p.s. Take it that everybody else has noted 6 February in their diaries?I have - its the day of my pacemaker operation !!!!!!
You articulate a point I've been struggling to get across here for a while.The belief 'polls would automatically narrow' was always slightly odd given there were good reasons governments outperformed mid-term polls that do not necessarily imply. Namely, that governments tended to get their unpopular stuff and have their teething problems early in a term, then ensure there were some goodies by the election.Labour leads by 23%.The way I see this year is the Tories had up to 10 months to turn around the polls meaningfully (e.g. to sub 10% leads) to have a chance of a respectable performance.
Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan):
Labour 45% (+1)
Conservative 22% (-3)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 14 Jan
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1749477021477200364?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
The first month of the year it looks like they'll have see gone backwards.
The clock is ticking down...
Sunak hasn't been able to, for reasons both out of control and of the Tories' making. Hence the oddness of his messaging. You're supposed to have done the 'tough decisions' and so can do the giveaways by now. But veers between trying to sound like he is, and attempts to throw Tories red meat.
Labour is unlikely to match its biggest leads, as there's something self-correcting there in that if people believe the Tories are getting thumped some loyalists come back, and others shrug a bit.
The current rule is that you cannot vote if you have not lived in this country for 15 years. That does not seem an unreasonable rule, if anything it is a tad generous. Those who vote in this country should live in this country and suffer the consequences of those votes. The likes of Brian Cox who would vote SNP but has avoided SNP enhanced taxes for more than that period has no right to be making choices for us poor benighted souls who are still living here under their thumb....Extremely dodgy. If you allow expatriates to vote it should be to overseas constituencies, which is how it is done in France.If you read Pippa Crear's article it all smells a bit whiffy. 2.2m extra predominantly Tory voters placed in marginal seats by CCHQ could turn the election on its head.No one who has lived outside this country for 15 years or more* - unless it was on specific UK Government business or armed forces - should have the right to vote in a UK election. If they want to vote they should move back to the UK permanently.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/22/tories-hire-coordinator-to-get-expat-supporters-to-vote-in-general-electionDo I not like the sound of this.
'An extra 2.2 million overseas voters who have lived abroad for more than 15 years regained the right to vote in UK elections last Tuesday, after a statutory instrument that was approved by parliament in late December almost unnoticed came into force.
The expansion means they will be able to register in the constituency of the last address at which they were resident if they are able to provide relevant documentation, or failing that, through local records or on the word of an eligible British resident.
They will then be able to vote by proxy, with one proxy voter able to vote on behalf of as many as four overseas voters.
The Electoral Commission raised concerns in response to an earlier consultation in 2016 that voters “might be tempted to choose a marginal seat they had once lived in rather than a safe seat even if it had not been the last address they lived at before leaving”.
Concerns were also raised about the difficulty of checking information and the potential for fraud.'
"Our chaps need a helping hand, Labour are miles ahead. Can we put you down for Don Valley?"
*Personally I would prefer if that were reduced to less than 10 years
The Conservatives could be way down in percentage points but smashing the seats won out of the park.
Trebles all 'round!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constituencies_for_French_residents_overseas
No one who has lived outside this country for 15 years or more* - unless it was on specific UK Government business or armed forces - should have the right to vote in a UK election. If they want to vote they should move back to the UK permanently.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/22/tories-hire-coordinator-to-get-expat-supporters-to-vote-in-general-electionDo I not like the sound of this.
'An extra 2.2 million overseas voters who have lived abroad for more than 15 years regained the right to vote in UK elections last Tuesday, after a statutory instrument that was approved by parliament in late December almost unnoticed came into force.
The expansion means they will be able to register in the constituency of the last address at which they were resident if they are able to provide relevant documentation, or failing that, through local records or on the word of an eligible British resident.
They will then be able to vote by proxy, with one proxy voter able to vote on behalf of as many as four overseas voters.
The Electoral Commission raised concerns in response to an earlier consultation in 2016 that voters “might be tempted to choose a marginal seat they had once lived in rather than a safe seat even if it had not been the last address they lived at before leaving”.
Concerns were also raised about the difficulty of checking information and the potential for fraud.'
"Our chaps need a helping hand, Labour are miles ahead. Can we put you down for Don Valley?"
It's Pot vs Kettle, innit?Not exactly.
That a pair of senile, doddery old fuckers are the only choices for Leader Of The Free World tells us all we need to know about the current state of US politics and the nation in general.
Whoever gets in, we'd better hope that their VP pick is sound, as I think America will be needing them before the next term is over.
Labour leads by 23%.Surprisingly good for Labour considering what a useless PM SKS has been.
Lowest Conservative % since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Westminster Voting Intention (21 Jan):
Labour 45% (+1)
Conservative 22% (-3)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 14 Jan
https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1749477021477200364?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g