I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
It won’t happen on the day beions over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or BroParty?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
Most of those seats were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron at least once, they are true marginal seats, mainly Leave voting, not safe Labour seats
And if I say I think the polling is as unbelievable as those giving May 20+ leads, bunged up with new leader bounce and labours mess at the Euro’s yet to unwind? As soon as the snap election is called, Boris, his government, Cummings grid of daily unbelievable giveaways all gets elbowed aside as all the opposition parties get their oxygen of publicity and heardtoo, remain parties relentlessly hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit. By the end of the campaign thing households will dread above all else is Boris No Deal, they no longer see Corbyn on the ballot, just returning their nice moderate Labour MP. Meanwhile, will Boris be reporting progress in negotiation to win votes? Farage would be insisting Clean Break brexit is the only true brexit, so what is Johnson’s negotiation all about if not a con trick and sell out, so to what impact will votes for Farage have in what you call marginals (though many haven’t been marginal for a while!).
May lost her lead in 2017 mainly due to the dementia tax gaffe etc Boris will not repeat, Boris is also a far better campaigner than she was.
As the polling showed at the weekend with Survation 52% of voters back Boris' plan for Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop, only 40% backed revoke and remain and only 41% backed extension. Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?
He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.
Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?
Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.
We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
That does not follow in a Hung Parliament given the possibility of another Government being formed.That was not the case in April 2017.
That's why I said "unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference."
If the election were held on 17th October could the UK ask for an "add on" to the summit, so that instead of running over 17th and 18th October it went from 17th to 19th or 17th to 20th?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
The sad thing is that the fate of the country might be in the hands of Farage. By being continually indistinct in what he thinks 'Brexit' means, he has been able to marshal a useful percentage of the population behind himself (hence the BXP). He is the Kingmaker - any Brexit he doesn't like will not be Brexit, and they will follow him.
By being unclear about what Brexit is - only what it is not - he has given himself enormous power. He has millions of proxy votes to put where he wants.
I'd venture a guess that the main determinant of the success or otherwise of the Tory campaign will indeed be where the Brexit Party's support comes from. If it's largely at the expense of the Conservatives then it could be very costly, but if the Tories' leave-leaning voters decide mostly to back Boris, and the Brexit Party's support therefore comes mainly from never-Tory Labour leave voters then Farage's outfit could be a huge asset in a whole swathe of Lab-Con marginals. We simply don't know.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
You have put your finger on it. So hope you washed straightaway.
But yes - if you are running on a softhead populist ticket you MUST get almost all the softhead populist vote otherwise it's curtains.
The other key question for me is, does the fact that Remainers are on the whole more highly educated than Leavers mean that they will vote tactically smarter in a Brexit GE?
Right now my feeling is that Toxic Clown beats Magic Grandpa in this October election.
Hmmm, we don't know about the potential for tactical voting either - and it does rather depend on an awful lot of the more committed kind of Remain voters holding their noses and continuing to back Labour, even though such educated personages presumably don't trust Jeremy "seven, or seven-and-a-half out of ten" Corbyn, and would rather opt for a Lib Dem - if only they stood half-a-chance in their neck of the woods. We also don't know whether all the extra young voters Corbyn attracted last time around will stick with him or leave out of disillusionment, either to sit on their hands or go over to the Lib Dems or Greens. So, there's so much up in the air.
And, of course, the Tory campaign will not be focussed solely on the "softhead populist" vote. There's also the "I don't want everything I own to be confiscated by John McDonnell" vote, and the all-important OAP vote. If Johnson has any sense at all, and whatever other failings the man has he doesn't appear to be completely stupid, he will strew the paths from pensioners' front doors to the polling stations with banknotes. Certainly one suspects that a re-run of the Dementia Tax debacle is unlikely...
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
Indeed. I said from the beginning that he wanted Parliament to turn him over, so he could go to the country playing victim. Nothing so far suggests otherwise.
Like others on here I'm expecting to see an accelerated version of the 2017 GE now. Johnson has been so divisive that I can't see him picking up many votes May didn't get before. He'll have a resurgent Farage to deal with, counterbalanced by the Lib Dems coming back from the dead. The Conservatives might pick up seats in the Midlands from Labour, but there's a good chance they lose some in the SE / SW to the LDs and the SNP in Scotland to balance it out. I simply can't see the Northern Labour safe seats ever voting Conservative in enough numbers to make a difference - some will have significant votes for Farage, but given the majorities I don't see many going blue. We could end up with a very regionalised Parliament that's even more hung than at present.
Also slightly surprised to not see Djanogly listed as a member of the Rebel Alliance, particularly given what he's been Tweeting in the last two days. Maybe he's hoping to dodge the deselection squads (or being held in reserve in case others fold). Hopefully he'll be able to stand as a Conservative again, there's no way any other party will win here and I'd rather have him as my MP than a Hancock clone.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
That's my theory. If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win, but those damn inconvenient BXPers could take down Brexit because they don't like or trust what Boris may do, even after he tries as hard as possible to prove his Brexiteer credentials.
It is astonishing, literally astonishing, the complacency of some anti Tory, anti Brexit posters on here.
The Brexit party has been slashed down to just 12% to 14% in the 3 latest polls by Boris with the Tories on 31 to 35% ie about 20% ahead of the Brexit Party.
Yet in those same polls the LDs are on 18 to 21%, less than 5% behind Corbyn Labour on 22% to 24%.
At the moment it is the Remain vote split down the middle between Labour and LD under FPTP, NOT the Leave vote
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
If they get 5% then you have to ask who that 5% are, when the BXP were polling 15-20% recently.
I think the 15% who genuinely want Brexit to get over the line have gone or will go to the Tories.
I think the 5% leftover in BXP are never-Tories anyway. People in the past who may have voted Labour, or BNP, or even Lib Dems. Recalcitrant none-of-the-aboves and people who hate Tories. If the BXP stood down there is no guarantee these wouldn't have just gone Labour or anyone else rather than Tory.
This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
*Raise hands*
I believe it. I think if the Tories get a handsome majority in October then the EU will swallow their pride and agree to a transition without preconditions and agree to deal with the Irish border during transition. As should have happened from the start.
I do wonder if tonight those independents and some labour mps may decide they fear losing their careers and go absent tomorrow or even vote against
I assume Hoey will be against but what if there are more who mean the bill is lost as will be all those conservatives rebels to their party
Now that would be an irony
I assume they have the numbers.
By the way, those Conservative MPs putting country before party and before their own careers deserve to be applauded right across the political spectrum. History will be very kind to them.
And I thought your comments on here earlier Big G about how it might all play out were very astute. I really hope that after an election in 6 weeks we can put together some kind of government to negotiate a fair minded compromise Brexit deal and/or put this back to the people and allow us to move on to more pressing matters, like schools, transport, inequality, the NHS, social mobility, the climate crisis, you name it.
Thank you and I agree
Indeed when cooler heads get together a GE is the only way forward and is the biggest test of democracy available. I think quite a few posters would join us in wishing a new HOC well in the principal need of beginning the healing of the nation
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
Day this thing kicks off you should publish your list of Tory gains, and PB can keep an eye on it as the HY-ometer (tm)
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
It is astonishing, literally astonishing, the complacency of some anti Tory, anti Brexit posters on here.
The Brexit party has been slashed down to just 12% to 14% in the 3 latest polls by Boris with the Tories on 31 to 35% ie about 20% ahead of the Brexit Party.
Yet in those same polls the LDs are on 18 to 21%, less than 5% behind Corbyn Labour on 22% to 24%.
At the moment it is the Remain vote split down the middle between Labour and LD under FPTP, NOT the Leave vote
Are you confident that the polling will be stable between now and an election 6 weeks away? Has the recent volatility not given you pause to think that there are many possible outcomes from here?
The relationship between vote share and seats won will probably be smaller at this election than at any previous one. 33% might win the Tories a majority, 40% might not. The swing calculators won't be much use.
Presumably it's a restriction of the FTPA. From what I recall (I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) it needs 25 working days from calling an election to the vote itself.
Like others on here I'm expecting to see an accelerated version of the 2017 GE now. Johnson has been so divisive that I can't see him picking up many votes May didn't get before.
It's going to be a right laugh watching the Tories attempt to attack Labour's spending plans. Nor can they run the old "Corybn's a nutter" without attracting similar retorts. Basically it's going to be vote Tory for the worst kind of Brexit, and even there the Brexit Party will be claiming it's not Brexity enough.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
That's my theory. If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win, but those damn inconvenient BXPers could take down Brexit because they don't like or trust what Boris may do, even after he tries as hard as possible to prove his Brexiteer credentials.
It is astonishing, literally astonishing, the complacency of some anti Tory, anti Brexit posters on here.
My words:
If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win
Astonishing is right.
BXP don't need to poll as high as the LDs to cause damage to the Tories. You may be right that they poll low enough that they won't damage the Tories sufficiently to help the remain parties. I also stated that as a possibility. Boris's gamble might work.
There are plenty of people who think Boris might well win, even if they think other scenarios are also possible, and you treat them the same as if they said he has no chance. Arrogance personified.
Corbyn having a Kinnock Sheffeld rally moment 1992 by the looks of things and we all know how that turned out!
History does not necessarily repeat itself, especially when the situation is only marginally similar.
It does when Corbyn is even more unpopular than Kinnock
People were saying that sort of thing in May 2017. We are in unprecedented times, and an election campaign in such circumstances - and with modern media and communications - is long.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
That means if it turns out to be correct, then HYUFD is a true sage ...
We have to be careful with HYUFD. He correctly predicted PM Boris and the time and date of prorogue of Parliament. He may be correct on this. Who knows
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
*Raise hands*
I believe it. I think if the Tories get a handsome majority in October then the EU will swallow their pride and agree to a transition without preconditions and agree to deal with the Irish border during transition. As should have happened from the start.
You think that the optics of Cummings deselecting people like Philip Hammond and Rory Stewart right at the start of the election campaign are going to be good? I don't believe that Johnson is a shoe-in in a No Deal election. If that is what the election turns out to be all about my family will probably vote tactically for Labour in our Lab-Con marginal despite having fully intended to vote LD up to the last few days. It's going to be interesting.
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
Day this thing kicks off you should publish your list of Tory gains, and PB can keep an eye on it as the HY-ometer (tm)
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
As of today I would estimate 40 Tory gains from Labour, 15 Tory losses to the LDs and 10 Tory losses to the SNP making a net Tory gain of 15 seats to give a Tory overall majority of 14.
If Johnson does win, I'm not looking forward to the "And you thought the Tories couldn't win!" posts when lots of us have said it's entirely possible they could win.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
That means if it turns out to be correct, then HYUFD is a true sage ...
We have to be careful with HYUFD. He correctly predicted PM Boris and the time and date of prorogue of Parliament. He may be correct on this. Who knows
Indeed. Although I would still point out that treating ConHome 'surveys' as polls is wrong and dangerous. Things can be right for the wrong reasons.
I’m genuinely pissed off that an election is being touted for a Monday - a Monday! Who wants to get pissed and stay up all night on a bloody Monday? For that egregious crime alone, the odious clown Johnson deserves to lose.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
That's my theory. If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win, but those damn inconvenient BXPers could take down Brexit because they don't like or trust what Boris may do, even after he tries as hard as possible to prove his Brexiteer credentials.
This could well be when his history of lying and untrustworthiness catch up with him. If I were a BXP voter I wouldn't trust to do what says for a moment.
Everyone should get creative in the Brexit debacle. Let Boris set an election date after 31 October, then remainers win and change us to the Julian calendar to declare we never left after all as it is not 31 October yet.
The relationship between vote share and seats won will probably be smaller at this election than at any previous one. 33% might win the Tories a majority, 40% might not. The swing calculators won't be much use.
Sage words, although it has often been thus in the past. IIRC, Blair won a majority of 60-odd in 2005 with 35% of the vote, whereas May won the opportunity to negotiate a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Arlene Foster in 2017 with 42% of the vote.
You just don't know with our system. It's basically a lottery.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
That means if it turns out to be correct, then HYUFD is a true sage ...
We have to be careful with HYUFD. He correctly predicted PM Boris and the time and date of prorogue of Parliament. He may be correct on this. Who knows
Indeed. Although I would still point out that treating ConHome 'surveys' as polls is wrong and dangerous. Things can be right for the wrong reasons.
If Johnson does win, I'm not looking forward to the "And you thought the Tories couldn't win!" posts when lots of us have said it's entirely possible they could win.
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
Day this thing kicks off you should publish your list of Tory gains, and PB can keep an eye on it as the HY-ometer (tm)
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
As of today I would estimate 40 Tory gains from Labour, 15 Tory losses to the LDs and 10 Tory losses to the SNP making a net Tory gain of 15 seats to give a Tory overall majority of 14.
What about Tory losses to Independents who get booted out by Bozo for doing exactly what he did twice over?
Of course, if there is a General Election on October 14th then I expect a steady stream of Battle of Hastings jokes. Certainly one would expect events to develop not necessarily to Amber Rudd's advantage...
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
It won’t happen on the day beions over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or BroParty?
On the current swing predicted seats to fall to the Tories.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
Most of those seats were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron at least once, they are true marginal seats, mainly Leave voting, not safe Labour seats
And if I say I think the polling is as unbelievable as those giving May 20+ leads, bunged up with new leader bounce and labours mess at the Euro’s yet to unwind? As soon as the snap election is called, Boris, his government, Cummings grid of daily unbelievable giveaways all gets elbowed aside as all the opposition parties get their oxygen of publicity and heardtoo, remain parties relentlessly hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit. By the end of the campaign thing households will dread above all else is Boris No Deal, they no longer see Corbyn on the ballot, just returning their nice moderate Labour MP. Meanwhile, will Boris be reporting progress in negotiation to win votes? Farage would be insisting Clean Break brexit is the only true brexit, so what is Johnson’s negotiation all about if not a con trick and sell out, so to what impact will votes for Farage have in what you call marginals (though many haven’t been marginal for a while!).
May lost her lead in 2017 mainly due to the dementia tax gaffe etc Boris will not repeat, Boris is also a far better campaigner than she was.
As the polling showed at the weekend with Survation 52% of voters back Boris' plan for Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop, only 40% backed revoke and remain and only 41% backed extension. Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
May lost her lead, but not her vote. That remained pretty much as it was when the election started. What happened was that Remain supporters flocked to Labour as the party best-placed to stop the Tories. We’ll see if it happens again.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
That means if it turns out to be correct, then HYUFD is a true sage ...
We have to be careful with HYUFD. He correctly predicted PM Boris and the time and date of prorogue of Parliament. He may be correct on this. Who knows
True, but predicting the electorate is a different challenge to predicting the Tory party.
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
*Raise hands*
I believe it. I think if the Tories get a handsome majority in October then the EU will swallow their pride and agree to a transition without preconditions and agree to deal with the Irish border during transition. As should have happened from the start.
And if you are wrong in your belief?
Life goes on. I'm not a mystic, nobody is right all the time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
The thing to remember about the next election is that both Labour and Tory will be losing a lot of votes as compared to 2017. what matters is where they lose them. Do the tories lose most of their votes in safe seats to the brexit party, if so they don't lose too many to labour but could gain a lot depending where Labour loses it's votes.
It's not possible to predict particular gains/losses accurately because we don't know the detail enough about how the votes will be lost.
I'd venture a guess that the main determinant of the success or otherwise of the Tory campaign will indeed be where the Brexit Party's support comes from. If it's largely at the expense of the Conservatives then it could be very costly, but if the Tories' leave-leaning voters decide mostly to back Boris, and the Brexit Party's support therefore comes mainly from never-Tory Labour leave voters then Farage's outfit could be a huge asset in a whole swathe of Lab-Con marginals. We simply don't know.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
I don't think that's right re: Brecon. I've got it on good authority that the Ystradgynlais boxes which had previously been Labour went to the Lib Dems in a big way; would probably have been in recount territory otherwise. So I don't see any comfort for the Tories there, I'm afraid.
Many yonks ago, I read a story - I can't remember the source, or whether it was factual or fiction. (If anyone knows, I'd love to hear).
In the 1960s, a company was bidding for a computer system on the Apollo program. They look at the specification and came up with a proposal. When the presentation day came, they had all their management and salesmen in the room.
They were surprised when the NASA contingent arrived. There were a couple of suits, but all the rest were engineers wearing pocket-protectors. The NASA contingent listened to the presentation - which was very good - and when the 'do you have any questions?' section came up, a junior engineer stood up and asked:
"How does it fail?"
NASA assumed the company would get something that worked to spec: if they didn't, testing would show. What they were really concerned about were the failure modes, edge and corner cases: what happened if something went wrong - would it knock out other systems that would cause a mission failure?
And that's what people producing long and convoluted ways out of the Brexit mess - on both sides - are missing. What happens if it goes wrong? What happens if it doesn't go quite the way I hope? What if fate throws the curved ball I didn't expect?
Like others on here I'm expecting to see an accelerated version of the 2017 GE now. Johnson has been so divisive that I can't see him picking up many votes May didn't get before.
It's going to be a right laugh watching the Tories attempt to attack Labour's spending plans. Nor can they run the old "Corybn's a nutter" without attracting similar retorts. Basically it's going to be vote Tory for the worst kind of Brexit, and even there the Brexit Party will be claiming it's not Brexity enough.
Apparently all of this is "genius".
The Tory spending offer is concentrated on health, education and police.
Labour will be left to campaign on "we agree with that, and let's spend lots more money on cancelling student loans, renationalising the railways and the water companies."
On the BBC Katya Adler is clear that, from the EU point of view, the weakness in the UK bargaining position is not the threat of parliament stopping no deal, but our utter lack of a decent alternative to the backstop
If Johnson does win, I'm not looking forward to the "And you thought the Tories couldn't win!" posts when lots of us have said it's entirely possible they could win.
Well, we all make howlers. OGH had a post saying he'd put down good money that Theresa May would still be here this year end. Ooooops.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
The thing to remember about the next election is that both Labour and Tory will be losing a lot of votes as compared to 2017. what matters is where they lose them. Do the tories lose most of their votes in safe seats to the brexit party, if so they don't lose too many to labour but could gain a lot depending where Labour loses it's votes.
It's not possible to predict particular gains/losses accurately because we don't know the detail enough about how the votes will be lost.
I'd venture a guess that the main determinant of the success or otherwise of the Tory campaign will indeed be where the Brexit Party's support comes from. If it's largely at the expense of the Conservatives then it could be very costly, but if the Tories' leave-leaning voters decide mostly to back Boris, and the Brexit Party's support therefore comes mainly from never-Tory Labour leave voters then Farage's outfit could be a huge asset in a whole swathe of Lab-Con marginals. We simply don't know.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
I don't think that's right re: Brecon. I've got it on good authority that the Ystradgynlais boxes which had previously been Labour went to the Lib Dems in a big way; would probably have been in recount territory otherwise. So I don't see any comfort for the Tories there, I'm afraid.
Of course it is comfort, the Labour vote is collapsing to the LDs across the country and less than 50% of LD voters in the polls prefer Corbyn as PM to Boris
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
Day this thing kicks off you should publish your list of Tory gains, and PB can keep an eye on it as the HY-ometer (tm)
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
As of today I would estimate 40 Tory gains from Labour, 15 Tory losses to the LDs and 10 Tory losses to the SNP making a net Tory gain of 15 seats to give a Tory overall majority of 14.
What about Tory losses to Independents who get booted out by Bozo for doing exactly what he did twice over?
If Philip Hammond won as an Independent he would obviously vote for a Tory government over a Corbyn government so that is all that matters.
Hammond would also vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop Boris is aiming for
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
Day this thing kicks off you should publish your list of Tory gains, and PB can keep an eye on it as the HY-ometer (tm)
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
As of today I would estimate 40 Tory gains from Labour, 15 Tory losses to the LDs and 10 Tory losses to the SNP making a net Tory gain of 15 seats to give a Tory overall majority of 14.
What about Tory losses to Independents who get booted out by Bozo for doing exactly what he did twice over?
If Philip Hammond won as an Independent he would obviously vote for a Tory government over a Corbyn government so that is all that matters.
Hammond would also vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop Boris is aiming for
Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
I think you're the last person left who believes that to be true.
That means if it turns out to be correct, then HYUFD is a true sage ...
I think that Boris wants No Deal as part of a "failing and blaming" strategy to convert UK politics into a culture war and retain power by targeting whatever are the designated target group this week. I think Boris's actions to date bear that out and that @HYUFD 's belief that Boris wants a deal is a rare slip into sentimentality for him.
We keep thinking that people like Farage and Boris are trying to be good people doing their best for the people of the UK, and that ultimately we only differ on means. What happens if they are actually bad people, or malevolent?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, thouon of his majority.
That's my theory. If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win, but those damn inconvenient BXPers could take down Brexit because they don't like or trust what Boris may do, even after he tries as hard as possible to prove his Brexiteer credentials.
It is astonishing, literally astonishing, the complacency of some anti Tory, anti Brexit posters on here.
My words:
If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win
Astonishing is right.
BXP don't need to poll as high as the LDs to cause damage to the Tories. You may be right that they poll low enough that they won't damage the Tories sufficiently to help the remain parties. I also stated that as a possibility. Boris's gamble might work.
There are plenty of people who think Boris might well win, even if they think other scenarios are also possible, and you treat them the same as if they said he has no chance. Arrogance personified.
In the likes of Vale of Clwyd in 2015 the Tories won the seat as Labour voters went UKIP, when UKIP collapsed in 2017 the Tories lost it again, the Brexit Party could even help the Tories in some Leave voting Labour areas
Labour will be left to campaign on "we agree with that, and let's spend lots more money on cancelling student loans, renationalising the railways and the water companies."
I can see that working well for Johnson.
But renationalisation is very popular. Plus expect lots of pictures of Trump and Johnson together. "Vote Boris, get Trump" sort of thing.
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
It won’t happen on the day beions over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or BroParty?
On the current swing predicted seats to fall to the Tories.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
Most of those seats were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron at least once, they are true marginal seats, mainly Leave voting, not safe Labour seats
And if I say I think the polling is as unbelievable as those giving May 20+ leads, bunged up with new leader bounce and labours mess at the Euro’s yet to unwind? As soon as the snap election is called, Boris, his government, Cummings grid of daily unbelievable giveaways all gets elbowed aside as all the opposition parties get their oxygen of publicity and heardtoo, remain parties relentlessly hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit. By the end of the campaign thing households will dread above all else is Boris No Deal, they no longer see Corbyn oat you call marginals (though many haven’t been marginal for a while!).
May lost her lead in 2017 mainly due to the dementia tax gaffe etc Boris will not repeat, Boris is also a far better campaigner than she was.
As the polling showed at the weekend with Survation 52% of voters back Boris' plan for Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop, only 40% backed revoke and remain and only 41% backed extension. Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
May lost her lead, but not her vote. That remained pretty much as it was when the election started. What happened was that Remain supporters flocked to Labour as the party best-placed to stop the Tories. We’ll see if it happens again.
The Tories were on about 48% when the 2017 campaign started, that fell to 42% after the dementia tax gaffes etc Boris will not repeat.
LD voters now also despise Corbyn almost as much as Boris in the polls so I expect most of them to stick with the yellows, not go red
On the BBC Katya Adler is clear that, from the EU point of view, the weakness in the UK bargaining position is not the threat of parliament stopping no deal, but our utter lack of a decent alternative to the backstop
I've said it once - only half in jest - and I'll say it again: all of this would be so much easier if only England and Wales could secede from the UK and leave Scotland and Northern Ireland to their own devices.
Interesting evening, was asked to speak at a 'Stop the Coup' rally. Over 150 people there, speakers from Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, and Women's Equality party.
I was struck by how determined everyone was to work together, including the Labour Party. None of the cynicism towards Labour and Corbyn that I'm used to. If at all representative, I reckon tactical voting will be off the scale if it does come to a GE. I wouldn't be surprised if the flaws in Corbyn character become less of a big deal than I'd thought, unless the Tories can do a much better attack job than in 2017.
Many yonks ago, I read a story - I can't remember the source, or whether it was factual or fiction. (If anyone knows, I'd love to hear).
In the 1960s, a company was bidding for a computer system on the Apollo program. They look at the specification and came up with a proposal. When the presentation day came, they had all their management and salesmen in the room.
They were surprised when the NASA contingent arrived. There were a couple of suits, but all the rest were engineers wearing pocket-protectors. The NASA contingent listened to the presentation - which was very good - and when the 'do you have any questions?' section came up, a junior engineer stood up and asked:
"How does it fail?"
NASA assumed the company would get something that worked to spec: if they didn't, testing would show. What they were really concerned about were the failure modes, edge and corner cases: what happened if something went wrong - would it knock out other systems that would cause a mission failure?
And that's what people producing long and convoluted ways out of the Brexit mess - on both sides - are missing. What happens if it goes wrong? What happens if it doesn't go quite the way I hope? What if fate throws the curved ball I didn't expect?
Nice story. The way to mitigate dangerous developments in government is to have a culture of being open-minded to different inputs and an approach that builds consensus rather than competitive elimination. That's what's so problematic with all this "culture-war" approach, and, indeed, with the adversarialism in parliament. It tends to produce tribes, which makes a monoculture of MPs. Monocultures are susceptible to sudden, catastrophic failure.
The crushing of dissent is sometimes tactically useful, but it's always a strategic failure. It's a basic lesson of history, in fact. I wonder why we're so blind to that right now.
Comments
And an executive that will be out on its ear perhaps.
As the polling showed at the weekend with Survation 52% of voters back Boris' plan for Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop, only 40% backed revoke and remain and only 41% backed extension. Boris is aiming for WA minus backstop first with No Deal only as a last resort to ensure Brexit
By being unclear about what Brexit is - only what it is not - he has given himself enormous power. He has millions of proxy votes to put where he wants.
So much for democracy.
And, of course, the Tory campaign will not be focussed solely on the "softhead populist" vote. There's also the "I don't want everything I own to be confiscated by John McDonnell" vote, and the all-important OAP vote. If Johnson has any sense at all, and whatever other failings the man has he doesn't appear to be completely stupid, he will strew the paths from pensioners' front doors to the polling stations with banknotes. Certainly one suspects that a re-run of the Dementia Tax debacle is unlikely...
E.g. The Brexit Party is new. Do the euro results get it all the coverage UKIP got based on broader performances?
Do the euro and Council results get the LibDems what they want/need? Will it be more than 2027?
Presumably Change U.K. will vanish from our screens?
Also slightly surprised to not see Djanogly listed as a member of the Rebel Alliance, particularly given what he's been Tweeting in the last two days. Maybe he's hoping to dodge the deselection squads (or being held in reserve in case others fold). Hopefully he'll be able to stand as a Conservative again, there's no way any other party will win here and I'd rather have him as my MP than a Hancock clone.
The Brexit party has been slashed down to just 12% to 14% in the 3 latest polls by Boris with the Tories on 31 to 35% ie about 20% ahead of the Brexit Party.
Yet in those same polls the LDs are on 18 to 21%, less than 5% behind Corbyn Labour on 22% to 24%.
At the moment it is the Remain vote split down the middle between Labour and LD under FPTP, NOT the Leave vote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I think the 15% who genuinely want Brexit to get over the line have gone or will go to the Tories.
I think the 5% leftover in BXP are never-Tories anyway. People in the past who may have voted Labour, or BNP, or even Lib Dems. Recalcitrant none-of-the-aboves and people who hate Tories. If the BXP stood down there is no guarantee these wouldn't have just gone Labour or anyone else rather than Tory.
I admit it, I'm old!
I believe it. I think if the Tories get a handsome majority in October then the EU will swallow their pride and agree to a transition without preconditions and agree to deal with the Irish border during transition. As should have happened from the start.
Indeed when cooler heads get together a GE is the only way forward and is the biggest test of democracy available. I think quite a few posters would join us in wishing a new HOC well in the principal need of beginning the healing of the nation
The Dow Jones began from similarly simple beginning. People could come to ask “how’s the HY swinging today?”
Apparently all of this is "genius".
If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win
Astonishing is right.
BXP don't need to poll as high as the LDs to cause damage to the Tories. You may be right that they poll low enough that they won't damage the Tories sufficiently to help the remain parties. I also stated that as a possibility. Boris's gamble might work.
There are plenty of people who think Boris might well win, even if they think other scenarios are also possible, and you treat them the same as if they said he has no chance. Arrogance personified.
You just don't know with our system. It's basically a lottery.
In the 1960s, a company was bidding for a computer system on the Apollo program. They look at the specification and came up with a proposal. When the presentation day came, they had all their management and salesmen in the room.
They were surprised when the NASA contingent arrived. There were a couple of suits, but all the rest were engineers wearing pocket-protectors. The NASA contingent listened to the presentation - which was very good - and when the 'do you have any questions?' section came up, a junior engineer stood up and asked:
"How does it fail?"
NASA assumed the company would get something that worked to spec: if they didn't, testing would show. What they were really concerned about were the failure modes, edge and corner cases: what happened if something went wrong - would it knock out other systems that would cause a mission failure?
And that's what people producing long and convoluted ways out of the Brexit mess - on both sides - are missing. What happens if it goes wrong? What happens if it doesn't go quite the way I hope? What if fate throws the curved ball I didn't expect?
Labour will be left to campaign on "we agree with that, and let's spend lots more money on cancelling student loans, renationalising the railways and the water companies."
I can see that working well for Johnson.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/24/my-christmas-eve-bet-that-tmay-will-still-be-pm-at-the-end-of-next-year/
Cluck cluck !
Hammond would also vote for the Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop Boris is aiming for
Sensational !
The first opposition to dodge an election 😂😂😂
We keep thinking that people like Farage and Boris are trying to be good people doing their best for the people of the UK, and that ultimately we only differ on means. What happens if they are actually bad people, or malevolent?
They simply don’t trust the public.
LD voters now also despise Corbyn almost as much as Boris in the polls so I expect most of them to stick with the yellows, not go red
No middle ground.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1168639458184503296?s=21
I've said it once - only half in jest - and I'll say it again: all of this would be so much easier if only England and Wales could secede from the UK and leave Scotland and Northern Ireland to their own devices.
I was struck by how determined everyone was to work together, including the Labour Party. None of the cynicism towards Labour and Corbyn that I'm used to. If at all representative, I reckon tactical voting will be off the scale if it does come to a GE. I wouldn't be surprised if the flaws in Corbyn character become less of a big deal than I'd thought, unless the Tories can do a much better attack job than in 2017.
The way to mitigate dangerous developments in government is to have a culture of being open-minded to different inputs and an approach that builds consensus rather than competitive elimination.
That's what's so problematic with all this "culture-war" approach, and, indeed, with the adversarialism in parliament. It tends to produce tribes, which makes a monoculture of MPs. Monocultures are susceptible to sudden, catastrophic failure.
The crushing of dissent is sometimes tactically useful, but it's always a strategic failure. It's a basic lesson of history, in fact. I wonder why we're so blind to that right now.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1168641286292824064?s=21