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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was exactly two years ago that Brexit, if it happens, inexorably changed

Video: The moment the 2017 exit poll was announced

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,306
    first
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    edited June 8
    First like Boris.

    EDIT: Or not. An omen for Boris?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,375
    Just imagine where we will be in two years time.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 8,306

    First like Boris.

    That's Boris sunk then ;-)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    Fourth like the Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    Interestingly translating the recent YouGov poll figures on a Boris led Tory Party v Labour and the LDs into Electoral Calculus it shows the changing nature of the Tory coalition.

    A Boris led Tory Party would gain Ashfield, Barrow, Battersea, Bishop Auckland, Bolsover, Canterbury, Derby North, Don Valley, Kensington, Lincoln, Plymouth Sutton and Devenport, Stoke on Trent Central and North, Wakefield, Wolverhampton North East and South West from Labour but would lose Cheltenham, Devon North, Hazel Grove, Lewes, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Wells and Winchester to the LDs.

    So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.

    https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=29&LAB=22&LIB=22&Brexit=13&Green=7&ChUK=1&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=15&SCOTLIB=16&SCOTBrexit=5&SCOTGreen=8&SCOTChUK=1&SCOTUKIP=0&SCOTNAT=35&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    At the moment Brexit is a bigger threat to the Tories because of the Brexit Party but a Boris led Tory Party will reduce that threat through his commitment to leave the EU by the next general election Deal or No Deal.

    However Labour have the problem that the more Corbyn holds out against EUref2 the greater he risks losing more Remainers to the LDs or Greens
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    On topic May completely screwed up the election and she definitely should have gone in 2017.

    However when we look back in hindsight another group who may regret their decisions in hindsight is the so-called "moderate" Tories who wanted to originally elect and then to keep May to prevent someone like Boris winning. They may have just delayed him doing so and in so doing they have triggered the rise of the Brexit Party and ensured the Tories now need to fight on that flank.

    We could now actually end up with a harder Brexit that we would have had Boris won in 2016, or May been ousted in 2017, or at the VONC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,086
    FPT, I have such a delightful story about Liz Truss, but the laws relating to defamation make it impossible for me to repeat it here.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    David Gauke is the latest Tory MP to face a motion of no confidence:

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    HYUFD said:

    So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.

    I find those figures implausible. Which means any output from those figures is also implausible. Tories won't beat Labour by 5% with the C2DEs no matter what any poll says.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 597
    Jonathan said:

    Just imagine where we will be in two years time.

    We’ll be right where we are now. A set of islands a few miles off the continent of Europe. In other news, we won’t be floating in the mid-Atlantic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    On topic May completely screwed up the election and she definitely should have gone in 2017.

    However when we look back in hindsight another group who may regret their decisions in hindsight is the so-called "moderate" Tories who wanted to originally elect and then to keep May to prevent someone like Boris winning. They may have just delayed him doing so and in so doing they have triggered the rise of the Brexit Party and ensured the Tories now need to fight on that flank.

    We could now actually end up with a harder Brexit that we would have had Boris won in 2016, or May been ousted in 2017, or at the VONC.

    I am not so sure, May negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement and the compromises, Boris may not have been able to do so.

    After May has done the hard work and taken the flack and tried to keep the DUP on board I think Boris could just shaft the DUP and keep the backstop for NI (giving a vague promise to replace it with a technical solution) and then scrap the temporary customs union for GB and then go to the country to get a mandate for the Withdrawal Agreement on that basis. Boris is not a diehard No Dealer like Baker or McVey or it seems increasingly Raab
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    AndyJS said:

    David Gauke is the latest Tory MP to face a motion of no confidence:

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/

    At the least he should be sacked from the Cabinet by whoever wins the leadership contest.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847
    The Tories' very future, and indeed that of the entire nation, rests with Boris. If he can dupe the ERG to go with his 'amended' version of Theresa's Deal - which is surely his plan as well as the only vaguely non-destructive course of action - then we might survive this. Otherwise it's curtains I'm afraid.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018
    edited June 8
    FPT: on Boris and scandal.

    I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.

    They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?

    Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.

    There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847
    AndyJS said:

    David Gauke is the latest Tory MP to face a motion of no confidence:

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/

    All seems a bit like remembering to cancel the milk the day before a nuclear war. I doubt they'll be much of a Tory party left when all this has played out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    edited June 8
    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all three of them. We could get the same old situation of some MPs being more concerned with, say, stopping Raab getting into the last two than in which of the other ones do go through with Johnson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8
    Sandpit said:

    FPT: on Boris and scandal.

    I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.

    They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?

    Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.

    There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party

    As I said before it will make no difference even if such allegations come out, Boris is Teflon like Trump, Bill Clinton and Berlusconi and has the charisma to brush it off. Bill Clinton and Trump are both reported to have had mistresses have abortions, Trump indeed had sexual assault allegations, all of them were often engaged with shady characters, it did not stop them winning elections
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847
    AndyJS said:

    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all 3 of them.

    Surely Raab-id, with his prorogue-parliament wheeze, which must horrified even elements of the Tory membership, is a dead duck.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,557

    On topic May completely screwed up the election and she definitely should have gone in 2017.

    However when we look back in hindsight another group who may regret their decisions in hindsight is the so-called "moderate" Tories who wanted to originally elect and then to keep May to prevent someone like Boris winning. They may have just delayed him doing so and in so doing they have triggered the rise of the Brexit Party and ensured the Tories now need to fight on that flank.

    We could now actually end up with a harder Brexit that we would have had Boris won in 2016, or May been ousted in 2017, or at the VONC.

    I think you are forgetting the details. May wasn't the choice of the moderate Tories. She got the job by default when the leaver challengers fell out or bottled out.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 3,068
    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    The Tories' very future, and indeed that of the entire nation, rests with Boris. If he can dupe the ERG to go with his 'amended' version of Theresa's Deal - which is surely his plan as well as the only vaguely non-destructive course of action - then we might survive this. Otherwise it's curtains I'm afraid.

    I agree with you that is his plan, hence some diehard ERGers are now shifting to Raab or McVey or Baker as they do not trust Boris to deliver WTO terms Brexit
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: on Boris and scandal.

    I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.

    They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?

    Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.

    There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party

    As I said before it will make no difference even if such allegations come out, Boris is Teflon like Trump, Bill Clinton and Berlusconi and has the charisma to brush it off. Bill Clinton and Trump are both reported to have had mistresses have abortions, Trump indeed had sexual assault allegations, all of them were often engaged with shady characters, it did not stop them winning elections
    Quite right. They adore his naughty-boy persona and will forgive him anything. To (possibly) paraphrase Nixon: when the membership looks as Boris they see who they want to be; when they looked at Theresa they saw who they were.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    1. There is no certainty a Land Value Tax would result in higher rents. Seems implausible? Well remember 3G licenses. At the time, a lot of articles were written suggesting that countries where operators paid many billions for 3G licenses would end up with higher phone bills. By contrast, it was suggested that in those countries where licenses were given away, bills would be lower. It didn't happen. There was no correlation. Why? Because what an operator had paid for a license had no impact on supply and demand. And prices are set by supply and demand.

    2. The best way to lower prices for young people is to ensure that the market is efficient. Things that discourage people trading down result in low market efficiency, because they result in people living in houses that are too big for them. So, high rates of stamp duty mean that a couple who've children have left home will be unlikely to move to a smaller house, because doing so has high costs. At the very least, have an exemption for people trading down.

    3. There are too few council tax bands, especially at the top end. This also discourages trading down. You should be able to save money in terms of council tax by going from a large house to a smaller one, or to an apartment.

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    5. Remember the mantra: things that improve the efficiency of the market (i.e. encourage better utilisation) are good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, I have such a delightful story about Liz Truss, but the laws relating to defamation make it impossible for me to repeat it here.

    Perhaps the reason she did not run
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    By suggesting "suspending parliament", Raab is pretty guaranteeing he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons. There are a lot of Conservative MPs who might not a Crash Out Brexit, but would accept it. But would not be willing to be part of using machinations to achieve it against the will of parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049

    HYUFD said:

    So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.

    I find those figures implausible. Which means any output from those figures is also implausible. Tories won't beat Labour by 5% with the C2DEs no matter what any poll says.
    They will as the Brexit Party is still on 18% with C2DEs even with a Boris led Tory Party, polling best in the Midlands, Wales and the North ie former Labour heartland areas
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, I have such a delightful story about Liz Truss, but the laws relating to defamation make it impossible for me to repeat it here.

    Perhaps the reason she did not run
    That. Is. A. Dis. Grace.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.

    I find those figures implausible. Which means any output from those figures is also implausible. Tories won't beat Labour by 5% with the C2DEs no matter what any poll says.
    They will as the Brexit Party is still on 18% with C2DEs even with a Boris led Tory Party, polling best in the Midlands, Wales and the North ie former Labour heartland areas
    Midterm polls and general elections aren't the same thing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336


    Kind of the death cult to maximise the chances that the next Conservative leader will not be Prime Minister.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    AndyJS said:

    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all 3 of them.

    Raab is hard to judge for me. I can't understand why, as a failed Brexit minister who lasted about 10 minutes (well, four months) in the Cabinet, he was ever popular, or why he suddenly went for a walk. So I'm wary of writing him off because I cannot see, let alone analyse, why he has so many backers. It is different from thinking he'd be a bad choice; I cannot see why he'd be a choice.

    My book is green on Gove and Hunt. I'm not desperate to get in much deeper until we've seen the final field, then the hustings and first round. There might also be something in the Sunday papers depending how cynical you are about Gove's cocaine use 20 years back.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029
    edited June 8
    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    These are the people whose radicalisation began alongside Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.

    image

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163

    AndyJS said:

    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all 3 of them.

    Surely Raab-id, with his prorogue-parliament wheeze, which must horrified even elements of the Tory membership, is a dead duck.
    Hope so. He is not fit to be an MP, never mind a minister. Disgrace.

    I also have no idea why he is so regarded. What has he achieved? What are his qualities. I have seen nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: on Boris and scandal.

    I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.

    They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?

    Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.

    There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party

    As I said before it will make no difference even if such allegations come out, Boris is Teflon like Trump, Bill Clinton and Berlusconi and has the charisma to brush it off. Bill Clinton and Trump are both reported to have had mistresses have abortions, Trump indeed had sexual assault allegations, all of them were often engaged with shady characters, it did not stop them winning elections
    Quite right. They adore his naughty-boy persona and will forgive him anything. To (possibly) paraphrase Nixon: when the membership looks as Boris they see who they want to be; when they looked at Theresa they saw who they were.
    Indeed, I believe that quote comes from the film Nixon when he compares how the voters see him to how they saw JFK
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Who's he? (Looks a bit wet behind the ears quite frankly.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    edited June 8
    Good evening, everyone.

    Turns out politicians voting for things they didn't want, promising things they don't mean, and refusing to back any option at all isn't a recipe for wonderfulness. Whoever would've guessed it?

    Edited extra bit: and now I regret not backing Leclerc.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,847
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT: on Boris and scandal.

    I think that everyone knows his wife didn’t trust him to keep his pants up, but I’m not sure that many people know many of the other, more serious, stories that are already out there.

    They are about to get that education. How many members know of his alleged involvement in a contract beating, of one mistress forced to have an abortion and another he tried to gag in court from speaking out about their child?

    Also, I think that while most people are okay with students doing silly things, they don’t extend that same ambivalence to the same things done in your forties. He has also denied taking drugs in the past, and I still reckon there’s a big story coming up.

    There’s lots of people he’s crossed over the years who don’t want him to become leader of the Conservative party

    As I said before it will make no difference even if such allegations come out, Boris is Teflon like Trump, Bill Clinton and Berlusconi and has the charisma to brush it off. Bill Clinton and Trump are both reported to have had mistresses have abortions, Trump indeed had sexual assault allegations, all of them were often engaged with shady characters, it did not stop them winning elections
    Quite right. They adore his naughty-boy persona and will forgive him anything. To (possibly) paraphrase Nixon: when the membership looks as Boris they see who they want to be; when they looked at Theresa they saw who they were.
    Indeed, I believe that quote comes from the film Nixon when he compares how the voters see him to how they saw JFK
    Yes. I don't know if Nixon ever actually said it. Shame if he didn't because it's a great line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So a Boris led Tories does disproportionally better in C2 areas than AB areas and indeed a Boris led Tories would only lead the LDs by 1%, 28% to 27% with ABC1s but would lead Labour by 5%, 29% to 24% with C2DEs.

    I find those figures implausible. Which means any output from those figures is also implausible. Tories won't beat Labour by 5% with the C2DEs no matter what any poll says.
    They will as the Brexit Party is still on 18% with C2DEs even with a Boris led Tory Party, polling best in the Midlands, Wales and the North ie former Labour heartland areas
    Midterm polls and general elections aren't the same thing.
    I think the Brexit Party is picking up where UKIP did before 2015, the 13% they are on in a poll with a Boris led Tories closely matches the 12% they got in 2015 and indeed then the high UKIP share in a few seats like Vale of Clwyd helped the Tories gain them from Labour
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    AndyJS said:

    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all three of them. We could get the same old situation of some MPs being more concerned with, say, stopping Raab getting into the last two than in which of the other ones do go through with Johnson.

    It can't be Raab. His prorogue Parliament wheeze has guaranteed that but even if it hadn't the electoral system and Boris doing well ensure's he can't make it.

    Even if Raab comes second in the first round or later, once it gets down to final 3 he will be eliminated then as he isn't transfer-friendly.

    If the final three is Boris, Raab, Gove with Hunt eliminated 4th then who will Hunt's MPs back? Similarly if it is Boris, Raab, Hunt with Gove eliminated 4th?

    Unless all of Hunt/Gove's backers switch to Boris (unlikely), Raab won't pick up transfers and will be eliminated then.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Streeter said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just imagine where we will be in two years time.

    We’ll be right where we are now. A set of islands a few miles off the continent of Europe. In other news, we won’t be floating in the mid-Atlantic.
    That is an important fact often forgotten. International trade happens mostly between countries that are near each other. After Brexit, that will still be Europe; it will still be the EU.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163

    AndyJS said:

    David Gauke is the latest Tory MP to face a motion of no confidence:

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/

    All seems a bit like remembering to cancel the milk the day before a nuclear war. I doubt they'll be much of a Tory party left when all this has played out.
    The membership has gone mad, probably partly because it has been infiltrated by Blue Momentum.

    Voting to Leave with a Deal now seen as being a traitor by these ageing loons.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,093

    AndyJS said:

    It looks like Boris Johnson won't have a problem getting into the final two, so it's all about which of Gove, Hunt and Raab get the second position. It could be very close between all 3 of them.

    Raab is hard to judge for me. I can't understand why, as a failed Brexit minister who lasted about 10 minutes (well, four months) in the Cabinet, he was ever popular, or why he suddenly went for a walk. So I'm wary of writing him off because I cannot see, let alone analyse, why he has so many backers. It is different from thinking he'd be a bad choice; I cannot see why he'd be a choice.

    My book is green on Gove and Hunt. I'm not desperate to get in much deeper until we've seen the final field, then the hustings and first round. There might also be something in the Sunday papers depending how cynical you are about Gove's cocaine use 20 years back.
    He strikes me as bright but intellectually and emotionally underdeveloped. I could well imagine that his time as Linklaters was characterised by him behaving like a stereotypical trainee partner (FAOD, not a compliment).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    AndyJS said:

    David Gauke is the latest Tory MP to face a motion of no confidence:

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/08/gauke-no-confidence-notice-sent/

    All seems a bit like remembering to cancel the milk the day before a nuclear war. I doubt they'll be much of a Tory party left when all this has played out.
    The membership has gone mad, probably partly because it has been infiltrated by Blue Momentum.

    Voting to Leave with a Deal now seen as being a traitor by these ageing loons.

    It was a terrible deal and Gauke was one of the Cabinet ministers repeatedly threatening to walk if we attempted to renegotiate it or leave without one.

    Which is why he shouldn't be in the next Cabinet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    edited June 8
    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    Streeter said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just imagine where we will be in two years time.

    We’ll be right where we are now. A set of islands a few miles off the continent of Europe. In other news, we won’t be floating in the mid-Atlantic.
    That is an important fact often forgotten. International trade happens mostly between countries that are near each other. After Brexit, that will still be Europe; it will still be the EU.

    That used to be true, this is now the 21st century and its no longer true. Trade is global and most of our trade by value is NOT with the EU.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163



    Kind of the death cult to maximise the chances that the next Conservative leader will not be Prime Minister.

    Cult members often aren't the brightest. I mean look at ERG.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Unless MPs are lying, Boris looks guaranteed for Top 2. McVey and Raab will be eliminated and have 30 that will presumably transfer to him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.
    The way to resolve this is simple. Get on with delivering what the voters went for in 2016 and then move on. May negotiated a very soft Brexit yet MPs across the House who supposedly oppose No Deal rejected it. They will likely get a harder Brexit now as a result.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163
    How long before these whackos in Con membership are demanding that Calais be returned to English hands is part of a proper No Deal Brexit?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336
    Off topic but Dan Snow’s documentary on D Day on BBC2 has some fantastic interviews with old soldiers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001
    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Who was endorsement 200 ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,215
    edited June 8

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Who's he? (Looks a bit wet behind the ears quite frankly.)
    Apparently an 'insignificant little spunkbubble' if you read further down the thread.

    'BeLeave was set up as a "youth-focused pro-Brexit campaign" by Darren Grimes, at the time a 22-year-old fashion student and part-time shop worker. Grimes worked out of Vote Leave's office and was invited to appear on several TV and radio programmes arguing for Britain to leave the EU. When Vote Leave was close to its £7m spending limit, Vote Leave emailed Grimes with offers of financial help, to which Grimes replied asking that the money be spent on Facebook ads to be placed by AggregateIQ. Vote leave sent £675,000 in this way to AggregateIQ, without the money ever passing into the hands of Grimes or BeLeave. BeLeave had no significant income or expenditure apart from this'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

    Given the current Commons will likely block No Deal by any means possible and given the hung Parliament the only way we get to a No Deal Brexit is with a Boris or Raab majority after a general election in all likelihood anyway (though I think Boris still wants a Deal ultimately and will try and get one, perhaps through shafting the DUP on the NI backstop in return for the EU abandoning the temporary GB Customs Union)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 24,478
    FPT
    MaxPB said:

    » show previous quotes
    1. You've just created a massive disincentive for older people to sell up and downsize, exacerbating the housing crisis foe younger families.
    2. We've just managed to get rid out state ownership of banks, it didn't go well.
    3. You've just pushed more people into tax planning, causing a reduction in actual tax take.
    4. Who pays for all of the additional pupils who's parents now decide that can't or won't send their kids to private school?

    As always with the left, policies that sounds good but will wreck the economy (and in this case the education sector).

    Only a moronic cretin would think any of that crap is aspirational and going to help anyone. Commies really are as thick as they make out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001
    A guess on a few likely votes

    Priti Patel's twitter timeline is full of pro-Boris stuff

    Lee Rowley, Mark Spencer and Ben Bradley have been out with Esther Mcvey at blue collar Tory events.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

  • eekeek Posts: 5,795

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

    I'm not taking that bet but will happily join in on your side of it. As I've continually stated Brexit will destroy the Conservative Party the only question is one of when (where the how determines when when is)..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    200 Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. 113 to go.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    Johnson 52, Gove 33, Hunt 33, Raab 24, Javid 17, Hancock 13,
    Harper 7, McVey 6, Stewart 6, Leadsom 5, Gyimah 4.

    Who was endorsement 200 ?
    William Wragg for Mark Harper. Guido had it down a few days ago based on some private information he had.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    Pulpstar said:



    Lee Rowley, Mark Spencer and Ben Bradley have been out with Esther Mcvey at blue collar Tory events.

    Are they part of the #AveIt4Esther campaign? :D
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,260

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Unfortunately I think you are right. Boris needs to be forced to go cap in hand to the EU, as May has done. Only then will reality begin to intrude into Brexit fairyland.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

    Given the current Commons will likely block No Deal by any means possible and given the hung Parliament the only way we get to a No Deal Brexit is with a Boris or Raab majority after a general election in all likelihood anyway (though I think Boris still wants a Deal ultimately and will try and get one, perhaps through shafting the DUP on the NI backstop in return for the EU abandoning the temporary GB Customs Union)

    And how do you get to a general election?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    edited June 8
    F1: trying to work out if Bottas, each way, at 6 is worth it for fastest qualifier. Tricky.

    Edited extra bit: decided against it. Ramble up soon.
  • Hearing politicians now tell us that Brexit is really complicated and they’d like to check with us that we still want to leave - it annoys me for two reasons. Firstly we are a representative democracy and they are dodging their responsibility because they’re frightened we won’t like what they choose. Secondly it is now clear that we are much more enmeshed with the EU than those politicians ever admitted. They shared our sovereignty without asking us properly and - for that alone - all the major parties deserve to be spanked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

    Given the current Commons will likely block No Deal by any means possible and given the hung Parliament the only way we get to a No Deal Brexit is with a Boris or Raab majority after a general election in all likelihood anyway (though I think Boris still wants a Deal ultimately and will try and get one, perhaps through shafting the DUP on the NI backstop in return for the EU abandoning the temporary GB Customs Union)

    And how do you get to a general election?

    The Tory PM calls one and Labour also votes for one given Corbyn is constantly bleating how much he wants a general election Boris may well grant him his wish to get a mandate for the Brexit he wants to deliver and avoid reliance on the DUP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Quite astonishing to see Raab doubling down on his suspending parliament .

    He’s now using this to dupe the plebs into thinking this is a good tactic against the EU .

    Some Leavers will obviously now support this coup . We’ve really hit rock bottom when the country is effectively heading for Banana Republic status .

    Proroguing Parliament to deliver a destructive Brexit the majority of voters are already opposed to is a magnificent plan. I do not think Raab is unhinged in any way at all.

    According to YouGov a Raab led Tories would be the largest party in parliament albeit without a Tory majority unlike a Boris led Tories, so do not think what you call 'a destructive Brexit' is not without supporters

    I would take all polls about any Tory leader with a total pinch of salt right now. However, I will bet literally any sum you care to name that the Tories will not get close to winning most seats in any election that follows a No Deal Brexit.

    I'm not taking that bet but will happily join in on your side of it. As I've continually stated Brexit will destroy the Conservative Party the only question is one of when (where the how determines when when is)..
    It may yet actually destroy the Labour Party, YouGov gives a Boris led Tories a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs who are tied for second with the Brexit Party falling back to 13% from 20%.

    Corbyn could yet suffer the fate Foot narrowly avoided in 1983 and take Labour to third behind a centrist, pro European liberal third party, at least in voteshare
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Sounds good to me. We have Scottish nationalists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish nationalists. About time we have English nationalists.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,811
    Yes, what a terrible error to call that election. If only she could turn back the clock. David Davis was one of the main guys pushing it for it, I understand. Bet it keeps him up at night. Looks a haunted man, doesn't he, David Davis?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Mr. kinabalu, calling the election is entirely defensible.

    Running the worst election campaign in modern history is not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Pre-qualifying ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/canada-pre-qualifying-2019.html

    Includes some observations on the fastest laps so far.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, what a terrible error to call that election. If only she could turn back the clock. David Davis was one of the main guys pushing it for it, I understand. Bet it keeps him up at night. Looks a haunted man, doesn't he, David Davis?

    How would he have known what a dreadful campaign she would run?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,282
    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Sounds good to me. We have Scottish nationalists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish nationalists. About time we have English nationalists.

    They have been around for decades, mostly in the Conservative party.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261
    When is the first round of voting expected?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Sounds good to me. We have Scottish nationalists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish nationalists. About time we have English nationalists.

    They have been around for decades, mostly in the Conservative party.

    Good. Nothing wrong with that.

    Are you so condescending with Scottish nationalists?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Andrea Leadsom is now third-favourite, just behind Hunt, with Gove out to 11/1 after his drugs non-story. Boris is 1/2.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 8
    Pulpstar said:

    A guess on a few likely votes

    Priti Patel's twitter timeline is full of pro-Boris stuff

    Lee Rowley, Mark Spencer and Ben Bradley have been out with Esther Mcvey at blue collar Tory events.

    All of the latter three represent working class leave seats in the north and midlands which are very marginal.

    Priti represents a similar area but has a large majority - but which being in Essex could easily go Brexit party.

    They need Brexit to happen and soon to have a chance of holding their seats. So Boris will probably be their man n later rounds as he appeals to aspirational C2DE voters once Esther is we assume eliminated. Bradley in particular has a lot of potential to appeal to the new Tory voting base.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,133
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
    The German Green leadership is pretty hard-headed, to the point that I don't consider them left-wing. In my previous job I tried to persuade the Green state leadership in a big state to reduce extremely stressful experiments on primates (who are induced to participate in alertness tests by starving them of water and giving them "rewards" of tiny amounts of juice if they behave). The Greens shrugged and said they couldn't interfere with business and science.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,780
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
    German Greens are not the same as the Greens we have.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037

    When is the first round of voting expected?

    Nominations close Monday. First ballot Thursday.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 2,126
    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    Renting is often fine when starting out but renting without security of tenure is generally bad for families, indeed it will result in fewer people choosing to have families.

    Not sure what the proposals of governments of all colours means, the Tory government has made some recent positive changes making it less attractive to rent properties out but are still heavily subsidising landlords. Going back a long time I can't of anything the Brown/Blair governments did to make landlording less attractive.

    In contrast all governments this century have boosted housing benefit (doubled since 2000) which are subsidies to landlords, not to mention the impact of QE to boost asset prices without an equivalent increase in wages, the various help to buy schemes, the nationalisation of our banks and associated lending into btl rather than businesses - it is clear that landlords have been hugely subsidised by the government compared to a free market rather than penalised as your post suggests.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    When is the first round of voting expected?


    June 13 (I believe)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261

    When is the first round of voting expected?

    Nominations close Monday. First ballot Thursday.
    Thanks
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    I don't know why they can't hold the first ballot on Tuesday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 10,261
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    You're suggesting Boris would quickly call a GE?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 8
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Greens again lead in another German poll with the AfD now tieing the SPD for third

    If the greens get in control, that will be Germany eventually f*cked due to the herds of pink elephants.
    If the Greens do get in, Germany would be the most left wing major country in Europe, with France under Macron, Italy under Salvini, the UK likely under Boris, even Spain under Sanchez to their right (and in Greece PM Tsipras' leftwing populism is on the wane given he has called snap elections and trails the centre right badly in the polls)

    Although Nick Palmer correctly points out German Greens are not all Caroline Lucas clones to get a majority they will need the hard left Linke as well as the SPD so that means a clear shift left in Germany.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018

    F1: trying to work out if Bottas, each way, at 6 is worth it for fastest qualifier. Tricky.

    Edited extra bit: decided against it. Ramble up soon.

    Bottas top 3 is my bet for qualifying.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    I don't know why they can't hold the first ballot on Tuesday.


    I think there's only two days of balloting - the first day removes the no-hopers, then the second will have repeated voting till the final two are reached.

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 8

    rcs1000 said:

    Having just caught up with (some of) the earlier threat, and in particular how to ensure affordable housing. A few thoughts:

    4. Don't think that renting is automatically bad and owning good. Think in terms of overall property supply. Many of the proposals from government of all colours have worked to discourage people renting properties out, which has the knock on effect of discouraging construction, as it is a supply of additional properties for sale.

    Renting is often fine when starting out but renting without security of tenure is generally bad for families, indeed it will result in fewer people choosing to have families.

    Not sure what the proposals of governments of all colours means, the Tory government has made some recent positive changes making it less attractive to rent properties out but are still heavily subsidising landlords. Going back a long time I can't of anything the Brown/Blair governments did to make landlording less attractive.

    In contrast all governments this century have boosted housing benefit (doubled since 2000) which are subsidies to landlords, not to mention the impact of QE to boost asset prices without an equivalent increase in wages, the various help to buy schemes, the nationalisation of our banks and associated lending into btl rather than businesses - it is clear that landlords have been hugely subsidised by the government compared to a free market rather than penalised as your post suggests.

    Renting is fine as you say if you have long term security of tenure as happens in Germany and elsewhere in most of Europe - long term security, controlled rent levels and the ability to make changes to the property to your tastes.

    However if you are constantly at risk of rent rises, have no ability to improve your home to your tastes and worst of all are at as little as two months risk of being made homeless with you and your kids facing being thrown out on the street for no fault of your own - it can be pretty s**t! And that also means finding a new place, 6 weeks rent deposit before you get your old deposit back, moving costs, possibly new furniture, time off work to find a new place, new school for your kids, New GP, longer trip to work etc etc.


    Yes those poor buy to landlords have it so tough - just sitting at home waiting for that £1200 a month standing order to appear in their bank account after their tenant gets paid for actually doing a useful job for 35 hours a week.

    Someone said earlier renting was a choice between two consenting adults. I would suggest having shelter for your family is not a choice but a necessity in a cold damp country like the UK.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538

    AndyJS said:

    I don't know why they can't hold the first ballot on Tuesday.


    I think there's only two days of balloting - the first day removes the no-hopers, then the second will have repeated voting till the final two are reached.

    That's true, but with nominations closing on Monday I thought they could voting start on Tuesday instead of waiting until Thursday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Conservative and Unionist Party wishes to destroy itself it would be rude to stop it from doing so.

    You say that. But if the replacement is a wild set of bat-shit crazy loons who don't believe in parliamentary democracy but whacko voice of the public ideas, then the country is even more f-ed than I thought.

    Things just seem to be getting worse and worse.

    I wonder what the Queen thinks of what is being done to her realm.

    Unfortunately, the only way to kill of the hard right English nationalism the Tories are now embracing is for them to confront the reality of what it delivers. We need to hit rock bottom before we can start rebuilding the country the Tories have smashed to pieces. There's a way to go yet. That it will result in the total humiliation and disgrace of Johnson and co is the one silver lining in the whole sorry episode.

    Boris actually is more of a 'global vision' Brexiteer rather than the English nationalism of say Farage or Bill Cash

    He would happily destroy the Union and dump all over the people of Northern Ireland to secure power. Just like all the other Tory leadership candidates with a chance of winning. He is a hard core English nationalist.

    Far from it, indeed Boris will go for a FTA most people in GB want by removing the temporary customs union for the political declaration and he may yet accept the backstop for NI (with some vague promise about finding a technical solution) in order to get that GB FTA. If Boris wins a majority he then can dispense with the DUP and reluctantly accept the backstop for the time being, avoiding a hard border in the process as most NI voters want
    How does that ever pass Parliament? If they can’t amend the backstop to get the DUP on board then the only way out is going to be a new Parliament - so we get an election in the autumn.
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