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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slump to new lows in both Westminster and Euro polls
Latest Westminster polling numbers from @OpiniumResearch sees the Tories down to just 22%. BREX now in third place just one point behindLAB 28 (-5)CON 22 (-4)BREX 21 (+4)LD 11 (+5) UKIP 4CHUK 4 ,
0
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I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
> Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
Typo, judging by the context.
> I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
>
> I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
It's hard to say.
As we've never had a democratic vote that wasn't implemented because the losers refused to accept the result it's difficult to know what is going to happen...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
...etc...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
>
> Typo, judging by the context.
Autocorrect is to blame.
> I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
>
> I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
That's my view too at present, but it shows a potential in the (unlikely) event of Farage getting a full slate of non-embrrassing candidates.
> The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
I'm sure Brexit Party would rather have that "danger" than be in the position of those losers in CUK.
> The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
> Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.
It is the final week that matters.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
> >
> > Typo, judging by the context.
>
> Autocorrect is to blame.
I trust that they have been banned.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
>
> Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
AND
> @GIN1138 said:
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > I can understand the Euro numbers but I simply don't believe that TBP will get anywhere near 20% at a GE. I wonder if there is a big difference in VI numbers for the GE when there is no Euro vote question in the same poll?
> >
> > I do understand I have nothing beyond my own views to support this position but I struggle to see Farage getting too far into double figures in anything other than the Euro elections.
>
> It's hard to say.
>
> As we've never had a democratic vote that wasn't implemented because the losers refused to accept the result it's difficult to know what is going to happen...
We're in uncharted territory. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory pendulum that's been in continuous operation since the 1930s is broken. Both parties are simultaneously loathed. Who knows where it will end? I'm quite sure I don't.
Should that read 'Farage’s far-rightedness'?
I await the Telegraph poll with contented anticipation.
> Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
That's very unfair. It's not *all* of them...
> > @RobD said:
> > Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
>
> That's very unfair. It's not *all* of them...
Just most of them?
> FPT:
>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> ...etc...
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
>
> On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
>
> We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
>
> Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
Yep, they’re such victims.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
>
> Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
Unlikely most polls are online now. The shy voter is really only seen in phone or face to face polling .
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1127266889560993794
>
>
The Good Ship May... Is About To Crash.
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1127266889560993794
>
>
That cartoon reminds me of the frog show at the Wynn casino in Las Vegas.
> > @Artist said:
> > Remainers are hardly rallying towards the Lib Dems though, only a small boost from the local elections in polls so far. They just can't get Labour voters to give them a chance.
>
> It is the final week that matters.
Euro elections are very different to by elections etc . People are really not very interested.
> No.
>
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
She means business with that new hair style.
#InLizWeTruss
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/11/raab-infuriating-eu-demands-may-never-dared-make-shows-should/
Lord JohnO Of PB heading for HoL?
> No.
>
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
Bad hair day Liz?
When they win the Euros all anyone will be talking about is the fact they polled higher beforehand!!! 😂
> No.
>
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
That is a disgrace!
https://youtu.be/r0M1YEf9s0g
https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
> https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
Hah, you got there just before I did!
Can’t be easy preparing for it when her boss the Chancellor and PM probably won’t be in their jobs by the time it is due to be delivered in November.
I know it’s not as mundane as doing a photo shoot but does her interview address what areas she is looking to cut or increase? As it will affect millions for years to come!
Not as fun as polls but a CSR preparation used to be big news before Brexit!
> The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
>
There's that damn arrow again.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The danger for the Brexit party now is that it under-performs compared to the polls in the actual election.
>
> Wouldn't be surprised if there were shy Brexit Party voters. After all they have been told they are scum of the earth racists for the past three years.
Leavers are indeed notorious for their reticence in outlining their views.
> The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
> https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> There's that damn arrow again.
>
> We need to get shot of it.
It's making me quiver.
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Is 'The Tourists' a nickname for the Conservatives I don't know or is it a typo of Tories? If the former can someone enlighten me?
>
>
>
> Typo, judging by the context.
>
> The Accidental Tory.
Sarah Wollaston
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
>
>
> Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
>
> Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > FPT:
> >
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > ...etc...
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
> >
> > On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
> >
> > We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
>
> No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.
The Labour seat count is remarkably resilient at low vote %s, Coventry North West is ordered seat 190 - and knowing Coventry, that'll probably be Labour forever !
> Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?
No. Last I read he was doing consultancy work for Tory MPs that want HS2 cancelled.
> @williamglenn said:
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1127213965161975808
> #InLizWeTruss
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxTApN7Mq-E
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > FPT:
> >
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > ...etc...
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > I see the God-awful arrows still haven't gone away.
> >
> > On the general topic of the trends in recent polls, it's entirely possible that a General Election split 25% Lab, 20% Con, 15% LD and 30% Brexit could very easily produce an outright Labour majority, over 200 seats for the Tories, 30 for the Lib Dems and precisely zero for the Brexit Party. Though in Scotland, of course, it'll be 59/59 (or something very close) for the SNP based on less than half the votes cast.
> >
> > We will then get the ritual excuses for why FPTP is the Will of God and must continue forever, no doubt.
>
> No. That sort of result would give Corbyn and Farage 200-odd seats each and the Tories about 100. Farage needs about 25% to start winning significant numbers of seats.
Yep. I put that Westminster poll into Electoral Calculus, and BP came out with 21 seats on 21%. All from the Tories, except Hartlepool. (Although still 1 behind the LD's).
The gains are exponential with every extra percentage point.
As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.
Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.
It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.
It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.
It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.
The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.
They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.
I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.
> No. Last I read he was doing consultancy work for Tory MPs that want HS2 cancelled.
>
> HS2 nailed on to reach Edinburgh.
Replacement bus service
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> >
> >
> > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
> >
> > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
>
> Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
Depends if they can get their shit together once they have to agree on a policy platform beyond Hard Brexit.
The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.
Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
> Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?
Cummings thought he was a genius and Farage was a liability. The Brexit Party is proving him wrong.
> So, thoughts on the Brexit Party's PPB.
>
> As others on Twitter have said, "the establishment isn't going to know what hit it". It's slick, professional and has a very simple message: you can't trust the establishment, but you can trust us, because we are people just like you.
>
> Leave aside for a moment your doubts about whether that's true or not, this is a PPB designed to make your average person think the Brexit Party is behind them.
>
> It doesn't go all angry and shouty. It doesn't scream betrayal. It speaks softly about being let down. Disappointed. But believing in better.
>
> It uses a broad cross section of society - age, gender, colour, town/country to appear inclusive. The message is subtle but clear: We're not UKIP! We're not closet racists! We're not a bunch of old boys in blazers. Etc.
>
> It sticks to a simple message. It uses lots of light and hazy soft focus with an optimistic, upbeat soundtrack to reinforce the feeling of positive change. It's strictly middle of the road, but it makes the Brexit party cuddly. These are candidates you could have a pint with, or bump into in the shops, or invite in for a cup of tea.
>
> The Brexit Party must be a serious contender now, not just for the Euro elections but for Westminster as well.
>
> They are promising change to people who have felt let down by politicians for years. And change is a powerful thing.
>
> I would not be surprised to see the Brexit Party leading in quite a few Westminster polls when this broadcast airs.
>
>
Yep, Con and Lab are not going to know what's hit them.
Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
27 more Labour MPs?
> Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
>
> Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
>
> 27 more Labour MPs?
I think you may assume incorrectly. I reckon the message to them is an open invite to be one of those candidates.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Is Dom Cummings involved in the Brexit party ?
>
> Cummings thought he was a genius and Farage was a liability. The Brexit Party is proving him wrong.
I disagree with this. At the time of the Ref I think Farage was a liability. I am a leave voter and I watched Farage at the minor leaders TV show 2015 talk about we should not treat foreign people with HIV and grimaced. At this time I think it was getting a bit much for him. To me his poster reinforced this view, the ref was more than just immigration (but this was a major part).
I think Farage has refreshed his batteries and had a think about where he was going wrong last time. He is a better politician for it.
> Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
>
> Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
>
> 27 more Labour MPs?
They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
And 27 long serving Tory MPs who are just like you also...
>
> Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
Genius.
Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date...
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> >
> >
> > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
> >
> > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
>
> Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
> They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
>
> They want candidates not to stand...
>
> Genius.
Sounds like you are gettong worried that remain is disappearing over the horizon
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
> >
> > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
> >
> > 27 more Labour MPs?
>
> They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
>
> Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
I think the chaos is in Tory seats!
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> > >
> > >
> > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
> > >
> > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
> >
> > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
>
> I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
cf Chukka UK CHUK though.
Farage has done a much better job, and he has a slightly better argument to sell.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> >
> > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
>
> How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
>
>
Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
> > >
> > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
> > >
> > > 27 more Labour MPs?
> >
> > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
> >
> > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
>
> I think the chaos is in Tory seats!
I think you are trying to deflect the chaos labour will see over this
> The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.
>
> Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
>
> They can't. So they won't.
>
> Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
>
> Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date...
Well, this could be argued to be true up to a point, but they're going to need some kind of common platform to present - even if it's only a few pages long and consists of a handful of pledges of what they will and will not do.
My main concern would also be of a Labour victory on a paltry share of the vote, but if we find ourselves anywhere close to a situation where Lab, Con, LD and Brexit are all reasonably close together in terms of vote share then frankly who knows for sure what might happen?
> The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
> https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> @williamglenn said:
> The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
>
> https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
Time for your medication Darren......
I guess the next hurdles for the Brexit Party are a bit harder:
(i) Are all these candidates squeaky clean?
(ii) Will any of these candidates say some thing dumb/racist/barking when out campaigning?
As the Tiggers found out, the launch is the easier bit. The funny tinges come later.
But. I would be very worried if I was a Peoples Voter. I don't think at the moment Remain have any effective spokespeople at all (except possibly Sturgeon).
The Remainer politicians have really abysmally failed so far and look like they would feck up a second referendum.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> > >
> > >
> > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
> > >
> > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
> >
> > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
>
> I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
> > @CatMan said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > >
> > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
> >
> > How can they do that and not make it sound like "Let's return to Empire!" though?
> >
> >
>
> Because the pitch would have nothing to do with Empire. It would be about cohesive communities, respect for the regions from London centric political parties, etc, etc.
Why would Brexit fix that? Nothing there that wasn't already under our control.
The last few years haven't exaxtly brought communities and regions together!
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > Apparently Brignitas want to field 650 candidates at the GE
> > > >
> > > > Assuming they don't want Westminster retreads to sully their brand, what happens when they stand against the Spartans?
> > > >
> > > > 27 more Labour MPs?
> > >
> > > They have said they will not stand against any conservative mp who supports no deal
> > >
> > > Also can you imagine the chaos in labour mps in leave seats
> >
> > I think the chaos is in Tory seats!
>
> I think you are trying to deflect the chaos labour will see over this
I think Labour are quite enjoying Tory seppuko!
>
> I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
>
> I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
>
> This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
Yes I think you're right. In some ways I think the risk for the Brexit Party could be that they overshoot and actually do destroy the Conservatives instead of nudging them in the desired direction.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > The Brexit Party's election broadcast.
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1127282189190729728
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Pretty much perfect in tone and delivery.
> > > >
> > > > Has the Brexit Party made any mistakes since their launch? This is a very, very formidable outfit.
> > >
> > > Yup and they have not unleashed the MUKGA campaign yet.
> >
> > I'm not the target audience but I'm not especially impressed. It does a reasonable job of showing they're not just about Farage, but apart from Widdecombe, the candidates all sound and look stagey (what's the camera action stuff at the start?), though that makes Farage's bits look normal by comparison.
>
> I think its middle-of-the-roadness is its strength. As far as broadcasts go, it's actually quite comfortingly bland. But that's the idea. It's not trying to be clever. Nor is it angry and ranty. Nor does it put Farage front and centre. It uses an everyman approach to convince ordinary people that the Brexit Party stands behind them.
>
> I think what's clever about it is the target audience aren't true believers, it's not aiming to whip up the core vote in a frothy angry frenzy. It's trying to reach out and broaden the appeal of the Brexit party to people who feel let down by the current crop of politicians but feel uncomfortable about voting for a "nasty" party. That was always the problem with UKIP. The Brexit party isn't (yet) so encumbered.
>
> This is about making people who never in a million years would have felt comfortable voting UKIP feel comfortable voting Brexit Party. And I reckon it will do that.
I am not a supporter of Farage's party but their election broadcast is very simple with a message of betrayal and may well influence many voters
What is true is the remain parties seem to have left the field and the prospect of remaining is fading day by day
> > @viewcode said:
> > The big vacant space in politics is for a mass market political movement for people who are, in broad brush terms, socially conservative and moderately left of centre on economics and public spending. It doesn't take a genius to drawn up the outline of a manifesto to try to win this segment of the electorate: shire Tories, especially outside the south-east, and the traditional Labour vote in the Midlands and North.
> >
> > Whether they can pull off such a manifesto - that's the big question.
> >
> > They can't. So they won't.
> >
> > Manifestos are just distractions and large targets, as May found out. Who remembers Dave's 2010 manifesto (or Brown's for that matter)? The only thing anybody remembers from Con manifesto 2015 was the referendum committment, and Con manifesto 2017 was "we're going to take your house from you". Far easier not to do that.
> >
> > Stick to vagaries, get celeb endorsements, embody the anger, focus-group like crazy, and they might win. My gut says they'll split the difference and let in Corbyn, but my gut has been wrong before. We'll know closer to the date...
>
> Well, this could be argued to be true up to a point, but they're going to need some kind of common platform to present - even if it's only a few pages long and consists of a handful of pledges of what they will and will not do.
>
> My main concern would also be of a Labour victory on a paltry share of the vote, but if we find ourselves anywhere close to a situation where Lab, Con, LD and Brexit are all reasonably close together in terms of vote share then frankly who knows for sure what might happen?
Even if it is only a bullet point manifesto, they will still be questioned about what they intend to do on tax and spend, education, NHS, pensions, social care, and a host of other things we can't think of now. The danger is that different candidates will give answers completely at odds with each other.
Whether that will be fatal, or forgiven because "they are people like you" is another question.
> https://twitter.com/edwardmalnick/status/1127302582949617664
Lib Dems + ChUK on 21%.
That he's priced the way he is in the next PM market is astonishing - it'll take a disorderly GE to get him there. Noone's laying these prices though.
Admittedly these markets have also featured David 'Lazarus' Milliband for a while, and John Bercow has not been ruled out of the Labour leadership apparently.
"The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."
> https://twitter.com/edwardmalnick/status/1127302582949617664
My Lords! Dreadful!
> Telegraph scoop is
>
> "The Brexit Party has overtaken the Conservatives in national polling for the first time, with Nigel Farage predicted to win 49 seats in a general election, a bombshell poll reveals."
And they said it couldn't happen with FPTP.