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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the out

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

They were also promising this. We’ve got the monstrosity of Settled Status instead. pic.twitter.com/41dNhKvENw

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Fat chance.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    Third!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,927
    edited October 2019
    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agree to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    The Leave vote politicians are shameless in changing their intepretations of the vote overtime. It is a good reason why a second vote on a deal or remain is essential...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    Neil Woodford sacked by his own flagship fund as administrators prepare to wind it up

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/15/neil-woodfords-flagship-fund-wound-upby-administrator/
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well obviously.

    The Leave campaign had two essential components: hosing the NHS with money and being unpleasant to foreigners. Leavers are entitled to insist on those two aspects from any Brexit deal. Nothing else has a mandate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,927
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    I have a bad feeling you will be left feeling stranded, when the tide goes out and an extension is agreed! No Deal by the way probably means a very long wait for a trade deal...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agree to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    But they won't remove the backstop, so it can't be delivered in the real world rather than the fantasy world of the braindead Brexiteer. The person that you are such an unapologetic fan-boy for is a liar and a cheat. He knows it, I know it. Somehow, you seem quaintly unaware.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Genuine question: who, if not the Official Leave Campaign, did you expect to define how your vote would be carried out?

    It clearly wasn't going to be the incumbent Prime Minister, David Cameron.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Cameron should have sacked Penny Mordaunt - on the spot - when she refused to clarify that we have a veto on Turkey joining.

    Ever since then, there's been no accountability for outright lying and it's just grown and grown to where it hardly matters what the vote was actually won on.

    A crucial moment of weakness.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    I have a bad feeling you will be left feeling stranded, when the tide goes out and an extension os agreed! No Deal by the way probably means a very long wait for a trade deal...

    No Deal = no deal withthe EU, the US and pretty much everyone else. It also leaves British citizens and businesses less free than they are noiw, while making the UK government more dependent on the goodwill of others to keep the wheels of commerce, industry, travel, trade and countless other things turning. And all that's before you factor in any uinseen consequences. Apart from that it is a brilliant and definitely sustainable idea.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.
    Anyone who suggests that I voted the way I did because of the official leave campaign is plain wrong.

    Perhaps you like to vote without thinking for yourself, but I try not to.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Imagine being so corrupt John Bolton wants no part of it

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1183936219631280128?s=19

    We are getting to circular firing squad here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2019
    "Your were making a lot of noise"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7574535/The-Queen-tells-schoolboy-noisy-refuses-cup-tea-shes-busy.html

    I wonder if she said the same thing to Boris?
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    El_Capitano said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Genuine question: who, if not the Official Leave Campaign, did you expect to define how your vote would be carried out?

    It clearly wasn't going to be the incumbent Prime Minister, David Cameron.
    Well for me it was about the long term. I don't think that a European super-state is the best long-term future for the UK, or at least the sort of super-state that the EU seems to be heading for. My preference would have been to try to redirect that destination, but Cameron tried that and failed.

    I disagreed and do disagree really rather strongly with many of the other reasons that people had for leaving the EU. Obviously I disagree with many of the Remain reasons as well.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,922
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    Everyone who voted for leave voted for their own unique (unicorn) imagined version of Brexit.

    It's why leaving is proving to be such a problem as no-one can agree on what our relationships need to look like.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.
    It is perfectly possible to have clear reasons for voting for or against leaving the EU which have nothing to do with the campaigns either official or unofficial. All it requires is to have a clear idea of what one wants our international relationships and internal political structures to be.

    So there are plenty like Williamglen who wanted far closer ties to the EU than were being offered by the official Remain campaign. There were plenty like me who wanted a closer final relationship than was being touted by Vote Leave.

    I have far more faith in people's ability to be discriminatory about these detailed arguments than you seem to hold.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    Alistair said:

    Imagine being so corrupt John Bolton wants no part of it

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1183936219631280128?s=19

    We are getting to circular firing squad here.

    Good.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,927
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,927
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    I have a bad feeling you will be left feeling stranded, when the tide goes out and an extension is agreed! No Deal by the way probably means a very long wait for a trade deal...
    Brexit Deal or No Deal will remain Tory policy, if they get a Tory majority they can then deliver it
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,673
    edited October 2019
    A narrow vote in favour that realistically might be overturned in second referendum is absolutely the only thing Leave has going for it. We have years of crapness to look forward to. Not a single Leaver has ever come up with any concrete reason to believe otherwise.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rottenborough said:

    Alistair said:

    Imagine being so corrupt John Bolton wants no part of it

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1183936219631280128?s=19

    We are getting to circular firing squad here.

    Good.
    Wait. Donald Trump and Theresa May each had a Fiona Hill? Spooky.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,147
    No chance Mike. People have been gas-lighted, lied to and confused. They no longer have a clue what "leave" or "European Union" means which is why they reject a deal which has us leave the EU because they think we wouldn't have. They can't tell you why we're leaving without claiming things long ago disproven as one of the gas-lighting lies. They have forgotten that they voted to be better off because "things can't get any worse" now that they insist they are happy to be worse off.

    Whatever ANYONE now does, people will be angry. And with respect to the Cummings/HYUFD master plan, if we miraculously get a viable deal by midnight, and get it EU approved, and get it HoC approved, and get it implemented by Halloween (most of which are impossible if not insane), then people will be OUTRAGED. It isn't PROPER BREXIT. We're STILL IN THE EU" etc etc. And they will not vote Tory they will vote Brexit.

    If the Tories deliver the deal they are electorally screwed. If they deliver no deal they know the economic damage means they are electorally screwed. Their only saving grace being that Labour are also screwed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    What if we officially leave, but we stay in the "transition period" (during which absolutely nothing changes) forevermore, because a permanent deal can never be reached and MPs keep forcing the government to extend the transition instead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,927
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
    The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    “For us as a business, obviously the main challenge isn’t from Brexit itself, it’s from the uncertainty. The number one requirement is that there is certainty about what happens. Equally, that uncertainty is not unhelpful from a reader perspective,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/oct/15/daily-telegraph-drops-bottled-water-promo-wh-smith-pre-tax-profits-fall
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.
    It is perfectly possible to have clear reasons for voting for or against leaving the EU which have nothing to do with the campaigns either official or unofficial. All it requires is to have a clear idea of what one wants our international relationships and internal political structures to be.

    So there are plenty like Williamglen who wanted far closer ties to the EU than were being offered by the official Remain campaign. There were plenty like me who wanted a closer final relationship than was being touted by Vote Leave.

    I have far more faith in people's ability to be discriminatory about these detailed arguments than you seem to hold.
    I have spent quite a bit of my life working life working in marketing and the psychological effect of marketing messages. Those that claim they are not susceptible are nearly always the most easily influenced. Political propaganda is simply cynical marketing where the truth is considered unimportant or inconvenient.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Danny565 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    What if we officially leave, but we stay in the "transition period" (during which absolutely nothing changes) forevermore, because a permanent deal can never be reached and MPs keep forcing the government to extend the transition instead?
    Manna from heaven for Boris. We'd have left, so promised delivered, but the project fear consequences will not have kicked in to decimate the Tory vote. The voter on the Clapham omnibus can't tell vassalage from vaseline so that's all right.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    Can anyone confirm the latest date a VONC would have to be called in order for there to be a GE possibility this year?

    By my reckoning this would have to be tabled by the end of next week (assuming GE will not go past 10 December).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The_Taxman said:

    The Leave vote politicians are shameless in changing their intepretations of the vote overtime. It is a good reason why a second vote on a deal or remain is essential...

    Good luck with that fella!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
    The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do
    Good old Boris eh? If Boris says so it must be true, just ask his wife!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    What if we officially leave, but we stay in the "transition period" (during which absolutely nothing changes) forevermore, because a permanent deal can never be reached and MPs keep forcing the government to extend the transition instead?
    Manna from heaven for Boris. We'd have left, so promised delivered, but the project fear consequences will not have kicked in to decimate the Tory vote. The voter on the Clapham omnibus can't tell vassalage from vaseline so that's all right.
    To be honest, I'd be quite happy with it too; I don't give a shit about the symbolism of being in the EU (our "place in the world" or "having a seat at the international table" or any of that bollocks), so if we officially left but nothing tangible changes for the worse then that's fine by me.

    But I'm sceptical the average Brexit voter would be satisfied.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
    The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do
    By the way, is this you agreeing with yourself, or arguing?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    Russia Says Its Troops Are Patrolling Area Between Turkish and Syrian Forces

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/world/middleeast/kurds-syria-turkey.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Putin's man delivers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,073
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    Yep, me too. I want a deal but to say that I voted the way that I did because someone told me that this would be an easy deal or even the easiest deal in history is frankly insulting what little intelligence I have.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The irony is that the deal Theresa May managed to agree with the EU, which was so successfully trashed by Boris and several other Vote Leave principals, was in fact the closest to the Vote Leave promises that it would have been humanly possible to get.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    edited October 2019
    Stocky said:

    Can anyone confirm the latest date a VONC would have to be called in order for there to be a GE possibility this year?

    By my reckoning this would have to be tabled by the end of next week (assuming GE will not go past 10 December).

    I think technically it's November the 8th or there about. But that assumes the PM opted for the legal minimum campaign, was prepared to prorouge and dissolve immeadiately and hold a GE on NYE. In reality it's much earlier than that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,310
    Stocky said:

    Can anyone confirm the latest date a VONC would have to be called in order for there to be a GE possibility this year?

    By my reckoning this would have to be tabled by the end of next week (assuming GE will not go past 10 December).

    Nov 5, I believe (5 weeks).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

    Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

    I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

    There is no good outcome.

    The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agree to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    Can you name anything bad for UK that the European Court has ever done
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    RochdalePioneers said:

    No chance Mike. People have been gas-lighted, lied to and confused. They no longer have a clue what "leave" or "European Union" means which is why they reject a deal which has us leave the EU because they think we wouldn't have. They can't tell you why we're leaving without claiming things long ago disproven as one of the gas-lighting lies. They have forgotten that they voted to be better off because "things can't get any worse" now that they insist they are happy to be worse off.

    Whatever ANYONE now does, people will be angry. And with respect to the Cummings/HYUFD master plan, if we miraculously get a viable deal by midnight, and get it EU approved, and get it HoC approved, and get it implemented by Halloween (most of which are impossible if not insane), then people will be OUTRAGED. It isn't PROPER BREXIT. We're STILL IN THE EU" etc etc. And they will not vote Tory they will vote Brexit.

    If the Tories deliver the deal they are electorally screwed. If they deliver no deal they know the economic damage means they are electorally screwed. Their only saving grace being that Labour are also screwed.

    Sorry, who are these people who have been lied to and gas-lighted, so that they now reject a deal?

    The ERG, the DUP or the Lib Dems who were elected as Labour MPs on a pledge to respect the result?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    Good guide to tonight's Dem debate:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/11/us/politics/october-democratic-debate.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    Yep, me too. I want a deal but to say that I voted the way that I did because someone told me that this would be an easy deal or even the easiest deal in history is frankly insulting what little intelligence I have.
    I wanted to Leave before a referendum was even put in the Tory manifesto... how have I been influenced by, or fallen for the lies of, the campaign?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    Yep, me too. I want a deal but to say that I voted the way that I did because someone told me that this would be an easy deal or even the easiest deal in history is frankly insulting what little intelligence I have.
    David, may be correct for the few, but many went with what the SUN and others like it said, they had no clue what they were voting on.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    NickPalmer: "Nov 5, I believe (5 weeks)."

    Are you allowing for the 14 days for a failed attempt to find an alternative government?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.
    It is perfectly possible to have clear reasons for voting for or against leaving the EU which have nothing to do with the campaigns either official or unofficial. All it requires is to have a clear idea of what one wants our international relationships and internal political structures to be.

    So there are plenty like Williamglen who wanted far closer ties to the EU than were being offered by the official Remain campaign. There were plenty like me who wanted a closer final relationship than was being touted by Vote Leave.

    I have far more faith in people's ability to be discriminatory about these detailed arguments than you seem to hold.
    I have spent quite a bit of my life working life working in marketing and the psychological effect of marketing messages. Those that claim they are not susceptible are nearly always the most easily influenced. Political propaganda is simply cynical marketing where the truth is considered unimportant or inconvenient.
    It is difficult to be influenced in favour of a message when disagree with the message, its underlying assumptions and its subsequent conclusions.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
    The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do
    Down to answering your own posts nowadays, what next.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    isam said: "I wanted to Leave before a referendum was even put in the Tory manifesto... how have I been influenced by, or fallen for the lies of, the campaign?"

    That`s a very good point.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889
    Danny565 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.
    This I would agree with entirely
    What if we officially leave, but we stay in the "transition period" (during which absolutely nothing changes) forevermore, because a permanent deal can never be reached and MPs keep forcing the government to extend the transition instead?
    I woulx have to revidit the detail as it seems a lifetime ago now but as I remember the transition period put us outside the EU structures but inside the Single Market. Which is what I want as an end point anyway.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Stocky said:

    The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

    Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

    I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

    There is no good outcome.

    The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.

    Non-EU immigration increased, and is generally far more obvious than EU immigration. In addition, Leave areas were not in general where the immigrants went so it is not really about immigration even if the voters said it was. It was economic decline exacerbated by austerity.

    Voters wrongly blamed immigration for their economic decline, and then wrongly blamed the EU for that immigration, and so voted Leave.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,464
    edited October 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Well obviously.

    The Leave campaign had two essential components: hosing the NHS with money and being unpleasant to foreigners. Leavers are entitled to insist on those two aspects from any Brexit deal. Nothing else has a mandate.

    I think that is a little unfair. Leavers are entitled to believe that the NHS should be properly funded - but this will always be a matter of judgement as the amount that could be spent is unlimited. And leavers were entitled to vote on the basis that the claim of a Ugandan, Tanzanian, Australian or Ecuadorian to work and settle in the UK were neither better nor worse than a Lithuanian, Bulgarian or German.

    Protecting the boundaries of countries, of which we are one, where at any time perhaps many millions would happily settle from overseas is always going to be hard. Such protection can always be dressed up as unpleasantness to Johnny Foreigner but I don't think that would be correct. The sheer numbers who have settled here indicates otherwise.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

    I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Stocky said:

    NickPalmer: "Nov 5, I believe (5 weeks)."

    Are you allowing for the 14 days for a failed attempt to find an alternative government?

    I think it's 30th or 31st of October if you think December the 12th is the last possible practical GE this year. But no VONC date guarentees a GE this year as setting the date is a prerogative power of the PM.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,698
    Stocky said:

    isam said: "I wanted to Leave before a referendum was even put in the Tory manifesto... how have I been influenced by, or fallen for the lies of, the campaign?"

    That`s a very good point.

    OK, subtract one form the 17.4 million.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,310
    Guardian blog reports an ITV Welsh poll confirming the earlier poll showing a move to the two big parties (+5 and +3 respectively), with the Tories in pole position, and the anti-No Deal vote splintered - https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-10-15/poll-lead-with-welsh-voters-suggests-boris-johnson-is-on-course-for-election-win/ .
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tpfkar said:

    Cameron should have sacked Penny Mordaunt - on the spot - when she refused to clarify that we have a veto on Turkey joining.

    Ever since then, there's been no accountability for outright lying and it's just grown and grown to where it hardly matters what the vote was actually won on.

    A crucial moment of weakness.

    I was going to make a point about outright lying in relation to rights for EU citizens where the reality falls well short of the rhetoric from the Johnson Ministry.

    How do we make lying something that costs a politician their job?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    Alastair - leavers would be making the same argument that you and Mike Smithson are making if remain had one the referendum. Remain campaign lied to.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

    I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
    Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    I for one regarded this as an existential question with consequences waaaaaaaaaaaaaay beyond what any "campaign" came out with.
    On the basis of fact and evidence I chose to remain, despite the poor campaign they ran.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    Pulpstar said: "I for one regarded this as an existential question with consequences waaaaaaaaaaaaaay beyond what any "campaign" came out with.
    On the basis of fact and evidence I chose to remain, despite the poor campaign they ran"

    Me too
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

    Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

    I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

    There is no good outcome.

    The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.

    Cameron could have applied the controls on free movement that were currently available but he chose not to use?

    No renegotiation required.

    Cameron's fault, not the EU.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    Well there is.

    You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    Alastair - leavers would be making the same argument that you and Mike Smithson are making if remain had one the referendum. Remain campaign lied to.

    If Remain had won the referendum, the prospectus was clear: implement David Cameron's renegotiation.

    The public remember exactly two things about the Leave campaign: the bus and the anti-immigration stuff. That's all that Leavers can demand is honoured. The rest is open for discussion and is mandateless.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile:

    https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1184095008292589568
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,464
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    I suspect that the largest factor was the stupefying awfulness of the Remain campaign. To my mind the actual merits of remaining and leaving were and are extremely evenly balanced, but Remain had the advantage both of a status quo which had given very great benefits economically, had huge appeal to almost all younger people and the many practical advantages of EU membership. They threw away a dead easy victory. Leavers didn't win it - their campaign was rubbish. Remain lost it, their effort was even worse.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    edited October 2019
    OblitusSumMe said:

    tpfkar said:

    Cameron should have sacked Penny Mordaunt - on the spot - when she refused to clarify that we have a veto on Turkey joining.

    Ever since then, there's been no accountability for outright lying and it's just grown and grown to where it hardly matters what the vote was actually won on.

    A crucial moment of weakness.

    I was going to make a point about outright lying in relation to rights for EU citizens where the reality falls well short of the rhetoric from the Johnson Ministry.

    How do we make lying something that costs a politician their job?
    Ban manifestos and hustings? All of the new Lib Dem recruits would be out of a job (and into another cushy one)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1184095347402035202
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    No decision yet on asking the Commons to agree to Super Saturday.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    Alastair, I agree that much of the electorate is anti-immigration. But twas ever thus. I`m not convinced that the leave campaign`s lies affected the result - sorry.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

    I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!
    Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK
    Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.
    Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive
    The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do
    If he manages the trick of achieving a Hard Brexit (which btw most people didn't vote for) for the whole UK whilst avoiding a hard border in Ireland, he's one of the greatest magicians who's ever lived.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    Well there is.

    You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?
    I was open to persuasion. Then it became apparent that all Leave had to campaign on was an anti-immigration message and at that point it was apparent that Remain was the less bad choice.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Stocky said:

    Alastair, I agree that much of the electorate is anti-immigration. But twas ever thus. I`m not convinced that the leave campaign`s lies affected the result - sorry.

    The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign. In fact the only time that Leavers have ever outnumbered Remainers was from June-December 2016. (I suppose it took a few months for the propaganda to wear off.)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,634
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    Well there is.

    You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?
    I was open to persuasion. Then it became apparent that all Leave had to campaign on was an anti-immigration message and at that point it was apparent that Remain was the less bad choice.
    I mean, I could have been persuaded by Lexit but a) Brexit was always going to be delivered by a Tory government and b) the out and out racism of the underlying feelings towards the EU. But me and many of my friends were more than willing to ditch the EU following the treatment of Greece and the migrant crisis. We just also didn't trust that the answer to that would be brought to us by the Tories.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,147
    isam said:

    Sorry, who are these people who have been lied to and gas-lighted, so that they now reject a deal?

    The ERG, the DUP or the Lib Dems who were elected as Labour MPs on a pledge to respect the result?

    The MPs and the voters who were/are against the Withdrawal Agreement becaused according to them it doesn't mean leaving the European Union. The WA absolutely means we leave. But cretins bang on about "BRINO" and other nonsense. There's swathes of them on local Facebook groups. All ranting against local Labour MPs for not delivering Brexit. When I ask if they should have voted for the WA they say NO, because it isn't Brexit.

    As Brexit isn't Brexit according to Brexiteers I think calling them cretins is only fair.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I didn't vote for a campaign. Indeed, no-one did. The question on the ballot paper was about remaining in or leaving the EU.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    edited October 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    Well there is.

    You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?
    I was open to persuasion. Then it became apparent that all Leave had to campaign on was an anti-immigration message and at that point it was apparent that Remain was the less bad choice.
    11.3m people had voted in a GE for a party promising a referendum on the EU, and a further 3.8m for UKIP, just a year previously. Is it really that hard to imagine that a majority of those people would have decided to vote Leave before the referendum campaign began?

    A week or so before the vote, someone shouting "Britain First" murdered Jo Cox, and Leave still won. Seems to me the resolve of Leave voters was stiffer than could be induced by a campaign
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,464
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

    I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
    Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.
    There is a misunderstanding here. Parliament's mandate was given to the people for one question only: Remain or Leave. Having decided that, the mandate returns to government and parliament to sort it out; until they have done so it remains with them. We can all make our judgements at General Elections. The respective campaigns were not run by organisations that had the power to implement them. Only government and parliament has that power.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,187
    Alistair said:

    Imagine being so corrupt John Bolton wants no part of it

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1183936219631280128?s=19

    We are getting to circular firing squad here.

    Is Bolton renowned for being particularly corrupt ?
    A massive @rsehole, certainly, but for other reasons. And he has definitely fallen out with Trump.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm enjoying this latest Leave meme that the referendum vote was presented to us, fully formed, immanent and unblemished by external influences.
  • LucyMoralesLucyMorales Posts: 45
    El_Capitano said:

    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Genuine question: who, if not the Official Leave Campaign, did you expect to define how your vote would be carried out?

    It clearly wasn't going to be the incumbent Prime Minister, David Cameron.
    Why ‘clearly’? He said throughout the campaign that he would continue as PM no matter what. He also said he would trigger Article 50 immediately. The subsequent mayhem is all entirely Cameron’s fault. I don’t blame Farage or Kate Hoey or Gove or anybody else. None of them was in government. They were basically irrelevant.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,691
    Dadge said: "The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign."

    Sorry - I`ll be clearer - the campaign did affect the result, but I don`t think it`s lies did. Where the leave campaign was so succesful was getting its vote out - particular in poor areas, where many voted for the first time in their lives.

    I`ve always thought (but cannot prove) that the majority was and is Remain - but turnout was the key. It follows, if I`m right, that we are being taken out of the EU against the country`s wishes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

    I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.
    Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.
    There is a misunderstanding here. Parliament's mandate was given to the people for one question only: Remain or Leave. Having decided that, the mandate returns to government and parliament to sort it out; until they have done so it remains with them. We can all make our judgements at General Elections. The respective campaigns were not run by organisations that had the power to implement them. Only government and parliament has that power.
    Bollocks. The vote was won with the Leave campaign. Pretending it didn't happen and ignoring the basis on which it was won is a betrayal of democracy.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    RochdalePioneers said:

    isam said:

    Sorry, who are these people who have been lied to and gas-lighted, so that they now reject a deal?

    The ERG, the DUP or the Lib Dems who were elected as Labour MPs on a pledge to respect the result?

    The MPs and the voters who were/are against the Withdrawal Agreement becaused according to them it doesn't mean leaving the European Union. The WA absolutely means we leave. But cretins bang on about "BRINO" and other nonsense. There's swathes of them on local Facebook groups. All ranting against local Labour MPs for not delivering Brexit. When I ask if they should have voted for the WA they say NO, because it isn't Brexit.

    As Brexit isn't Brexit according to Brexiteers I think calling them cretins is only fair.
    Ah, facebook groups. The goto place for representative samples
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    Omnium said:

    I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

    Sadly for you, the current PM was the face of the official Leave campaign.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?

    That’s a good point Richard. How might we go about achieving that?
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?

    There might be an argument for scrapping the result and starting again if there was a dedicated effort to address the underlying reasons for the huge leave vote, that could be shown to be possible within the confines of the EU.

    However, there is no desire, either in Parliament or on these boards, to grapple with these difficult questions. Instead those seeking to overturn the vote prefer to accuse the entire leave voting population as either thick, or racist, or corrupt, which merely widens the divisions, and, I'm afraid, shows those making such accusations to be more narrow minded, bigoted and prejudiced than those they accuse. Which is why these boards have been so depressing to read for so long and why I rarely contribute.

    I was a remain voter, and remain enormously receptive to the idea of remaining in a way that does not further fracture our society - that I've heard nothing remotely convincing in over 3 years is genuinely depressing.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,872
    Dadge said:

    Stocky said:

    Alastair, I agree that much of the electorate is anti-immigration. But twas ever thus. I`m not convinced that the leave campaign`s lies affected the result - sorry.

    The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign. In fact the only time that Leavers have ever outnumbered Remainers was from June-December 2016. (I suppose it took a few months for the propaganda to wear off.)
    Of course it affected the outcome. But what the Remainieiris are saying is that specific Leave voters on here were influenced by it. As they blatantly obviously weren't it seems only fair to put them right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,473
    edited October 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

    No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

    That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.
    How much evidence is there that the campaign made any difference, either way?

    For example the ORB poll published a few days after the referendum was announced gave 52% to Leave and the breakdown by region and demographics looks pretty close to the national result.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20160307004637/http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/datatablesfeb2016.pdf

    Indeed looking at the polls, the overall picture showed quite a spread with phone polls better for Remain, but no clear trend over the course of the campaign.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

    There is a case to be made that campaigning is by and large futile, though perhaps one not to the taste of political nerds on PB. Not for the first time Mr Cummings may be shown to be not as clever as he thinks he is.
This discussion has been closed.