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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    MikeK said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    If next year's EPP elections is UKIP's high water mark, that will coincide with the local elections where the majority of the LD's remaining local government base are up for re-election.

    Will the LDs as a political force, still be around when these seats are re-contested?

    Stodge, you are being, for want of an earthier word, stodgy. Trouble is that you refuse to face the possibility that UKIP will succeed in it's endeavours and eventually replace one of the existing parties. You are terribly afraid it may be your's. Stiff upper lip, old man!

    The political graveyard is full of parties which thought they could "break through" from Mosley's New Party right through to the Owenite SDP. Even a significant schism in Labour's ranks in 1981 failed ultimately to break the duopoly. The biggest political event of the 20th Century was the emergence of Labour and its takeover of the second spot from the Liberals. If you seriously believe that UKIP, in its current form, is going to replace one of the existing parties, then I suggest you remove the rose-tinted spectacles, stop eyeballing UKIP propaganda and UKIP websites, step outside and enjoy the day.

    The Conservatives should, if they know their history, understand the consequences of schism. They will either absorb UKIP as they did the Liberal Nationals and the National Liberals or they will run you over once they are back in Opposition. The gains made by third or protest parties in times of Conservative Government are much harder to sustain in periods of Labour Government.

    The Liberals survived 2.5% of the vote and just 6 seats in the 1950s and fewer than 100 Councillors nationally. The SDP still exists in patches - that's survival, not relevance admittedly but survival. The LDs have a heartland or two to retreat back to - UKIP doesn't.

    Your best "hope" of survival is a catastrophic defeat for Cameron in 2015 which would allow a pro-UKIP putsch to take place within the shattered remnants. I don't think that's likely. The alternative is for you to enjoy your moment in the sun, accept the disappointment of either futile opposition or annihilation in 2015 and then try to eke out an existence on the margins and wait for the next favourable tide or the offer of merger from a Conservative leader in say 2017.



  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    edited May 2013
    My my this James kelly is boring insufferable isn't he?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    @Socrates No, I never supported the Euro. It's that kind of attention to detail that marks out the UKIPpers.

    I wasn't sure, which is why I asked it as a question rather than a claim. I do try to remember other's positions but there are a lot of posters on here and, no offence, you're not more notable than anyone else.
    antifrank said:

    On UKIP's main plank of EU membership, has UKIP yet decided whether the UK should be in the EEA (in which case its control over immigration is no greater than the government has at present) or completely outside the EEA? Or is it in the category of inconvenient points of detail that will be worked out later?

    I agree there has been insufficient clarity publicly here, but they are no less clear than the Conservatives, who are yet to decide what they want repatriated and what they don't. Equally, Labour and the Lib Dems have remained vague on whether they want to join the Euro or not in the long term.
    antifrank said:

    The idea that the UK does not punish criminals is quite bonkers. And with steadily falling crime rates, the idea that we need to change tack is also bonkers. But UKIP specialise in evidence-free policy-making.

    Sure, we punish criminals, but nowhere nearly sufficient for the crime. People can engage in outright sexual slavery and be out on the streets in less than a decade. And during that decade they get pool tables and TVs, better facilities than exist in many hostels.

    That you're content with this graph shows the mediocrity of expectations in this country:

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47727000/gif/_47727330_crime_1898_09_466.gif

    Crime is higher now than it was for the majority of the 20th century. It's simply not good enough.

    There's also nothing "evidence free" about long prison sentences. Most of the academic evidence says that longer prison sentences both reduces reoffending rates and deters crime. This is also backed up by the views of criminals and former criminals. I have done charity work with ex-offenders and they overwhelmingly support longer prison sentences. SeanT has also confirmed this is his experience of prisoner's views.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    stodge said:

    MikeK said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    If next year's EPP elections is UKIP's high water mark, that will coincide with the local elections where the majority of the LD's remaining local government base are up for re-election.

    Will the LDs as a political force, still be around when these seats are re-contested?

    Stodge, you are being, for want of an earthier word, stodgy. Trouble is that you refuse to face the possibility that UKIP will succeed in it's endeavours and eventually replace one of the existing parties. You are terribly afraid it may be your's. Stiff upper lip, old man!

    The political graveyard is full of parties which thought they could "break through" from Mosley's New Party right through to the Owenite SDP. Even a significant schism in Labour's ranks in 1981 failed ultimately to break the duopoly. The biggest political event of the 20th Century was the emergence of Labour and its takeover of the second spot from the Liberals. If you seriously believe that UKIP, in its current form, is going to replace one of the existing parties, then I suggest you remove the rose-tinted spectacles, stop eyeballing UKIP propaganda and UKIP websites, step outside and enjoy the day.

    The Conservatives should, if they know their history, understand the consequences of schism. They will either absorb UKIP as they did the Liberal Nationals and the National Liberals or they will run you over once they are back in Opposition. The gains made by third or protest parties in times of Conservative Government are much harder to sustain in periods of Labour Government.

    The Liberals survived 2.5% of the vote and just 6 seats in the 1950s and fewer than 100 Councillors nationally. The SDP still exists in patches - that's survival, not relevance admittedly but survival. The LDs have a heartland or two to retreat back to - UKIP doesn't.

    Your best "hope" of survival is a catastrophic defeat for Cameron in 2015 which would allow a pro-UKIP putsch to take place within the shattered remnants. I don't think that's likely. The alternative is for you to enjoy your moment in the sun, accept the disappointment of either futile opposition or annihilation in 2015 and then try to eke out an existence on the margins and wait for the next favourable tide or the offer of merger from a Conservative leader in say 2017.
    Do any of these LD heartlands have elections tomorrow?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    antifrank said:

    But UKIP specialise in evidence-free policy-making.

    Much like most of your posts Antifrank.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    stodge said:

    MikeK said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    If next year's EPP elections is UKIP's high water mark, that will coincide with the local elections where the majority of the LD's remaining local government base are up for re-election.

    Will the LDs as a political force, still be around when these seats are re-contested?

    Stodge, you are being, for want of an earthier word, stodgy. Trouble is that you refuse to face the possibility that UKIP will succeed in it's endeavours and eventually replace one of the existing parties. You are terribly afraid it may be your's. Stiff upper lip, old man!

    The political graveyard is full of parties which thought they could "break through" from Mosley's New Party right through to the Owenite SDP. Even a significant schism in Labour's ranks in 1981 failed ultimately to break the duopoly. The biggest political event of the 20th Century was the emergence of Labour and its takeover of the second spot from the Liberals. If you seriously believe that UKIP, in its current form, is going to replace one of the existing parties, then I suggest you remove the rose-tinted spectacles, stop eyeballing UKIP propaganda and UKIP websites, step outside and enjoy the day.

    The Conservatives should, if they know their history, understand the consequences of schism. They will either absorb UKIP as they did the Liberal Nationals and the National Liberals or they will run you over once they are back in Opposition. The gains made by third or protest parties in times of Conservative Government are much harder to sustain in periods of Labour Government.

    The Liberals survived 2.5% of the vote and just 6 seats in the 1950s and fewer than 100 Councillors nationally. The SDP still exists in patches - that's survival, not relevance admittedly but survival. The LDs have a heartland or two to retreat back to - UKIP doesn't.

    Your best "hope" of survival is a catastrophic defeat for Cameron in 2015 which would allow a pro-UKIP putsch to take place within the shattered remnants. I don't think that's likely. The alternative is for you to enjoy your moment in the sun, accept the disappointment of either futile opposition or annihilation in 2015 and then try to eke out an existence on the margins and wait for the next favourable tide or the offer of merger from a Conservative leader in say 2017.
    Do any of these LD heartlands have elections tomorrow?
    I'm hoping (but it's no more than that) that the party's performance in the south and south-west will suggest a degree of resilience. There will be losses in the north and elsewhere to Labour - as for losses to the Conservatives, there will doubtless be some but perhaps offset by a few gains, I really don't know.

    As with other parties, I suspect that once the Lib Dems are no longer in Government, the local council base will recover - it did after the routs of the 1970s. The Conservatives were smashed locally through the 1990s but recovered strongly once in Opposition. Labour was badly mauled in local Government in the 2000s but has come back since 2010.

  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282

    Ah, I see that Anthony Wells has corrected his mistake in line with the point I've made about the number of seats being contested by UKIP (he was previously suggesting the ComRes poll would mean UKIP winning 250+ seats):


    UPDATE: Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7372/comment-page-2#comments

    Going back to Comres and the extreme swings it shows since 2009 looking at UKIP first in 2009 the avereage share in contested seats (a quarter) seats was 16%.The 22% share for 2009 would presumably be average across all seats being contested.Thus the share in the 3/4 UKIP are now contesting would be 22 divided3/4= 29%.Thus an incresase in share compared to 2009 contetsed seatsof 13%.
    In doing my calculations of UKIP gains ie used a 10 swing from the Tories to Ukip looked at vote shares in each ward and came up with 98 gains including a few from Lib dems and Labour.
    I find the labour gain of 13% probably a bit on the high side compared to national poll changes.The figures of -14% and -13% for the Lib dems look nearly double the changes in their national poll ratings since 2009.Thjey are more similar to the declines shown at Eastleigh!


  • @stodge

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    Poor you. You clearly are having problems reconciling the possibility that the Libdems could be relegated to becoming the 4th party in British politics. Your post is bereft of sound reasoning. The primary reason for UKIP's rise is that a growing section of the electorate are rejecting the Westminster consensus and everything they represent and see UKIP as the only vehicle to break that consensus up and not least its subservience to Brussels so whilst you may fantasise about the early demise of UKIP, I'd suggest that unless one of the major parties morphs into UKIP's twin and adopts an almost equally anti political establishment position UKIP is around for the long haul.

    That is particularly difficult for the establishment parties given that the vast majority of those supporting UKIP likely don't believe a word the establishment parties say and wouldn't trust them as far as they could throw Big Ben.

    Not only that but with the return of Labour to power UKIP carry on attacking the continuation of the pro-EU, pro centralisation, debt addicted big government, statist, high tax Westminster consensus. 2015 changes very little as some UKIP supporters clumsily call them the 'LibLabCon' will still be in power

    Furthermore, if you hadn't noticed Cameron is pro-EU. Even if the miracle occurs and he does somehow stay in power and call a referendum who do you think will be one of the most high profile leaders of the withdrawal movement? Farage. He will be the only leader of a significant national party who will oppose the deal. Cameron willbe tied into any deal made and Labour and Libdems will standing for anything that ensures our future serfdom under Brussels.

    There is little chance that what Cameron would negotiate would come close to addressing the expectations of most Eurosceptics (which would require tearing up Lisbon). Such a referendum actually gives Farage a massive platform to further build his and UKIP's reputation. Imagine if such a referendum votes even 2:1 for staying in on Cameron's deal. That's double the vote voting against that UKIP is currently polling. Whilst voting to stay in would be a setback the arrogant and contemptible nature of the EU ensures it will never be the end of the story. Its quite possible even in defeat UKIP could expand their base and further eat in to the major parties vote.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    @stodge

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    Poor you. You clearly are having problems reconciling the possibility that the Libdems could be relegated to becoming the 4th party in British politics. Your post is bereft of sound reasoning. The primary reason for UKIP's rise is that a growing section of the electorate are rejecting the Westminster consensus and everything they represent and see UKIP as the only vehicle to break that consensus up and not least its subservience to Brussels so whilst you may fantasise about the early demise of UKIP, I'd suggest that unless one of the major parties morphs into UKIP's twin and adopts an almost equally anti political establishment position UKIP is around for the long haul.

    That is particularly difficult for the establishment parties given that the vast majority of those supporting UKIP likely don't believe a word the establishment parties say and wouldn't trust them as far as they could throw Big Ben.

    Not only that but with the return of Labour to power UKIP carry on attacking the continuation of the pro-EU, pro centralisation, debt addicted big government, statist, high tax Westminster consensus. 2015 changes very little as some UKIP supporters clumsily call them the 'LibLabCon' will still be in power

    Furthermore, if you hadn't noticed Cameron is pro-EU. Even if the miracle occurs and he does somehow stay in power and call a referendum who do you think will be one of the most high profile leaders of the withdrawal movement? Farage. He will be the only leader of a significant national party who will oppose the deal. Cameron willbe tied into any deal made and Labour and Libdems will standing for anything that ensures our future serfdom under Brussels.

    There is little chance that what Cameron would negotiate would come close to addressing the expectations of most Eurosceptics (which would require tearing up Lisbon). Such a referendum actually gives Farage a massive platform to further build his and UKIP's reputation. Imagine if such a referendum votes even 2:1 for staying in on Cameron's deal. That's double the vote voting against that UKIP is currently polling. Whilst voting to stay in would be a setback the arrogant and contemptible nature of the EU ensures it will never be the end of the story. Its quite possible even in defeat UKIP could expand their base and further eat in to the major parties vote.

    The Liberal Democrats have been the fourth party before - we had the Greens, the Owenite SDP and in some constituencies the BNP all beating us. We may well be the fourth party for a while or at least until 2015. Longer term, let's see.

    I'd also say that as Avery is fond of pointing out ad nauseam, there are signs that the economy (always the most important issue) is starting to improve. It's amazing how many people stop protesting and complaining when the economy is going well. I appreciate you won't. If Labour win a big majority, UKIP (along with the Lib Dems) is an irrelevance until 2020 and the Conservatives will have plenty of time and money to spend on either killing you with kindness or just wiping you out electorally.

    I don't know what deal Cameron will come back with and neither do you. I know how will you vote in any referendum and I suspect you have an idea how I will but that doesn't matter. The central question remains - what happens to UKIP if we vote to stay in the EU and what happens if we vote to come out? Why do you assume that everyone who automatically votes No to a deal is a UKIP supporter - that's not an assumption I would make.

    The other problem UKIP has is that the comfy chair of Opposition is easy - I suspect that IF you had to get into Government and get your hands dirty, you'd find it as tough an experience as the Liberal Democrats have and your support would melt away as ice cream on a hot summer's day.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    antifrank said:

    UKIP specialise in evidence-free policy-making.

    Probably better than New Labour which specialised in policy based evidence....
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    Thats a very interesting poll Mike and thanks for putting it up.In a sense it articulates my frustration with UKIP and certain right wing MP's of my Party who amongst other things have decreed that to be a "true tory" you have to regard global warming as a scam, be utterly oopposed to windfarms as well as being wholly hostile to the EU. I have no objection whatsoever to anybody as a Conservative taking all of those positions but to say if you don;t you are not a true Conservtiave is frankly bonkers.And in essence that sums up the problem those of us have in trying to reunite the Right Wing family which until the ousting of Maggie was a broad church with different strands in the ascendancvy from time to time(as per the labour party) but all accepting that compromise and unity was essential if a Govt of right wing principle was ever to be elected. UKIP and sadly others (such as Norman Tebbit) have blown that sky high so it seems to me at present just about impossible to reach the sort of deal which would satisfy not just Kippers but even more importantly the great majority of Conservative voters who as this poll shows don;t have an inbuilt rejection of windfarms but like me would always want it evidence based.However do have a very real concern about global warming and climate change and fail to see why Nigel Lawson (an excellent Chancellor)somehow should be given more credibility on the matter than the scientific community. If we as a Party go down the UKIP road what polls like this prove is that a whole lot of us will be lost to the Party and that almost certainly includes people like me who first cut their teeth as a teenager cavasser for the Tories in the middle of the Profumo affair!.This heresy hunting, sectarianism has to stop if any progres is to be made or else all that will happen is that UKIP will ensure that the one thing they say thgey want - an EU referendum- will never take place.
    It is like Militant tendency in the 80'swith their demands that people whio didn't sign up to their agenda were not true Labour people.
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