The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.
Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Two universities. Although W&L clearly was a sterling effort despite that.
The polls were showing only a small swing to the tories in the west Midlands. Looks like that's what happened. Not sure why though
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.
Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.
Hope you never observed that people voting for Labour were voting for an anti-Semite.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Chester Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader? Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference. The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor? Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not? Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP. So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
"The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!"
Bleat bleat bleat bleat bleat......
Since the coalition days I've never trusted the tories. They are duplicitous bastards who will sell their own grannies down the river. I even heard one during the campaign taunting the libdems over tuition fees, when it was supposed to be their government policy anyway!
She's talking a lot of sense here. A stitch up would be a disaster. Don't know much about her but I hope she runs (she's also my best betting result that's realistic).
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.
Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.
Hope you never observed that people voting for Labour were voting for an anti-Semite.
I actually never did. I wouldn't be surprised if the myopic focus of the left on these issues cost them more votes than it gained them. People care about their livelihood, services, etc, not what was said twenty or so years ago that has been blown all out of proportion.
Trickett Burgon Abbott Lavery Rayner McDonnell Corbyn That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
So who are the next lot?
Butler Webbe Carden Ali Huq Osamor Siddiq Er, Hodge, maybe?
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?
Hodge was of course the person who effectively got Corbyn his seat in Islington in ‘83 because he was ideologically sound.
I wonder if she now regrets this...
Yes, this was the joke*.
Am I being overly cynical by thinking that the strategy for this election was to lose as many moderate MPs as possible, thus simultaneously a) ensuring Brexit, followed by the loss of all Labour MEPs and b) reducing the nominations threshold for the next leader?
Cummings was playing chess. Milne was trying to lose all of his pawns, and get all his pieces to the left hand side of the board.
Edit: I actually didn't know she got him his seat in 1983. The joke was that she followed that up by nominating him in 2015 to "broaden the debate".
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.
I wanted three CON gains in Coventry! And nearly got them!
Don't Ave It , you did not listen to me................SNP landslide
Burgon and RLB IIRC have to get the support of at least 35 Labour MPs to even get to the membership. After 2015, I don’t see Labour MPs backing candidates that they couldn’t live with as leader of the party.
.
Depends on what the make-up of the PLP is this time. Must have been a lot more momentum backed candidates. On Merseyside for instance, Ellman, Berger and Field and Twigg are gone from 2017 and replaced by Momentum minded Labour MPs. Similarly Charlotte Nichols replaces Helen Jones in Warrington North. Am less familiar with other areas, but may well be that the PLP has shifted in a Corbynite direction.
It needs a look into the alleged 30 candidates who had complaints about them.
For example Claudia Webbe (wrote letter to newspaper defending Ken Livingstone on concentration camp guard issue) and the one who was a Lutfur Rahman protege have I think made it in in safe seats.
Obvs Chris Williamson has been defenestrated, which is excellent.
Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff N Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Chester Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Chester has a university as well, don’t forget.
Indeed.
Actually Chester went Labour in 2015 so I was mistaken above.
But if you look at the Labour gains from the Conservatives in 2015:
Brentford Chester Dewsbury Ealing C Enfield N Ilford N Lancaster Wirral W Wolverhampton SW
Only Dewsbury and Wolverhampton SW were won by the Conservatives in 2019.
With the same pattern of posho remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland among those still Labour.
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
Trickett Burgon Abbott Lavery Rayner McDonnell Corbyn That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
So who are the next lot?
Butler Webbe Carden Ali Huq Osamor Siddiq Er, Hodge, maybe?
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?
Hodge was of course the person who effectively got Corbyn his seat in Islington in ‘83 because he was ideologically sound.
I wonder if she now regrets this...
Yes, this was the joke*.
Am I being overly cynical by thinking that the strategy for this election was to lose as many moderate MPs as possible, thus simultaneously a) ensuring Brexit, followed by the loss of all Labour MEPs and b) reducing the nominations threshold for the next leader?
Cummings was playing chess. Milne was trying to lose all of his pawns, and get all his pieces to the left hand side of the board.
Edit: I actually didn't know she got him his seat in 1983. The joke was that she followed that up by nominating him in 2015 to "broaden the debate".
Quite possibly. In Staffordshire the way Ruth Smeeth and Gareth Snell were hung out to dry in seats Labour could have won was nothing short of disgraceful.
But tbh, it should be noted that Labour have always taken Stoke for granted. Look at the Tristram Hunt debacle.
1) what happened to the youthquake then? 2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.
2. Probably still in mourning.
Not been around since the password debacle.
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?
Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
1) what happened to the youthquake then? 2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.
2. Probably still in mourning.
Not been around since the password debacle.
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?
Anyway, seems like the youthquake was not of White Island proportions.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
Being white and middle class I like to not judge us too softly on racism, although I have been a victim but only the once in Poland so it doesn't count that much. But yes, we are generally much more tolerant than a lot in Labour give us credit for. I mean looking at some of the twitter posts I can see how divorced they are from the mainstream, posting about white supremacy and imperialism etc etc. Forgetting that the working classes in the UK don't think about these things, they just want solid jobs and stuff to put under the tree at Christmas.
1) what happened to the youthquake then? 2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.
2. Probably still in mourning.
Not been around since the password debacle.
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich
Putney, though I say so myself, must be the worst performing seat for the Tories in the entire land. Having had a Con majority of > 10,000 barely four and a half years ago, it is now in Labour's hands with a staggering majority of almost 5,000 on a turnout of 77%. ... it was in fact the only seat gained by Labour in the entire General Election. Other neighbouring seats, incl Richmond, Twickenham, Wimbledon have become decidedly less blue over recent years, turning towards the LibDems, but Putney, for whatever reason, has gone headlong towards Labour, all rather strange, perhaps related to the fast expanding student population at Roehampton University.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
Greedy! If the Conservatives had done that well then they would've ended up with a three-figure majority and swept Yvette Cooper away to boot.
Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.
I saw an interview on foreign media with one of the people who wrote the Tory manifesto and I was impressed by how much they have clearly thought about winning the peace, not just the war, the kind of forethought that government desperately needs. We shall see if the strategy and implementation is successful.
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
She's talking a lot of sense here. A stitch up would be a disaster. Don't know much about her but I hope she runs (she's also my best betting result that's realistic).
The winner will be whoever is the most left-wing. So not her.
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
You might have missed the referendum on leaving the EU, where the leave side secure 52%.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for?
I’m intrigued. What other reasons would anyone have had for voting Tory?
Come to that, what more reason would they need?
It was the most horribly negative campaign for an excellent reason.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
The Lords will not frustrate, they will do their job and scrutinize and amend but they won’t frustrate, the war is over.
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.
"..nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims" - ha ha ha. Have you ever wondered how the errr... "Districts" came about? Is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961 news to you? I suggest you ask some French muslims about the relative atmosphere here and there.
Canada - I presume you are referring to Trudeau's black face incident? I suggest you ask some actual Canadians of colour. They will tell you there is a noticeable difference between a stupid costume and, say, being a defender and friend of people who spread the Blood Libel,
The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.
As your usual example of Boris’s anti Muslim bias is his article on banning the burqa, I’m surprised that you missed the point that he was disagreeing with the ban that had been passed by the French.
That is from memory, so please correct me if I have the details wrong.
Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
To have got the other two Doncaster seats would have required assuming a landslide was going to happen.
It made more sense to concentrate on Don Valley.
Likewise to concentrate on Rother Valley and Penistone instead of the other Rotherham and Barnsley seats.
Or again to concentrate on Bolsover (Con maj 5,299) rather than get distracted by Chesterfield (Lab maj 1,451).
Also, the BXP really put huge resources into South Yorkshire, sending out more letters than even Mike Smithson did.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.
James Brokenshire has many detailed plans. What was lacking was central support. He will have it now.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
Trickett Burgon Abbott Lavery Rayner McDonnell Corbyn That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
So who are the next lot?
Surely Abbott would be leader?
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.
You really need to get out of this habit.
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.
You should have kept to conventual puns, surely?
Aw, dammit. That was what I was trying, though...
Clearly, more contemplation was needed.
Autocorrect is bloody annoying at the moment, isn’t it? It keeps altaring what I write too, sometimes with embarrassing results as when I was calling out SeanT Byronic and ‘name’ became ‘Anne.’
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
I agree let’s see a progressive agenda for the UK which leaves no one behind and rewards enterprise, supports equality of opportunity through investment in education and gives any tax breaks available to the lower income brackets. Really no longer care which seats went where it’s about where we go and is also nothing to do with set piece posturing it’s about what you do. Please MPs all go home till the New Year, recover and contemplate the future and come back refreshed to work together when possible and constructively oppose where necessary let’s take this as a new opportunity for the UK not the future of the Tory party.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
I said the same thing after the 2015 GE when PBers were making confident predictions stretching out to 2030.
None of which IIRC mentioned Brexit, Corbyn or Trump.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
doesn't this worry any of you? leadership will be different next time Brexit no longer an issue and an upcoming recession
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.
You wonder if McCluskey will face another challenge. He has screwed up massively.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.
You wonder if McCluskey will face another challenge. He has screwed up massively.
There are other unions. Keep an eye on the GMB and who they back.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?
Where next is in the lap of the gods. When the electorate doesn't want Corbynism because they don't like where that would take us, where the alternative takes us is a matter of 'suck it up' as the expression has it.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
I just had a shock when seeing the result in Hull East for the first time.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
Cheltenham. Lincoln. Probably Ynys Môn. Worcester. Newcastle under Lyme. All three seats in Stoke.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
Isn't Keele Uni in TP's constituency ?
I think York uni is in York Outer.
Carlisle, of course.
But most of these are in the North, and some of them are very small.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
It would be interesting to compare 18-24 voting between University and non-University educated. Do the latter just not vote? Do those that vote vote in the same way or differently? Something often forgotten when talking about "youthquakes" and record turnout. There is still presumably only about 50% of young people going to university.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team. In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.
Student votes as in Canterbury.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea Croydon C Enfield Southgate Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C Gower
Reading E Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.
Aren't the predictions that it will be less big, not smaller.
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?
Where next is in the lap of the gods. When the electorate doesn't want Corbynism because they don't like where that would take us, where the alternative takes us is a matter of 'suck it up' as the expression has it.
It’s a shame it is a unique opportunity for a UK government to actually govern for everybody it has only happened once in my life and the eventually let it slip away but let’s see I’ve fought this war for to long and want an end to tribalism and triumphalism can they just get on with their jobs, keep off the Telly and earn their salary.
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.
Aren't the predictions that it will be less big, not smaller.
Depends what your measuring relative to really. Either way cash is not expected to be plentiful, despite the rhetoric from both parties in this campaign.
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
You might have missed the referendum on leaving the EU, where the leave side secure 52%.
... you may have missed an election 2 days ago with 55% of the vote for parties which would revoke or have a confirmatory referendum.
But they only got only 42% of the seats. As most Tories except Hannan are even more dinosaur-like on the PR issue than Labour, we'll probably have FPTP for another 100 yrs. Do enjoy your unfair majorities (six since 1979 for Tories, only three for Lab).
Comments
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Don't know much about her but I hope she runs (she's also my best betting result that's realistic).
Am I being overly cynical by thinking that the strategy for this election was to lose as many moderate MPs as possible, thus simultaneously a) ensuring Brexit, followed by the loss of all Labour MEPs and b) reducing the nominations threshold for the next leader?
Cummings was playing chess. Milne was trying to lose all of his pawns, and get all his pieces to the left hand side of the board.
Edit: I actually didn't know she got him his seat in 1983. The joke was that she followed that up by nominating him in 2015 to "broaden the debate".
60 gains would be enough to make the Tories a minority again though
For example Claudia Webbe (wrote letter to newspaper defending Ken Livingstone on concentration camp guard issue) and the one who was a Lutfur Rahman protege have I think made it in in safe seats.
Obvs Chris Williamson has been defenestrated, which is excellent.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
Actually Chester went Labour in 2015 so I was mistaken above.
But if you look at the Labour gains from the Conservatives in 2015:
Brentford
Chester
Dewsbury
Ealing C
Enfield N
Ilford N
Lancaster
Wirral W
Wolverhampton SW
Only Dewsbury and Wolverhampton SW were won by the Conservatives in 2019.
With the same pattern of posho remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland among those still Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
But tbh, it should be noted that Labour have always taken Stoke for granted. Look at the Tristram Hunt debacle.
But yes, we are generally much more tolerant than a lot in Labour give us credit for. I mean looking at some of the twitter posts I can see how divorced they are from the mainstream, posting about white supremacy and imperialism etc etc. Forgetting that the working classes in the UK don't think about these things, they just want solid jobs and stuff to put under the tree at Christmas.
https://twitter.com/rebootedstef/status/1205456042370457600?s=21
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Canterbury
Reading E
Oxford W
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/06/nicolas-sarkozys-waterloo-is-his-war-on-islam/
I know you said "using media owned by his friends" but that does seem unnecessarily specific.
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
Come to that, what more reason would they need?
It was the most horribly negative campaign for an excellent reason.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/liberal-democrat
11 seats. Jeez......
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
Canada - I presume you are referring to Trudeau's black face incident? I suggest you ask some actual Canadians of colour. They will tell you there is a noticeable difference between a stupid costume and, say, being a defender and friend of people who spread the Blood Libel,
That is from memory, so please correct me if I have the details wrong.
It made more sense to concentrate on Don Valley.
Likewise to concentrate on Rother Valley and Penistone instead of the other Rotherham and Barnsley seats.
Or again to concentrate on Bolsover (Con maj 5,299) rather than get distracted by Chesterfield (Lab maj 1,451).
Also, the BXP really put huge resources into South Yorkshire, sending out more letters than even Mike Smithson did.
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.
You have to take the ruff with the smooth
Clearly, more contemplation was needed.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
SeanTByronic and ‘name’ became ‘Anne.’It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
I agree let’s see a progressive agenda for the UK which leaves no one behind and rewards enterprise, supports equality of opportunity through investment in education and gives any tax breaks available to the lower income brackets. Really no longer care which seats went where it’s about where we go and is also nothing to do with set piece posturing it’s about what you do. Please MPs all go home till the New Year, recover and contemplate the future and come back refreshed to work together when possible and constructively oppose where necessary let’s take this as a new opportunity for the UK not the future of the Tory party.
None of which IIRC mentioned Brexit, Corbyn or Trump.
I think York uni is in York Outer.
But most of these are in the North, and some of them are very small.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23234033
But they only got only 42% of the seats. As most Tories except Hannan are even more dinosaur-like on the PR issue than Labour, we'll probably have FPTP for another 100 yrs. Do enjoy your unfair majorities (six since 1979 for Tories, only three for Lab).