters would of course still be able to pick Chris Leslie (assuming he stands) even if Labour members decided they wanted a different candidate.
    Now does party “membership” have much in common - 40% of all voters are registered as Democrats in the US.

    I was asking what he actually meant by ‘primary’, being genuinely interested in the answer, not for you to justify an apparently tendentious comparison.

    The most high-profile case of a primary in the UK was for the Conservatives in Totnes in 2010. Any Conservative Member could stand and any registered voter in the constituency could vote. The result was one of the most independent-minded people in Parliament, Sarah Wollaston. One can argue whether that’s a good or a bad thing, especially when the Parliamentary arithmetic is so tight and such MPs can be difficult to whip.

    I doubt that’s what Aaron Bastani wants - he simply wants to see sitting Labour MPs replaced with Momemtum supporters via whatever means necessary.
    You might be right, but my question was genuine, and I remain curious about the answer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,315

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.

    CC fucking despises Jared as well as there is unresolved bad blood over CC locking JK's old man up when he was Attorney General of New Jersey. Never underestimate the motivating power of hatred.
    Whoever runs against Trump - or instead of Trump - will need money and organisation, as it’s not something any of the major players have prepared for, so it would be a scramble.
    Romney has the advantage of his own mone, and has some it before a couple of times; Graham is de facto joint leader of the Senate (even if strictly nothing of the sort), and ubiquitous in the political media.

    Christie is not a major player any longer.

    Someone running against Trump and also against more taxes on billionaires would have no problem raising money. As for organisation we're still a year out, Christie ran last time up to Super Tuesday so he already has infrastructure to reactivate, and since hardly any competent person will work for Trump there's going to be no shortage of talent.

    For Romney I think a previous presidential defeat would make it very hard to run against Trump. Why would you replace the guy who won with the guy who lost?
    The thing we mostly forget is that we still have a year to run until the first primaries!

    At this time in the last electoral cycle, we were still more than five months away from Donald Trump even entering the race, it’s quite possible that the next president isn’t even on the Betfair market yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,036
    Nigelb said:
    What an astoundingly bizarre tale. Very long read, but just utterly crazy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think Chris Christie would be a very strong challenger to Trump - almost the only one I can imagine pulling it off. You don't want to try running against Trump from a different political position, because Trump advocating something puts the Dems against it, which makes the GOP base support it. You're much better running on *competence*. Trump said he'd build a wall, and of course you should build a wall, but he couldn't do it because he's shit at politics and he got his arse kicked by Nanci Pelosi.

    So you need a former governor with a record, but also enough presence and feistiness not to look cowed. Someone who can work across party lines and get things done... but ANGRILY.

    CC fucking despises Jared as well as there is unresolved bad blood over CC locking JK's old man up when he was Attorney General of New Jersey. Never underestimate the motivating power of hatred.
    Whoever runs against Trump - or instead of Trump - will need money and organisation, as it’s not something any of the major players have prepared for, so it would be a scramble.
    Romney has the advantage of his own mone, and has some it before a couple of times; Graham is de facto joint leader of the Senate (even if strictly nothing of the sort), and ubiquitous in the political media.

    Christie is not a major player any longer.

    Someone running against Trump and also against more taxes on billionaires would have no problem raising money. As for organisation we're still a year out, Christie ran last time up to Super Tuesday so he already has infrastructure to reactivate, and since hardly any competent person will work for Trump there's going to be no shortage of talent.

    For Romney I think a previous presidential defeat would make it very hard to run against Trump. Why would you replace the guy who won with the guy who lost?
    The thing we mostly forget is that we still have a year to run until the first primaries!

    At this time in the last electoral cycle, we were still more than five months away from Donald Trump even entering the race, it’s quite possible that the next president isn’t even on the Betfair market yet.
    That is absolutely right.
    But Trump is not going anywhere until he’s dragged out; the Republican party has already taken steps to prevent contested primaries in some of the states; some of the threatened stalkning horses (eg Flake) have already cried off; Mueller is going to take his time.

    By bet, FWIW, is that any Republican contest, if there is one, will get going very late.
    If there isn’t, and Trump goes later into next year, then the positions of Romney and Graham might be even stronger.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:
    What an astoundingly bizarre tale. Very long read, but just utterly crazy.
    I think there are shorter versions elsewhere, but it’s worth a read.
    I wasn’t certain while reading it that it wasn’t a perverse short story about a fictional central character (I’d not heard of the protagonist despite his being at the top of the US bestseller list).

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,872
    Grifters gotta grift.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,286
    edited February 5
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure that if he means a proper primary, as in open to non party members, as in ordinary folks, then Chris Leslie would not be being kicked out in Notts East because he's not a marxist who wants to nationalise the local greengrocer.

    As one example.
    I'm not as convinced that in an open to non party members election (a general election as their known) Chris Leslie would win his seat unless he retained the Labour label.
    Aside from that, what does he mean by ‘primary’ ?

    I’d be surprised if it has much in common with the AOC contest.
    From Wiki.

    .................
    In the United States, other types can be differentiated:

    Closed primary. People may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day.
    ..................


    This is what he means by primary I assume. Voters would of course still be able to pick Chris Leslie (assuming he stands) even if Labour members decided they wanted a different candidate.
    Now does party “membership” have much in common - 40% of all voters are registered as Democrats in the US.

    I was asking what he actually meant by ‘primary’, being genuinely interested in the answer, not for you to justify an apparently tendentious comparison.

    'This is what he means by primary I assume.'

    And I was answering what I thought he meant by primary.

This discussion has been closed.