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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prim

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prime Minister

No 10 says May will only resign when she is confident her successor can command confidence of Commons, @rowenamason reports – https://t.co/Bd7nOwMfoG

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    edited June 6
    May is going to have to be dragged out of Downing St by her fingertips...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,930
    Lost me at automaticity.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,780
    Third like Gove.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 285
    From a related twitter exchange yesterday:

    If they are invited to form a government, ‘kiss hands’ as it is called, they become PM.

    Other responders pointing out they could conceivably then fail to form a government are also right.

    — Dr Catherine Haddon (@cath_haddon) June 4, 2019
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    What a catch
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294
    GIN1138 said:

    May is going to have to be dragged out of Downing St by her fingertips...

    Yep. FPT @RichardTyndall said she will need to be subjected to a VONC to get her out. Even then she'd try to stay on.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 474
    I can't help but feel that this, like all of May's other clever wheezes, is going to backfire, possibly spectacularly.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 255
    GIN1138 said:

    May is going to have to be dragged out of Downing St by her fingertips...

    That's even harder to do now that she's got use of the fingerholds Gordon Brown made in the doorframe.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,338
    shadsy said:

    From a related twitter exchange yesterday:

    If they are invited to form a government, ‘kiss hands’ as it is called, they become PM.

    Other responders pointing out they could conceivably then fail to form a government are also right.

    — Dr Catherine Haddon (@cath_haddon) June 4, 2019


    Theresa May appears, from today's announcement, to have taken the Gordon Brown approach of remaining in situ until a clear replacement is identified. So a new Prime Minister will only kiss hands when a person who seems capable of commanding the confidence of the House has been found.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    GIN1138 said:

    May is going to have to be dragged out of Downing St by her fingertips...

    Hardly the most effective way of dragging someone....

    So the metaphor is likely apposite.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,338
    edited June 6
    Animal_pb said:

    I can't help but feel that this, like all of May's other clever wheezes, is going to backfire, possibly spectacularly.

    I don't think this is a wheeze. This is Theresa May offering political cover for the Palace, which otherwise would be politically exposed.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,879
    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    Yeah he needs to change it to
    It's not automatic...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,031
    FPT
    kjohnw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does May's announcement hurt Boris in the Tory leader contest ?

    I think both Hunt and Gove would get the support of the commons. The seventh hell spectacle of Boris being blocked by May might be on a few MPs minds.

    If she attempted to block Boris becoming PM the erg would force a vote of no confidence in the government in collaboration with opposition or the 22 committee would change the rules allowing a VONC in TM
    The 1922 committee would be irrelevant. She'd already no longer be Tory leader. And why would Labour collaborate with the ERG to put Boris Johnson in Downing Street?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    edited June 6
    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    GIN1138 said:

    May is going to have to be dragged out of Downing St by her fingertips...

    Good for her. Hell hath no fury and all that. It will be a delicious irony that historians will judge that the reason Brexit failed was because of the inability to compromise by headbangers thickheads and charlatans that led to Theresa May taking the ultimate revenge and thwarting all their wet dreams .
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,433

    shadsy said:

    From a related twitter exchange yesterday:

    If they are invited to form a government, ‘kiss hands’ as it is called, they become PM.

    Other responders pointing out they could conceivably then fail to form a government are also right.

    — Dr Catherine Haddon (@cath_haddon) June 4, 2019
    Theresa May appears, from today's announcement, to have taken the Gordon Brown approach of remaining in situ until a clear replacement is identified. So a new Prime Minister will only kiss hands when a person who seems capable of commanding the confidence of the House has been found.


    That's not unreasonable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    Australia making a game of it after all.
    NCN, with an ODI average of 12.8, now in the mid sixties.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    shadsy said:

    From a related twitter exchange yesterday:

    If they are invited to form a government, ‘kiss hands’ as it is called, they become PM.

    Other responders pointing out they could conceivably then fail to form a government are also right.

    — Dr Catherine Haddon (@cath_haddon) June 4, 2019
    Theresa May appears, from today's announcement, to have taken the Gordon Brown approach of remaining in situ until a clear replacement is identified. So a new Prime Minister will only kiss hands when a person who seems capable of commanding the confidence of the House has been found.


    Which is the correct procedure
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited June 6

    FPT

    kjohnw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does May's announcement hurt Boris in the Tory leader contest ?

    I think both Hunt and Gove would get the support of the commons. The seventh hell spectacle of Boris being blocked by May might be on a few MPs minds.

    If she attempted to block Boris becoming PM the erg would force a vote of no confidence in the government in collaboration with opposition or the 22 committee would change the rules allowing a VONC in TM
    The 1922 committee would be irrelevant. She'd already no longer be Tory leader. And why would Labour collaborate with the ERG to put Boris Johnson in Downing Street?
    Presumably because they think they could win the election!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264

    Animal_pb said:

    I can't help but feel that this, like all of May's other clever wheezes, is going to backfire, possibly spectacularly.

    I don't think this is a wheeze. This is Theresa May offering political cover for the Palace, which otherwise would be politically exposed.
    Agreed.
    Her idea of ‘duty’ is a somewhat eccentric one, but that is what it is. And seeing it as a matter of principle (cf Richard T. in the last thread), she’s likely to be hard to sway.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,031
    kjohnw said:

    FPT

    kjohnw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does May's announcement hurt Boris in the Tory leader contest ?

    I think both Hunt and Gove would get the support of the commons. The seventh hell spectacle of Boris being blocked by May might be on a few MPs minds.

    If she attempted to block Boris becoming PM the erg would force a vote of no confidence in the government in collaboration with opposition or the 22 committee would change the rules allowing a VONC in TM
    The 1922 committee would be irrelevant. She'd already no longer be Tory leader. And why would Labour collaborate with the ERG to put Boris Johnson in Downing Street?
    Presumably because they think they could win the election!
    So it would be to get May out, not to put Boris in?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    May would be portrayed as the squatter in Downing Street, she will be pressured by the parliamentary party to resign if she tries to cling on past July 22nd
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 1,356
    edited June 6

    shadsy said:

    From a related twitter exchange yesterday:

    If they are invited to form a government, ‘kiss hands’ as it is called, they become PM.

    Other responders pointing out they could conceivably then fail to form a government are also right.

    — Dr Catherine Haddon (@cath_haddon) June 4, 2019
    Theresa May appears, from today's announcement, to have taken the Gordon Brown approach of remaining in situ until a clear replacement is identified. So a new Prime Minister will only kiss hands when a person who seems capable of commanding the confidence of the House has been found.
    Gordon Brown actually did the opposite to what yuo accuse him of. He buggered off well before the coalition agreement was finalised.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,780
    Even if it means missing out on a bit of money, this would be fun to watch playing out.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    edited June 6

    Theresa May appears, from today's announcement, to have taken the Gordon Brown approach of remaining in situ until a clear replacement is identified. So a new Prime Minister will only kiss hands when a person who seems capable of commanding the confidence of the House has been found.

    Gordon Brown took the Ted Heath approach. The correct approach. Theresa May appears to be going beyond that. The Heath/Brown approach would see May hand over to the newly elected leader on the natural assumption that the current arrangement with the DUP would roll over.

    Theresa May appears to be positing a series of hypothetical confidence votes in a series of leaders before she will go to the Palace. These votes could only be held in her own head.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the Conservative Party (of which I am still a member) has become so ill with the madness known as Brexit that it has become totally deluded. They are behaving as though they can change leader and that leader will automatically become PM as though they have a substantial majority. They do not. they are a minority government FFS. I am amazed it has taken this long to dawn on them. If Johnson becomes leader, or maybe even super-lightweight-Raab it is highly likely there will be whip resignations. They will not be able to command a majority. Johnson might as well withdraw, again!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    A poser's word for guarantee.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    The next Con leader could have a rather embarrassing place in history.

    If Theresa May stays on as PM until after an autumn election they could be the Con leader who became LOTO and never got the chance to become PM.

    Or even worse if Theresa May resigns as PM in July but they lose the October election they could beat George Canning's record as shortest serving PM.

    No one wants that record so maybe it will be in the interests of the new Con leader to ask TM to stay on as PM until after a general election?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    tlg86 said:

    Even if it means missing out on a bit of money, this would be fun to watch playing out.

    This could be the greatest constitutional crisis since the bedchamber crisis.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,059

    on the natural assumption that the current arrangement with the DUP would roll over.

    The DUP have already said that it doesn't roll over. Even if May was not resigning, the agreement ends with this term of Parliament.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    A poser's word for guarantee.
    Do you mean poseur? :smiley:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    tlg86 said:

    Even if it means missing out on a bit of money, this would be fun to watch playing out.

    This could be the greatest constitutional crisis since the bedchamber crisis.
    If it led to some serious constitutional reform, such as directly elected PMs, it would mean something good has come of all this froth and nonsense.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,338
    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037


    I don't think this is a wheeze. This is Theresa May offering political cover for the Palace, which otherwise would be politically exposed.

    Just the opposite, surely? She is dropping the Palace right in it.

    It is inconceivable that any new Tory leader cannot form a government. They could simply make all their supporters ministers.

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Pulpstar said:
    Will that overcome the growing fears that she WILL make the cut
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    A poser's word for guarantee.
    Do you mean poseur? :smiley:
    Yes, I blame ducking auto-correct.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,059

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    Maybe Ken Clarke will be the next PM after all!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012

    I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the Conservative Party (of which I am still a member) has become so ill with the madness known as Brexit that it has become totally deluded. They are behaving as though they can change leader and that leader will automatically become PM as though they have a substantial majority. They do not. they are a minority government FFS. I am amazed it has taken this long to dawn on them. If Johnson becomes leader, or maybe even super-lightweight-Raab it is highly likely there will be whip resignations. They will not be able to command a majority. Johnson might as well withdraw, again!

    That cuts both ways, though*.

    If Rory Stewart were to become PM, then it's possible the Conservative Party could lose MPs to the Brexit Party.

    I'd also note that a Brecon & Radnor by-election would likely result in the Conservative + DUP notional majority dropping to 1.

    ** Also worth noting that the DUP, while not keen on the backstop, also doesn't like No Deal Brexit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,217

    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    A poser's word for guarantee.

    Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,059
    TGOHF said:

    can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    How?

    BoZo crash out no deal instant hard border doesn't sound much like a winner
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    I don't think Arlene would back someone who took the UK out the EU without an agreement. In fact, the DUP has been pretty explicit about preferring Remain to No Deal.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    But until a VONC is called and lost there is no proof that a new PM doesn’t command the confidence of the house when the tories and DUP still hold the majority
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,338

    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    Maybe Ken Clarke will be the next PM after all!
    Oh yes please. He'd be my single biggest winner on that market.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    rcs1000 said:

    I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the Conservative Party (of which I am still a member) has become so ill with the madness known as Brexit that it has become totally deluded. They are behaving as though they can change leader and that leader will automatically become PM as though they have a substantial majority. They do not. they are a minority government FFS. I am amazed it has taken this long to dawn on them. If Johnson becomes leader, or maybe even super-lightweight-Raab it is highly likely there will be whip resignations. They will not be able to command a majority. Johnson might as well withdraw, again!

    That cuts both ways, though*.

    If Rory Stewart were to become PM, then it's possible the Conservative Party could lose MPs to the Brexit Party.

    I'd also note that a Brecon & Radnor by-election would likely result in the Conservative + DUP notional majority dropping to 1.

    ** Also worth noting that the DUP, while not keen on the backstop, also doesn't like No Deal Brexit.
    That is true, tho Rory is certainly less hated than Boris in the PCP, but either way the party has been very stupid to have a change of leader when it doesn't have a majority
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    edited June 6

    Fenster said:

    Lost me at automaticity.

    A poser's word for guarantee.

    Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
    No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.


    The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:

    We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.

    Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1441
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,059
    kjohnw said:

    the tories and DUP still hold the majority

    The DUP deal is over
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,059

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    They can absolutely do that, but it's not clear how that gets them closer to Brexit...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    Maybe Ken Clarke will be the next PM after all!
    Oh yes please. He'd be my single biggest winner on that market.
    Please tell me you didn't get more than 309/1?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    How?

    BoZo crash out no deal instant hard border doesn't sound much like a winner
    You think Boris and Arlene won’t have a chat if he wins ?

    Wibble.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    kjohnw said:

    the tories and DUP still hold the majority

    The DUP deal is over
    Have they announced that ?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    Yes but in Schrodinger's Parliament, we won't know if the new PM commands the confidence of the House until there is a vote, and there cannot be a vote before there is a new government.

    Jeremy Corbyn could, and perhaps should just for fun, call a confidence vote in the current government, which Theresa May could conceivably lose. What he can't do is call a confidence vote on the Boris/Gove/Hunt-led government until there is one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    Parliament does not, of course, have to be in session for the mantle of PM to change. If Mrs May went to the Palace and announced her resignation, the question would be "does anyone else have the confidence of the House?"

    If she said, "Yes, that Boris does," then he would become PM until the House reconvened.

    But what if it is obvious Boris did not have the confidence of the House? I don't think Mrs May could - with honesty - tell the Monarch that he did. So, the loss of B&R wouldn't be enough. But if the DUP or a meaningful number of Tory MPs jumped ship (I think it would need to be 3-5), then I don't think it would be possible to fudge the issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001

    Scott_P said:

    Now maybe in a week or so Jeremy Corbyn calls a confidence vote and the new government will fall, but that is not the same as saying it could not have been formed in the first place.

    It really is.

    The Queen can't appoint at PM someone who does not command the confidence of the House.
    Maybe Ken Clarke will be the next PM after all!
    Oh yes please. He'd be my single biggest winner on that market.
    I've just backed Nigel Farage in the PM market to take him up to the same green as Boris.
    The main takeaway though is that the next PM should really, really (except for a select few) be played as a laying game right now.
    Who knows if it'll be Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin, David Lidington, Ken Clarke, Farage or Corbyn after an election. "Someone else" is something to have generally backed in this market.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    kjohnw said:

    the tories and DUP still hold the majority

    The DUP deal is over
    Their deal with May is over.

    Hence she’s off.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 39,243
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    kjohnw said:

    the tories and DUP still hold the majority

    The DUP deal is over
    Their deal with May is over.

    Hence she’s off.
    I thought they signed it with someone else?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Absolutely. And this is the problem the Conservative Party has.

    If a closet Remainer were to get the job, then the government would likely lose at least a few of the Spartans to the Brexit Party.

    If a No Dealer were to get the job then Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve and the DUP would likely go.

    The path down the middle is Gove shaped. (Or possibly Boris Johnson shaped.)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,338


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    They can and they might. Though in a Remain-dominated House of Commons, a majority could probably be more easily constructed around an anti-crash out Brexit position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,019
    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Not if they want to be candidates in the inevitable GE. And even if they didn't....

    I think that May has delusions that she has a role above politics (surely better than in politics at which she proved totally inept). She doesn't. She is currently PM because she is leader of the Conservative party. As soon as she is not she packs her bags and leaves. Whether the next leader can make a fist of it or not is not her concern.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
    “It will happen”

    Interested in a bet on that ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Ultimate limit of human endurance found

    The ultimate limit of human endurance has been worked out by scientists analysing the 2017 GE, the Brexit debate and other political events.

    They showed the cap was 2.5 times the body's resting bullshit rate, or 20 political speeches a day for an average person.

    Anything higher than that was not sustainable in the long term.

    The research, by Duke University, also showed political journalists were endurance specialists, living at nearly the limit of what the human mind can cope with.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48527798
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    If I were Justine Greening, I would reckon that my chances of holding Putney would be higher as a non-Conservative in a No Deal scenario. And then there are the Conservative MPs who've been No Confidenced - they're unlikely to show much loyalty given they're likely out of a job at the next election anyway.

    Ahhhh... the difficulties of no majority.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 686
    I'm confused by all this, as the UK constitution is basically a series of winks, nudges and handshakes.

    May resigns as leader but stays as PM. Fine so far. For the sake of argument, Bojo gets elected Con leader, also fine. Now, at what point does May "know" Bojo will command the commons? Would she have an indicative vote? Or would it depend on her understanding the feelings of her colleagues in the house (lol)

    Also, at what point does the commons basically usurp the crown's appointment of the PM? I understand the crown doesn't want to be in the position of potentially making a political decision that ultimately fails, opening itself up for criticism it is partisan and / or fallible, but how can the commons say that a PM is unacceptable before they are PM?

    Surely if the next leader of the Cons cannot be PM or form a government, the crown SHOULD call on someone who could, and if that person doesn't exist, disband parliament and call an election? Is that not the crowns job in these circumstances? And how does that butt up against the FTPA?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    edited June 6
    Guido on the ambiguity over when Theresa May stops being leader of the Conservative Party.
    https://order-order.com/2019/06/06/punters-demand-stewards-inquiry-mays-resignation-date-bets/

    Guido gets it wrong, I think, or rather events have moved on. It may well be, as he suggests, that Betfair mixed up the Leader and Prime Minister. But the 1922 yesterday multiplied the confusion by saying that when Theresa May resigns as leader, she will immediately become acting leader, thus moving us into angels on the head of a pin territory.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 686
    GIN1138 said:

    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D

    It sounds atm like parliament want to move the fight to before the summer recess, though?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,780


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    They can and they might. Though in a Remain-dominated House of Commons, a majority could probably be more easily constructed around an anti-crash out Brexit position.
    Jeremy Corbyn says hello.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
    “It will happen”

    Interested in a bet on that ?
    Well in spite of my long running following of this site, I have to confess I don't bet! I don't disapprove of others doing so, but it is a family thing not to do so.

    Very happy for you to rib me mercilessly if I have got it wrong and I might even promise a forfeit such as writing "I was wrong, Boris is PM and it is even better than Brexit, and Brexit is the best thing that has ever happened" on this site 20 times over a period of 20 days. Alternatively you could offer to write "Brexit is a pile of shit and is damaging the economy" though that wouldn't require you to lie, and by that point you might even agree with the statement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    They can and they might. Though in a Remain-dominated House of Commons, a majority could probably be more easily constructed around an anti-crash out Brexit position.
    That's also true.

    It's possible that AN Other, a moderate xxx MP, puts together a temporary Government of National Unity to negotiate a two year extension (sorry HYUFD) ahead of proper elections.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    Guido on the ambiguity over when Theresa May stops being leader of the Conservative Party.
    https://order-order.com/2019/06/06/punters-demand-stewards-inquiry-mays-resignation-date-bets/

    Guido gets it wrong, I think, or rather events have moved on. It may well be, as he suggests, that Betfair mixed up the Leader and Prime Minister. But the 1922 yesterday multiplied the confusion by saying that when Theresa May resigns as leader, she will immediately become acting leader, thus moving us into angels on the head of a pin territory.

    No the 1922 have eliminated the confusion IMO.

    The terms are simply "when does Theresa May cease to be Leader". That will be July.

    Is transitioning from "Permanent Leader" to "Acting Leader" ceasing to be leader? No. The clue is in the word leader being in both titles. The market was not when someone ceases to be permanent leader but when they cease to be leader . . . and if they're acting leader then they are still leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001
    tlg86 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    They can and they might. Though in a Remain-dominated House of Commons, a majority could probably be more easily constructed around an anti-crash out Brexit position.
    Jeremy Corbyn says hello.
    Yes, certainly one to keep a green number next to in the next PM market amongst others.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    edited June 6
    148grss said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D

    It sounds atm like parliament want to move the fight to before the summer recess, though?
    The timetable of when the next Con leader is elected is purely down to the 1922.

    They could string out the membership ballot until early August and that would definitely be after the start of recess)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    The House might, however, support a caretaker PM in order to pass legislation avoiding no deal, prior to any election. Unlikely, certainly, but not impossible (and Bercow would accommodate any necessary procedural manoeuvrings).
    And as has been pointed out, an election is not guaranteed to resolve the current impasse.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Peterborough: Labour's price is slowly falling and is now 7/2-ish.

    Wishful thinking, profit-taking or reports from the ground?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,104
    edited June 6
    I presume the Number 10 position has been agreed with the likely winners or at least the party board/1922, to ensure the Tories keep hold of the reins. I'm not sure it's TM hanging on for dear life.

    I actually think a new leader could get through an immediate confidence vote as long as they don't explicitly commit to No Deal at this stage. Even "let's see what turns up and leave on Oct 31 if not" would probably keep a sufficient number of the current can-kicking Commoners on-side.

    EDIT TO ADD: To be clear, I think that could very quickly change after the summer when the new HMG pivots to "sorry.. nothing turned up, so we're pulling up the drawbridge".
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    The House might, however, support a caretaker PM in order to pass legislation avoiding no deal, prior to any election. Unlikely, certainly, but not impossible (and Bercow would accommodate any necessary procedural manoeuvrings).
    And as has been pointed out, an election is not guaranteed to resolve the current impasse.
    Ken Clarke?!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,019
    Has anyone any idea when Peterborough might declare tonight? This seems to me a more than usually interesting by election at this juncture. It really ought to be an easy Labour hold. They won it at the last election, the government has collapsed into complete chaos, we are at mid term, etc etc.

    If TBP win the seat from nowhere Labour are going to start wondering whether the daily demands for another GE are a plan worthy of Baldrick (who isn't even a party member anymore). The temptation to find a way to move on from Brexit (despite it destroying the Tories more comprehensively than Blair ever managed) will be strong. If some sort of consensus suddenly appeared then the next Tory leader will be PM, at least for long enough to get this through.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,463

    Peterborough: Labour's price is slowly falling and is now 7/2-ish.

    Wishful thinking, profit-taking or reports from the ground?

    If I'd bet on Brexit party earlier, I would certainly have been profit-taking once they got to 1.1/1.2...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    148grss said:

    I'm confused by all this, as the UK constitution is basically a series of winks, nudges and handshakes.

    May resigns as leader but stays as PM. Fine so far. For the sake of argument, Bojo gets elected Con leader, also fine. Now, at what point does May "know" Bojo will command the commons? Would she have an indicative vote? Or would it depend on her understanding the feelings of her colleagues in the house (lol)

    Also, at what point does the commons basically usurp the crown's appointment of the PM? I understand the crown doesn't want to be in the position of potentially making a political decision that ultimately fails, opening itself up for criticism it is partisan and / or fallible, but how can the commons say that a PM is unacceptable before they are PM?

    Surely if the next leader of the Cons cannot be PM or form a government, the crown SHOULD call on someone who could, and if that person doesn't exist, disband parliament and call an election? Is that not the crowns job in these circumstances? And how does that butt up against the FTPA?

    Let's say that Mrs May resigns the Premiership following a BoJo win. At this point, four Conservative MPs resign the whip, and say they cannot support a BoJo led government.

    Boris turns up at the Palace.

    "Do you have the support of the House?"
    "Ahhh... Ummm... Probably"
    "I'm sorry, do you have commitments from 323-odd MPs?"
    "Ummm... not yet..."
    "I need to give someone else a chance to get to the magic number."

    (Some time later)

    "Jeremy, whatssup?"
    "No Ma'am, I don't have the Confidence of the House."
    "Does anyone else?"
    "My traitorous deputy claims to..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001
    Tories out to 230/490 in Peterborough !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    Well yes of course it's perfectly possible an October election leads to a similar or even worse situation than we're currently in.

    Or someone might win a majority and the country gets a clear direction for the first time in three years.

    Those are always the risks with an election.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 956
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Maybe Bercow could initiate indicative votes on potential PMs that might command a majority across the house. Ken Clarke perhaps?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001

    Maybe Bercow could initiate indicative votes on potential PMs that might command a majority across the house. Ken Clarke perhaps?

    There's a Lord Bridges of Headley in the next PM market. Any idea who he is ?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,084
    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    In recent years, this has usually been the case. We have a broken electoral system.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,104
    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    I'd expect to see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns (and possibly tactical alliances between parties) at the next election. The vagaries of FPTP will be explained at every opportunity by arch-Remainers and Leavers, with their own tips on achieving maximum seats and votes in the new HoC.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 497
    If anyone's interested in the Government Equalities Office's views on the Anderton Park protest, they emailed me back about it just now..

    Thank you for your email of 22 May. I am replying on behalf of the Minister for Women and Equalities.

    Britain is a modern, multi-cultural society, built on the foundations of inclusion, diversity and respect for others. Schools play a key part in this, and we believe that learning to live together is at the heart of education.

    Officials from the Department for Education are working closely with schools in Birmingham and with partners across the country where parents have raised concerns. The Minister for Women and Equalities has been clear that she supports the statutory guidance on relationships education in primary schools and relationships and sex education in secondary schools, which expects that LGBT specific content, when taught, is fully integrated in schools’ programme of study for this area of the curriculum.

    The Minister believes that teaching children about the diverse society that we live in and the different types of loving, healthy relationships that exist can be done in a way that respects everyone’s views. We want to build a country where LGBT people feel welcomed and safe at school, college, university and beyond, so that they can reach their full potential.

    I hope this information is helpful

    Yours sincerely,

    Government Equalities Office
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    The House might, however, support a caretaker PM in order to pass legislation avoiding no deal, prior to any election. Unlikely, certainly, but not impossible (and Bercow would accommodate any necessary procedural manoeuvrings).
    And as has been pointed out, an election is not guaranteed to resolve the current impasse.
    Ken Clarke?!!
    At least one could be confident he'd stick to an any agreement, so yes.
    Who else is sufficiently respected across the House ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001
    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    Plenty of those stronghold seats are near the western end of the M62 corridor, ex coalfields and North east where the Brexit party are gathering strength ex-big cities and others in London which could turn to the Lib Dems though. If Labour really shit the bed and get say 16% their 180 odd "invincible" seats might just flip. Odds against but who knows.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,780

    If anyone's interested in the Government Equalities Office's views on the Anderton Park protest, they emailed me back about it just now..

    Thank you for your email of 22 May. I am replying on behalf of the Minister for Women and Equalities.

    Britain is a modern, multi-cultural society, built on the foundations of inclusion, diversity and respect for others. Schools play a key part in this, and we believe that learning to live together is at the heart of education.

    Officials from the Department for Education are working closely with schools in Birmingham and with partners across the country where parents have raised concerns. The Minister for Women and Equalities has been clear that she supports the statutory guidance on relationships education in primary schools and relationships and sex education in secondary schools, which expects that LGBT specific content, when taught, is fully integrated in schools’ programme of study for this area of the curriculum.

    The Minister believes that teaching children about the diverse society that we live in and the different types of loving, healthy relationships that exist can be done in a way that respects everyone’s views. We want to build a country where LGBT people feel welcomed and safe at school, college, university and beyond, so that they can reach their full potential.

    I hope this information is helpful

    Yours sincerely,

    Government Equalities Office
    BiB - Head in the sand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    edited June 6

    If anyone's interested in the Government Equalities Office's views on the Anderton Park protest, they emailed me back about it just now..

    Thank you for your email of 22 May. I am replying on behalf of the Minister for Women and Equalities.

    Britain is a modern, multi-cultural society, built on the foundations of inclusion, diversity and respect for others. Schools play a key part in this, and we believe that learning to live together is at the heart of education.

    Officials from the Department for Education are working closely with schools in Birmingham and with partners across the country where parents have raised concerns. The Minister for Women and Equalities has been clear that she supports the statutory guidance on relationships education in primary schools and relationships and sex education in secondary schools, which expects that LGBT specific content, when taught, is fully integrated in schools’ programme of study for this area of the curriculum.

    The Minister believes that teaching children about the diverse society that we live in and the different types of loving, healthy relationships that exist can be done in a way that respects everyone’s views. We want to build a country where LGBT people feel welcomed and safe at school, college, university and beyond, so that they can reach their full potential.

    I hope this information is helpful

    Yours sincerely,

    Government Equalities Office
    "The Minister for Women and Equalities has been clear..."; the Secretary of State for Education less so.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 956
    PClipp said:

    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    In recent years, this has usually been the case. We have a broken electoral system.
    I'm not sure we have. Tory and Labour votes have been greater than Lib Dem, Green, UKIP etc. FPTP has acted as a magnifier. The closest we got to this recently was the Alliance and Labour, where the shares were something like 28% vs 26%, and the seats were 200 vs 20

    I think there was an election in the 50s where one party got more votes but fewer seats.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 956

    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    I'd expect to see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns (and possibly tactical alliances between parties) at the next election. The vagaries of FPTP will be explained at every opportunity by arch-Remainers and Leavers, with their own tips on achieving maximum seats and votes in the new HoC.
    You have more fatih in the interest and nouse of the electorate than I do!
This discussion has been closed.