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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited April 8 in General
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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,006
    First - Unlike Matt Hancocks app! :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,006
    Enjoy Lord Hayward's presentation Mike. :)

    I think Con will get a pasting in the locals and Con and Lab will face meltdown in the EU elections...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    Repost from previous for relevance

    Local election tip. Norwich - no blues as ever, the greens have been going backwards since having a large double figures presence on the council, and there is no reason to suspect long term that trend will end. However given the decline of the big two nationally, Norwich being a remain area (and jezza vacillating on this) and some negative press around Clive Lewis lately, the city wards, especially near the university are ones to watch for Green activity and possible gains

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    How many candidates are the Kippers standing ?

    Can the spoiled ballot party dent the stay at home party's vote share ?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,713
    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,028
    Looks like the Tories are about to be hoist by their 'older voters vote and vote Conservative' petard.
    Not when they're given a reason not to.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744

    Looks like the Tories are about to be hoist by their 'older voters vote and vote Conservative' petard.
    Not when they're given a reason not to.

    The Conservative party is a broad church. In one camp there is their voters, on the other is the cabinet and half their MPs....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,352
    Morning all :)

    With something like 8,500 seats in play there's going to be plenty going on and we may see some even more exaggerated "local" outcomes. It would have been good for the LDs to have been able to contest more seats but obviously reversing as many of the 2015 losses as possible has to be the number one priority.

    Regaining seats and gaining (or regaining) members is all part of the long slow fightback.

    I think the Greens may do very well in some areas but I'd be looking at some of the well-organised and well-funded Independent groups out there who I think could have an excellent evening especially but not exclusively in some of the Conservative heartlands.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,028
    Tess of a Thousand Days.



    Summon the headsman.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,377
    edited April 8

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    Interesting. Perhaps Rees-Mogg is shrewder than I thought and his meeting with Steve Bannon was a long-term masterstroke. He knows the Tories have to 'do a Trump' and court the rust-belt vote of the disillusioned and the angry merely to survive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,303

    Tess of a Thousand Days.



    Summon the headsman.

    She's closing in on the Duke of Wellington.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,707

    Tess of a Thousand Days.



    Summon the headsman.

    She's closing in on the Duke of Wellington.
    And Gordon Brown
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,575

    Tess of a Thousand Days.



    Summon the headsman.

    Theresa May as Scheherzerade? She certainly seems to have been continually spinning fables to survive another 24 hours.
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited April 8
    FPT

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,307
    Going to be an electoral tsunami for the Can't Be Arsed Party.....
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 941

    Going to be an electoral tsunami for the Can't Be Arsed Party.....

    Yes, a vote strike is more likely. Theres general anger across supporters for both the big parties. The move between them is going to be small.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,303
    FPT
    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,713
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    With something like 8,500 seats in play there's going to be plenty going on and we may see some even more exaggerated "local" outcomes. It would have been good for the LDs to have been able to contest more seats but obviously reversing as many of the 2015 losses as possible has to be the number one priority.

    Regaining seats and gaining (or regaining) members is all part of the long slow fightback.

    I think the Greens may do very well in some areas but I'd be looking at some of the well-organised and well-funded Independent groups out there who I think could have an excellent evening especially but not exclusively in some of the Conservative heartlands.

    For many years, independent candidates had been losing share in local elections. I would expect these elections to reverse that trend, as party identification becomes something that repels rather than attracts votes. Con and Lab have obvious problems, but the LDs do too.

    The main problem for the LDs (putting aside their invisible non-leader) is that they have now defined themselves into an exclusive Remainer niche. Gone is the party that could appeal to a very wide base simply because they stood for nothing in particular but were apparently in contention because they had been stuffing loads of misleading leaflets through your door for ages through the election and were surely worth a punt compared to those numpties that had been running the government or local council for years. They used to repel very few people but now they are guaranteed to repel 50%.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    Will we see MPs vote to revoke A50 pass this week - Thursday or Friday after the EU turns down an extension?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,336
    edited April 8
    isam said:

    FPT

    [posts screenshot]

    Maybe better to use the normal quoting if possible, it's better for people who are blind or have bad vision, they can use screen readers, different fonts, etc. Just hit "quote" the normal way, then copy the contents from the comment box on the previous thread to the one on the new thread.

    It kind of sucks that screenshots have ended up being the default way to share text on facebook and twitter, after we pretty much stamped that anti-pattern out in about 1993, but what can you do.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,238
    Of course, a game changer for the locals would be, just like in 2017, calling a GE during the campaign. Though calling one when the Tories are in the low 30s in the polls as opposed to the high 40s back then would be "brave".
  • isamisam Posts: 27,192
    edited April 8

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    GIN1138 said:

    Enjoy Lord Hayward's presentation Mike. :)

    I think Con will get a pasting in the locals and Con and Lab will face meltdown in the EU elections...

    That's my take too. Labour's activist base and not defending such high base should see it ok . Unless Corbyn sells out on Brexit

    PVs must be landing in two weeks or so
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,129

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    Complaining about the EU is what they enjoy the most. Essentially negative people who like complaining. It is an irony of irony that they use the childish epithet "remoaner" for those of us that thing the project is insane. They enjoy getting angry about faux injustice, much like members of the SNP. They will be subconsciously delighted if we don't leave, as will the Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330
    Morning all, so is this the week that we finally leave the EU?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,519
    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    They did care, but PR has been discussed since 1850 and we came closer than just discussion in 1974, 1996 and 2011. Neither main party wants it because they have a market duopoly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,352
    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330
    FPT:

    https://www.buzz.ie/news/something-seriously-wrong-childrens-content-youtube-261406

    YouTube has completely messed up children’s videos, even their supposedly curated “YouTube Kids” section is full of unsuitable content, and they seem either unwilling or unable to do anything about it.

    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450

    FPT because it's relevant (and Vanilla is going weird...):

    Early GE tip, Chloe has no chance of defending Norwich North unless the blue fortunes change dramatically, Norwich is trending further and further from the Tories even as Norfolk dyes ever bluer

    Yeah, this is the big trend for the forthcoming GE and tallies with that analysis doing the rounds of the Conservatives becoming more and more alien to young people - https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html if you haven't seen it.

    I'm in a true blue rural seat (Witney / West Oxfordshire) and fully expect it to be a marginal within 20 years. It's not just the age thing, but basically the Londonisation of the South-East. Rural Oxfordshire is getting 100,000 new houses by 2031, which are effectively "Greater Oxford" overspill. These new residents are going to vote as Oxford votes, and Oxford votes as London votes.

    Canterbury was an early harbinger of this. We are going to see much of the rural South-East turn gradually red, yellow, and whatever-colour-TIG-chooses over the next 20 years. The question is whether the post-industrial north will turn blue to balance it.

    (added for this thread...)

    We may see early signs of this in the May locals. Again, our District Council has a solid Conservative majority, but the areas most influenced by Oxford/London have been swinging Lib Dem (affluent rural, e.g. Woodstock) or Labour (urban, e.g. Witney). Local district councillors are all over Twitter saying they honestly have no idea what's going to go. Everyone expects one or two Conservative losses but it could be many more than that. Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in wards where they've never had a significant presence, and finding remarkably good signs on the doorstep.
    Where south cambs leads west Oxon follows
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
    AV would lead to a Parliament full of middle-of-the-road, least-unpopular politicians who could scrape 50.1% on someone’s seventh preference. Much less chance of seeing UKIP or Green types elected under AV than under FPTP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,303
    Obviously the CEO of BMW finally managed to knock down Merkel's door and now it will all be sorted.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,519
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
    AV would lead to a Parliament full of middle-of-the-road, least-unpopular politicians who could scrape 50.1% on someone’s seventh preference. Much less chance of seeing UKIP or Green types elected under AV than under FPTP.
    AV is not proportional. Cameron killed *PR* because that would have been the end of the Conservative and Labour parties.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    edited April 8
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
    AV would lead to a Parliament full of middle-of-the-road, least-unpopular politicians who could scrape 50.1% on someone’s seventh preference. Much less chance of seeing UKIP or Green types elected under AV than under FPTP.
    The same negligible chance would be more accurate.

    Someone like Lucas would get a lot of AV transfers in Brighton. And all ukip would need to do to win under AV is beat the Tory.

    And in all probability it would simply exaggerate the swing toward the larger main party
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,006
    edited April 8
    Why don't our MPs ever Skype or video conference?

    No reason in 2019 why May can't hold a Cabinet meeting from Berlin.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,645
    Sandpit said:


    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.


    Yep. Their advertising revenue is going to get hit too - I get constant and blatant criminal scams advertised to me, and they refuse to take them down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330
    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,430
    1000 days of Theresa May, wow, did not realize.

    Best one? Easy. No debate. Day 1. Back from the palace, grey and red designer dress, graceful yet determined, glowing with power and pride, Philip hovering like a rock (what?), the noble words about looking after people who are "just about managing". A government of the JAMS by the JAMS for the JAMS.

    And so it has proved, but not in the way intended or implied.

    And the worst day? Far too many contenders to mention. A tome could be written and no doubt many will be. My own 2 suggestions would be, (i) GE17, the morning after the night before, or (ii) the 230 thrashing at the hands of Meaningful Vote 1. Probably (i) because it was utterly unexpected.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,232

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
    AV would lead to a Parliament full of middle-of-the-road, least-unpopular politicians who could scrape 50.1% on someone’s seventh preference. Much less chance of seeing UKIP or Green types elected under AV than under FPTP.
    AV is not proportional. Cameron killed *PR* because that would have been the end of the Conservative and Labour parties.
    Tories have always been opposed to PR. Labour, to be fair, not so much.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 941
    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,307
    GIN1138 said:

    Why don't our MPs ever Skype or video conference?

    No reason in 2019 why May can't hold a Cabinet meeting from Berlin.
    Why not cut out the middlewoman and let Merkel hold it?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,336
    edited April 8
    Sandpit said:

    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.

    Works for them. The incumbents can afford huge legal and compliance departments and former deputy prime ministers on the payroll to lobby for them. Their competitors can't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    That last sentence has got us all bright green with envy Mike. :wink:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    Cooper - Letwin 2 will allow such a vote and May cannot stop it. She will have little input.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,090
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    No way May will permit No deal. She would go to the country rather than allow that, but there isn't time.

    Dilemma.

    Revoke would have to be accompanied by a rider of ...and a GE or ...and a PV.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,971
    Andrew said:

    Sandpit said:


    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.


    Yep. Their advertising revenue is going to get hit too - I get constant and blatant criminal scams advertised to me, and they refuse to take them down.
    Dragons back Binary options

    Peter Jones - I can't believe how much we've made !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    edited April 8
    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,977
    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.
    Revoke and then ban them all from restanding
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,336

    GIN1138 said:

    Why don't our MPs ever Skype or video conference?

    No reason in 2019 why May can't hold a Cabinet meeting from Berlin.
    Why not cut out the middlewoman and let Merkel hold it?
    Can you imagine how embarrassing it would be for TMay if Merkel invited all the different factions in for a meeting and got it all sorted out?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330

    Sandpit said:

    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.

    Works for them. The incumbents can afford huge legal and compliance departments and former deputy prime ministers on the payroll to lobby for them. Their competitors can't.
    Indeed. The difficult bit is how to frame legislation in such a way that these two massive companies get hit by it, but small startup competitors don’t. Something that legislators everywhere have traditionally been crap at getting right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,430
    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    Ishmael_Z said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    No way May will permit No deal. She would go to the country rather than allow that, but there isn't time.

    Dilemma.

    Revoke would have to be accompanied by a rider of ...and a GE or ...and a PV.
    Then Labour will pivot towards "not wasting time on another referendum or Brexit- focus on jobs n nurses and skools" for their manifesto.

    Hey presto - no Brexit as it goes down in flames with the Cons at the GE.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    TGOHF said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    No way May will permit No deal. She would go to the country rather than allow that, but there isn't time.

    Dilemma.

    Revoke would have to be accompanied by a rider of ...and a GE or ...and a PV.
    Then Labour will pivot towards "not wasting time on another referendum or Brexit- focus on jobs n nurses and skools" for their manifesto.

    Hey presto - no Brexit as it goes down in flames with the Cons at the GE.
    Sounds like a win-win to me! :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    Sandpit said:


    Large internet companies (for which read Google and Facebook) are going to be on the receiving end of some serious regulation in many countries if they can’t sort out the problem. That’s what happens when they make massive profits and don’t pay any taxes.


    Yep. Their advertising revenue is going to get hit too - I get constant and blatant criminal scams advertised to me, and they refuse to take them down.
    Dragons back Binary options

    Peter Jones - I can't believe how much we've made !
    Consumer champion Martin Lewis got an undisclosed (but it would have been large) payout from Facebook over ads with his image on them trying to sell all sorts of scams.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46972940
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,114
    edited April 8
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    Certainly *an* argument would have been had, but it wouldn't have enlightened much about our membership of the EU. Which potential UKIP MPs do you think would have changed things?

    There being a group of MPs hellbent on leaving would have provoked more debate on how to leave. It doesn’t matter who they were
    There were plenty of those in the Tory party. In any case, given the behaviour of the ERG and assorted Kippers, could you really be sure they genuinely would be hell-bent on leaving as opposed to just complaining about the EU?
    If the electoral system had been anywhere near representative of the voters, rather than giving 13% of them 0.1% of their fair share, the pre referendum debate would have been better and we’d be in better shape now. It is quite likely that Remain would have won I think. But no one cared because it was only UKIP.

    Imagine an all women or all BAME party getting 13% and one seat. The system would probably have been changed by now.
    Another Cameron failing - killing AV.
    AV would lead to a Parliament full of middle-of-the-road, least-unpopular politicians who could scrape 50.1% on someone’s seventh preference. Much less chance of seeing UKIP or Green types elected under AV than under FPTP.
    The same negligible chance would be more accurate.

    Someone like Lucas would get a lot of AV transfers in Brighton. And all ukip would need to do to win under AV is beat the Tory.

    And in all probability it would simply exaggerate the swing toward the larger main party
    Yes. Lucas arguably already HAS a vast amount of transfers. The Lab AND Tory vote shares have both fallen over each of the last 3 elections. Which is rather remarkable really.
    And she got 52% of the vote. So they wouldn't matter anyways.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    No way May will permit No deal. She would go to the country rather than allow that, but there isn't time.

    Dilemma.

    Revoke would have to be accompanied by a rider of ...and a GE or ...and a PV.
    In consdiration yes, maybe. Revoke call a GE and promise to push through the WA if they give a majority?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,336
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
    There's still the Mueller Report to come. Burying Trump with it would be too obvious, but they have to do something with it, why wouldn't they do Brexit?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    TGOHF said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    No way May will permit No deal. She would go to the country rather than allow that, but there isn't time.

    Dilemma.

    Revoke would have to be accompanied by a rider of ...and a GE or ...and a PV.
    Then Labour will pivot towards "not wasting time on another referendum or Brexit- focus on jobs n nurses and skools" for their manifesto.

    Hey presto - no Brexit as it goes down in flames with the Cons at the GE.
    Yes, May doesn't really need a TARDIS to decide not to go for a GE. However keen she is to erase the shame of 2017
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    edited April 8

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
    A tie, and Bercow can decide
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    Or

    "Not the PM"

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,028
    Since we appear to be having a caesura in the Brexit cacophony, a distraction with Labour plans for federalism, part 417, by a Marxist baroness (is this a mistake?-ed) no less!



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    TGOHF said:

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    Or

    "Not the PM"

    A facet of 'not thought through'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
    A tie, and Bercow can decide
    Or Fiona Onasanya, as happened last week. Or maybe the Shinners turn up and take their seats? I’m not sure it’s possible to think of something too far fetched, after everything that’s gone before.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,627

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    The Brexit Leadership look like dinosaurs. No one born post Charles Dickens can identify with them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    If revoke passes by 100 votes she wont overrule that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,307

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    The whole problem with the MPs' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not fucking happening......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450
    edited April 8

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    And chasing the birds in the bush
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    Maybe we should invite Malta to implement the referendum they passed to become part of the UK with 3 MPs and really screw the EU over. Plus have somewhere warm to retire to.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,232
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
    A tie, and Bercow can decide
    Backs Remain and leaves the country.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    If revoke passes by 100 votes she wont overrule that.
    Agreed. But if it's very tight she might, and it would be I think, mps like their job and voting revoke is voting themselves out next time around for many
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,133

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s going to come down to one binary vote, isn’t it? Either No Deal or Revoke A50 - followed shortly by an election, at which the MPs can all be individually held accountable for their decision.

    If this were a movie, that would be the ending. Other endings need not apply.

    However, much as this Brexit drama has thus far delivered thrills and spills superior to anything on Netflix, I fear we will be cheated at the death.

    It is going to be another extension. As usual, the desire for a follow-up series will trump artistic integrity.
    A tie, and Bercow can decide
    Backs Remain and leaves the country.
    Well it's their turn (assuming no emergency debate later). We'd be having MP votes on the composite options today if he hadn't backed the government on that tie
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744

    TGOHF said:

    The whole problem with the Leavers' approach to Brexit, and the reason we are in the current mess, can be summarised in three words:

    Not thought through

    Or

    "Not the PM"

    A facet of 'not thought through'.
    Well they tried - but the wetter Con MPs stupidly thought May could lead them through the impasse - a terrible decision in hindsight.

    In a GE , opposition candidates should point this out to voters - "my opponent supported May" - should shift a few votes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,977

    isam said:

    FPT

    [posts screenshot]

    Maybe better to use the normal quoting if possible, it's better for people who are blind or have bad vision, they can use screen readers, different fonts, etc. Just hit "quote" the normal way, then copy the contents from the comment box on the previous thread to the one on the new thread.

    It kind of sucks that screenshots have ended up being the default way to share text on facebook and twitter, after we pretty much stamped that anti-pattern out in about 1993, but what can you do.
    I feel the same way about dual share classes / super voting stock

    But I acknowledge that may be a niche concern

    🤓
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,913
    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    It was a simple question on this topic, but it was backed up with a heck of a lot of other ancillary information. For instance, in that question, 'remain' meant on the terms of Cameron's deal. Because Cameron and his team had done the work to define what it meant.

    There was no such ancillary information on what leave meant, just a whole load of wish-lists from various people, several large items of which were incompatible and inconsistent.

    Which is why we're in this mess.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,977
    GIN1138 said:

    Why don't our MPs ever Skype or video conference?

    No reason in 2019 why May can't hold a Cabinet meeting from Berlin.
    Security
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    The carnage will be in the Tory party. Everyone else can get on with our lives
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,723
    TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    If revoke passes by 100 votes she wont overrule that.
    I doubt she'd overrule it if revoke passes by Bercow's vote tbh.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,090

    Maybe we should invite Malta to implement the referendum they passed to become part of the UK with 3 MPs and really screw the EU over. Plus have somewhere warm to retire to.

    LOL I knew that happened but had forgotten that it passed. One in the eye for therwilloftherpeople.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    Labour voters may be sated by the implosion of the Cons.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    The carnage will be in the Tory party. Everyone else can get on with our lives
    Optimistic. The 'betrayal' movement will begin imo
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,977

    Charles said:

    FPT @JosiasJessop

    I think we are going to differ on the referendum

    In my view there was a simple question on the ballot: leave or remain.

    That is the question that was asked and answered

    Of course different people had different visions for the future and voters chose how to case their votes based on their own motivations

    The only hard fact that we have is that the voters instructed the government to arrange for the U.K. to leave. The precise details and timing are a political choice for them to make and reap the rewards / pay the price

    And the government has arranged for the UK to Leave. Unfortunately the people's representatives, elected more recently than the referendum, do not support the government's proposals. Worse than that, the lack of support includes many Leave MPs.

    The only answer is to ask the people to tell parliament to implement May's Deal... or to not implement it, as the people wish.
    Agreed.

    I’m not a fan of deal / no deal as a referendum because it’s the result of obstruction by politicians but if it has to be that way then so be it
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    TGOHF said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    Labour voters may be sated by the implosion of the Cons.
    They might, yes. Bigger problems may arise though
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,450

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,232

    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    The carnage will be in the Tory party. Everyone else can get on with our lives
    Optimistic. The 'betrayal' movement will begin imo
    I fear you are right, but the bullet will have to be bitten. Maybe some sort of gesture of goodwill from the EU would help, but I'm not too confident.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,330

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    Starting with the EU elections, if we take part in those.

    Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan aren’t going to go away as MEPs, and there’s a good chance we might end up with ‘Tommy Robinson’ and a few of his friends elected to Brussels too - just as we did with Nick Griffin and Andrew Brons back in 2009.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,744
    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
    Labour may split. Into a stupid party and a stupider party. Both in favour of higher taxes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,574
    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
    A nasty party and a very nasty party.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,430

    There's still the Mueller Report to come. Burying Trump with it would be too obvious, but they have to do something with it, why wouldn't they do Brexit?

    Mueller. Yes, that was another with a shaggy dog ending. Unless there remains a twist.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 5,243
    IanB2 said:

    notme2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:

    It's all gone quiet hasn't it this morning?

    After weeks of it being the only news story, Brexit has dropped down to six or seven so what's happening or rather what's not happening?

    The Prime Minister's Sunday afternoon chat to the people enjoying their roast beef lunch seems to have gone predictably well. In lieu of there being no MV4, we are forced to either leave on Friday evening or hope the EU will grant a long extension so the whole thing can be either sorted out or forgotten about.

    The politics of a long extension don't look clear to me and there's the assumption the EU will grant it. The Tusk "flexstension" seems to have confused everyone which was perhaps the objective but there's a strange calm - before a storm, who can say or will Brexit end not with a bang but with a whimper?

    The EU can have a revocation by the weekend if they block an extension- MPs are ready to vote for one if a gun is put to their head.
    No way May will permit a revoke. She will go to the country rather than allow that.
    How? She does not have that power, and arranging and running a GE between Wednesday and Friday will require a Tardis.
    She has to revoke it personally. Whilst she is PM she can theoretically block revoke by simply not doing it. Whether she would do such a thing is another matter. Pretty much no MP voting revoke- with a four figure majority is getting back in though, it'll be carnage
    I doubt it, people will be relieved that it's all over.
    It wont be all over though, it will dominate politics, the sense of betrayal of nearly half of voters isn't going away if we revoke, it intensifies. We lurch towards extremists promising no deal exit without referendum
    The Tories can split into a sensible party and a stupid party, both in favour of PR
    Yes, this guaranteed implosion of the Tories does make their support for revoke doubtful though
This discussion has been closed.