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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide
If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Amish_population
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have more Amish population than the margin Trump won the states by IIRC. Some of the population might not be of voting age but in incredibly close election contests given the number of voters in these three states they could be pivotal if they vote for Trump or decide to sit it out.
So Iowa may not prove that crucial this time. Although it will eliminate several no-hopers. It will be important to establish momentum, and to point to a front runner in each "lane".
Mayor Pete is the resident mid-Westerner, so I agree he could do well. But he HAS to.
Bernie has New Hampshire coming up, his neighbouring State.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses
https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/iowa-racially-homogeneous-but-politically-diverse/
A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
(net unacceptable)
Wales +58
N Ireland +51
Scotland +44
South of England +30
Midlands +25
North of England +21
London +19
SNP-voters +88
Lib Dem-voters +82
PC-voters +62
Green-voters +53
Lab-voters +36
Con-voters -12
Brexit Party-voters -94
UK total +28
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/10/queen-reportedly-dismayed-current-political-classs-inability/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa
Night all.
If Harrison Ford was on the ballot however ...
This being the case, both of those parties are going to get fewer seats than Baxter calculates.
In the same poll on Q306 it asks 'If Boris is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement before October 31st what should he do?'
46% say Leave the EU with No Deal.
12% say Delay Brexit until a further Deal can be agreed with the House of Commons.
29% say Cancel Brexit and decide to Remain in the EU after all.
So No Deal is on more than further extension and Revoke and Remain combined across the UK.
In the Midlands 50% back No Deal, in the North 48% back No Deal and in the South and Wales 49% back No Deal ie more than the UK average.
Even in Scotland an astonishing 37% now back going straight to No Deal, more than the 32% who back Revoke. Only in London and Northern Ireland is Revoke preferred to No Deal by 36% to 34% and 38% to 37% respectively.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
So. The key is getting back the c 3.7 m voters who didn't vote for Hilary or Obama in '12. And where they come from of course...
The Dems have won the popular vote 6 out of the last 7. But only 4 of the EC.
People go to a precinct meeting, there are 1600 of them, and they have a discussion about the contenders and then there is voting with, I'm told, backers of the different contenders clustering in different parts of the room or counting.
Incidentally Warren is not an Ivory tower East coaster. She was born and raised in Oklahoma, moving away when she married aged 20.
Surely something wrong there.
https://twitter.com/katehoeymp/status/1160651530623750144
Do you have a link?
So, 2020, Elizabeth Warren. QED.
52% of Londoners find No Deal unacceptable.
33% of Londoners find No Deal acceptable.
Net unacceptable +19
(Table V401)
Possibly Boris and Priti could make use of their extra prison places this way.
I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
"Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"
And Jezza says:
"Thanks Boris. Your on"
And voila!
1) Obama 2008.
2) Obama 2012.
3) Hilary 2016.
Jezza will agree because how could he not... And off we go.
One small point. iirc Iowa will allow Internet virtual attendance at the caucus (for the first time). So no more snow walking for some voters. Could up the vote rate?
We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
No, if Boris makes him the offer of a GE I can't see him pissing about making demands.
Now it seems to be the plan.
You will reap what you sow.
But iirc Johnson decides the date.
It would be 1st November or afterwards.
Of course Corbyn then gets what he wants - a Tory No Deal.
Which was my point. You have to answer a completely different set of questions. There is no sign that anyone of those parties have put a great deal of thinking into what comes next.
If two thirds of MPs were willing to do that, why would he need to have an immediate election at all?
But in another way it isn't.
To have no one on the tiller as the ship is at the stormiest part of the passage is insane. It guarantees even greater uncertainty as no one could predict the election outcome, or the Brexit outcome. It is the worst possible way to Brexit.
This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.
Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.
Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
This from the supposedly friendly WaPo...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-descend-on-iowa--with-renewed-anxiety/2019/08/10/18e02624-baad-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html
Such episodes give some Democrats pause. As Arlene Davis, 67, a retired schoolteacher from Indianola, waited to hear Biden speak the other night, she panned his candidacy so far, especially his debate performances.
“I was extremely disappointed. I expect more of him. He was uninspired,” she said. “He’s trying to ride Obama’s coattails instead of blazing his own path to distinguish himself from others. Gee, it was nice he was vice president. However, he is not vice president now, and if he wants to stand out, he has to do it soon, on his own two feet.” Davis added: “I want to know what he thinks, not what he did with Obama. That’s why I’m here.”...
The 78% comes from a question which starts by saying that Johnson wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and then asks what should happen if he is unable to. I'm sure the difference in emphasis is enough to account for the discrepancy of 5% between that figure and the 37% unacceptable (which oddly includes 23% who think it would be "somewhat" unacceptable).
If he wins on that then fair enough, the country has effectively voted for No Deal.
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1159758098887860224
In any event, Johnson would be totally mad to have No Deal happen during the campaign - he must be aware there is at least a small chance (I think a large chance) for some serious and unpleasant disruption to occur at the point of a No Deal crash-out.
Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
No evidence that the LDs will have a unified position on Rejoin. Most people are heartily sick of hearing about it. Re-opening the question for another 5 years is not likely to be spectacularly successful.
Meanwhile, Corbyn will blame all issues/problems on "botched Tory Brexit", while actually having some policies to appeal to a large sector of the Brexit vote.
If that is the Tory plan, I think it is nuts. Especially if the fruit of Brexit is large tax cuts for the well off.
I think if I were Johnson I wouldn't want to put too many obstacles in the way of that happening. Just enough to be convincing.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1151669588808986624
The LDs will not be getting 20+ Tory seats on that Tory voteshare or anywhere near