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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    All of them ?
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited August 2019
    Second but not sure like who
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Looking good for a squeeze.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,883
    edited August 2019
    Well they are the 20 closest LD and CON constituencies, so we should not be surprised that the overall difference will be less than the margin of sampling error.

    And for all we know it could be a 10% lead in one marginal with a half a percent deficit in 19 others.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Oooooooooooooops

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1161356747535261699
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    Shy Leavers? Leavers won't talk to pollsters because they're "part of the elite conspiracy against Brexit"? False recall?

    Hard to know why, but there's potential for the polls to be very wrong as a result.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    rkrkrk said:

    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1161358107605393408?s=21
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    So on these figures the LibDems would gain ten or a dozen Tory seats. Maybe a couple more with tactical voting.

    Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew said:

    Oooooooooooooops

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1161356747535261699

    How's that a fucking exclusive? It has been all over everywhere all day.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    SandyRentool said:

    So on these figures the LibDems would gain ten or a dozen Tory seats. Maybe a couple more with tactical voting.

    Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.

    I’m sure HY will be along to provide his interpretation of the poll which shows a Tory majority of 30
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    edited August 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,336
    Gallowgate said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1161358107605393408?s=21
    The Lib Dems are willing to work with Labour, they're just not prepared to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister. Putting aside the reasons why, morally, that's a pretty sound stance, there's another very good reason - saying so would harm their chances in those marginals far more than it would boost it as they need to win Tory remainers (as well as Labour exiles) who hate one thing as much as Brexit, and it's something with a beard that and a penchant for marrows that's not especially welcome in Golders Green.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Recession Watch: 1/???

    The US BLS releases data on Job Openings in its JOLTS survey. Alongside PMIs and the yield curve, this has been an excellent early warning recession sign.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm

    Private sector job openings are now falling, and are now down year-over-year.

    Now, the JOLTS survey is imperfect. It can show volatility. Nevertheless, it is yet another piece in the puzzle suggesting that the world economy is slowing markedly.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Chris said:

    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.

    I think that's broadly correct. I'd like to see what the top twenty are, and whether there are any particular trends inside the twenty that could allow us to extrapolate whether we're looking at five gains, or fifteen.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    Sanders is in the low teens in Iowa, barely above Buttigieg.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
  • Options
    oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    Why would the Labour vote be squeezed more than the Brexit vote?
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    NickPalmer said:

    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
    And it's his next door state.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW
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    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    oldpolitics said:

    Why would the Labour vote be squeezed more than the Brexit vote?

    They got squeezed down to deposit territory in B&R
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Omnium said:

    How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Not clear, obviously.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Gallowgate said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
    You inspired me to research my own constituency.

    1. SNP maj 4000
    2. Lab - willing to collaborate with SNP
    3. Tory - unionist
    x.(lets's see how they poll) Brexit - unionist

    Could be my first ever Tory vote. It's Ms Brisk who is nearing the official age of voting tory - not me.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    Cannot have been that clear.

    Michael Gove thought Mrs May's deal honoured the referendum result, Boris Johnson said it didn't.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
    You inspired me to research my own constituency.

    1. SNP maj 4000
    2. Lab - willing to collaborate with SNP
    3. Tory - unionist
    x.(lets's see how they poll) Brexit - unionist

    Could be my first ever Tory vote. It's Ms Brisk who is nearing the official age of voting tory - not me.
    LD's lost their deposit last time btw
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
  • Options
    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Then
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is certainly no mandate for Remain and No Deal Brexit is the default option so doesn't need a mandate. If the parties involved can't agree a deal then .......
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Tbh, that's a poor result for the Lib Dems, they want to be at least 6-8 points ahead in the marginals by now.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    NickPalmer said:

    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
    Yep. Margin error is 6%
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1161370717960712193
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited August 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.

    I think that's broadly correct. I'd like to see what the top twenty are, and whether there are any particular trends inside the twenty that could allow us to extrapolate whether we're looking at five gains, or fifteen.
    Here's the Lib Dem marginals list - I guess they went down as far as Torbay. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Gallowgate said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    It might have under Party List

    GE2015
    Con 36.8
    +
    UKIP 12.6

    =49.4pc
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    Says who?

    You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

    Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
  • Options
    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    Says who?

    You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

    Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
    It would have been a Tory-UKIP coalition in 2015 under PR (if the % votes were the same)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    So in other words you’re demanding an outcome that no one campaigned for. As I said, no mandate.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
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    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1161328949688971264
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AlastairMeeks said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    So in other words you’re demanding an outcome that no one campaigned for. As I said, no mandate.
    I want an acceptable deal. I don't demand an outcome. If we leave without a deal it will be largely down to Remainers who don't want to leave whether there's a deal or not. Where's the mandate for throwing your toys out of the pram?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

    If it is the same article as the Telegraph did two days ago then towards the end the journalist notes that Calais is under pressure from transfers of freight to Hull and other eastern ports that avoid the whole Kent/M2/Marston clusterfuck.

    So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Thank you - you prove my point. Tosh.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dgrMSTalZ0
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Torby_Fennel said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
    Labour would mount a serious campaign in St Albans given that it held the seat 1997 - 2005.
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,074
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    rottenborough said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

    If it is the same article as the Telegraph did two days ago then towards the end the journalist notes that Calais is under pressure from transfers of freight to Hull and other eastern ports that avoid the whole Kent/M2/Marston clusterfuck.

    So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...
    Or finer and dandier.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Anyone can be a Wikipedia editor
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1161374663584440320
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
    Leavers blocked the deal. They can’t then insist on no deal. They have rejected what they had the mandate for.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
    Nobody's called you Traitors - And have you seen the words you use to describe us?????

    It's you that's on the bullying side I'm afraid.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Chris said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
    Star Wars Remainers seem to be quite a Force.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
    Leavers blocked the deal. They can’t then insist on no deal. They have rejected what they had the mandate for.
    Over 400 MPs blocked the deal, are you saying they were all leavers?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
    It's not done. But if South Sudan mk 2 does appear on England's doorstep I agree it will be wanky.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    So if Boris Johnson jumped off a cliff would you follow?

    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Apparently the party that came 10th should actually be in the top 4. Go figure?

    Maybe he wants one of your famous bar charts to suggest that 10th is actually top 4.
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,074
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
    It's not done. But if South Sudan mk 2 does appear on England's doorstep I agree it will be wanky.
    I'm not getting the South Sudan mk2 thingy.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
    Remainer MPs rejected an orderly exit deal 3 times. ERG was irrelevant as were the other Tory rebels.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
    Why when he came 10th?
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Can you hear me Iowa?

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1161366775226720256

    Go Pete!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    ReggieCide said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    So if Boris Johnson jumped off a cliff would you follow?
    Only if while cheering and laughing I stepped too close to the edge.

    (I agree entirely with your second point. Anyone who voted against May's deal is definitely deserving of ordure should we end up leaving without one.)
  • Options
    JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Anyone can be a Wikipedia editor
    So? If I change it so Farage's photo is up there it will just be changed back by the wiki elite.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1161376502581211136

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1161376499821420550
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Benpointer said:

    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
    Nope. The Top 4 were as follows:

    Con 330 seats
    Lab 232 seats
    SNP 56 seats
    LDs 8 seats
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Celtic = LOL
This discussion has been closed.