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  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
    I don't think there any many cast iron certainties in these febrile times but a successful reunification referendum following NDB leading to the liberation of the six counties is as close to one as can be found,
    Yet another positive outcome in that case.
    The destruction of the tory party and a united Ireland almost make the whole fiasco worth the trouble.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.


    Can you explain the reason why anyone would now vote BXP? I have said before I don’t get them in any case, but I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in voting for a party with one policy that seems to be being delivered by another. Now whilst May was PM and due to her inability to deliver I could see the reason to protest. But now why?

    With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?

    A lot of BXP supporters are not Tories and will not vote Tory - I'd say that is the answer to your first question.

    I don't think No Deal will be stopped unless there is a GE, in which case it might be. I do not see how Johnson gets out of delivering No Deal if he is PM on 31st October.

    I think he will use the appeal of history, with a time limited standstill. He will say something like if our friends in America can put a man on the moon in ten years. Then surely we can with our European friends achieve a technological solution for a border in less. It would help everyone if there was a ban on senior European politicians saying it can’t work and Europe will still take us back. Anyway off to work!
    A time limited standstill looks awfully like the WA to me...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.
    But Boris will be a more effective recruitibg sergeant for Labour than Theresa May ever was.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    rkrkrk said:

    OllyT said:

    Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.

    A Johnson win is very possible, but don't know if Corbyn is such an obstacle to tactical voting. Last time got 40% of the vote while rejecting a 2nd referendum, up against a PM advocating hard Brexit.

    If we have an election in October, he's running a campaign for Ref 2 against a Tory PM who is going for No Deal. I'd expect the logic of Brexit-based tactical voting to be just as strong. Now that will probably benefit the Lib Dems in many seats rather than Labour, but I think tactical voting will be a big factor next time.
    Certainly. I'm sure an "approved list" of anti-Brexit candidates will emerge as soon as the campaign kicks off. And it is pretty likely that Labour would commit itself to Ref2 in its manifesto anyway. Tactical voting would threaten many Tory constituencies held by prominent Brexiters like Uxbridge and Chingford.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    justin124 said:

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
    Let's wait for the Brecon result shall we?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    rkrkrk said:

    OllyT said:

    Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.

    A Johnson win is very possible, but don't know if Corbyn is such an obstacle to tactical voting. Last time got 40% of the vote while rejecting a 2nd referendum, up against a PM advocating hard Brexit.

    If we have an election in October, he's running a campaign for Ref 2 against a Tory PM who is going for No Deal. I'd expect the logic of Brexit-based tactical voting to be just as strong. Now that will probably benefit the Lib Dems in many seats rather than Labour, but I think tactical voting will be a big factor next time.
    Certainly. I'm sure an "approved list" of anti-Brexit candidates will emerge as soon as the campaign kicks off. And it is pretty likely that Labour would commit itself to Ref2 in its manifesto anyway. Tactical voting would threaten many Tory constituencies held by prominent Brexiters like Uxbridge and Chingford.
    Who chooses this approved list?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    rkrkrk said:

    OllyT said:

    Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.

    A Johnson win is very possible, but don't know if Corbyn is such an obstacle to tactical voting. Last time got 40% of the vote while rejecting a 2nd referendum, up against a PM advocating hard Brexit.

    If we have an election in October, he's running a campaign for Ref 2 against a Tory PM who is going for No Deal. I'd expect the logic of Brexit-based tactical voting to be just as strong. Now that will probably benefit the Lib Dems in many seats rather than Labour, but I think tactical voting will be a big factor next time (edit to add, both for and against the Tories).
    I think it was far easier for Corbyn to attract tactical votes in 2017 than it will be next time. In 2017 I don't think people quite realised how pro-Brexit he was nor the extent of the anti-semitism problem.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Foxy said:

    The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.


    Can you explain the reason why anyone would now vote BXP? I have said before I don’t get them in any case, but I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in voting for a party with one policy that seems to be being delivered by another. Now whilst May was PM and due to her inability to deliver I could see the reason to protest. But now why?

    With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?

    A lot of BXP supporters are not Tories and will not vote Tory - I'd say that is the answer to your first question.

    I don't think No Deal will be stopped unless there is a GE, in which case it might be. I do not see how Johnson gets out of delivering No Deal if he is PM on 31st October.

    I think he will use the appeal of history, with a time limited standstill. He will say something like if our friends in America can put a man on the moon in ten years. Then surely we can with our European friends achieve a technological solution for a border in less. It would help everyone if there was a ban on senior European politicians saying it can’t work and Europe will still take us back. Anyway off to work!
    A time limited standstill looks awfully like the WA to me...
    It doesnt have the backstop, nor achieve any of Mays red lines. A different transition.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    kamski said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
    As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
    That is my thinking
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Fenman said:

    justin124 said:

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
    Let's wait for the Brecon result shall we?
    Anecdote alert

    I was chatting to a tory last night whose tory father is 'hopping mad' about Brexit. Said his father is contemplating voting for Corbyn. His reasoning is that he'd rather stomach 5 yrs of Corbyn than this Boris Brexit disaster.

    When I suggested that perhaps, then, the Liberal Democrats were an obvious choice it didn't seem to have occurred.

  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013



    Yet another positive outcome in that case.

    Another? What was the first?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Justin: tomorrows by election result will impact for a few weeks, if the Government loses to the Lib Dems the latters will presumably hold their own over the next month and then go for a one or two Defections attending their conference and then winning any by election at Hallam. If such occur they could keep on the 20% mark or more through till November. Much depends on the result tomorrow. A Conseravtive hold and they will be on their way. Never has so much been dependent on so few, ie the Brecon electorate!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    glw said:

    It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.

    There is no way around this.

    Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.

    Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.

    It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...

    EFTA* with a customs arrangement has been the obvious way ahead since even before the referendum. I honestly think that if the British public would listen to an explanation of what that meant it would be their prefered outcome. It honours the referendum, and the GFA, and we maintain the bits of the EU relationship we like (basically trade), whilst ditching the bits we don't (the social and political stuff).

    Crashing out isn't going to work, revoke won't either, and anyone with a brain can see that. Some compromise is the only way of resolving the issue, unfortunately we are more polarised than ever.

    * It could be a UK-only EFTA clone if necessary.
    That’s basically what May was trying to achieve with her WA and draft FTA.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    Don't shoot me. I am only the messenger
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
    Can we get this right.

    I did not do anything than post a 'BBC business' headline.

    Additionally I do not bet and I have no idea where the currency will be in three months time anymore than anyone else

    It depends on far too many variables
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Dura_Ace said:


    The destruction of the tory party and a united Ireland almost make the whole fiasco worth the trouble.

    A circus tent, somewhere in the late 1960s:

    Corbyn: Tell me, wise seer, what will I be?
    Fortune Teller: I see great things for you, you will become leader of the Labour Party.
    Corbyn: I am humbled. And what will be achieved when I am leader of the Labour Party?
    Fortune Teller: A command economy, a united Ireland and the destruction of the Conservative Party.
    Corbyn: Truly I am blessed. So I will be Prime Minister?
    Fortune Teller: No, the Tories will do all that stuff.
    Good one. Post of the year!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    kamski said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
    As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
    You could say something similar about Trump, but it doesn't mean that Trump and Johnson don't have political aims and attitudes and prejudices beyond their own ambition, and dangerous to think of them as somehow ideologically empty.

    I don't think Johnson wants a deal, he doesn't seem to have left himself much wriggle room, and I can't see what kind of deal won't leave him politically vulnerable on all sides.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    The S&P is up 20% ytd and Trump has still managed to bully the Fed into a rate cut. He's playing for keeps and the Dems really should not underestimate him again just because of their understandable personal disdain.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    kamski said:

    kamski said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
    As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
    You could say something similar about Trump, but it doesn't mean that Trump and Johnson don't have political aims and attitudes and prejudices beyond their own ambition, and dangerous to think of them as somehow ideologically empty.

    I don't think Johnson wants a deal, he doesn't seem to have left himself much wriggle room, and I can't see what kind of deal won't leave him politically vulnerable on all sides.
    Indeed
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited July 2019

    Dura_Ace said:


    The destruction of the tory party and a united Ireland almost make the whole fiasco worth the trouble.

    A circus tent, somewhere in the late 1960s:

    Corbyn: Tell me, wise seer, what will I be?
    Fortune Teller: I see great things for you, you will become leader of the Labour Party.
    Corbyn: I am humbled. And what will be achieved when I am leader of the Labour Party?
    Fortune Teller: A command economy, a united Ireland and the destruction of the Conservative Party.
    Corbyn: Truly I am blessed. So I will be Prime Minister?
    Fortune Teller: No, the Tories will do all that stuff.
    Good one. Post of the year!
    Does it for me (so far).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    What a fucking terrible cartoon. Everything about it is terrible.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A circus tent, somewhere in the late 1960s:

    Corbyn: Tell me, wise seer, what will I be?
    Fortune Teller: I see great things for you, you will become leader of the Labour Party.
    Corbyn: I am humbled. And what will be achieved when I am leader of the Labour Party?
    Fortune Teller: A command economy, a united Ireland and the destruction of the Conservative Party.
    Corbyn: Truly I am blessed. So I will be Prime Minister?
    Fortune Teller: No, the Tories will do all that stuff.

    https://twitter.com/rustinpeace00/status/1156483168972824576
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.

    The September debates should do a lot of winnowing. The criteria are much stricter, they'll probably get the current 20 down to about 10:

    Biden
    Buttigieg
    Harris
    Sanders
    Warren
    Booker
    O'Rourke
    Klobuchar
    Castro
    Yang

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums
    The criteria for getting in the September debates is: at least 2% in the polls and 135,000 donors. So far, only five candidates have qualified: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.

    I think it's unlikely another five candidates will qualify. Of the next five, I think Klobuchar, Yang and O'Rourke are most likely. But it's entirely possible that they all fail to reach the bar.

    Whatever happens, I think we see a host of second and third tier candidates drop out. Simply, if you're not invited to the debates, then you're not really in the race.

    This means there's likely 15-25% (depending on how many people get knocked out) of the Democratic electorate that's up for grabs, and how that splits may determine the nominee. So, if O'Rourke doesn't make it, that's great for Buttigieg. If Klobuchar falls, I think that works to Biden's advantage. If Booker falls, then... wait... does anyone support Booker?
    The Wikipedia chart says Booker and O'Rourke have already qualified. Of the others, KLOBUCHAR has done 120K donors and needs another 10K over August. Even if she's already tapped out all her ex-boyfriends that sounds like something you could do easily over a weekend if you were prepared to spend money on advertising than you raised.

    Castro and Yang both have 3 polls out of the necessary 4, and final poll can be either national or in an early caucus / primary state. US pollsters seem to like doing polls of like 400 people, so for each candidate it's literally a matter of somebody finding a single supporter in a single poll. Which is basically pretty much random if they don't roll any sixes, but we may find some generous politics enthusiast commissions a lot of low-quality polls from approved pollsters in late August...
    I stand corrected,

    My information was out of date.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    Yes, you are right that Brexit is a process not an event but with whom would this putative no deal deal be made? Boris will have to choose quickly between the EU and USA. He can't continue to play off one against the other because they make incompatible demands.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    Not without £39 billion, a solution for NI and guaranteed EU citizens rights there won’t be
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    On topic: Elizabeth Warren's gibe at Delaney was a very good one, and will have gone down well with the target market. Still, it is rather amusing to see her borrowing the Boris line: you only have to 'believe' and the problems will go away.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    Yes, you are right that Brexit is a process not an event but with whom would this putative no deal deal be made? Boris will have to choose quickly between the EU and USA. He can't continue to play off one against the other because they make incompatible demands.
    Of necessity, he will have to seek a swift deal with the EU, and the EU (especially Ireland) will be very keen to do a deal with him. I wonder if this is his plan. No Deal Brexit, very quick GE (before the pain really hurts), then do the deal with his new majority in Parliament.

    It’s a horrific gamble, and maybe impossible, but I’m not sure anything is impossible in politics, any more.


  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
    Can we get this right.

    I did not do anything than post a 'BBC business' headline.

    Additionally I do not bet and I have no idea where the currency will be in three months time anymore than anyone else

    It depends on far too many variables
    Can you post the link to where the BBC mentioned 'rebound.'?

    And can we get this right. This is a betting site. Variables are our metier.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    kamski said:

    kamski said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
    As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
    You could say something similar about Trump, but it doesn't mean that Trump and Johnson don't have political aims and attitudes and prejudices beyond their own ambition, and dangerous to think of them as somehow ideologically empty.

    I don't think Johnson wants a deal, he doesn't seem to have left himself much wriggle room, and I can't see what kind of deal won't leave him politically vulnerable on all sides.
    But no deal would leave him politically dead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
    Can we get this right.

    I did not do anything than post a 'BBC business' headline.

    Additionally I do not bet and I have no idea where the currency will be in three months time anymore than anyone else

    It depends on far too many variables
    Can you post the link to where the BBC mentioned 'rebound.'?

    And can we get this right. This is a betting site. Variables are our metier.
    BBC on line
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nichomar said:

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    Not without £39 billion, a solution for NI and guaranteed EU citizens rights there won’t be
    Yes perhaps. But not certainly.

    No Deal Brexit is so Sui generis one cannot say for sure how it will play out. The Irish might scream in agony and decide to compromise.

    I have no desire for this to happen. It’s terrifying. I’m just sketching out the possible outcomes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    My understanding is there wont be both sides after a no deal, there will be 28 sides as the next steps require ratification at country parliament level?

    So even if the desire/logic is there for a quick deal it wouldnt happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2019
    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pidgeons too.
    Emily Thornberry is doing a Boris.

    Only interested in her own seat and the other London labour elite who are in real danger from the Lib Dems
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    It will be massively harder to reach a deal with the EU after we've left, for multiple reasons:

    1. We'll no longer have the Article 50 mechanism, but instead will have to create a new treaty subject to formal ratification by all 27 EU countries, any one of whom will have a veto: even the Walloon parliament gets a say.

    2. The fact of our crashing out will harden positions on both sides, making compromise even harder.

    3. We'll be negotiating from a position of extreme duress.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kamski said:

    kamski said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
    As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
    You could say something similar about Trump, but it doesn't mean that Trump and Johnson don't have political aims and attitudes and prejudices beyond their own ambition, and dangerous to think of them as somehow ideologically empty.
    .
    It's fun to suggest Boris and the Donald are twins separated at birth but actually there are some fundamental differences.

    The one I want to mention here for now is that I think Trump DOES have an ideology. He's pro-business, pro-protectionism for the US, anti-immigration, anti-bureaucracy and nationalistic.

    I don't think Boris Johnson has one scrap of an ideology. Not one. Really and truly I cannot think of a single thing that he stands for.

    Except himself, of course. And shagging other women.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:


    I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.

    It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.

    We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about

    Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
    He not double-bluffing. As @kamski points out, he is at the very least OK with no deal, and at worst actively seeks it. I am constantly surprised at the number of people who are convinced that he really wants a deal despite the fact that everything he has done since becoming PM has enabled or encouraged no-deal



    All the talk of No Deal apparently presumes that No Deal is an endstate. It isn’t. After we No Deal Brexit we will have to reach some kind of “trading arrangement”. We could call this arrangement a “deal”. The No Deal Deal.

    This No Deal Deal would, I believe, be settled very quickly, as both sides will be in severe pain.
    My understanding is there wont be both sides after a no deal, there will be 28 sides as the next steps require ratification at country parliament level?

    So even if the desire/logic is there for a quick deal it wouldnt happen.
    To which you might have added that the only people thinking No Deal an ‘endstate’ are the no dealers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
    Can we get this right.

    I did not do anything than post a 'BBC business' headline.

    Additionally I do not bet and I have no idea where the currency will be in three months time anymore than anyone else

    It depends on far too many variables
    Can you post the link to where the BBC mentioned 'rebound.'?

    And can we get this right. This is a betting site. Variables are our metier.
    Get carted you cheeky git, Big G can post what he likes. You are not the controller just a jumped up arse.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fenman said:

    justin124 said:

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
    Let's wait for the Brecon result shall we?
    I doubt that seat has much relevance to the national scene in that its dynamics make it a clear Tory v LibDem contest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Brecon poll. Apologies if already posted, I cant see it on here:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1156497362736549889
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds about right although I'd add that too many Conservatives (including here) then fell for blaming DUP inflexibility (often even getting wrong which bit the DUP objected to). The fundamental problem is that after Brexit there has to be a border somewhere and there are no good choices.

    The best chance of Brexit without breaking up the United Kingdom is a massively extended transition period in a May-like deal giving all sides the political cover that they are working on a technical solution to the border problem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited July 2019

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pidgeons too.
    Emily Thornberry is doing a Boris.

    Only interested in her own seat and the other London labour elite who are in real danger from the Lib Dems
    Her position is not in essence different from Corbyn’s. It is a combination of attempting to sit on the fence while playing a game of Twister. An exercise bound to result in self harm of the uncomfortable kind.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    It will be massively harder to reach a deal with the EU after we've left, for multiple reasons:

    1. We'll no longer have the Article 50 mechanism, but instead will have to create a new treaty subject to formal ratification by all 27 EU countries, any one of whom will have a veto: even the Walloon parliament gets a say.

    2. The fact of our crashing out will harden positions on both sides, making compromise even harder.

    3. We'll be negotiating from a position of extreme duress.

    Try believing harder in Brexit, apparently that helps.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited July 2019

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
    One day we will look back on this period of Labour Party politics with complete astonishment (just as we will look at everything else happening right now).

    To put it in perspective, there must be a dozen Labour MPs on the back benches, any of whom, if they became leader, would have Labour ahead in the polls by 10 or 15 points. Instead they have chosen to be led by an elderly Jew hater who has them ten points behind. Remarkable.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Brecon poll. Apologies if already posted, I cant see it on here:

    twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1156497362736549889

    That is two weeks old, hence the reference to "next month" rather than tomorrow.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2019

    Brecon poll. Apologies if already posted, I cant see it on here:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1156497362736549889

    It is not a new poll and events have moved on since the fieldwork between the 10th and 18th July
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Brecon poll. Apologies if already posted, I cant see it on here:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1156497362736549889

    This came out ten days ago!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    Considering early days Theresa May was a success that led to 24 point leads in the polls, being like early May but actually disciplined is not a bad thing. If we can get 24 point leads in the polls, then actually be competent and not throw it away then I'll be happy with that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think he has a plan, the problem is it isn’t very good.

    The plan is to sincerely and genuinely prepare for no deal, in the hope that a terrified EU will then offer us a version of the withdrawal agreement, but without the backstop.

    The plan is to play chicken.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think he has a plan, the problem is it isn’t very good.

    The plan is to sincerely and genuinely prepare for no deal, in the hope that a terrified EU will then offer us a version of the withdrawal agreement, but without the backstop.

    The plan is to play chicken.
    Except we’re in a saloon car with a learner driver at the controls, facing a juggernaut with 27 drivers at the wheel.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Might some journalist ask the PM or FS or Business Secretary whether they agree with this? And if they do, why they are proposing it as a policy?

    https://twitter.com/AcademyOfRock/status/1156121821823012865?s=19
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Byronic said:

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
    One day we will look back on this period of Labour Party politics with complete astonishment (just as we will look at everything else happening right now).

    To put it in perspective, there must be a dozen Labour MPs on the back benches, any of whom, if they became leader, would have Labour ahead in the polls by 10 or 15 points. Instead they have chosen to be led by an elderly Jew hater who has them ten points behind. Remarkable.
    I sincerely doubt Corbyn himself is antisemitic or gives a damn about Jews either way, any more than he has deeply-held views on people who have had their tonsils out. But leaving that aside, are there really that many potential leaders sitting behind him or would it be a similar set of empty suits to the Tory and LibDem successions? I am mildly hopeful they could not be any worse than Corbyn but is there anyone you'd cross the road to hear?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -

    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    Similar to the things that were being said about Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill in 2016.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Cyclefree said:

    Might some journalist ask the PM or FS or Business Secretary whether they agree with this? And if they do, why they are proposing it as a policy?

    https://twitter.com/AcademyOfRock/status/1156121821823012865?s=19

    And a supplementary question: how is it compatible with the current dogma that in the referendum people voted for No Deal?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    It will be massively harder to reach a deal with the EU after we've left, for multiple reasons:

    1. We'll no longer have the Article 50 mechanism, but instead will have to create a new treaty subject to formal ratification by all 27 EU countries, any one of whom will have a veto: even the Walloon parliament gets a say.

    2. The fact of our crashing out will harden positions on both sides, making compromise even harder.

    3. We'll be negotiating from a position of extreme duress.

    1 yes
    2 no - the actors change all the time
    3 who knows ? equally they could be in a german led recession
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think he has a plan, the problem is it isn’t very good.

    The plan is to sincerely and genuinely prepare for no deal, in the hope that a terrified EU will then offer us a version of the withdrawal agreement, but without the backstop.

    The plan is to play chicken.
    Except we’re in a saloon car with a learner driver at the controls, facing a juggernaut with 27 drivers at the wheel.
    Well yes, but that’s also part of the plan. Boris has to look crazy and juvenile enough to go through with it, and not blink. Being the learner driver here is arguably an advantage.

    Personally I’d prefer a quiet retirement to EFTA
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
    One day we will look back on this period of Labour Party politics with complete astonishment (just as we will look at everything else happening right now).

    To put it in perspective, there must be a dozen Labour MPs on the back benches, any of whom, if they became leader, would have Labour ahead in the polls by 10 or 15 points. Instead they have chosen to be led by an elderly Jew hater who has them ten points behind. Remarkable.
    I sincerely doubt Corbyn himself is antisemitic or gives a damn about Jews either way, any more than he has deeply-held views on people who have had their tonsils out. But leaving that aside, are there really that many potential leaders sitting behind him or would it be a similar set of empty suits to the Tory and LibDem successions? I am mildly hopeful they could not be any worse than Corbyn but is there anyone you'd cross the road to hear?
    I sincerely believe Corbyn is an anti-semite.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think he has a plan, the problem is it isn’t very good.

    The plan is to sincerely and genuinely prepare for no deal, in the hope that a terrified EU will then offer us a version of the withdrawal agreement, but without the backstop.

    The plan is to play chicken.
    I think the plan is to be stopped by parliament and then play victim.

    Putting so many ex ministers back on the backbenches should ensure success.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    justin124 said:

    Brecon poll. Apologies if already posted, I cant see it on here:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1156497362736549889

    This came out ten days ago!

    Indeed. And if you halve the BXP Ltd. score and add it to the Tories, you’ll see that it could still be quite close.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think Boris right now is acting more reasonably than May this time last year. The idea that if we seem like we're willing to go through with No Deal then the EU will blink isn't one that I agree with, but it at least makes sense. I can understand why a sane person could believe it. Whereas I can't even begin to understand what the thinking behind May's Chequers strategy was.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    That rather implies Farage is scared of Cummings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
    One day we will look back on this period of Labour Party politics with complete astonishment (just as we will look at everything else happening right now).

    To put it in perspective, there must be a dozen Labour MPs on the back benches, any of whom, if they became leader, would have Labour ahead in the polls by 10 or 15 points. Instead they have chosen to be led by an elderly Jew hater who has them ten points behind. Remarkable.
    I sincerely doubt Corbyn himself is antisemitic or gives a damn about Jews either way, any more than he has deeply-held views on people who have had their tonsils out. But leaving that aside, are there really that many potential leaders sitting behind him or would it be a similar set of empty suits to the Tory and LibDem successions? I am mildly hopeful they could not be any worse than Corbyn but is there anyone you'd cross the road to hear?
    I sincerely believe Corbyn is an anti-semite.
    He doesn't leave much wiggle room to think otherwise, does he?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Fenman said:

    justin124 said:

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
    Let's wait for the Brecon result shall we?
    Anecdote alert

    I was chatting to a tory last night whose tory father is 'hopping mad' about Brexit. Said his father is contemplating voting for Corbyn. His reasoning is that he'd rather stomach 5 yrs of Corbyn than this Boris Brexit disaster.

    When I suggested that perhaps, then, the Liberal Democrats were an obvious choice it didn't seem to have occurred.

    The amount of people that only consider the big two when they're deciding their vote is amusing.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    PeterC said:

    Scott_P said:
    Emily Thornberry's policy is ridiculous beyond words. She seems to be saying that a potential Labour government should negotiate its own Brexit deal and then ask the voters to reject it. It would be more honest to advocate revocation of A50, but that would put the cat among the pigeons too.
    I think Labour are already bloody off the rockers.

    Look at the polling! It is absolutely dire for Opposition at this point in the cycle.

    And everyone knows why it is.
    One day we will look back on this period of Labour Party politics with complete astonishment (just as we will look at everything else happening right now).

    To put it in perspective, there must be a dozen Labour MPs on the back benches, any of whom, if they became leader, would have Labour ahead in the polls by 10 or 15 points. Instead they have chosen to be led by an elderly Jew hater who has them ten points behind. Remarkable.
    I sincerely doubt Corbyn himself is antisemitic or gives a damn about Jews either way, any more than he has deeply-held views on people who have had their tonsils out. But leaving that aside, are there really that many potential leaders sitting behind him or would it be a similar set of empty suits to the Tory and LibDem successions? I am mildly hopeful they could not be any worse than Corbyn but is there anyone you'd cross the road to hear?
    I sincerely believe Corbyn is an anti-semite.
    It is a lot easier to find Boris using racist or Islamophobic terms of abuse than Corbyn using equivalent antisemitic terms. I expect at the next election there will be suitably microtageted reminders flying about from opponents of both sides. Corbyn is against Israel rather than individual Jews, mainly because he is too thick to notice Israel is one of the few countries in the world, let alone the Middle East, where it is safe to join a union and march against the government, let alone be gay or pray to the wrong god.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Might some journalist ask the PM or FS or Business Secretary whether they agree with this? And if they do, why they are proposing it as a policy?

    https://twitter.com/AcademyOfRock/status/1156121821823012865?s=19

    The quote, I believe, came originally from an article by Richard North, addressed to Dominic Cummings -
    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85645
    - which also included this quote from Cummings about holding a second referendum:
    "as a matter of democratic accountability, given the enormous importance of so many issues that would be decided in an Article 50 renegotiation – a far, far bigger deal than a normal election – it seems right to give people a vote on it".

    It also explains why Leave should not adopt (and did not adopt) no deal as part of their leave argument:
    Initially, we will be looking at a slow burn. In what is an arcane field, pro-EU analysts are almost as ignorant as our own. And there is always a possibility that mutual ignorance would cancel out pro- and anti-EU campaigns. But, with this ticking time bomb at the heart of the "no" campaign, it would be unwise to assume that real trade experts will not brief the opposition on the implications of the "WTO option". If that happens, we can expect the FUD to be lethal. The chances of the "no" side winning would quickly recede to nil, especially if the demolition took place in the last weeks of the campaign....
    Which demonstrates exactly how much of a mandate the leave vote was for No Deal.
    Nil.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I don't think the EU will blink if we head toward "No deal", the integrity of the single market is of greater importance than our place within the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Byronic said:

    That rather implies Farage is scared of Cummings.
    All sensible people are, as he seems to lack the wiring in his brain where most of us have moderation, common sense and reasonableness.

    But Farage not being sensible may be scared of him for other reasons.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Scott_P said:
    Brave Sir Boris has shat his pants.

    But this is not a surprise. Johnson does not do scrutiny.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Byronic said:

    That rather implies Farage is scared of Cummings.
    It does indeed. Although surely Farage will be more likely to thrive if Brexit is done via a Deal?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It's all a bit Danton, Robespierre and Marat.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    justin124 said:

    Fenman said:

    justin124 said:

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
    Let's wait for the Brecon result shall we?
    I doubt that seat has much relevance to the national scene in that its dynamics make it a clear Tory v LibDem contest.
    Not everyone is solely interested whether Labour get 220 or 260 MPs. Tory/LD contests probably decide Brexit (assuming we havent left before the GE).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Notable that you didn’t quote this bit -


    “The hand of Cummings is already being felt: there’s more discipline coming from government sources, but then you'd expect that – this is as united as the team is ever going to be – and that is also the whole point of Cummings, to rule with an iron fist.”
    It is also unfair to Theresa May who at least had a plan. Perhaps not a plan that withstood contact with reality in Brussels or Westminster, but a plan nonetheless. It is not clear that Boris does have a plan. He wants a better deal but there has not been much detail, apart from its being, well, better.
    I think he has a plan, the problem is it isn’t very good.

    The plan is to sincerely and genuinely prepare for no deal, in the hope that a terrified EU will then offer us a version of the withdrawal agreement, but without the backstop.

    The plan is to play chicken.
    Except we’re in a saloon car with a learner driver at the controls, facing a juggernaut with 27 drivers at the wheel.
    Well yes, but that’s also part of the plan. Boris has to look crazy and juvenile enough to go through with it, and not blink. Being the learner driver here is arguably an advantage.

    Personally I’d prefer a quiet retirement to EFTA
    Boris is using the Nixon strategy: other side not quite sure he isn't mad.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cyclefree said:
    Cause and effect, perhaps? There are a lot of activists, wonks and hacks who read pb, and some who post here.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    It's all a bit Danton, Robespierre and Marat.
    What happened to Danton, Roberpierre and Marat?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    From BBC Business

    Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows

    Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter

    Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade

    Pound rebounds from 28-month low

    Honestly Big_G, I think calling a 0.1% rise a 'rebound' is pushing it a bit.
    I don't normally bet on currency markets but I'm prepared to bet a tenner with BIG G that the pound will be lower than its current value one month from now. My point being, that claiming a 0.1% rise at 9.55am, which has already evaporated, really pays no attention to the short and medium sterling trend. Which we all should know ... is south.
    Can we get this right.

    I did not do anything than post a 'BBC business' headline.

    Additionally I do not bet and I have no idea where the currency will be in three months time anymore than anyone else

    It depends on far too many variables
    Can you post the link to where the BBC mentioned 'rebound.'?

    And can we get this right. This is a betting site. Variables are our metier.
    BBC on line
    Where? Can you post the link please. I follow the BBC carefully and haven't seen any such comment this morning about the pound rebounding.

    I notice that Malcolmg has risen up in your support (presumably still not forgiving me for calling him out over his SNP-driven hatred of all things Jo Swinson) but if you're going to post something as fact, and then castigate others on here for questioning your position and stating 'don't shoot me, I'm only the messenger' you need to be sure of your facts.

    So can we take it that, in fact, the BBC did not report that the pound has "rebounded?" I'd genuinely like you to correct me. So please do.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    Scott_P said:
    Brave Sir Boris has shat his pants.

    But this is not a surprise. Johnson does not do scrutiny.

    Fortunately there is prime ministers questions where he is obliged to answer forensic questions from a sharp minded leader of the oppostion......
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Scott_P said:
    Brave Sir Boris has shat his pants.

    But this is not a surprise. Johnson does not do scrutiny.

    "It is complete balderdash. It is an inverted pyramid of piffle. It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel."

    :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Cyclefree said:

    Might some journalist ask the PM or FS or Business Secretary whether they agree with this? And if they do, why they are proposing it as a policy?

    https://twitter.com/AcademyOfRock/status/1156121821823012865?s=19

    And a supplementary question: how is it compatible with the current dogma that in the referendum people voted for No Deal?
    It’s not.
    Particularly not if you read the full article it came from.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    It's all a bit Danton, Robespierre and Marat.
    So they will all meet a grisly end in the near future? Politically anyway, one assumes they will not be publicly guillotined......
This discussion has been closed.