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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer formally launches his campaign and moves to a 73% chan

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    I loved The Irishman, and would have cut nothing. It’s a masterpiece.
  • kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    Are there any good films on tonight?

    Which channel please?

    The Irishman remains available on Netflix if you’re lost the will to live.
    Not nice?
    Needed somebody to tell Marty "cut an hour and a half out".
    The impression is that he does’t understand that less can mean more. It was beyond dull.
    The last 45 minutes added nothing. Literally, nothing.
    Mark Kermode gave it 4* though....
    Mark Kermode and I share a deep and abiding love for Local Hero and the music of the Comsat Angels. But on Bait and The Irishman, he is just plain wrong...
    ...as he is for "The Exorcist", and "Joker". But he's interesting even when he's wrong, although he can be long-winded.

    The Joker was garbage.
    I saw a positive review of it about how it was like being beaten around the head with a baseball bat, or some such description, which was enough to tell me not to bother with it.

    1917 was pretty good.
    I'm looking forward to that, One will either view it tomorrow or Monday.
  • Is Starmer now a lay? 1.37.

    Just a couple of months ago or so, you would have said it was impossible that Labour members would elect Kier.

    Lay if he goes 1.10.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    edited January 2020

    I loved The Irishman, and would have cut nothing. It’s a masterpiece.

    Myself and that film have something in common then.

    I'm an Irishman and I'm also a masterpiece.
  • Do you guys have a favourite actor?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    I see overqualified PBers continue to misspell the Labour frontrunner’s name.

    Again, it’s K E I R.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Do you guys have a favourite actor?

    Keir Starmer, does a fantastic performance of being a socialist.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Your trade deficit, or surplus, is the consequence of your household savings rate. It is nothing to do with your free trade agreements.

    We have a trade deficit, as a country, because we consume more than we make.

    Swapping an FTA with the EU for one with the US will not change or trade deficit, all it will mean is that we drink more American wine, and less French. To actually lower the trade deficit would require Brits to actually drink less.

    Or drink wine from Sussex, Cornwall and, hard to believe, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire.....
    Sure. But the land in Sussex, Cornwall and Derbyshire is not currently unused. It's being used for something else. If its owners aren't using it to grow grapes, that might be because something else makes more economic sense.

    And if we swap beef or wheat or whatever for grapes, we'll now have a shortfall in those things that will need to be made up for by imports.

    There has only ever been one successful strategy for closing a trade deficit: suppression of consumption. (Or, to put it another way, the encouragement of saving.)
    Without wishing to go down a rabbit hole, it’s a question of value (without taking into account CAP and non-use through set aside.)

    More pertinently, one should remember that the most important type of banana, globally, was bred in Derbyshire. Cavendish.
    My point is a simple one, though: if we switch from an FTA with the EU to one with the US, then that would make no difference to our trade deficit.

    Because trade deficits (and surpluses) are not a consequence of trade policy and tariffs, but of household savings rates.

    We - as people - demand things. The FTAs we have determine where the cheapest place to buy those things is. So, in the event of an FTA with the US (and not one with the EU), we would import more cars from the US, and fewer from Europe.
    You’re assuming cars are perfectly substitutable. I put it to you that a Ford Taurus is not substitutable for a Mercedes S-Class
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    I loved The Irishman, and would have cut nothing. It’s a masterpiece.

    You're easily pleased.......
  • I see overqualified PBers continue to misspell the Labour frontrunner’s name.

    Again, it’s K E I R.

    Piers Morgan is good at acting a fool.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    I see overqualified PBers continue to misspell the Labour frontrunner’s name.

    Again, it’s K E I R.

    Keith ?

    He’s going to win almost unopposed - a coronation for a knight.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    There should be another poll of members soon (conducted by a polling company with Labour List) - it's possible that the shortening of Starmer's price relates to that?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Not according to Corbyn supporters on Twitter. They hate him already and think he’s an evil neoliberal. Kerry Ann Mendoza especially has this odd hatred of him.
    What I am more impress by is his full throated commitment to single market and free movement of labour. It is about time we had a serious opposition that is fully committed to large scale migration, which is a blessing to the UK.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    If the Government are serious about climate change they need to start giving grants like a mo' fo' to domestic homeowners.

    I need a new boiler for my four bed. I've investigated "green" alternatives.

    The best is a ground source heat pump at (wait for it) about £23k with my whole garden being dug up and weeks of work.

    The boiler is about £2k with another £1k for installation and can be done in a day or two.

    Am I still going to go for the GSHP? Am I fuck.

    Judge me. But you'd do exactly the same and unless the government hugely subsidise this it isn't going to happen.

    I worked in this area for nearly 2 years. Designing and overseeing the installation of ground source and air source heat pump systems.

    I would never install a ground source. I would only ever consider an air source and even then I would only consider a high quality European model, not the cheap rubbish British companies try and peddle.

    Ground source works best in district heating schemes where they are professionally maintained and you have economies of scale.
    Really? Interesting. Thanks.

    Can you DM me any information on those?
    My brother-in-law chose an air-source heat pump (and underfloor heating) for his new house. He said the technology on the heat pumps was improving so quickly he left choosing one to the last moment. It's made by Samsung of all people.

    We just don't have the seasonal temperature range to require a ground source. It doesn't get cold enough.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Gabs3 said:

    Not according to Corbyn supporters on Twitter. They hate him already and think he’s an evil neoliberal. Kerry Ann Mendoza especially has this odd hatred of him.
    What I am more impress by is his full throated commitment to single market and free movement of labour. It is about time we had a serious opposition that is fully committed to large scale migration, which is a blessing to the UK.
    Why is it a blessing to the UK?
  • There should be another poll of members soon (conducted by a polling company with Labour List) - it's possible that the shortening of Starmer's price relates to that?

    I don't think they​ update the lists on weekends, the final results will be up on Monday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Do you guys have a favourite actor?

    Keir Starmer, does a fantastic performance of being a socialist.
    He is a social democrat rather than a socialist, Corbyn was a socialist
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    Not according to Corbyn supporters on Twitter. They hate him already and think he’s an evil neoliberal. Kerry Ann Mendoza especially has this odd hatred of him.
    What I am more impress by is his full throated commitment to single market and free movement of labour. It is about time we had a serious opposition that is fully committed to large scale migration, which is a blessing to the UK.
    A Starmer leadership it seems would see Labour commit to return the UK to the full single market unlike Corbyn, albeit not the full EU as yet
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Gabs3 said:

    Not according to Corbyn supporters on Twitter. They hate him already and think he’s an evil neoliberal. Kerry Ann Mendoza especially has this odd hatred of him.
    What I am more impress by is his full throated commitment to single market and free movement of labour. It is about time we had a serious opposition that is fully committed to large scale migration, which is a blessing to the UK.
    How is it?
  • Take care, all.
  • kle4 said:

    Toms said:

    We square jawed types are forceful and reliable, don't you know.

    Curse my weak jaw and poor hairline, I'll never make it in politics!
    Cough, Gove, cough.
  • Are there any good films on tonight?

    Which channel please?

    I just watched (and made my wife watch) The Great Escape.

    On DVD of course.
    Cooler!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    HYUFD said:
    'Look around the western world. Take the major countries, with populations of more than 20 million. There’s not one majority social democratic or socialist government. The nearest are Trudeau or Macron and they’re both centre-ground liberals as much as social democrats.
    The financial crisis did not move people to the traditional left. On cultural issues they moved right; and even on economics, in the USA, for example, the Democrats’ biggest risk is advocating a programme that causes Middle America to re-elect Trump, despite Trump.
    For many, our manifesto did not ignite hope, but fear. It was a vast wishlist. Free this, free that.
    The challenge is to redefine “radical”, rise above populism of old left or right and fashion a new policy agenda, particularly mastery of a 21st-century technological revolution every bit as significant as the 19th-century Industrial Revolution; and building out from that to programmes of social justice and transformation, including on climate change and inequality. Radical only works if allied to understanding the future; and if driven from the centre, where practical solutions replace slogans.'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Are there any good films on tonight?

    Which channel please?

    I just watched (and made my wife watch) The Great Escape.

    On DVD of course.
    Too long for me.
    SMcQ also rides what is clearly a 1960 Triumph Trophy in it. Why didn't they just buy an R75 or KS750? There were still plenty around in the 60s.
  • TGOHF666 said:

    Imagine how furious the woke left will be if Trumps droning of the general brings down the Iranian regime.

    That bringing down of regimes in the middle east thing certainly has a pretty stellar track record.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    Are there any good films on tonight?

    Which channel please?

    My wife and I watched “Dirty Dancing” earlier this evening. I’d never seen it before but really enjoyed it. A “feel good” film with some great songs and dance sequences. And the end of the film is particularly uplifting. 😀
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Are there any good films on tonight?

    Which channel please?

    I just watched (and made my wife watch) The Great Escape.

    On DVD of course.
    Too long for me.
    SMcQ also rides what is clearly a 1960 Triumph Trophy in it. Why didn't they just buy an R75 or KS750? There were still plenty around in the 60s.
    Watching that Guy Martin thing on repoducing the jump (it was a bit overlong so didn't watch all of it in the end) they understandably wanted something with a swing arm and rear shocks.
  • TGOHF666 said:

    Imagine how furious the woke left will be if Trumps droning of the general brings down the Iranian regime.

    That bringing down of regimes in the middle east thing certainly has a pretty stellar track record.
    The programme on Trajan tonight on the history channel (which was pretty mediocre) pointed out that even back then, Emperors had a habit of fighting unnecessary wars against Middle Eastern Empires which they won pretty easily and then lost the peace. You would think after 2000 years someone might learn the lesson and leave well alone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    HYUFD said:
    I'm pretty sceptical of that poll: no way are Sanders + Warren on just 29%
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm pretty sceptical of that poll: no way are Sanders + Warren on just 29%
    There are a lot of Pete-Warren switchers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    justin124 said:

    I expect to face some ridicule in respect of what I am about to say - but no matter!
    Astrology is a subject about which I have come to have a very open mind - despite my reasoning telling me that it is a load of codswallop. I do not claim to be a firm believer and cannot offer an obvious. explanation for what I am about to relate. For three years I have been in contact with a guy who operates as an astrologer and psychic in India - though we have never met. In late April and early May 2017 I informed him of my very deeply held fears for the pending General Election. He sought to console me and asserted with great confidence that I would be far more satisfied with the election result than I expected. This was when the Tories were 20% plus ahead in the polls.We all know what happened in June 2017.
    A year later I contacted him in respect of my anxiety for a brother about to receive a kidney transplant from his wife. He bluntly told me not to expect a successful outcome and- despite the surgery being successful - within three months it became clear that the transplant had failed forcing my brother to rely on dialysis.
    Last summer I contacted him again regarding the political turmoil in the UK. He replied to the effect that Johnson had 'luck' very much with him , that an election would not be a repeat of 2017 - and that Corbyn would lose decisively. I did provide him with the Date of Birth of both leaders. Beyond that he does not have a good feeling re-Johnson , and is firm in his view that he will only have one term.
    Make of that what you will - but it is 100% true.

    As the old saying goes...Astrologists exist to give Economists a good name.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    New Thread
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