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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets
A quick look across the Brexit related betting markets suggest that there has been relatively little movement given the developments last night. That might be because Theresa May didn’t get her very short extension and neither did the EU leadership get their longer one.
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Remain, then WA or remain if Remain vs no deal
Well, you did ask...
However, he is said to have given his successor, Theresa May, a private understanding that he would not publish the autobiography until after Britain had left the European Union so as 'not to rock the boat'.
Indeed, I wonder if we'll actually see anything resolved before the summer recess. Tories won't want to do anything much till the locals, then nothing much till the Euros, and then we're just a few weeks from the break.
But the Conservative conference in October should be interesting. What if we've formally withdrawn then and May makes a speech saying "I finally got us over the line, now let me finish the job"?
holidayrecess next week?https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/eu27-is-now-free-to-hold-summits-without-the-uk/
So if there were a referendum now I would vote Remain in a Remain/No Deal or Remain/May’s deal choice. If the choice was May’s Deal/No Deal I’d vote May’s Deal.
I know three Leavers who have changed their minds, largely because of the utter pig’s ear the Brexit camp have made of the whole thing. That - and as one person put it - the fact that the EU has behaved like grown ups - contrary to expectations. Anecdotal I know.
If it happens at all it will be when a whole new generation of politicians are in power and, by then, everyone will have made up their minds anyway.
Stupid woman.
No doubt a public enquiry would find the civil service behaved impeccably and it was all the fault of the voters.
As many people have mentioned, the prospect now of Britain being almost eternally "in transition" is not impossible now ; in fact that ambivalence might quite accurately represent both the country's split and fatigue with the process.
Not to mention the damage that has already been caused and will be even worse if we end up staying in having voted to leave.
I'd add that if we stay, that'll shatter the Conservatives and improve Corbyn's chances of winning the subsequent election massively. And whilst there are some daft sods in the Conservatives, the worst of them are the backbenchers, whereas Labour's lunatics are squatting on the front bench.
I wouldn't vote in another referendum. Well I would but spoil my ballot.
"Respondents were asked: “If a hypothetical General Election were held today with the following parties available to vote for, who would you vote for?”, with options for The Brexit Party and Change UK included as additions.
The poll shows The Brexit Party attracting the support of 6%, whilst Change UK receives 8%. The poll suggests that both of the major parties are set to lose some support. However, the results indicate that it is the Conservative Party who would be most affected, with a potential drop of 6 percentage points, compared to the three point drop for Labour. That said, given that awareness of both parties is still fairly low, plus the usual caveats for the margin of error, readers should treat the changes with a degree of caution.
Unlike other polls examining support for Change UK and The Brexit Party, the question did not include a preamble explaining who each of the parties were or information on each of their respective policy agendas. Our poll therefore relies exclusively on respondents “top-of-mind” awareness each of the new political outfits, with little chance that any respondents stating they would vote for them as a result of being primed by the wording of the questions or previous questions."
https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-april-2019/
The thought experiment of a referendum on completely denuclearizing in the 1960s is a good argument against referendums.
Anyway, I'd vote Remain, like last time, but I'd be happy enough if May's deal won since atleast it would be an end to it and would shut up everyone but the most diehard.
God forbid if "No Deal" is an option on the ballot paper.
Cette valse de plus en plus incompréhensible des dates montre que le Royaume-Uni a réussi l’exploit d’exporter ses batailles byzantines internes à Bruxelles. Car ce sommet a fait voler en éclat le beau front uni des Européens qui tenait vaille que vaille depuis trois ans, à l’image d’un couple franco-allemand décidément de plus en plus fictionnel.
https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2019/04/11/brexit-les-europeens-accordent-un-nouveau-report-jusqu-au-31-octobre_1720646?xtor=rss-450&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=dlvr.it
I have to say that I am beginning to rethink my whole approach to the EU. I wonder whether it might not be better to get more involved. Bear with me: some say that an EU army would be a terrible thing. But would it be such a bad thing for the EU to take European defence more seriously? After all the US is retreating from Europe and Putin is being aggressive so maybe the old verities are no longer true and we need some fresh thinking. Ditto re the euro and re taxation of large global companies. And, maybe, rather than retreating into national nativist and nastily illiberal parties we should look to see how we can develop a much more liberal Europe-wide demos.
I don’t know and my thinking on this has barely started and if I have time (I have a new project starting soon) I may do some thread headers on this. But as I’ve banged on about this before, we - and the EU - need a proper strategy about how we interact with each other. The tragedy of Brexit is that none of that fresh thinking about what such a British/ European strategy should be has been done. It has been a colossal wasted opportunity.
'Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.'
The MPS had a duty to execute the warrant, on behalf of Westminster Magistrates' Court, and was invited into the embassy by the Ambassador, following the Ecuadorian government's withdrawal of asylum.
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1116273279583576065