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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and John

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and Johnson much tighter than anybody thought

With voting now taking place amongst CON members ITV’s Politcal Editor, Robert Peston writes on the Coffee House blog

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Inertia (and votes already cast) mean this is still Boris's to lose.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,697
    Which is why Hunt now talks about no deal. He knows that to win he requires the votes of utter wazzocks
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,189

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,777
    Hunt to win after a VAR decision confirms that Boris tripped over his own feet with an open goal in sight.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Good morning, everyone.

    Worth backing Hunt?

    I saw some of ITV News last night, with Bradby and Peston telling us their opinions, with the odd sprinkling of news here and there.

    Think it was slightly odd that Peston, describing this shift, didn't point out the primary reason Hunt didn't rule out no deal, that being if he does so the options are deal or remain, and if Parliament doesn't pass a deal, he'd have to back remaining.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 800
    I have heard that the problem with member polling is that there are association members who think they are party members, when in fact they lapsed members, or party volunteers/voters who are assuming that they will have a vote in the leadership election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    edited July 3

    Inertia (and votes already cast) mean this is still Boris's to lose.

    Just a point.

    No votes have been cast yet. We do not receive our ballot papers until the 6th to the 8th July
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336
    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,557
    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    It would be quite pleasing to be honest
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 597

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 597

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
    Perfect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    I thought the ballots were landing at the end of this week?

    It would be remarkable if Tory members were more sensible than their MPs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    edited July 3

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    You are such a forgiving man.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    Isn't this just a very obvious get out the vote, expectation management play?

    Hunt has gone full fruit loop this week and gives every impression of auditioning for a part in the Johnson cabinet. Surely he would not have done this if he thought he had a genuine chance of winning.

    Peston's political antennae is perennially off-track.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    IanB2 said:

    I thought the ballots were landing at the end of this week?

    It would be remarkable if Tory members were more sensible than their MPs.

    They arrive between the 6th and 8th July and I think I am a lot more sensible than many of our mps
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,557

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    IanB2 said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    You are such a forgiving man.
    I like to be. It is a good trait in mankind
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,567
    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Presumably he tried abducting Boris Johnson's first but quickly realised his mistake...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,567

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
    Master of deadpan.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
    Master of deadpan.
    No - just true
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808
    Boris coming out against the sugar tax today when in an article in the Evening Standard dated 14th January 2016 the headlines state

    'Boris Johnson imposes sugar tax at City Hall'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Mr. NorthWales, good memory, though it'll only matter if it becomes more widely known/believed.

    I actually share a dislike for sugar taxes and the suchlike. But I have sod all confidence in Boris to do anything, and he'd be disastrous in other areas anyway, even if he kept that promise. [But then, I also don't have a vote].
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,550

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011

    IanB2 said:

    I thought the ballots were landing at the end of this week?

    It would be remarkable if Tory members were more sensible than their MPs.

    They arrive between the 6th and 8th July and I think I am a lot more sensible than many of our mps
    Yes but you are one of those the likes of HY wants to get rid of.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 55,001

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    Party members don't know who Hunt is ? It's a theory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    edited July 3

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
    Master of deadpan.
    No - just true
    Have you worked it out yet? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    50-60% as Johnson vote share at 3.8 on BFE looks worth a punt
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Mr. B2, could be wrong but I think that's actually slightly longer (4) on Ladbrokes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011

    Mr. B2, could be wrong but I think that's actually slightly longer (4) on Ladbrokes.

    I haven’t looked, but would prefer BFE as with a wobble before the result announcement its easier to offload part or all of the bet.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,168
    Alistair said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
    How representative of the members is con home? How many members are not online? I’ve no idea but it could be possible that if their is an issue with the polling it could be down to that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,141
    @Pulpstar FPT

    Isn’t “cash out” an offer to treat?

    Hence if you hit the button and Betfair doesn’t give you the money you’ve grounds for complaint?

    I’d keep a screenshot though!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,191
    Much as I would like this to be true (and since Hunt is going the full Tory Brexit loon does it really matter who wins anyway?) I expect it's just a typical effort to get the pro Johnson vote out and manage expectations so that his win looks more emphatic. But just for the sake of bantz it would be hilarious if Johnson were to lose - ideally 48-52.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,324
    I was clearing out my computer last night and came across this header I'd done featuring Boris Johnson. I was far too kind to him but some of the early comments particularly by Eagle were prescient. I was also surprised by how little had changed in three years.....

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/13/the-big-euref-advertising-news-is-that-the-saatchis-are-back/#vanilla-comments
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 3,168

    Boris coming out against the sugar tax today when in an article in the Evening Standard dated 14th January 2016 the headlines state

    'Boris Johnson imposes sugar tax at City Hall'


    And on the day that BBC News leads with obesity overtaking smoking as cause of some cancers
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,777

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
    They don't need to be mutually exclusive. You might be flamboyant to the cameras and damn good at your job behind closed doors.

    Putting to one side her politics Margaret Thatcher was a master. Riding atop a tank whilst handbagging her way through government and opposition with sheer grit, hard work and "boring" attention to detail and facts.

    The LibDems got the attention they wanted and in terms of their REMAIN position they are preeminent in UK politics that has propelled them to a position few of us would has predicted six months ago. It's difficult to argue the politics of the situation even if you dislike the BollocksToBrexit optic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    edited July 3

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually

    It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,662
    Roger said:

    I was clearing out my computer last night and came across this header I'd done featuring Boris Johnson. I was far too kind to him but some of the early comments particularly by Eagle were prescient. I was also surprised by how little had changed in three years.....

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/13/the-big-euref-advertising-news-is-that-the-saatchis-are-back/#vanilla-comments

    He famously invited the board of British Rail to his agency for a pitch. When they arrived they found ashtrays overflowing a stained carpet and a receptionist filing her nails. After being kept waiting half an hour Marsh appeared and told them that now they knew what it felt like to be a British Rail customer…..they won the account and ‘The Age of the Train’ had arrived.

    Not sure I agree with that. He should ave kept them waiting for four hours, given them false information about his progress, blocked up all the toilets and caused the sprinkler system to come on repeatedly while feeding them stale sandwiches and cold tea.

    Then he could have said, 'Now, some of your customers experience this. However, if you are not one of the lucky few in London it's much worse.'
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,574
    nichomar said:

    Boris coming out against the sugar tax today when in an article in the Evening Standard dated 14th January 2016 the headlines state

    'Boris Johnson imposes sugar tax at City Hall'


    And on the day that BBC News leads with obesity overtaking smoking as cause of some cancers
    Hardly a surprise

    Cigarettes suppress appetite, fewer smokers mean more eaters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    nichomar said:

    Alistair said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
    How representative of the members is con home? How many members are not online? I’ve no idea but it could be possible that if their is an issue with the polling it could be down to that.
    ConHome isn’t representative, consisting mostly of the rabid wing (whose views it does appear to represent quite well, as far as one can judge).

    It is more likely that Peston’s sources are weighted towards long-standing members and less so the entryists.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Can anyone explain how members are voting now when ballots aren’t meant to go out until July 6-8th?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,662
    kjohnw said:

    Can anyone explain how members are voting now when ballots aren’t meant to go out until July 6-8th?

    They're Russian to vote?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,259

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
    Nearly up to us; we originally met early in the October of 1959 and while 'the course of true love' didn't flow that smoothly at first we've been (reasonably) happily married for 57 years.
    We both agree that we don't like the Conservatives policies, and we don't trust Johnson.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Alistair said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
    How representative of the members is con home? How many members are not online? I’ve no idea but it could be possible that if their is an issue with the polling it could be down to that.
    ConHome isn’t representative, consisting mostly of the rabid wing (whose views it does appear to represent quite well, as far as one can judge).

    It is more likely that Peston’s sources are weighted towards long-standing members and less so the entryists.
    Absolutely correct. ConHome could easily be renamed BrexitHome or UKIPHome. It is very representative of the more extreme end of the party, but certainly not it's more trad members. It is the equivalent of Momentum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    JackW said:

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
    They don't need to be mutually exclusive. You might be flamboyant to the cameras and damn good at your job behind closed doors.

    Putting to one side her politics Margaret Thatcher was a master. Riding atop a tank whilst handbagging her way through government and opposition with sheer grit, hard work and "boring" attention to detail and facts.

    The LibDems got the attention they wanted and in terms of their REMAIN position they are preeminent in UK politics that has propelled them to a position few of us would has predicted six months ago. It's difficult to argue the politics of the situation even if you dislike the BollocksToBrexit optic.
    Quite.
    And it’s rather unreasonable to expect opposition politicians to make themselves invisible.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,141
    That suggests a deliberate strategy though

    Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,550
    nichomar said:

    Alistair said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
    How representative of the members is con home? How many members are not online? I’ve no idea but it could be possible that if their is an issue with the polling it could be down to that.
    The polling of Tory Councillors basically removes any doubt about my scenario in practice.

    Boris has got this at a canter.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,697
    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037
    Pulpstar said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    Party members don't know who Hunt is ? It's a theory.
    OK, they literally know (or knew) Hunt is Foreign Secretary but not what he stood for, sounded like or whether they'd recognise him if they met him in Lidl. Boris on the other hand is a TV personality with distinctive voice and appearance whose position on Brexit members could infer from his having fronted the Leave campaign.

    Or name recognition.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    Charles said:

    That suggests a deliberate strategy though

    Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance

    Shameless charlatan covers that. He is a liar on top.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    Much as I would like this to be true (and since Hunt is going the full Tory Brexit loon does it really matter who wins anyway?) I expect it's just a typical effort to get the pro Johnson vote out and manage expectations so that his win looks more emphatic. But just for the sake of bantz it would be hilarious if Johnson were to lose - ideally 48-52.

    Yes I thought a 48/52 vote would be ideal for Boris losing. It would be Karma, but sadly I don't think very likely. I will be voting for Hunt through gritted teeth
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually

    It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.

    30 years too this August for me and Mrs Foxy. Good times!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Mr. B2, understandable, because of a weird run a few years ago that saw almost all my Ladbrokes bets win and almost all my Betfair bets lose, I have lopsided accounts and usually keep stuff on Ladbrokes just for the sake of ease.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,037

    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.

    Farage will be lucky to get 1 seat based on his track record, but in any event, the obvious solution is to tweak May's WA to massively extend the transition period to 5 years or 5 centuries. Then we can leave on hallowe'en, and have 5 years/centuries to develop a technical solution to the Irish border before the hated backstop kicks in. QED.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 15,264
    Brilliant long read story on Peru’s recently deceased president:
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/07/08/what-led-perus-former-president-to-take-his-own-life

    Is this a universal phenomenon ?
    He describes him as on the surface full of confidence but, in fact, dogged by uncertainty and obsessed with status. “There was something missing, replaced, as it were, by ambition,” Lauer told me. “García didn’t seem to be completely there. And those who aren’t there tend to make stupendous candidates because people can project onto them whatever they wish.”...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    He'd be an interesting choice for Home Secretary.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    Charles said:

    That suggests a deliberate strategy though

    Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance

    Shameless charlatan covers that. He is a liar on top.

    He is a follower not a leader. He will say or do whatever the crowd tells him will please them. Pathetic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,793
    Foxy said:

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually

    It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.

    30 years too this August for me and Mrs Foxy. Good times!

    We’re July. Congratulations!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,141

    Charles said:

    That suggests a deliberate strategy though

    Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance

    Shameless charlatan covers that. He is a liar on top.

    Shameless I give you, not convinced by charlatan.

    Seems to me that disingenuous, deceitful, perfidious might all be better terms?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,141

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Lord Privy Seal & Party Chairman
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,574

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    He'd be an interesting choice for Home Secretary.
    Minister for Women
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    He'd be an interesting choice for Home Secretary.
    Doesn't that post also require a high attention to detail and a command of one's brief? Or do you think it is the one he is most likely to fall on his face fastest?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,109
    Wishful thinking I fear.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011
    Charles said:

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Lord Privy Seal & Party Chairman
    True. He was too big a risk for Chair(man) on his way up, but on his way down there is little to lose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,109

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    But they dont. Thats what people prefer and they know that
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,777
    Foxy said:

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually

    It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.

    30 years too this August for me and Mrs Foxy. Good times!
    You and your foxy lady .... :blush:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    That suggests a deliberate strategy though

    Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance

    Shameless charlatan covers that. He is a liar on top.

    Shameless I give you, not convinced by charlatan.

    Seems to me that disingenuous, deceitful, perfidious might all be better terms?
    I think charlatan is very accurate. Anyone with any judgement knows that the likelihood is that Boris Johnson doesn't believe in Brexit, he is just playing to the gallery. He will do his best, in his own incompetent way, to deliver it, because he is just following orders. His own family expressed surprise at the side he came down on during the referendum. Since then he has moved to uber-Brexiteer/no-dealer. It defies credibility.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,011

    Mr. B2, understandable, because of a weird run a few years ago that saw almost all my Ladbrokes bets win and almost all my Betfair bets lose, I have lopsided accounts and usually keep stuff on Ladbrokes just for the sake of ease.

    That's what comes of doing all your F1 betting on Betfair? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,109

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Culture secretary.

    But Boris would not accept anything less than a Great Office.

    Though the question shall not arise.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336
    I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079
    kle4 said:

    Wishful thinking I fear.

    It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.

    Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,439

    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.

    What I find admirable (!) is that they rule out all the options and then don't provide any alternative.

    I presume this is because not only do they think the selectorate wazzocks but deaf wazzocks with no listening comprehension ability either.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 4,052
    Charles said:

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Lord Privy Seal & Party Chairman
    Probably the least damaging post he could hold. It would be particularly sweet if the membership had just rejected him. Anyway, back to the real world!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,777

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Leader of the House of Lords .... :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,371
    Mr. B2, still miffed the 8 on Vettel each way (fastest qualifier) had a good chance of success only to come to nought due to the vagaries of fate.

    I did tip the 7.8 winner, though.

    And you, sir, are a scallywag.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,079

    I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.

    Though Magid seems to have had a little difficulty too.


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,417

    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.

    I dunno, 2022 is a long way away, there are a few ways to at least give themselves a fighting chance.

    The obvious one is a referendum. Do WA vs No Deal then put the winner against Remain. That'll probably pass parliament. If it's WA then they win, if it's No Deal then at least what follows isn't entirely their fault, and if it's Remain then that's the end of that, for all but a few enthusiasts.

    Leave people will obviously be hopping mad when they *announce* this, but once the campaign is under way it's the subject matter that matters not the procedure, and once it's done it's done.
  • MangoMango Posts: 286



    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up

    Adulting is so over. Facts and logic left the building more than three years ago. This is an identity argument, and judging by Verhofstadt's response to the t-shirts and the resonance of BtB during the Euro campaign, I'd say the LDs were getting it right.

    No, I don't like it much either.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,431
    kle4 said:

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    But they dont. Thats what people prefer and they know that
    It does seem to be the case that people (present company excepted) don't pay much attention to politics. So a simple message is needed to cut through. The Lib Dems T-shirts helped them do so well in the Euros.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,461

    I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.

    I was very moved by it.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    The 2 membership polls we have had from Yougov had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% a fortnight ago and from ConHome had it Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%.

    I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).

    I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,084

    Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.

    Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.

    They also need to grow up
    Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
    In this case, "the job" is to remain in the EU. So this highly visible statement by the Lib Dem MEPs was very telling.

    The problem is that you Tories expect everybody else to just roll over and do as we are told. In fact, the Conservatives no longer speak for Britain. People throughout the EU can see that very clearly.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,697
    TOPPING said:

    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.

    What I find admirable (!) is that they rule out all the options and then don't provide any alternative.

    I presume this is because not only do they think the selectorate wazzocks but deaf wazzocks with no listening comprehension ability either.
    Sadly too many leavers have been expertly propagandised to believe that the sky is purple and woe betide anyone who claims it isn't.

    In a way it will be most entertaining if we actually do crash out. Whilst I don't expect that the worst apocalyptic predictions will be realised (there is ALWAYS hyperbole), it is a demonstrable fact that the UK will have a significant interruption in its ability to do the basics, and as that reality smashes "its all project fear" merchants in the face their puzzlement will be a joy to watch. And then it turns to anger. Then rage.

    I fear that the rise of the hard right which has been bubbling away for a while will explode. We have all this guff currently about betrayal, but it doesn't mean anything. Once project fear types get their faces smashed in by reality, they won't be admitting the error of their lack of thinking. Instead they will be looking to find the people to blame and punish them. The rise of a Years and Years style demagogue is a very real possibility
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    That Yougov polls has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD and Labour voters and Remainers but Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory voters and we'll ahead of Hunt with Brexit Party voters and Leavers so it is more a case as Yougov has also showed of Hunt winning more LD voters but losing more voters to the Brexit Party and Boris winning more Brexit Party voters but losing more voters to the LDs than any major gulf in electability between them.

    As Yougov has also showed if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the end of October and we are still in the EU by the next general election having extended Article 50 again they are toast regsrdless of which one of them wins
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,413
    HYUFD said:

    The 2 membership polls we have had from Yougov had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% a fortnight ago and from ConHome had it Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%.

    I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).

    I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001

    The quote seems to be saying that this source thinks Boris has a 60% chance of winning, not that he'll get 60% of the votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited July 3
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Wishful thinking I fear.

    It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.

    Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
    Or pass the Withdrawal Agreement as is or with just the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, some Labour MPs like Nandy are switching to it
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 25,141

    Charles said:

    The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.

    Lord Privy Seal & Party Chairman
    Probably the least damaging post he could hold. It would be particularly sweet if the membership had just rejected him. Anyway, back to the real world!
    I was thinking of the Churchill / Cripps discussion 😆
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 63,049
    edited July 3
    Alistair said:

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.

    If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.

    No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.

    ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
    74% were recorded as supporting Boris Johnson. 80% professed to be certain of their decision. This would be a polling miss on an unprecedented scale.
    The only way a miss could happen is if the polls have solely been polling active entryists and missed long term members who are as a block voting Hunt.

    I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
    No as Yougov broke down by pre 2015 members, with whom Boris led only 62% to 38% and post 2017 members with whom Boris led by over 80%.

    In 2015 of course Corbyn did not win pre 2015 Labour members or was tied at best I think but won a landslide with post 2015 members and registered supporters, winning 59.5% overall
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 48,109
    edited July 3
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Wishful thinking I fear.

    It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.

    Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
    Or pass the Withdrawal Agreement as is or with just the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, some Labour MPs like Nandy are switching to it
    You believe Nandy? Given her consistent approach of hinting she would back it then sticking to the party line it seems more likely now she knows it will never come back she can insist she was totally going to back it next time you guys without needing to actually follow through.

    Her record indicates if it were to come back shed find a way not to back it, complaining that the new PM said something rude about labour or something.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 27,336

    TOPPING said:

    Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.

    Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.

    What I find admirable (!) is that they rule out all the options and then don't provide any alternative.

    I presume this is because not only do they think the selectorate wazzocks but deaf wazzocks with no listening comprehension ability either.
    Sadly too many leavers have been expertly propagandised to believe that the sky is purple and woe betide anyone who claims it isn't.

    In a way it will be most entertaining if we actually do crash out. Whilst I don't expect that the worst apocalyptic predictions will be realised (there is ALWAYS hyperbole), it is a demonstrable fact that the UK will have a significant interruption in its ability to do the basics, and as that reality smashes "its all project fear" merchants in the face their puzzlement will be a joy to watch. And then it turns to anger. Then rage.

    I fear that the rise of the hard right which has been bubbling away for a while will explode. We have all this guff currently about betrayal, but it doesn't mean anything. Once project fear types get their faces smashed in by reality, they won't be admitting the error of their lack of thinking. Instead they will be looking to find the people to blame and punish them. The rise of a Years and Years style demagogue is a very real possibility
    There is no chance that the death cult will accept that no deal Brexit was a bad idea. They will simply blame those who implemented it for poor execution (with quislings and saboteurs to mop up the rest of the blame).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,808

    Streeter said:

    PeterC said:

    Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.

    Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
    I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.

    He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it

    Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous

    I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes

    He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
    Not sure your meaning in your comment.

    My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually

    It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.

    Thank you and we do count our blessings day by day
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