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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave o

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could still be value in betting that the UK will leave on March 29th

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Comments

  • Revocation it is then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    I think I already backed leaving on time. Don't expect to collect, though.

    The first pre-qualifying ramble of 2019 is up: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2019.html
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,603
    I don't understand the header. If May gets her deal through there will be a technical extension and we won't leave on the 29th. If you bet on a 29th exit, you're betting on no deal.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Brom said:
    yeah, its not ... great ... is it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 36,625
    If, as reported, the EU offered extension is a long one "for time to have another referendum reflect" then that may focus some ERG minds (sic).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693
    edited March 15
    9/1 sounds about right, maybe a little long. There’s a fortnight of absolute chaos coming, and anything could yet still happen.
  • If, as reported, the EU offered extension is a long one "for time to have another referendum reflect" then that may focus some ERG minds (sic).

    Not whilst the likes of Christopher Chope exist.

    Where’s Thanos when you need him?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609
    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
  • Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693

    I think I already backed leaving on time. Don't expect to collect, though.

    The first pre-qualifying ramble of 2019 is up: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    From a quick skim through the practice sessions, it looks awfully like this season starts pretty much where last season finished.

    Last year in Melbourne, it looks really close between Mercedes and Ferrari, until in Q3 Hamilton banged one in more half a second faster than anyone else.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. Sandpit, Alfa Romeo may be quicker than I expected. Also intriguing to see if Renault can actually narrow the gap.

    On the top teams, I agree. Looks like the two-tier division continues.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 36,625

    If, as reported, the EU offered extension is a long one "for time to have another referendum reflect" then that may focus some ERG minds (sic).

    Not whilst the likes of Christopher Chope exist.

    Where’s Thanos when you need him?
    Or 3-line whip MVX and withdraw the whip from any rebels.

    Losing their seat in the likely GE (with no consolation peerage either) might concentrate a few minds....."You aren't getting Brexit because this ERGer voted against it as often as Jeremy Corbyn"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 17,297
    Sandpit said:

    I think I already backed leaving on time. Don't expect to collect, though.

    The first pre-qualifying ramble of 2019 is up: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    From a quick skim through the practice sessions, it looks awfully like this season starts pretty much where last season finished.

    Last year in Melbourne, it looks really close between Mercedes and Ferrari, until in Q3 Hamilton banged one in more half a second faster than anyone else.
    We won't know the order of the grid until Q3, so much sandbagging going on in practice. I think Ferrari are going to be super quick though, and Red Bull are going to struggle badly this season.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,104

    I don't understand the header. If May gets her deal through there will be a technical extension and we won't leave on the 29th. If you bet on a 29th exit, you're betting on no deal.

    I don't think that's 100%. Is she wins MV3 next week I think it's conceivable that she would try and stick to 29/3.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Ah yes, I remember that one. Also very good. 2 years on, I wonder how one could continue the metaphor?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 17,297
    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand the header. If May gets her deal through there will be a technical extension and we won't leave on the 29th. If you bet on a 29th exit, you're betting on no deal.

    I don't think that's 100%. Is she wins MV3 next week I think it's conceivable that she would try and stick to 29/3.
    No way, there isn't enough time to get all of the following legislation through and the chumps from the Lords giving it one last try to derail brexit if the deal gets through the Commons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,472
    The likeliest option is we will get an extension but only because the Commons votes for some form of Customs Union and Single Market BINO to ensure it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. Max, be slightly disappointing if Red Bull went relatively backwards, as aerodynamic changes should help them out (they're usually good in that area, and developing generally) and the engine change should narrow, though not close, the performance gap to Mercedes and Ferrari.

    Mr. Foremain, doesn't Japan have free trade with no free movement, no budget contributions and no supremacy of EU law?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,445

    If, as reported, the EU offered extension is a long one "for time to have another referendum reflect" then that may focus some ERG minds (sic).

    Not whilst the likes of Christopher Chope exist.

    Where’s Thanos when you need him?
    Chope doesn't' have a mind that can be changed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,260
    Sandpit said:

    I think I already backed leaving on time. Don't expect to collect, though.

    The first pre-qualifying ramble of 2019 is up: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    From a quick skim through the practice sessions, it looks awfully like this season starts pretty much where last season finished.

    Last year in Melbourne, it looks really close between Mercedes and Ferrari, until in Q3 Hamilton banged one in more half a second faster than anyone else.
    There are some suggestions that Ferrari might have Mercedes' problem of last season - the car is potentially faster, but is overheating the tyres.
    In any event, Mercedes have topped the times in the previous nine practice sessions in Oz, and their margin is significantly less this year.

    Qualifying will give a better idea of whether it's going to be another Merc year.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,445
    That's awful news from New Zealand. I had no idea they had a far right terrorist scene
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,264
    As I've said before on here many times the Leave campaign refused to give details before the referendum about what Brexit should mean. They entirely responsible therefore for the current situation. If it ends in Remain so be it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,404
    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    I think I already backed leaving on time. Don't expect to collect, though.

    The first pre-qualifying ramble of 2019 is up: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    From a quick skim through the practice sessions, it looks awfully like this season starts pretty much where last season finished.

    Last year in Melbourne, it looks really close between Mercedes and Ferrari, until in Q3 Hamilton banged one in more half a second faster than anyone else.
    We won't know the order of the grid until Q3, so much sandbagging going on in practice. I think Ferrari are going to be super quick though, and Red Bull are going to struggle badly this season.
    I think that might be right. Merc and Ferrari very close at the top, and RB clearly a step back at the top of the midfield. We’ll find out tomorrow morning, when all the sandbagging and engine saving stops and the competition starts properly.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609
    For those that still delude themselves that Russia is not attempting to subvert elections and referenda:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-trolls-are-winning-says-russian-troll-hunter/ar-BBUL7lb?ocid=spartanntp
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. F, might be just a lone lunatic, as per Breivik[sp]. Have to wait and see.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,357
    My favourite Lib Dem took to the web to castigate local mp for not putting Colchester first and not voting to extend.

    TBH - I think my respect for this guy has been clear on here - but on this he is utterly wrong and the majority of responses told him so.

    Some people even used that utterly discredited phrase "leave means leave"
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,236
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Norway, but yes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609

    Mr. Max, be slightly disappointing if Red Bull went relatively backwards, as aerodynamic changes should help them out (they're usually good in that area, and developing generally) and the engine change should narrow, though not close, the performance gap to Mercedes and Ferrari.

    Mr. Foremain, doesn't Japan have free trade with no free movement, no budget contributions and no supremacy of EU law?

    Not quite sure why you have asked me that question Mr. D. Japan's free trade with whom?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Sean_F said:

    That's awful news from New Zealand. I had no idea they had a far right terrorist scene

    The perpetrator is said to be an Australian citizen but of UK "stock" whatever that means.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,472
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Both have parties with what could be called Nationalist agendas with significant support ie the Swedish Democrats and New Zealand First.

    Glad May has rightly called it a terrorist attack this morning
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,558

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Doesn't May's Deal achieve all of that ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693

    For those that still delude themselves that Russia is not attempting to subvert elections and referenda:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-trolls-are-winning-says-russian-troll-hunter/ar-BBUL7lb?ocid=spartanntp

    It’s getting to be a massive problem, and unless the (mostly US-based) media companies can do something about it, they’re inviting regulation from a number of Western countries.

    That said, I do think the scale of the Russian propaganda operation is somewhat exaggerated, we’re talking about hundreds of people involved in it, rather than hundreds of thousands.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,301
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:

    That's awful news from New Zealand. I had no idea they had a far right terrorist scene

    The perpetrator is said to be an Australian citizen but of UK "stock" whatever that means.
    Insert obvious “convict” joke here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    A lone gunman with plenty of ammunition can do a lot of damage in a short amount of time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. Foremain, Japan recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU.

    As far as I'm aware, and I stand to be corrected, it doesn't include free movement, supremacy of EU law, or budget contributions, which is the position you were implying was impossible for the UK to reasonably desire or actually achieve.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 36,625
    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
  • Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Doesn't May's Deal achieve all of that ?
    No. It doesn’t cover services.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,264
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    I agree. I said at the time of the Brevik attacks that his reasoning was especially deluded given that Norway (not Sweden) was one of the most integrated countries in the world as a result of their settlement policies. I think that attack showed just how detached from reality these extremists are. I suspect this one will show the same.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693
    edited March 15
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:

    That's awful news from New Zealand. I had no idea they had a far right terrorist scene

    The perpetrator is said to be an Australian citizen but of UK "stock" whatever that means.
    Descendent of convicts?

    Edit: damn, @El_Capitano beat me to it!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,404
    matt said:

    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Norway, but yes.
    *cough* oh dear.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 27,123

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Doesn't May's Deal achieve all of that ?
    I thought it maintained supremacy of EU law which is what is being objected to?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,062

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    Where do they find 'em?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609
    Anorak said:
    It is where nationalism and prejudice leads. As you say, dark days indeed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,264
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Both have parties with what could be called Nationalist agendas with significant support ie the Swedish Democrats and New Zealand First.

    Glad May has rightly called it a terrorist attack this morning
    Meaningless to the extent that the Brevik attack was Norway not Sweden.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,190

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Except, it's trite

    We aren't still expecting blow jobs. The reason we are getting divorced is that the wife wouldn't GIVE us a blow job. She reserved them for the blonde Nordic types. Oh, and a little holiday fling with some swarthy Mediterranean guy. She expected us to be monogmous, but then shagged her way round Europe.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,167
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:

    That's awful news from New Zealand. I had no idea they had a far right terrorist scene

    The perpetrator is said to be an Australian citizen but of UK "stock" whatever that means.
    Presumably not Greek, Italian, etc.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,404

    Anorak said:
    It is where nationalism and prejudice leads. As you say, dark days indeed.
    I'm putting "I'd like to teach the world to sing" on a loop and switching off the computer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,190
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Norway, not Sweden.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,842
    On topic, I don't think Mike's right that the Withdrawal Act would require an amending Act to change the defined Brexit Date. There's an amending clause within it that enables the minister to change the date.

    Section 20(4):

    A Minister of the Crown may by regulations—
    (a)amend the definition of “exit day” in subsection (1) to ensure that the day and time specified in the definition are the day and time that the Treaties are to cease to apply to the United Kingdom, and
    (b)amend subsection (2) in consequence of any such amendment.


    Those more versed in parliamentary procedure can advise whether there'd have to be any votes to authorise such a regulation but it wouldn't need an emergency Act.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693
    Jonathan said:

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    Where do they find 'em?
    People with highly political opinions apply to be audience members on political TV show shocker!

    For the last few years I’ve assumed that everyone in the audience on QT was a party member or activist, more interested in a partisan soundbite than advancing the debate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,909

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    He must have been on the powder when he bought that sweater.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,558

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Doesn't May's Deal achieve all of that ?
    I thought it maintained supremacy of EU law which is what is being objected to?
    Possible alignment of some widget regulations - which is going to happen anyway.

    RCS will explain how widget regulations have various alignments globally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,375
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    Where do they find 'em?
    People with highly political opinions apply to be audience members on political TV show shocker!

    For the last few years I’ve assumed that everyone in the audience on QT was a party member or activist, more interested in a partisan soundbite than advancing the debate.
    The chap in front of him was a Labour party hack and just as bad on the other side of the argument.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,693

    On topic, I don't think Mike's right that the Withdrawal Act would require an amending Act to change the defined Brexit Date. There's an amending clause within it that enables the minister to change the date.

    Section 20(4):

    A Minister of the Crown may by regulations—
    (a)amend the definition of “exit day” in subsection (1) to ensure that the day and time specified in the definition are the day and time that the Treaties are to cease to apply to the United Kingdom, and
    (b)amend subsection (2) in consequence of any such amendment.


    Those more versed in parliamentary procedure can advise whether there'd have to be any votes to authorise such a regulation but it wouldn't need an emergency Act.

    A Statutory Instrument, with a simple yes/no vote in each House?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 29,274
    I posted this on the last thread and would like to thank my fellow PB contributors for their kind comments: -


    Our family has great affection for New Zealand and especially Christchurch where our eldest son emigrated to 15 years ago and we have visited several times. Though our eldest son now lives in Vancouver he retains ties with friends and ex work colleagues there.

    This attack is evil in it's purest form and we need as a Country, especially in light of Brexit, to make a concerted effort to bring all our communities together in total condemnation of all intolerance

    I posted this on my facebook page this morning and know PB forum will join in our condolences and sympathy to all Kiwis

    To all Kiwis

    We have woken up to the horrific attacks in Christchurch and just cannot believe it. Tears are shed for that beautiful City, it's people and the whole Country. Such hatred is beyond belief and we must alll stand against the bigotted and twisted minds of those who think like this. May the Good Lord comfort all those affected and our prayers are for all Kiwis everywhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 30,190
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    Where do they find 'em?
    People with highly political opinions apply to be audience members on political TV show shocker!

    For the last few years I’ve assumed that everyone in the audience on QT was a party member or activist, more interested in a partisan soundbite than advancing the debate.
    There was a great one last night. "I'm just some normal outraged bloke, as I said to Angela Eagles at the party conference....."
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,665
    Hmm, 11% still feels a little bit too high.

    1) TMay seems to have accepted an extension if her deal is passed to pass other legislation and tidy stuff up and it's almost impossible to imagine a short post-deal extension being vetoed, unless the timing makes it impossible, eg parliament passes the deal with 5 minutes to spare

    2) I don't think is right - can't it be extended by statutory instrument or something?

    3) is the issue - not so much Farage lobbying populists, which could probably be worked around with a fake revoke, but the UK just not having a plan beyond delay, and some governments being unwilling to delay without a plan. This is hard to call but I doubt it's more than a 5% chance.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,404

    Brom said:
    What, he has done something even better than that? Please can I see it?
    This is my best work.

    Except, it's trite

    We aren't still expecting blow jobs. The reason we are getting divorced is that the wife wouldn't GIVE us a blow job. She reserved them for the blonde Nordic types. Oh, and a little holiday fling with some swarthy Mediterranean guy. She expected us to be monogmous, but then shagged her way round Europe.
    Amazing you were able to post that embarrassing garbage after calling someone else "trite".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,481
    Anorak said:

    matt said:

    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    Norway, but yes.
    *cough* oh dear.
    The Norwegian justice minister’s partner was arrested this week over staging false flag incidents blamed on immigrants.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47575873
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,445
    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609

    Mr. Foremain, Japan recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU.

    As far as I'm aware, and I stand to be corrected, it doesn't include free movement, supremacy of EU law, or budget contributions, which is the position you were implying was impossible for the UK to reasonably desire or actually achieve.

    I am not sure I ever made such a claim, so you may be getting me confused with someone else. I have not read the detail of the agreement with Japan. What I do know is that we will not now be part of that particular opportunity thanks to our withdrawal for the largest trading bloc in the world.

    I think you will also find that EU law only has supremacy in certain delegated areas as part of international treaties, in the same way that we adhere to treaty laws in respect to our obligations to NATO. The Japanese will de facto have to agree to EU law in order to sell their goods here as they do already (CE mark etc.).

    Cutting ourselves off from a free trade deal with Japan is another example of the self-harm effect of Brexit. Still I am told that the disgraced former GP has got us a trade deal with Papua New Guinea. So as the lady who was most responsible for the single market would not have said "let's rejoice at that news FFS"
  • Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. Foremain, if so, then apologies for the mistaken identity. I thought it was you replying to a Leave position, implying it was ridiculous for the aforementioned items.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,104
    Pulpstar said:

    The chap in front of him was a Labour party hack and just as bad on the other side of the argument.

    QT audiences used to dress to the Left but I think the Beeb have made efforts to redress this and these days there is if anything a bias the other way. Or perhaps it is another Brexit effect, the split now being Leave / Remain rather than Left / Right.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,517
    I don't think this makes much sense. We are way past the window for an orderly withdrawal on March 29th. There's 400-odd votes in parliament (on a free vote, and I'd expect the Tories to whip in favour of the related legislation) for delay, and the Lords called for it ages ago.

    So the only way we leave on 29th March is a crash. So the EU turn down both the short and long term extension plans, and a last ditch vote to revoke A50 fails. Seems remote to me, if Spain say they want us to give them Gibraltar for an extension, looks to me like the other EU countries will talk them out of it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609

    Mr. Foremain, Japan recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU.

    As far as I'm aware, and I stand to be corrected, it doesn't include free movement, supremacy of EU law, or budget contributions, which is the position you were implying was impossible for the UK to reasonably desire or actually achieve.

    I am not sure I ever made such a claim, so you may be getting me confused with someone else. I have not read the detail of the agreement with Japan. What I do know is that we will not now be part of that particular opportunity thanks to our withdrawal for the largest trading bloc in the world.

    I think you will also find that EU law only has supremacy in certain delegated areas as part of international treaties, in the same way that we adhere to treaty laws in respect to our obligations to NATO. The Japanese will de facto have to agree to EU law in order to sell their goods here as they do already (CE mark etc.).

    Cutting ourselves off from a free trade deal with Japan is another example of the self-harm effect of Brexit. Still I am told that the disgraced former GP has got us a trade deal with Papua New Guinea. So as the lady who was most responsible for the single market would not have said "let's rejoice at that news FFS"
    Oh, and PS., as you may have guessed, I have absolutely no problem with free movement, I think it is one of the best elements of the EU. The fact that our government was too stupid or inept to restrict the 50% of immigration from outside the EU, and put in restrictions on access to health etc. is a further indictment of our crap un-democratic system that all rightwingers delude themselves is the best system in Europe, which clearly it is not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,631
    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    I think you mean Norway and New Zealand. There was also this 25 years back:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 6,104
    MaxPB said:

    No way, there isn't enough time to get all of the following legislation through and the chumps from the Lords giving it one last try to derail brexit if the deal gets through the Commons.

    Probably right. But it will be tempting to try and rush it through and hit the magic date.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,517
    FPT:

    I'm a swing eligible voter on the Lib Dem leadership. I never thought that Tim Farron should have stood down, whatever issues around his faith his campaigning skills were sorely needed and haven't come close to being matched under Cable. In a fair world where intellect, experience, judgement and wisdom were valued more highly, and shouting loudly valued lower, Vince should have ben a colossus. This world is anything but fair.

    I'm concerned over a couple of things Layla Moran has chosen to campaign on in the last few months; I've some judgement queries. On Jo Swinson I want to know that she's a wider vision than gender-neutral bathrooms uniforms and gender pay gaps. On Ed Davey I've concerns how he'll get noticed and how nimble he can be in praising / criticising the coalition where needed. And I would never vote for a non-MP to be leader, whatever the outcome of the proposed changes coming to Spring Conference. My vote is up for grabs.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. tpfkar, how long do you have to make up your mind?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,074
    edited March 15

    For those that still delude themselves that Russia is not attempting to subvert elections and referenda:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-trolls-are-winning-says-russian-troll-hunter/ar-BBUL7lb?ocid=spartanntp

    I had lunch with my closest Russian friend last week and this was his gossip from Moscow:

    Putin's top priority is now encouraging immigration from other Russophone countries as the depopulation crisis is only getting worse. Immigration control, or rather the rapid relaxing thereof, has now been brought under the direct control of the President's office.

    Navalny may be brought in from the cold and groomed as a Putin successor. This would be staggering if true but nothing would surprise me about Russia. Despite their differences, to put it mildly, he is the sort of strident nationalist of which Putin approves.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,517

    Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
    She needs Bone, Hollobone, Francois, Bridgen, Kawczynski, Cash and Chope.

    Basically all of them. How the heck do you get people like that onside?

    That's why I'm relaxed about as many meaningful votes as she likes.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    That QT audience member having a go at politicians over failure to deliver Brexit has a colourful past.....



    (Doesn't diminish the audience reaction...)
    Where do they find 'em?
    People with highly political opinions apply to be audience members on political TV show shocker!

    For the last few years I’ve assumed that everyone in the audience on QT was a party member or activist, more interested in a partisan soundbite than advancing the debate.
    The chap in front of him was a Labour party hack and just as bad on the other side of the argument.
    I think the problem is packing the audience with partisans, not especially what it is they are partisan about.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    F1: small aside, but interesting Hulkenberg was a tiny bit faster than Ricciardo in second practice. Could be a tasty fight between those two. Big opportunity for Hulkenberg to perform well against a great driver.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,609
    Dura_Ace said:

    For those that still delude themselves that Russia is not attempting to subvert elections and referenda:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-trolls-are-winning-says-russian-troll-hunter/ar-BBUL7lb?ocid=spartanntp

    I had lunch with my closest Russian friend last week and this was his gossip from Moscow:

    Putin's top priority is now encouraging immigration from other Russophone countries as the depopulation crisis is only getting worse. Immigration control, or rather the rapid relaxing thereof, has now been brought under the direct control of the President's office.

    Navalny may be brought in from the cold and groomed as a Putin successor. This would be staggering if true but nothing would surprise me about Russia. Despite their differences, to put it mildly, he is the sort of strident nationalist of which Putin approves.
    Maybe troll factories are not as deliberately subversive as we thought. Perhaps they are employment opportunities for Anglophones. Putin's equivalent to India's English speaking call centres
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,909

    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    I think you mean Norway and New Zealand. There was also this 25 years back:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre
    The Oklahoma City bombing was the real big one.
    It seems to get forgotten nowadays, for whatever reason.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,517

    Mr. tpfkar, how long do you have to make up your mind?

    Few months I think. Vince has said he's standing down after the local elections in May, but that may need to include the Euro elections in late May. So let's say nominations in June, ballots and hustings July/August for a big unveiling around party conference season?

    So probably most of the summer if it works out like that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,945
    Mr. tpfkar, cheers.

    I hope Lamb's health is on the mend.
  • Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
    If the DUP cave in, then I can see maybe 50 of Moggsy lot falling in (including Moggsy). Wouldn't need that many from Labour to come over out of the 30 or so that are seriously considering it.

    29th March would still be long odds against as impossible to do the paperwork on time
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,264

    Mr. Foremain, Japan recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU.

    As far as I'm aware, and I stand to be corrected, it doesn't include free movement, supremacy of EU law, or budget contributions, which is the position you were implying was impossible for the UK to reasonably desire or actually achieve.

    I am not sure I ever made such a claim, so you may be getting me confused with someone else. I have not read the detail of the agreement with Japan. What I do know is that we will not now be part of that particular opportunity thanks to our withdrawal for the largest trading bloc in the world.

    I think you will also find that EU law only has supremacy in certain delegated areas as part of international treaties, in the same way that we adhere to treaty laws in respect to our obligations to NATO. The Japanese will de facto have to agree to EU law in order to sell their goods here as they do already (CE mark etc.).

    Cutting ourselves off from a free trade deal with Japan is another example of the self-harm effect of Brexit. Still I am told that the disgraced former GP has got us a trade deal with Papua New Guinea. So as the lady who was most responsible for the single market would not have said "let's rejoice at that news FFS"
    Sorry Nigel but this is simply wrong (or parts of it anyway). There is no comparison between the way in which the EU can impose laws on a member state against their wishes (due to QMV) and an organisation like NATO where every country has a veto and no new laws or rules can be imposed without the agreement of every member.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,805

    Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
    If the DUP cave in, then I can see maybe 50 of Moggsy lot falling in (including Moggsy). Wouldn't need that many from Labour to come over out of the 30 or so that are seriously considering it.

    29th March would still be long odds against as impossible to do the paperwork on time
    We have no proof 30 or so are considering it . It seems to be based on hope and rumours.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,631

    Anorak said:

    Two worst far right atrocities in the last 20 years: Sweden and New Zealand. That's either really weird, or the general perception of those countries is waaay off base.

    I think you mean Norway and New Zealand. There was also this 25 years back:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre
    The Oklahoma City bombing was the real big one.
    It seems to get forgotten nowadays, for whatever reason.
    Of course, but Cave of Patriarchs was eerily similar to NZ - loony dude shooting up Muslims at prayer.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,157
    edited March 15
    LOL, utter made up bollox, unionists and their poodles are getting desperate. Who would waste time on these pipsqueak nobodies. Given they do F all who would ever know they had been an MP.
    PS I note you did not include the "ALLEGED" to cover the fact that it is all a fantasy of the cretins imagination , actually believing anybody would know him or give a toss. They should stick to their usual shenanigans in the strangers bar after liberal use of public money.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,616
    From Guardian blog:

    Labour took a city council seat from an independent in the latest local by-elections.

    The party’s gain came in a contest in the Coxford ward of Southampton City Council caused by the resignation of an independent councillor.

    Voting was: Lab 668, C 529, Lib Dem 450, Socialist Alternative 368, Integrity Southampton 178, Ind 174, Ukip 123, Green 53. The turnout was 25%.

    Elsewhere, Labour comfortably held two seats: one at Croydon (Norbury & Pollards Hill ward) and one at Durham (Wingate division).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,074

    Dura_Ace said:

    For those that still delude themselves that Russia is not attempting to subvert elections and referenda:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-trolls-are-winning-says-russian-troll-hunter/ar-BBUL7lb?ocid=spartanntp

    I had lunch with my closest Russian friend last week and this was his gossip from Moscow:

    Putin's top priority is now encouraging immigration from other Russophone countries as the depopulation crisis is only getting worse. Immigration control, or rather the rapid relaxing thereof, has now been brought under the direct control of the President's office.

    Navalny may be brought in from the cold and groomed as a Putin successor. This would be staggering if true but nothing would surprise me about Russia. Despite their differences, to put it mildly, he is the sort of strident nationalist of which Putin approves.
    Maybe troll factories are not as deliberately subversive as we thought. Perhaps they are employment opportunities for Anglophones. Putin's equivalent to India's English speaking call centres
    This is 100% happening now. The troll factory model of the building on Ylitsa Savushkina has been superseded by network of foreign "consultants". Especially since the CIA/MI6/DGSE burned down the original troll factory last year.
  • kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
    If the DUP cave in, then I can see maybe 50 of Moggsy lot falling in (including Moggsy). Wouldn't need that many from Labour to come over out of the 30 or so that are seriously considering it.

    29th March would still be long odds against as impossible to do the paperwork on time
    We have no proof 30 or so are considering it . It seems to be based on hope and rumours.
    Caroline Flint was pretty specific on that sort of number. I would have thought she would be 'in the know' as much as anyone.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 36,625
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, utter made up bollox, unionists and their poodles are getting desperate. Who would waste time on these pipsqueak nobodies. Given they do F all who would ever know they had been an MP.
    PS I note you did not include the "ALLEGED" to cover the fact that it is all a fantasy of the cretins imagination , actually believing anybody would know him or give a toss. They should stick to their usual shenanigans in the strangers bar after liberal use of public money.
    After Mr Graham’s statement in the Commons, Stewart McDonald, the SNP MP for Glasgow South, who was recently targeted by right-wing blogger Tommy Robinson, tweeted: “I’m truly sorry to hear this @LukeGrahamMP.

    “My staff and I know what it’s like to be intimidated by those who don’t like your politics and this sort of stuff is never ever acceptable.

    “Please pass on our best wishes to your office team.”


    Compare & contrast.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 56,375
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't know how many ERG members will oppose Brexit to the bitter end. 30 seems a reasonable estimate, but it's easy to hold out when peers and supporters are egging you on. Less so, when they're telling you that you're being a cock. It does seem growing numbers of Leavers realise the WA
    is as good as it gets.

    Far too little, far too late.
    If the DUP cave in, then I can see maybe 50 of Moggsy lot falling in (including Moggsy). Wouldn't need that many from Labour to come over out of the 30 or so that are seriously considering it.

    29th March would still be long odds against as impossible to do the paperwork on time
    We have no proof 30 or so are considering it . It seems to be based on hope and rumours.
    THey managed to get Philip Davies and Scott Mann to switch, two hard brexiters. If they can get the DUP to switch then more will follow - but the DUP is key.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,157
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,752
    This is a good post. At 11% it's clearly value.

    However, I cannot see the House of Commons permitting this. They have two main mechanisms for halting exit on 29th March. The first is revoking Article 50. Whilst unlikely, if push comes to shove I'm certain they would do this rather than crash out with No Deal. The other is to table the appropriate legislation. This is feasible even at the last minute and, again, I'm certain they will do it if necessary.

    Which, if correct, means there's only one reason why we might leave on March 29th: that's if Theresa May's deal goes through.

    Now having said all of that we have a BIG problem in the betting market around the interpretation of 'leave.' It has been mooted that the UK might 'politically' leave on 29th March whilst technically and legally it takes longer. That's going to cause a real rumpus for punters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,157

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, utter made up bollox, unionists and their poodles are getting desperate. Who would waste time on these pipsqueak nobodies. Given they do F all who would ever know they had been an MP.
    PS I note you did not include the "ALLEGED" to cover the fact that it is all a fantasy of the cretins imagination , actually believing anybody would know him or give a toss. They should stick to their usual shenanigans in the strangers bar after liberal use of public money.
    After Mr Graham’s statement in the Commons, Stewart McDonald, the SNP MP for Glasgow South, who was recently targeted by right-wing blogger Tommy Robinson, tweeted: “I’m truly sorry to hear this @LukeGrahamMP.

    “My staff and I know what it’s like to be intimidated by those who don’t like your politics and this sort of stuff is never ever acceptable.

    “Please pass on our best wishes to your office team.”


    Compare & contrast.....
    Yes the Tories go on about traitors and abuse all the time, they decry the SNP constantly and never ever ever show any sympathy when they are being attacked. It is utter bollox from a typical right wing nobody trying to be important. Bet you could not find a handful of people who knew he was an MP. Tories cannot decry anyone , they are a nasty bunch and rotten to the core. We will see if there is ever any evidence that the fantasy ever happened. As I said desperate unionists say SNP BAD, how novel.
This discussion has been closed.