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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democra

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

While all the focus in the UK has been on the CON leadership race there’ve been significant moves in the fight for the 2020 Democratic nomination. This comes as the many contenders, there are more than 20 of them, focus on the first national TV debates between the hopefuls later in the month. These are seen as the formal start of the campaign.

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,313
    First!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,951
    fpt for foxy

    I'm not sure Boris is that relevant, he cannot command the waves. And I think the tides of history are carrying us towards No Deal.

    I agree that we need to steer carefully, nonetheless - perhaps the apt comparison is deliberately beaching a ship in a storm, to save the passengers, rather than breaking the ship on the rocks, and losing lives.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    FPT
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

    Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

    But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

    Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.
    To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

    Both seem equally bonkers to me.
    I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

    Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.
    Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

    So in your opinion we won't have any real initial problems but longer term we are going to have issues - No Deal may just bring those issues forward a bit...
    No, supplies will be an issue very quickly, with multiple operations cancelled, and equipment out of service. There is more to the NHS than handing out pills.

    In the longer term, yes staffing will be the big problem.
    How many deaths is "few", though? I've read that even now there can be significant problems getting some prescription drugs.

    This is what I asked earlier. How many deaths directly attributable to a No Deal Brexit could the prime minister and the Tory party survive?
    Sadly deaths due to missed / cancelled operations would be far harder to pin on No Deal than prescription drugs...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    8 Labour MPs voted with the Government to successfully defeat attempts to take No Deal off the table this afternoon and 11 abstained

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 2,951
    malcolmg said:
    Ugh. Reading between the lines -

    “.... we will support him totally in his recovery, help him to recalibrate and assist him in pursuing his future goals and ambitions.”

    - that sounds horribly like a career-ending crash. Sad.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    Byronic said:

    malcolmg said:
    Ugh. Reading between the lines -

    “.... we will support him totally in his recovery, help him to recalibrate and assist him in pursuing his future goals and ambitions.”

    - that sounds horribly like a career-ending crash. Sad.
    That really, really doesn't sound good...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    Sanders is still ahead of Warren in Iowa though, the first state to vote.

    Together the Sanders and Warren combined come to 28% with Yougov, more than Biden's 27% so whichever of them beats the other in Iowa or New Hampshire could well be Democratic nominee as they are both fishing in the same poll of left liberal voters
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 78,311
    edited June 12
    I see a sponger who hung around with a paedo knows so much about the economy.



    The Duke of York is a bigger parasite than the Prince of Wales, at least the Duke of York has never fantasised about being a tampon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,313
    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,140
    eek said:

    FPT

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:


    Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

    To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

    Both seem equally bonkers to me.
    I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

    Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.
    Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

    So in your opinion we won't have any real initial problems but longer term we are going to have issues - No Deal may just bring those issues forward a bit...
    No, supplies will be an issue very quickly, with multiple operations cancelled, and equipment out of service. There is more to the NHS than handing out pills.

    In the longer term, yes staffing will be the big problem.
    How many deaths is "few", though? I've read that even now there can be significant problems getting some prescription drugs.

    This is what I asked earlier. How many deaths directly attributable to a No Deal Brexit could the prime minister and the Tory party survive?
    Sadly deaths due to missed / cancelled operations would be far harder to pin on No Deal than prescription drugs...
    Yes. But given how close to capacity the NHS operates at the best of times, I think people are being incredibly naive if they think there's going to be significant disruption without there also being deaths in both those categories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,952
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:
    Could be a lot of yellers for Hunt and Gove to bid for come tomorrow night. Not so many blues available.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,140
    HYUFD said:
    Why is Rory not in his proper place in that chart?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    What he is going for is not that relevant, what he can do is relevant, and there's no deal he can pass with the support he has.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why is Rory not in his proper place in that chart?
    Leadsom at 9s on Betfair is lolz.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 31,952
    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,468

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    And women :blush:
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    edited June 12
    Chris said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:


    Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

    To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

    Both seem equally bonkers to me.
    I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

    Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.
    Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

    So in your opinion we won't have any real initial problems but longer term we are going to have issues - No Deal may just bring those issues forward a bit...
    No, supplies will be an issue very quickly, with multiple operations cancelled, and equipment out of service. There is more to the NHS than handing out pills.

    In the longer term, yes staffing will be the big problem.
    How many deaths is "few", though? I've read that even now there can be significant problems getting some prescription drugs.

    This is what I asked earlier. How many deaths directly attributable to a No Deal Brexit could the prime minister and the Tory party survive?
    Sadly deaths due to missed / cancelled operations would be far harder to pin on No Deal than prescription drugs...
    Yes. But given how close to capacity the NHS operates at the best of times, I think people are being incredibly naive if they think there's going to be significant disruption without there also being deaths in both those categories.
    There probably will be deaths - the deaths just won't be ones that can be easily pinned on the UK running out of drug X which the death was caused by...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,467
    I read that as "while they are all very tainted".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:
    Could be a lot of yellers for Hunt and Gove to bid for come tomorrow night. Not so many blues available.
    Could Javid challenge Hunt, Gove and Raab for the runner up to Boris spot tomorrow?

    His launch speech seemed to go well and he was a Remainer but with Eurosceptic pedigree

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,727

    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.

    Provided those declared actually vote for him and after this morning lacklustre performance that must be a possibility.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,140
    eek said:

    Chris said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:



    I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

    Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

    Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

    So in your opinion we won't have any real initial problems but longer term we are going to have issues - No Deal may just bring those issues forward a bit...
    No, supplies will be an issue very quickly, with multiple operations cancelled, and equipment out of service. There is more to the NHS than handing out pills.

    In the longer term, yes staffing will be the big problem.
    How many deaths is "few", though? I've read that even now there can be significant problems getting some prescription drugs.

    This is what I asked earlier. How many deaths directly attributable to a No Deal Brexit could the prime minister and the Tory party survive?
    Sadly deaths due to missed / cancelled operations would be far harder to pin on No Deal than prescription drugs...
    Yes. But given how close to capacity the NHS operates at the best of times, I think people are being incredibly naive if they think there's going to be significant disruption without there also being deaths in both those categories.
    There probably will be deaths - the deaths just won't be ones that can be easily pinned on the UK running out of drug X which the death was caused by...
    You think no one will be unable to get their prescription drugs?

    The BBC reported this in January:
    "Pharmacists say they are struggling to obtain many common medicines including painkillers and anti-depressants.
    This is leaving patients complaining of delays in getting hold of drugs and pharmacists paying over the odds for common medicines.
    The BBC has found there has been a big rise in the number of drugs on the "shortage of supply" list for England.
    There are 80 medicines in such short supply that the Department of Health has agreed to pay a premium for them."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
    No that was Theresa May.

    It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,468

    I see a sponger who hung around with a paedo knows so much about the economy.



    The Duke of York is a bigger parasite than the Prince of Wales, at least the Duke of York has never fantasised about being a tampon.
    Monarchy = Socialism :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    edited June 12
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris today said he wanted to avoid No Deal if possible to be fair and Raab and McVey and Leadsom have a higher percentage of Leaver support than Boris on that chart
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,575

    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.

    Provided those declared actually vote for him and after this morning lacklustre performance that must be a possibility.
    Don't get your hopes up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107

    I see a sponger who hung around with a paedo knows so much about the economy.



    The Duke of York is a bigger parasite than the Prince of Wales, at least the Duke of York has never fantasised about being a tampon.
    Monarchy = Socialism :)
    Since when has the Duke of York supporting British business constituted socialism?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    edited June 12

    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.

    Provided those declared actually vote for him and after this morning lacklustre performance that must be a possibility.
    There was nothing lacklustre about it, he got the message right and avoided gaffes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    Glad I am red on Bernie.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850
    HYUFD said:
    Boris has the Big Mo now. He has won more today than 4 candidates have so far. Some MPs will back him now not because they think he is best choice but because they think he will win.

    He will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461

    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.

    Provided those declared actually vote for him and after this morning lacklustre performance that must be a possibility.
    Don't get your hopes up
    Yes, for all we mock politicians they mean what they say more often than we admit. People assuming side X don't really want policy y, they are just dumb/evil/have ulterior motive, or that they won't do as they say, can be true, but is far from guaranteed. A lot of MPs say they want Boris. They mean it too, however bizarre that might seem and even if people think they cannot possibly mean it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850

    We need to see the real numbers tomorrow but, let’s face it, Boris has the declared numbers to get into the final round now.

    That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.

    Provided those declared actually vote for him and after this morning lacklustre performance that must be a possibility.
    No offense but I think you are letting your personal thoughts on Johnson and Stewart cloud your judgement here.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
    No that was Theresa May.

    It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
    It was certainly not Theresa May.

    Theresa May set out her stall to choose one extreme. The extreme ran away from her to become more extreme and, despite her earlier bravado she balked at racing after them. Johnson will compound her error by chasing after the extreme, only to see them recede on into the distance, while provoking the other extreme to become ever bolder in turn.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
    No that was Theresa May.

    It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
    It was certainly not Theresa May.

    Theresa May set out her stall to choose one extreme. The extreme ran away from her to become more extreme and, despite her earlier bravado she balked at racing after them. Johnson will compound her error by chasing after the extreme, only to see them recede on into the distance, while provoking the other extreme to become ever bolder in turn.
    She did no such thing. She set out a very moderate soft Brexit she sought honouring the key pledges of the sides involved.

    She then failed to deliver it and drew up an even softer one in the end. A Brexit so soft that Ken Clarke was happier than almost all Brexiteers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
    No that was Theresa May.

    It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
    It was certainly not Theresa May.

    Theresa May set out her stall to choose one extreme. The extreme ran away from her to become more extreme and, despite her earlier bravado she balked at racing after them. Johnson will compound her error by chasing after the extreme, only to see them recede on into the distance, while provoking the other extreme to become ever bolder in turn.
    You make no sense. Her position is self evidently not on the extreme edge by the fact that people have gone so much further beyond it. It might well not have been in the middle, but that is not the same thing, and things have gone so far past her position that to pretend it is extreme is just silly.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    Chris said:



    You think no one will be unable to get their prescription drugs?

    The BBC reported this in January:
    "Pharmacists say they are struggling to obtain many common medicines including painkillers and anti-depressants.
    This is leaving patients complaining of delays in getting hold of drugs and pharmacists paying over the odds for common medicines.
    The BBC has found there has been a big rise in the number of drugs on the "shortage of supply" list for England.
    There are 80 medicines in such short supply that the Department of Health has agreed to pay a premium for them."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631

    I know some drugs can be in short supply. in the last 6 months I've collected 2 prescriptions and both times there has been someone visiting their x pharmacist asking for something the pharmacist hasn't got and cannot order.

    But as this is already a problem how do you blame it on Brexit when people can point at similar problems back in January...

    As I said people will probably die because of Brexit - but that doesn't mean you could pin the death on Brexit...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,258
    Boris shortening, Hunt drifting.

    Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,467
    For once, Daniel Hannan has a good point:

    The essential flaw in our system is this: you can become leader with the support of less than a third of your MPs; but, to keep the job, you need the support of more than half. Every other political party I know of gives its leader some incumbency advantage, so as to guarantee a measure of stability. Ours is the only one that raises the bar higher for sitting leaders.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/06/daniel-hannan-better-to-select-the-tory-leader-like-the-dalai-lama-than-elect-him-by-this-preposterous-method.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461
    AndyJS said:
    Always the case that the most committed, most determined, have a great chance of succeeding even when they started in a seemingly weaker position. It's why I'd never make it as a politician, I don't have the conviction even for a good idea to push through so hard against what might even be lunacy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    MikeL said:

    Boris shortening, Hunt drifting.

    Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.

    Jeremy Hunt’s odds are right. Andrea Leadsom’s are ridiculous .
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Some amazing concessions from the government here on Universal Credit, but pay no heed, there's a circus in full swing to choose the next occupant of the Brexit stocks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/12/universal-credit-delays-a-factor-in-prostitution-government-accepts
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Someone said earlier that Mark Harper is favourite to come last tomorrow. I think it's probably more likely to be Andrea Leadsom or Esther McVey.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171

    MikeL said:

    Boris shortening, Hunt drifting.

    Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.

    Jeremy Hunt’s odds are right. Andrea Leadsom’s are ridiculous .
    Indeed. Crazy. Sounds like about 5 people turned up to her launch.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:


    Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

    Peril?

    He would destroy the party.

    Die hard remainers won't vote for the Conservatives.
    Die hard leavers won't vote for Rory.

    One after next to put Brexit divisions behind us he could work. Not now.
    I think Rory is the politician with the best chance of escaping the trap of choosing between the two extremes.
    No that was Theresa May.

    It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
    It was certainly not Theresa May.

    Theresa May set out her stall to choose one extreme. The extreme ran away from her to become more extreme and, despite her earlier bravado she balked at racing after them. Johnson will compound her error by chasing after the extreme, only to see them recede on into the distance, while provoking the other extreme to become ever bolder in turn.
    You make no sense. Her position is self evidently not on the extreme edge by the fact that people have gone so much further beyond it. It might well not have been in the middle, but that is not the same thing, and things have gone so far past her position that to pretend it is extreme is just silly.
    That's just a reflection of how far the Overton window on Brexit has shifted over the last three years. What was a hard Brexit position when she staked it out is now derided as Brexit in name only.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    AndyJS said:

    Someone said earlier that Mark Harper is favourite to come last tomorrow. I think it's probably more likely to be Andrea Leadsom or Esther McVey.

    Be a relief to get McVey out straight away. We don't want a embryonic WitchFinder General anywhere near the top.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,467

    AndyJS said:

    Someone said earlier that Mark Harper is favourite to come last tomorrow. I think it's probably more likely to be Andrea Leadsom or Esther McVey.

    Be a relief to get McVey out straight away. We don't want a embryonic WitchFinder General anywhere near the top.
    I'd rank Raab below her in terms of lack of suitability for office.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,294

    For once, Daniel Hannan has a good point:

    The essential flaw in our system is this: you can become leader with the support of less than a third of your MPs; but, to keep the job, you need the support of more than half. Every other political party I know of gives its leader some incumbency advantage, so as to guarantee a measure of stability. Ours is the only one that raises the bar higher for sitting leaders.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/06/daniel-hannan-better-to-select-the-tory-leader-like-the-dalai-lama-than-elect-him-by-this-preposterous-method.html

    Not knowing how HH Dalai Lama comes about can be added to Hannan's list of ignorance.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,140
    eek said:

    Chris said:



    You think no one will be unable to get their prescription drugs?

    The BBC reported this in January:
    "Pharmacists say they are struggling to obtain many common medicines including painkillers and anti-depressants.
    This is leaving patients complaining of delays in getting hold of drugs and pharmacists paying over the odds for common medicines.
    The BBC has found there has been a big rise in the number of drugs on the "shortage of supply" list for England.
    There are 80 medicines in such short supply that the Department of Health has agreed to pay a premium for them."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631

    I know some drugs can be in short supply. in the last 6 months I've collected 2 prescriptions and both times there has been someone visiting their x pharmacist asking for something the pharmacist hasn't got and cannot order.

    But as this is already a problem how do you blame it on Brexit when people can point at similar problems back in January...

    As I said people will probably die because of Brexit - but that doesn't mean you could pin the death on Brexit...
    I suppose we won't really know until it happens.

    I dare say the families will blame Brexit in any case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    AndyJS said:

    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.

    How many stupid punters are there who bet on politics? It is a bit of specialist area isn't it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:



    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,780

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    I can't but admit to being somewhat intrigued by what a Boris premiership will be like...
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:



    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,113

    AndyJS said:

    I'd like to know whether Andrea Leadsom's odds are due to stupid punters or someone trying to artificially inflate her standing.

    How many stupid punters are there who bet on politics? It is a bit of specialist area isn't it?
    Enough :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171


    First, win an election that was yours to lose, having pushed your brother aside?
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    I can't but admit to being somewhat intrigued by what a Boris premiership will be like...
    Especially from a distance. Sadly I'll be closer but my income will be different currencies
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    Boris is back on BF exactly where he was just after he started his leader launch.

    1.56
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    eek said:

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:



    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....
    I see it in rural Hungary too. Old frightened people cling to political security blankets. But you can’t magic back jobs where young people don’t want to stay and where there are no reasons to base yourself for a business.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 12
    Interesting fact:

    There have been more deaths than births in Germany every year since 1972.
  • chloechloe Posts: 296
    It does seem like Boris is going to win this. I voted for Boris twice as Mayor of London. I would not vote for him in a general election on a no deal platform.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 12
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    I can't but admit to being somewhat intrigued by what a Boris premiership will be like...
    PMQs will run to an hour or more as he bumbles through answers and the Speaker intervenes constantly?

    Still at least Boris has experience in avoiding answering the question from 8 years doing Mayor's Question Time.

    It is certainly going to be interesting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    I can't but admit to being somewhat intrigued by what a Boris premiership will be like...
    PMQs will run to an hour or more as he bumbles through answers and the Speaker intervenes constantly?

    Still at least Boris has experience in avoiding answering the question from 8 years doing Mayor's Question Time.

    It is certainly going to be interesting.
    One thing is certain. We will learn a lot of new, archaic words.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,299

    eek said:

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:

    https:/)./twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/1138863920867885056?s=21

    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?

    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....
    I see it in rural Hungary too. Old frightened people cling to political security blankets. But you can’t magic back jobs where young people don’t want to stay and where there are no reasons to base yourself for a business.
    Hungary may be worse as there are an awful lot of Hungarians in Vienna (you can be back home in an hour or so - a friend there told me one day he had to get his passport renewed so wouldn't be in the office until 10:00 but was there at 9:40 with his newly issued replacement Hungarian passport).

    Bulgaria really has nowhere locally that is a better place to head to. They seem like Romanians to head towards the UK or Ireland as they know a bit of English.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,371
    Smart people have been tipping (and betting) on Warren for a while.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,072
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Cox's support confirms that Boris isn't going for no deal, whatever he might say.
    Boris is all things to all men.
    I can't but admit to being somewhat intrigued by what a Boris premiership will be like...
    Sorry to make a cheap point but it's probably a lot more intriguing if you are well off and living abroad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,371
    Have ComRes fucked it. This just seems bonkers

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,171
    chloe said:

    It does seem like Boris is going to win this. I voted for Boris twice as Mayor of London. I would not vote for him in a general election on a no deal platform.

    If you think it is home and dry, then 1.56 looks very tasty surely? Many times a bank account rate.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 440
    edited June 12
    Chris said:



    Snip.....

    The BBC reported this in January:
    "Pharmacists say they are struggling to obtain many common medicines including painkillers and anti-depressants.
    This is leaving patients complaining of delays in getting hold of drugs and pharmacists paying over the odds for common medicines.
    The BBC has found there has been a big rise in the number of drugs on the "shortage of supply" list for England.
    There are 80 medicines in such short supply that the Department of Health has agreed to pay a premium for them."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631

    I’ve posted before that I have been closely involved in no-deal planning for an NHS Trust for the past 12 months.

    The national and local contingencies in place are detailed and extensive and cover every aspect of service delivery. There is no change in either supply or demand for medicines, devices and other consumables. Any disruption will be linked to transport through Channel ports, but there are very extensive additional supplies being housed in the UK. In March the government had organised additional, dedicated and prioritised NHS non-Channel freight capacity equal to the total current NHS freight capacity; this also included small volumes of refrigerated air capacity for critical time-limited products. All our manufacturers confirmed their contingencies were robust.

    I have absolutely no qualms about being treated myself or my family, in the period after a no deal Exit. My wife is a GP and similarly has no concerns. She was a Remain voter, I was a leave voter. We see mostly project fear reporting over NHS that bears little relation to the real situation on the ground.

    Our workforce risk is considerably exaggerated too - although the proportion of non-Irish EU staff is higher the further south and east you go. Overall however, about 4% of NHS staff are EU citizens - the vast majority of whom are in settled and highly qualified roles. The greater risk is probably in lower-paid social care staff. But they mostly returned after Christmas, which was the concern.

    The NHS is very adept at managing supply issues - we do it day in, day out.

    The 80 medicines shortages referred to in the BBC article were all non-Brexit issues and a fairly typical number we manage at any one time. Most are related to changes in manufacturing capacity in the Far East.

    I’m not foolish enough to say there will be no disruption - but the NHS is well prepared, knows where the risk areas are, and any problems are more likely to be a result of over-reaction to unfounded concerns and local stockpiling, than any real Brexit issues.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    edited June 12
    chloe said:

    It does seem like Boris is going to win this. I voted for Boris twice as Mayor of London. I would not vote for him in a general election on a no deal platform.

    Boris only won London with the votes of people who voted Labour or LD in 2010 and 2015 as Labour won a majority of seats and votes in London at both those elections despite losing nationally.

    He can thus still win a general election even if he loses the votes of some who supported his Mayoral bid in 2008 and 2012 to Labour or the LDs
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,467
    Alistair said:

    Have ComRes fucked it. This just seems bonkers

    More from Comedy Results:

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Moral Maze on R4 - Michael Gove and drugs - 45 minutes PPB for the other candidates.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,014
    eek said:

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:



    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....

    In UK in 2017: 755k births, 607k deaths. Plus net migration adding 200k pa plus to that positive figure UK have lots to be positive about and could whinge a bit less.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:

    https:/)./twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/1138863920867885056?s=21

    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?

    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....
    I see it in rural Hungary too. Old frightened people cling to political security blankets. But you can’t magic back jobs where young people don’t want to stay and where there are no reasons to base yourself for a business.
    Hungary may be worse as there are an awful lot of Hungarians in Vienna (you can be back home in an hour or so - a friend there told me one day he had to get his passport renewed so wouldn't be in the office until 10:00 but was there at 9:40 with his newly issued replacement Hungarian passport).

    Bulgaria really has nowhere locally that is a better place to head to. They seem like Romanians to head towards the UK or Ireland as they know a bit of English.
    Young people head to Britain, Germany, Canada, the USA and Austria but Hungary’s cities are ok. Budapest obviously is doing well, but Pécs, Győr and Szeged are thriving too.

    Outside the wine areas and the tourist destinations, the countryside is adrift.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,371

    MikeL said:

    Boris shortening, Hunt drifting.

    Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.

    Jeremy Hunt’s odds are right. Andrea Leadsom’s are ridiculous .
    The British Jeb Bush.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting fact:

    There have been more deaths than births in Germany every year since 1972.

    Shocking fact considering increasing life expectancy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Wildly off topic, here’s a truly excellent article about east Germany that has implications for Britain too:



    What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
    Pass - it's the same in Bulgaria or even worse. Speaking to someone in Sofia a while ago 35% of his home town have left for work elsewhere. The only people there are 50+....

    In UK in 2017: 755k births, 607k deaths. Plus net migration adding 200k pa plus to that positive figure UK have lots to be positive about and could whinge a bit less.

    There’s a big question of where. Some bits of Britain are sinking.

    It will surprise no one to learn that those are closely correlated with Leave heartlands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107

    AndyJS said:

    Someone said earlier that Mark Harper is favourite to come last tomorrow. I think it's probably more likely to be Andrea Leadsom or Esther McVey.

    Be a relief to get McVey out straight away. We don't want a embryonic WitchFinder General anywhere near the top.
    I'd rank Raab below her in terms of lack of suitability for office.
    I have a funny feeling Javid or Raab could end up Boris' opponent in the final two, not Gove or Hunt but we will see what tomorrow brings.

    Remember almost 80 Tory MPs yet to declare and The Saj had a very good launch introduced by Ruth Davidson, probably the best received so far while Raab is positioning himself as the true hard Brexit candidate to the ERG
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    edited June 12
    Alistair said:

    MikeL said:

    Boris shortening, Hunt drifting.

    Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.

    Jeremy Hunt’s odds are right. Andrea Leadsom’s are ridiculous .
    The British Jeb Bush.
    Hunt yes, Boris the British Trump, Javid the British Rubio, Raab the British Ted Cruz, Rory Stewart the British John Kasich, Gove the British Rand Paul?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,140

    Alistair said:

    Have ComRes fucked it. This just seems bonkers

    More from Comedy Results:

    Just as well the Electoral Commission doesn't have to vet the wording of their questions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850
    If Boris does win I'm wondering how clever Grieve and his fellow Remain backing MPs who rejected May's very soft Brexit will feel.

    Even Ken Clarke backed it FFS.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850

    Alistair said:

    Have ComRes fucked it. This just seems bonkers

    More from Comedy Results:

    Makes me feel sad that 34% say no to that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850
    Scott_P said:
    Gove and Raab pull out and Boris will get a lot of transfers from them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850
    Could Boris be the only Leaver standing by end of tomorrow?
  • chloechloe Posts: 296
    What time do we get the first round results tomorrow? Given the number of candidates there must be a fair chance a few of them won’t get the required number of MPs to get to the next stage.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,815

    If Boris does win I'm wondering how clever Grieve and his fellow Remain backing MPs who rejected May's very soft Brexit will feel.

    Even Ken Clarke backed it FFS.

    Theresa May’s Brexit was not very soft. It was a managed hard Brexit.

    Britain is now into chaotic hard Brexit territory.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 12
    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    It does seem like Boris is going to win this. I voted for Boris twice as Mayor of London. I would not vote for him in a general election on a no deal platform.

    Boris only won London with the votes of people who voted Labour or LD in 2010 and 2015 as Labour won a majority of seats and votes in London at both those elections despite losing nationally.

    He can thus still win a general election even if he loses the votes of some who supported his Mayoral bid in 2008 and 2012 to Labour or the LDs
    Mayoral elections have much lower turnouts and in fact it was older voters in places like Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon etc that turned out for Boris big time.

    That is how he won. Boris motivated them in a way Steven Norris could not, people were bored with Ken and then in 2012 he offered the over 60s travel pass which is still in place today to get their votes! Many city bankers, judges and other wealthy Londoners still in work over 60 still enjoy this freebie today.

    Its hard to imagine now but back in 2008 or 2012 the Tories winning a London wide election was not that shocking!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 26,850

    If Boris does win I'm wondering how clever Grieve and his fellow Remain backing MPs who rejected May's very soft Brexit will feel.

    Even Ken Clarke backed it FFS.

    Theresa May’s Brexit was not very soft. It was a managed hard Brexit.

    Britain is now into chaotic hard Brexit territory.
    Is that an improvement? Did Grieve and co, the Lib Dems, Labour etc do a smart move rejecting May's deal and getting Boris?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461

    If Boris does win I'm wondering how clever Grieve and his fellow Remain backing MPs who rejected May's very soft Brexit will feel.

    Even Ken Clarke backed it FFS.

    They have made it quite clear through their actions that they would rather have the most chaotic Brexit possible than personally contribute to delivering any other Brexit deal. They might yet succeed and get Remain, and they have no problem with no deal being risked if that is achievable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,780
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting fact:

    There have been more deaths than births in Germany every year since 1972.

    That true (with slightly different start dates) across Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, China, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and is increasingly true of Latin America now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,461

    Scott_P said:
    Gove and Raab pull out and Boris will get a lot of transfers from them.
    Hunt and Javid duking it out for the last spot then. Might be worth backing Javid?
This discussion has been closed.