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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON lea

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight

Here is tonight’s chart showing the movement on the Betfair exchange next CON leader market where the total gambled has now topped £3.5m.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    First - Like BORIS soon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077


    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,000
    edited June 11
    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    edited June 11

    So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?

    He's got his campaign launch tomorrow but I think he might send that dimwit Francois in his place! :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108

    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.

    Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far

    They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.
    Prorogation was never a viable option and if that wasn’t already obvious Rory Stewart killed it stone dead tonight. The headbangers simply don’t have the numbers.
    Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.
    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.

    Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.
    In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?
    Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.

    He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
    Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.
    Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.
    How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?
    You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.
    People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.

    Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
    I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.

    Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.
    In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?
    Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.

    He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
    Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.
    Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative
    Then why say he 'could have made that pitch for the Conservatives' and that he didn't? Seems a lot like saying he is not making a Conservative pitch.
    Read my posts again, and try and understand what I’ve said.
    Perhaps instead of condescending that I did not comprehend your point, you might consider that your point was not in any way well made and was not as self evident as you thought it was, given multiple people have taken away from it what you claim was not there. It happens, believe me I know.

    Whatever your claimed intent, you said he did not make a pitch for the Conservatives, and are now whining that people read into that that you do not think he made a Conservative pitch.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    edited June 11

    So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?

    He appears tomorrow does he not? With some more endorsements and a lot of fancy talking laced with optimism but not much else (which is even what Rory did).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 597
    FPT
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.

    Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far

    They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.
    The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.
    Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.
    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.

    Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.
    In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?
    Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.

    He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
    Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.
    Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.
    How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?
    You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.
    People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.

    Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
    I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.
    Anecdote.

    Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.

    “Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    Streeter said:

    FPT

    Anecdote.

    Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.

    “Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”

    I don't doubt that it is practically another country for many of us!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,544
    Is the challenge for Boris simply to match the number of declared supporters in the voting on Thursday? I imagine that would be enough to make him a near-certainty for the final two.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,250
    edited June 11
    FPT for @Cyclefree:
    Cyclefree said:

    Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.

    I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.

    He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.

    Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!

    So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.

    If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.

    But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.
    If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7th near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,534
    Could someone perhaps explain to Boris that PMQ’s is one of the things PMs have to do and that hiding away from questions does not suggest someone with what it takes to be PM.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16
    If you’re open to a sporting bet I’ll wager with you that the Conservatives will not get an overall majority in any general election held in 2019. Void if no election.

    I’d be happy to make it charitable, stake of your choice up to £100.
    OK but £50 is my limit I am afraid and it only applies if Boris is leader, I do not see any other Tory leader getting an overall majority
    I’m happy to accept those terms - for charity?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    edited June 11
    Ha. He's still canny - gave himself an out by saying he had not read the detail but was inclined to support the reported substance, which allows him to oppose it later.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,534
    rpjs said:

    FPT for @Cyclefree:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.

    I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.

    He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.

    Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!

    So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.

    If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.

    But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.
    If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7h near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.

    Thank you. The first I’ve been to. I will look into the others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16
    If you’re open to a sporting bet I’ll wager with you that the Conservatives will not get an overall majority in any general election held in 2019. Void if no election.

    I’d be happy to make it charitable, stake of your choice up to £100.
    OK but £50 is my limit I am afraid and it only applies if Boris is leader, I do not see any other Tory leader getting an overall majority
    I’m happy to accept those terms - for charity?
    Agreed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    Cyclefree said:

    Could someone perhaps explain to Boris that PMQ’s is one of the things PMs have to do and that hiding away from questions does not suggest someone with what it takes to be PM.

    I maintain the theory PMQs may be why our PMs are so obsessed with GE's, because the dispatch box in front of them literally has the letters GE carved into the side facing them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,000
    CON Gain Rory the Tory !
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.

    However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.

    I agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited June 11
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    If the polls change of course I might reconsider but the polling has been clear for a while now Boris is the Tories' best bet.

    Having said that I suspect Rory Stewart would poll better with Labour and LD and Green voters than Boris but how many of them would vote for a Stewart led Tory Party? A handful at most
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.

    However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.

    I agree.

    I don't, but you are correct that is the logic of their position. Like many their position argues for no deal even as they pretend no deal is horrible. At least the no dealers here and in parliament admit they are happy for that outcome.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Pulpstar said:

    CON Gain Rory the Tory !

    Rory Rory is he really at Tory? Rory Rory is he a Lib Dem?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301
    Streeter said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.

    Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far

    They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.
    The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.
    Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.
    Streeter said:



    You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.

    People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.

    Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
    I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.
    Anecdote.

    Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.

    “Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”
    I can beat that: I had a girl in HR ask me if South Africa is in the EU.

    Although given the RSS conference is in Belfast this year, the funny looks the travel agent gave me did run a close second... :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336
    Cyclefree said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT for @Cyclefree:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.

    I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.

    He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.

    Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!

    So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.

    If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.

    But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.
    If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7h near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.

    Thank you. The first I’ve been to. I will look into the others.
    My other half would make a beeline to La Boite spice shop in Hell’s Kitchen. But that is admittedly niche.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    The backstop avoids either side using the border for leverage in trade talks - it's a two-way thing, and it's the UK the benefits the most from it, since it's the UK that has to bear the cost of maintaining order in Northern Ireland.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,795

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
    Cost more than 2k.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,077



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    I think its possibly a comment on clumsy use of upper.

    The higher rate of tax is paid by millions (4.2 in June 2017, may even have crossed 5 million by now), while the additional rate, which kicks it at £150,000, was paid by just shy of 400k back then.

    I don't know if more up to date numbers are out there. Must be.

    Anyway, as the debate has focused on the higher rate so far, I'd give the tweet the benefit of the doubt.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,534
    It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
    Cost more than 2k.
    How much more?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,250
    Streeter said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    MrsB said:

    Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.

    Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far

    They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.
    The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.
    Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.
    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:


    Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.

    In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?
    Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.

    He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
    Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.
    Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.
    How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?
    You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.
    People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.

    Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
    I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.
    Anecdote.

    Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.

    “Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”
    "Eire" was the description of the Irish state in English for just twelve years (1937-1949). Why do so many people in Britain still use it?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,226



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    I think its possibly a comment on clumsy use of upper.

    The higher rate of tax is paid by millions (4.2 in June 2017, may even have crossed 5 million by now), while the additional rate, which kicks it at £150,000, was paid by just shy of 400k back then.

    I don't know if more up to date numbers are out there. Must be.

    Anyway, as the debate has focused on the higher rate so far, I'd give the tweet the benefit of the doubt.
    Yes most likely. The correct name for the 45p rate that kicks in at £150k is the “additional rate”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 26,163
  • eekeek Posts: 5,795



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

  • RobertGilesRobertGiles Posts: 7

    Pulpstar said:

    Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.

    I think you know the reason.
    what is the reason? it seems like a possible anomaly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    edited June 11
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
    I meant no one is so silly as to bet that Rory would win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    I'm sure they'd find a way. There are only 24 hours left to stop a no deal Brexit etc etc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,538
    Politics between now and 31st October is certainly going to be diverting.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029
    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,226
    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108
    rpjs said:
    A lot of people kidding themselves about what he has promised. While him saying he will do something is no guarantee he will, those relying on him definitely doing the opposite of what he says are fooling themselves the most.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Nevertheless they have possibly helped bring about that which they said they did not want.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Our interests are not. We need to stand up for our own interests, the EU is not going to stand up for our interests.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018

    eek said:



    “Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?

    It is millions. That's a matter of fact.

    Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
    Equally it's millions less than it used to be.

    In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
    in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..

    And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.
    The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    That’s not a reason we should agree to it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,295
    rpjs said:
    Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079
    Cyclefree said:

    It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.

    The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,018

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.
    Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,534
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.

    The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.
    I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.
    The backstop is precisely them doing that. The only reason we would possibly sign the backstop is because they are using the border as leverage.

    An open border on the Ireland of Ireland is not worth the backstop. Would the Republic agree to be subject to our laws which we could change and they get no representation in passing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079

    rpjs said:
    Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.
    My mother is voting for Boris in the final two. She wouldn't explain why.

    She was going to back Leadsom last time, mind you!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.
    Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.
    21st century colonialism. Disgusting, and the people backing this call themselves "moderates".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.

    The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.
    I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.
    Mid you, last time I was in NYC, I went up the World Trade Centre. It has been a while!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301

    rpjs said:
    Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.
    The word you are looking for is "taint". Boris the Taint. Seems apt in a GoT way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 16,411
    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:
    Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.
    My mother is voting for Boris in the final two. She wouldn't explain why.

    She was going to back Leadsom last time, mind you!
    So Fox In Socks In Ox is from Tory stock? :open_mouth:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
    Cost more than 2k.
    How much more?
    Depends on how many supplementaries you wish to ask and of course the sample size.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    That’s not a reason we should agree to it.
    And yet we signed the GFA...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.

    However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.

    I agree.

    Errr, the whole point of the backstop is if there isn't an agreement during the transition phase.

    Now, I'm not a great fan of it. But the reality is that the backstop only kicks in under two circumstances:

    1. We are not able to agree an FTA with the EU
    and
    2. We have not implemented a system for tracking shipments away from the border

    In the event the EU is not sincere in negotiating an FTA or in implementing a technical solution, then we can take the EU to the Permanent Court of Arbitration. (If they are sincere, then there is no issue, because the backstop will never kick in.) If the PCA rules in our favour, then we are free to walk with no consequences.

    Alternatively, we are always free to abrogate the treaty - as the US has done with three treaties in the last 18 months.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,074
    edited June 11
    What do MPs care about most? Retaining their seats and winning.

    If they conclude Rory is best placed to beat Corbyn then many will vote for him.

    At the moment it's like Corbyn early in the Lab leadership - nobody thought he had a chance. But what Corbyn showed is that if you can get real momentum (ignore pun!) then things can change and they can change very rapidly.

    Rory may still be a long shot but make no mistake - he could win this if he gets momentum.

    In a Final vs Boris, members will also mainly be thinking about one thing - winning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,012
    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.

    I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.

    Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...

    Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
    The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.
    I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bed
    If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexit

    That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
    If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyed
    Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16


    If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?

    Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)

    Ouch.

    No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
    Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.
    Cost more than 2k.
    How much more?
    Depends on how many supplementaries you wish to ask and of course the sample size.
    What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:

    "If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"

    And

    "If Boris Johnson was ditto"

    If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,029
    rcs1000 said:

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,503

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.
    Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.
    We are destined to be an EU colony regardless of what Brexit deal we get because that's the reality of the situation. We will be a small country on the edge of a super power.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,250
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.

    The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.
    I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.
    Mid you, last time I was in NYC, I went up the World Trade Centre. It has been a while!
    The new 1WTC has a viewing gallery as well. As an employee of a WTC tenant (I'm currently looking out at the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges from the 60th floor of 4WTC) I believe I'm supposed to get a discount but haven't got around to doing it yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461
    viewcode said:



    What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:

    "If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"

    And

    "If Boris Johnson was ditto"

    If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.

    On a standard sample (circa 1,500 respondents) you're looking at £5k to £7k.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,250
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
    World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 24,691
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?
    Ireland is an EU member. Their interests are
    aligned.
    Indeed they are - against the British.

    That’s not a reason we should agree to it.
    And yet we signed the GFA...
    Which does not include the backstop...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,872
    rpjs said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
    World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!
    We just have time.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,250

    rpjs said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
    World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!
    We just have time.
    Not really. UTC is controlled by the ITU in Geneva.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,108

    rcs1000 said:

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?
    Actually no - asking the people of NI is clearly simpler than asking the whole of the UK something, it is far fewer people and on a matter of less complexity (one part of the WA vs all the WA). What you mean is if it would be better to ask the people of the UK.
  • isamisam Posts: 28,347
    Rory 2nd, Jezza a distance back in 3rd?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 10,301

    viewcode said:



    What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:

    "If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"

    And

    "If Boris Johnson was ditto"

    If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.

    On a standard sample (circa 1,500 respondents) you're looking at £5k to £7k.
    Oh, arse. Can't do it. Might have been able to afford a K, but not 5-7k. Sorry to waste your time... :(
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264

    rcs1000 said:

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?
    Yes.

    We already know that the majority of the NI electorate would be happy with the backstop.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,503
    rpjs said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
    World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!
    You do, you do. Doesn't count though. I'm not even going to mention that London has other features - important stuff, that I'm sure someone somewhere will love.

    It just is, or at least it is just becoming.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,872
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.

    No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.
    No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.

    So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
    Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?
    No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.

    No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
    In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.

    You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
    Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.
    The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.
    Europe cut off, storm in channel.

    I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....

    I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!

    (London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
    World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!
    We just have time.
    Not really. UTC is controlled by the ITU in Geneva.
    If I knew what that was, I might be impressed.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 3,059
    rcs1000 said:

    Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?

    Arguably the simplest thing (other than not bothering with Brexit at all) would actually be to give Northern Ireland to the Republic and be done with it.

    However, neither this solution nor that which you propose would be acceptable to the party holding the balance of power in the current Parliament and therefore it cannot happen, of course.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,077
    British defence policy through the last 500 years was to ensure a power balance in Europe. Now thanks to the moronic Brexiteers the whole of Europe is united. Against us. There is no outcome where we eventually end up anything other than a vassal state of the EU. Even with a WTO Brexit. Geography and geopolitics dictate it.
This discussion has been closed.