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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat
I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)
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Bernie Sanders - 7/10. While I'm not a great fan of the content, he was articulate and had a lot of energy.
Kamala Harris - 3/10. Was she at the debate? I didn't notice her.
Tulsi Gabbard - 4/10. Sensible but stilted. Lacked any kind of connection with the audience.
Andrew Yang - 6/10. Better than I expected. Still going nowhere.
Tom Steyer - 4/10. Had some passion. But ultimately, who is he? And why is he still in the race?
Beto O'Rourke - 4/10. I had high hopes for Beto. Those hopes were dashed. He needs to quit the race.
Elizabeth Warren - 6/10. She started strong. But her schtick got irritating. She was the focus of a lot of attacks, so she spoke a lot.
Pete Buttigieg - 7.5/10. He was great on foreign policy and his service. His healthcare plan looks sensible. He talks with enormous sincerity.
Joe Biden - 5/10. He really is sleepy Joe. "I want to abolish capital gains tax. I mean I want to increase capital gains tax." "And thirdly... I mean secondly... No, thirdly." When he's on point he's persuasive, but it's fair to say he's not good on his feet.
Cory Booker - 6.5/10. You know, I really liked Cory tonight. But he's probably not going anywhere.
Julian Castro - 5/10. Anonymous except for one good zinger: the Trump adminstration's policy is locking up children in cages while letting ISIS fighters go free.
Amy Klobucher. 5/10. She speaks a lot of sense. But has no gravitas and a weird smirk.
Did I miss anyone?
So I'd go for Midwestern moderate who is not showing signs of mental degradation.
Buttigieg is inexperienced, he doesn't have much of a record, and he's terrible at defending what record he has. He's definitely got talent and he might get better, but why risk it?
I just don't see how he gets into the top tier in the next three months. With Amy there is a credible (if unlikely) path. With Cory, is there?
OTOH I think John Kerry and John McCain both had quite low polling this far out. The moderate voters just need to coalesce around someone. And against an incumbent they usually do, so the strategy is probably just to back a bunch of moderates, or lay the immoderate favourite.
And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.
Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
https://twitter.com/edwardgluce/status/1184336123763527680?s=21
Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.
https://twitter.com/hansardsociety/status/1184178790051860481?s=21
https://www.counterpointresearch.com/us-market-smartphone-share/
Similarly Amazon. Walmart has 8% of the US physical retail market, but Amazon has 49% of US Online sales, and uses its Market place to gather information on smaller businesses then screws them by pinching their customers.
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
https://twitter.com/squeezyjohn/status/1184172376294133766?s=21
If you think there is a legit issue with the way Apple licenses it’s content (e.g. movies) then tackle that through legislation if needs must. But it’s a legal mindfield and is quickly becoming a non issue anyway as basically everything moves to the streaming model (see recent Apple Arcade launch).
Warren is like all politicians tackling yesterday’s problem. Breaking up American capitalism’s greatest success of the last 30 years is bananas.
As for Amazon, online sales represent a whopping 10% of total retail sales, giving it a totally criminal 5% share of the US market. It’s made transactions cheaper, more environmentally efficient, and has exponentially expanded the potential seller-customer links.
It has a high share of the US online market because domestic opponents still haven’t got their act together. In large swathes of the world (including where I am right now), Amazon is but one of the major online sellers. Having tried them all, it by far offers the most consistent service, with the lowest packaging waste and most transparent t&c’s. It’s a titan of capitalism’s power to transform the world for the better and should be lauded, not hounded.
Facebook is another matter.
2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
1. A bad deal is better than No Deal
2. The UK does not hold all the cards
Hope he doesn't get it. I've backed others and don't really want to put more into this market.
I'm just genuinely asking. The last time I latched onto Buttigieg his campaign seemed in serious trouble and I was very surprised to learn that he was recovering as the not so golden oldies at the top of the field stumbled.
The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.
The UK.
Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would.
The Benn Act has obviously worked. Without it Bozo would not be negotiating.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1184359458966818817?s=19
The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.
Enabling the average person to “rent” computers that would normally cost tens of thousands to own outright for barely $1/hour could be significant force for good, or evil depending on the approach.
and this is where the supporters of "business" dont actually think through the economic consequences. Every so often failing markets need a good shake up.
My point was that Tory dampers have been insisting that the use of divisive language was right as it separates off Johnson and the People from Parliament and the other parties. Except that they are going to end up putting through a deal that is the literal sell out they have spent the last few months attacking.
One thing that Brexit chanters aren't is open to compromise. They have been told - by Johnson himself! - to beware the kind of compromise that Johnson now clings to as his final lifebelt. They aren't going to reward the Tory party with a HYUFD wet dream majority. Instead they are going to vote for the Brexit Party.
Ordinarily that gives advantage to the remain aide - split the leave vote as in Peterborough and remain wins. Except that the primary "remain" party is also leave but a kinder gentler leave where Barry Gardiner and Richard Burgon solve the NI issue with some crayons and fuzzy felt and then put the deal to the public whilst Jezbollah makes collages of anti-Jewish memes at a Momentum/Hate rally. So the remain aide is split as well.
All the more reason not to hold a winter term general election
Or, just maybe, Lough the DUP and find something that others may be prepared to compromise on.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1184004849710579713?s=19
But I suspect everyone is getting wound up to no great purpose over this. An incoming Democratic president will have a mountain of things on their agenda, and even if the Senate tips to the Democrats, only a limited ability to get legislation through Congress. They will have to prioritise.
Is Warren really going to back-burner her healthcare, tax and/or climate change plans to fight a long, complex and ultimately confusing antitrust battle ?
I doubt it.
Going after Facebook on privacy issues might be a far simpler and more productive approach.
That’s already illegal - but is nothing to do with Aws and amazon being co owned
Just the threat of legislation has the possibility of getting marginal improvements, and while I think it unlikely that she'll be able to carry our the threatened breakups, it will tend to move public opinion in an anti-trust direction.
Problem is even if it is pure principle they just block everything and give cover to ERG Spartans so theres no achievable solution.
If there was a second vote I’d vote Remain though .