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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014

Kingstanding on Birmingham (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 77, Conservative 28, Liberal Democrats 15 (Labour overall majority of 34)
Result of ward in last electoral cycle (2010 – 2012)
2010: Lab 3,372, Con 2,792, BNP 891, Lib Dem 866, National Front 160, Green 103
2011: Lab 2,210, Con 2,035, BNP 344, Lib Dem 128, Green 121
2012:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    I am shattered: Good-luck puntahs!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r5pb_pFcik

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    You do need to bear in mind that according to most polls, Scots want to stay in the UK.

    CyberNats are like Cyberkippers. They confuse their own passion and vitrol with widespread support. They are so obsessed that they fail to recognise that others think differently.
    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Where's the new currency?
    Where's the Scottie?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    foxinsoxuk said:

    You do need to bear in mind that according to most polls, Scots want to stay in the UK.

    CyberNats are like Cyberkippers. They confuse their own passion and vitrol with widespread support. They are so obsessed that they fail to recognise that others think differently.

    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    But why has the no campaign been so relentlessly negative? They might as well have got Iain Paisley involved.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    I can't stay up sadly, but does anyone know when an announcement is expected in W&SE?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 21m
    Contrary to Reports, UKIP Still On Course for Second Tonight http://guyfawk.es/1eWtYwW
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2014
    The yes campaign has been pretty negative too. Look at the bile poured out today.

    Most political campaigns are pretty negative, with the core theme that " the opposition will wreck everything you hold dear". Why should refereda be different? It was pretty negative on both sides on AV also. Any BOO referendum would be very negative on each side; or would you see the political habits of a lifetime change?
    FrankBooth said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    You do need to bear in mind that according to most polls, Scots want to stay in the UK.

    CyberNats are like Cyberkippers. They confuse their own passion and vitrol with widespread support. They are so obsessed that they fail to recognise that others think differently.

    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    But why has the no campaign been so relentlessly negative? They might as well have got Iain Paisley involved.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Quincel said:

    I can't stay up sadly, but does anyone know when an announcement is expected in W&SE?

    Given that the deciding factor seems to be early postal voting you wonder why they can't announce the results before 10pm.

  • TheLastBoyScoutTheLastBoyScout Posts: 675
    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    Absolutely brilliant post.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Just realised it's only one week till my own local election. Just checked my polling card in case it was today, but no it the 20th. Strangely my housemate who moved out in the summer got sent a polling card too which seemed odd since we filled in the register in the Autumn without his name on it.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 894
    Quincel said:

    I can't stay up sadly, but does anyone know when an announcement is expected in W&SE?


    Between 1am and 2am...

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-wythenshawe-sale-east-by-election-6708027
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The Kingstanding byelection looks interesting, much more marginal than the Westminster one. Does anyone know the ward? Is it representative of the midlands marginal seats that will be key to 2015?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.

    Bah, a check of the QT site finds that whoever suggested Andrew Neil was on as a guest was telling porkies.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    @foxinsoxuk
    Negativity is unattractive in any campaign, but in a sense it matters less in this - No is "default - carry on (pretty much) as now". No doesn't have to really sell anything. It's the Yes campaign who have to sell something, a new thing - who should have a positive message. They don't really seem to have it.
    Maybe the strategy is, consciously or part-consciously, to create sufficient rancour that a parting of the ways seems natural. Perhaps it will work.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    When the SNP lost its last indy ref, the rancour was mostly internal. They fought like ferrets in a sack, until Salmond arose to lead them again a generation later.

    I suspect they will do so again. Revolutions eat themselves, even unsuccessful ones.
    Fat_Steve said:

    @foxinsoxuk
    Negativity is unattractive in any campaign, but in a sense it matters less in this - No is "default - carry on (pretty much) as now". No doesn't have to really sell anything. It's the Yes campaign who have to sell something, a new thing - who should have a positive message. They don't really seem to have it.
    Maybe the strategy is, consciously or part-consciously, to create sufficient rancour that a parting of the ways seems natural. Perhaps it will work.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.

    Bah, a check of the QT site finds that whoever suggested Andrew Neil was on as a guest was telling porkies.

    Don't worry, he'll be on This Week just after QT ;-) Prepare the Blue Nun!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    FrankBooth said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    You do need to bear in mind that according to most polls, Scots want to stay in the UK.

    CyberNats are like Cyberkippers. They confuse their own passion and vitrol with widespread support. They are so obsessed that they fail to recognise that others think differently.

    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    But why has the no campaign been so relentlessly negative? They might as well have got Iain Paisley involved.
    I can't immediately see what there is to be positive about - can you thing of any current Anglo Scottish joint ventures which wouldn't be there but for the union? Plus to be fair they are arbitrarily forced into being the "no" party by the question wording.

    Equally and oppositely I am waiting for Eck to display the Vision Thing, with an increasing sense of disappointment. Where is his "Ask not what an independent Scotland can do for you, but what you can do for an independent Scotland" speech? Because something like that could tip the balance.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Fat_Steve said:

    @foxinsoxuk
    Negativity is unattractive in any campaign, but in a sense it matters less in this - No is "default - carry on (pretty much) as now". No doesn't have to really sell anything. It's the Yes campaign who have to sell something, a new thing - who should have a positive message. They don't really seem to have it.

    Marvellous complacency. You should be proud to know that this is precisely the same attitude labour had months out from 2011. Everything was going fine. The negative campaign would see them win easily and nothing could possibly go wrong. Even when the polls began to narrow they had a solution. Double down on the negativity.

    Didn't turn out too well for them when the scottish public decisively looked at what was on offer in the final weeks of that campaign. Labour's ground campaign was also nowhere near as good as they thought it was. You'll be pleased to know that some of the exact same 'masterminds' behind that 2011 campaign are right back in place for the Independence referendum campaign. Even Iain Gray is back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. D, I haven't watched QT or This Week for ages.
  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    Why don’t they have their own currency and peg it to the British pound. Some of us can remember this working for decades in Ireland. When I used taxis in Dublin in the 1970s I just paid in sterling. Parity was maintained between the currencies. It means they have to follow UK economic and monetary policies, but they would have to do that that and more in a currency union anyhow. Aren’t they missing a trick? They could even call it the Scottish National Pound or the SNP for shot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    I think Cameron made a fairly good positive case but I do agree that north of the border there has been too much emphasis on the negative.

    I will vote no because I am British and proud to be so.
    I am proud to be a citizen of a country that has such an illustrious history and still plays a major role in world affairs.
    I think the UK is a great force for good in the world. Like every country we make mistakes but I think as a country we genuinely mean well and have done good. Our aid to Syria is a recent example.
    I think being a part of the Union gives Scots a range of opportunities for advancement and success they would not have in a small country like Scotland. Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling are obvious examples in politics but there are many other examples in business, commerce and culture.
    There are opportunities to grow businesses in Scotland as a part of the UK I do not believe would exist in an independent Scotland.
    I think we have far more in common as a country than we have dividing us. We largely share the same values, principles and language.
    I think we are much stronger together and are able to assist each other in times of hardship. We also have far greater control over our own affairs as the United Kingdom than Scotland would have alone. Within the EU we are a big beast. According to some economists with 20-30 years we may be the biggest beast of all. We can generally stop what we do not like.
    Scotland would risk becoming an insignificant backwater if it was independent. To take the example of Syria again what is Denmark's policy or Portugal's policy? Who cares? Who cares how they vote in the Council of Ministers? They have no say. I would not want my children to grow up in such an insignificant country.

    I can see that there is a counterargument: the old Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times. But do do we really want to be such bit players? I am ambitious for Scotland's future. I strongly believe that future is much brighter as a part of a successful union.


  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Nothing has budged in the Wythenshawe 2nd place odds today.Ladbrokes still have UKIP at 1-3 with the Tories at 5-2.By now if there was any Tory confidence it ought to be picked up in the betting.
    Also,Bet Victor have opened up odds based on bandings of Yes vote percentage.30-34 is 9-4 fav and it is 7-2 the 2 bandings both up and down.A Dutched bet covering 30-44 offers a profit of 89% of stake.
    The best available on No is now 1-4.That looks about right.
    If there is to be a swing to the Nats. there's no sign of it yet and for those who believe in the Yes vote gaining momentum over the summer,there is value.
  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    MP -Why is a refusal to contemplate a currency union negative and an attempt to coerce the Scots into supporting the union; whereas a refusal to contemplate sharing the national debt is not an attempt to coerce the rest of the UK into agreeing to a currency union?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    DavidL said:


    I think being a part of the Union gives Scots a range of opportunities for advancement and success they would not have in a small country like Scotland. Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling are obvious examples in politics but there are many other examples in business, commerce and culture.

    ROFL

    Absolutely priceless.

    You have to hand it to PB tories.

    They just can't help themselves and they don't even seem to have a clue they are doing it.

    It's quite the puzzle why there are more pandas than tory MPs in scotland.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. Fernando, quite so (and good luck in your duel with Raikkonen this year).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348
    Just been to vote in the WSE by-election. The polling station (in Sale East) was rather busier than on previous occasions - busier even than when I voted at the general election - but that may of course just be a fluke of timing. And it still wasn't as if there were queues or anything of that sort. Still, I think my prediction of 30% may be a little on the low side. It's been a nice day today - perhaps that's helped.
    Only one rosetted individual there - a very friendly heavily-bearded Asian man from UKIP. UKIP's ground operation clearly not as poor as has been suggested.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Morris Dancer

    Glad you are on, Mr D..

    I have been re-reading Sir Edric's Temple again, and I am pleased to find there are still things that I missed in earlier reads - aside from the classics I can't think of many books where that has happened to me, not even the early Tom Sharpe's.

    So what was this freak llama accident that killed Sir Edric's uncle?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    edited February 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    DavidL said:


    I think being a part of the Union gives Scots a range of opportunities for advancement and success they would not have in a small country like Scotland. Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling are obvious examples in politics but there are many other examples in business, commerce and culture.

    ROFL

    Absolutely priceless.

    You have to hand it to PB tories.

    They just can't help themselves and they don't have a clue they are doing it.

    It's quite the puzzle why there are more pandas than tory MPs in scotland.
    No unspoofable or even a chortle Mick? I am disappointed. "Priceless" is pretty 10 a penny.

    Edit still got a panda though.

  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    DavidL said:

    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    I think Cameron made a fairly good positive case but I do agree that north of the border there has been too much emphasis on the negative.

    I will vote no because I am British and proud to be so.
    I am proud to be a citizen of a country that has such an illustrious history and still plays a major role in world affairs.
    I think the UK is a great force for good in the world. Like every country we make mistakes but I think as a country we genuinely mean well and have done good. Our aid to Syria is a recent example.
    I think being a part of the Union gives Scots a range of opportunities for advancement and success they would not have in a small country like Scotland. Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling are obvious examples in politics but there are many other examples in business, commerce and culture.
    There are opportunities to grow businesses in Scotland as a part of the UK I do not believe would exist in an independent Scotland.
    I think we have far more in common as a country than we have dividing us. We largely share the same values, principles and language.
    I think we are much stronger together and are able to assist each other in times of hardship. We also have far greater control over our own affairs as the United Kingdom than Scotland would have alone. Within the EU we are a big beast. According to some economists with 20-30 years we may be the biggest beast of all. We can generally stop what we do not like.
    Scotland would risk becoming an insignificant backwater if it was independent. To take the example of Syria again what is Denmark's policy or Portugal's policy? Who cares? Who cares how they vote in the Council of Ministers? They have no say. I would not want my children to grow up in such an insignificant country.

    I can see that there is a counterargument: the old Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times. But do do we really want to be such bit players? I am ambitious for Scotland's future. I strongly believe that future is much brighter as a part of a successful union.


    If you're offering Gordon Brown up as a reason to be proud of Scottish achievement in Britain, I'd hate to see an example of a failed Scots Brit!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The BNP got 3.9% in Wythenshawe and Sale East in 2010. They've put up an experienced - and suitably controversial - candidate this time. A nice side story to watch for tonight in the run up to the Euros.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    DavidL said:

    FrankBooth said:

    If fear is the only thing keeping Scotland in the UK the union feels like it's lost any meaning, so this south Britain dweller feels. Has anyone actually made a positive case for the Union in Scotland?

    Who wants to spend the rest of their life married to someone who's only there because they are afraid to leave?

    I think Cameron made a fairly good positive case but I do agree that north of the border there has been too much emphasis on the negative.

    I will vote no because I am British and proud to be so.
    I am proud to be a citizen of a country that has such an illustrious history and still plays a major role in world affairs.
    I think the UK is a great force for good in the world. Like every country we make mistakes but I think as a country we genuinely mean well and have done good. Our aid to Syria is a recent example.
    I think being a part of the Union gives Scots a range of opportunities for advancement and success they would not have in a small country like Scotland. Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling are obvious examples in politics but there are many other examples in business, commerce and culture.
    There are opportunities to grow businesses in Scotland as a part of the UK I do not believe would exist in an independent Scotland.
    I think we have far more in common as a country than we have dividing us. We largely share the same values, principles and language.
    I think we are much stronger together and are able to assist each other in times of hardship. We also have far greater control over our own affairs as the United Kingdom than Scotland would have alone. Within the EU we are a big beast. According to some economists with 20-30 years we may be the biggest beast of all. We can generally stop what we do not like.
    Scotland would risk becoming an insignificant backwater if it was independent. To take the example of Syria again what is Denmark's policy or Portugal's policy? Who cares? Who cares how they vote in the Council of Ministers? They have no say. I would not want my children to grow up in such an insignificant country.

    I can see that there is a counterargument: the old Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times. But do do we really want to be such bit players? I am ambitious for Scotland's future. I strongly believe that future is much brighter as a part of a successful union.


    If you're offering Gordon Brown up as a reason to be proud of Scottish achievement in Britain, I'd hate to see an example of a failed Scots Brit!
    At the risk of giving too much away I am not a fan of Gordon Brown. But he is a recent demonstration that the Union offers Scots the opportunity to lead this great country of ours.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Mr. Llama, I can't possibly reveal that, or anything about Dog's origin/relationship with the Ursk.

    More might be revealed in Treasure (Orff is probably going to be a travelling companion). Incidentally, there are perhaps some jokes in there that, er, shouldn't be. When I called a horse Hamilton's Trousers I forgot that it could lead to lines about Lysandra stroking Hamilton's Trousers or mounting Hamilton's Trousers.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 894
    Grandiose said:

    The BNP got 3.9% in Wythenshawe and Sale East in 2010. They've put up an experienced - and suitably controversial - candidate this time. A nice side story to watch for tonight in the run up to the Euros.


    BNP have been campaigning very heavily outside the Asda in the centre of Wythenshawe for several weeks, Eddy O'Sullivan there most days, joined by Nick Griffin today.

    Smaller than on tele.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Fernando said:

    whereas a refusal to contemplate sharing the national debt is not an attempt to coerce the rest of the UK into agreeing to a currency union?

    Remind me when Salmond or Sturgeon called a huge press conference leaked various untruths about it well beforehand and then set out to the rest of the UK as loudly as possible this supposed 'refusal to contemplate sharing the national debt'.

    No?

    That's because it didn't happen. The debt issue is the natural response to Osborne's own posturing by showing where such petulant intransigence would lead. The SNP have said time and time again they are prepared to take on their fair share of the debt and they've said it loud and clear on scottish news and current affairs programmes long before today.


    Those who only ever believe one side of the story from Osborne and the No campaign in the Westminster media can hardly expect to be fully informed on the Independence Referendum.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it confirms Lab win in Wythenshawe and Sale East!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Ave It, good to see you on :)
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Fernando said:

    Why don’t they have their own currency and peg it to the British pound. Some of us can remember this working for decades in Ireland. When I used taxis in Dublin in the 1970s I just paid in sterling. Parity was maintained between the currencies. It means they have to follow UK economic and monetary policies, but they would have to do that that and more in a currency union anyhow. Aren’t they missing a trick? They could even call it the Scottish National Pound or the SNP for shot.

    Probably they are, but as far as I can see the SNP's campaign is essentially "we can be independent but nothing will change really at all except some "unpopular" things we want to cherry pick out like bedroom tax, Faslane, etc - it's all no risk". Except the £ ( probably ) remains popular and losing it ( or losing it officially at least ) is risky, and replacing it with a Scottish £ opens up Pandora's box of doubts on interest rates, debt, exchange rates etc. Ironically were they to adopt the Scots £ and behave responsibly fiscally I doubt the sky would fall for Scotland. It's just the SNP perceive that's a hard sell. (Of course they might have to do it now, which may yet be the making of them!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,888
    11.5% is the magic number for the Tories :D
  • Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    Mick_Pork said:

    Fernando said:

    whereas a refusal to contemplate sharing the national debt is not an attempt to coerce the rest of the UK into agreeing to a currency union?

    Remind me when Salmond or Sturgeon called a huge press conference leaked various untruths about it well beforehand and then set out to the rest of the UK as loudly as possible this supposed 'refusal to contemplate sharing the national debt'.

    No?

    That's because it didn't happen. The debt issue is the natural response to Osborne's own posturing by showing where such petulant intransigence would lead. The SNP have said time and time again they are prepared to take on their fair share of the debt and they've said it loud and clear on scottish news and current affairs programmes long before today.


    Those who only ever believe one side of the story from Osborne and the No campaign in the Westminster media can hardly expect to be fully informed on the Independence Referendum.
    So your telling us that you believe both sides and not just the Yes campaign? So presumably you reject the idea that the Yes camp put forward that their are no risks to independence, no potential downside and no uncertainty I take it. If you see both sides you couldn't possibly believe their argument to be the case.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    DavidL - I've just been re-reading Anthony Sampson's Who Runs This Place. You're quite right of course about successful Scots, but there's a couple of problems with this. Firstly there's lots of successful people in England from all nationalities around the world to the extent that people worry about being ruled by foreigners. Going independent won't close down those opportunities for Scots. Secondly you point specifically to a couple of politicians - hardly a popular career choice nowadays. There are other Scots in say the the civil service or the law but I imagine to most Scots they represent part of the London establishment they want to get away from.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pulpstar said:

    11.5% is the magic number for the Tories :D

    Or for your betting? ;)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ave It, good to see you on :)

    TY Morris and you - hope you are well!

    Before GE2015 you can all look forward to Ave it reliable seat by seat projections!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Llama, I can't possibly reveal that, or anything about Dog's origin/relationship with the Ursk. ...

    Well if you won't say, you won't. I will say that in terms for laughs per pound Sir Edric's Temple is stunningly good value and any denizen of PB who hasn't yet forked out what measly sum you are demanding (is it still less than a quid?, astonishing) is missing out on the literay deal of the year and a lot of innocent fun.
  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    MP - I really can’t see why Osborne’s rather moderately phrased comments constitute petulant intransigence. I’m hard put to think of anyone in the UK, outside of Scotland, who thinks a currency union without a political union is a ‘good thing’, especially after the experience of the eurozone. The SNP don’t appear to want to join the eurozone because of problems caused by that currency union. However, they apparently think it is petulant intransigence for the rest of the UK not to want to risk a currency union with them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP receive a £100K donation --
    Paywall
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4005126.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_02_13
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Max_Edinburgh said:

    So presumably you reject the idea that the Yes camp put forward that their are no risks to independence, no potential downside and no uncertainty

    I don't need to refute it because that's a glaringly obvious bullsh*t straw man. Try harder

  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Cookie said:


    Only one rosetted individual there - a very friendly heavily-bearded Asian man from UKIP. UKIP's ground operation clearly not as poor as has been suggested.


    Sorry you must be mistaken

    We know for a fact that UKIP people are grumpy white old middle classed men and women.

    A friendly asian man doesn't fit that profile he must obviously have been a leftie in disguise because only they deserve the BME vote

  • Max_EdinburghMax_Edinburgh Posts: 347
    Mick_Pork said:

    Max_Edinburgh said:

    So presumably you reject the idea that the Yes camp put forward that their are no risks to independence, no potential downside and no uncertainty

    I don't need to refute it because that's a glaringly obvious bullsh*t straw man. Try harder

    How very convenient. So tell me what are the potential downsides to independence? Don't recall Salmond or Sturgeon telling the people of Scotland about them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Ave It, thanks. That's something to look forward to :)

    About £1.91 or so, Mr. Llama. And cheers, once again, for your kind words. Still undecided on a series name, though.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Reeth: Go Morton! Gain this and the route to Con control is on!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    edited February 2014
    Hmm. New title and the thousands of comments appear to have gone missing on the currency union story:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26179442

    Edited extra bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26166794
    Weird. Old story *is* up, with comments, but has been shifted to Business (and Scotland) away from Politics.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Welcome back, Mr. T. I hope your plethora of pestilence is not too debilitating.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Sean - good to see you back!

    All about the big posters back tonight! Tim next!!

    I agree Salmond cannot win now - its like Bonnie Prince Charlie 1745!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,960
    Anyway, I'm off for the night.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    SeanT said:

    fpt I always said the currency issue would be the killer for Salmond. I said it back in 2009.

    You also appeared to indicate Cammie's posturing to gullible Eurosceptics on his Veto Flounce and then the IN/OUT referendum would see him to victory.

    How's that one working out for the kippers? Stone dead are they?

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Ave It and SeanT reappear, in the same hour. Golly! My cup runneth over, I shall have to go and lie down.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 56s

    For those tracking Wythenshawe & Sale by-election @MENnewsdesk has a rolling blog from 10pm http://bit.ly/1fkJlvq #Ukip #Labour #bbcqt
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    Just as you thought it was safe to go on pb again....

    He's back.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    FrankBooth said:

    DavidL - I've just been re-reading Anthony Sampson's Who Runs This Place. You're quite right of course about successful Scots, but there's a couple of problems with this. Firstly there's lots of successful people in England from all nationalities around the world to the extent that people worry about being ruled by foreigners. Going independent won't close down those opportunities for Scots. Secondly you point specifically to a couple of politicians - hardly a popular career choice nowadays. There are other Scots in say the the civil service or the law but I imagine to most Scots they represent part of the London establishment they want to get away from.

    All I can say from my own family is that they don't want away from London, they want to live there at least for a while. And if you are young and ambitious who wouldn't? It is one of the most exciting places on the planet.

    But we also love Newcastle and Yorkshire and the lake district. The idea of these places being "abroad" is really abhorrent to me, even if the practical implications were not that great.

    Each person's views is a result of their own experiences. I was brought up as an army brat on army bases, several of which were in England. I have always been British first and Scottish second. I fully accept that different lives might result in different views. But I do feel passionately about the United Kingdom and would be devastated if I was no longer a member of it.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BrookesTimes: My cartoon Friday @TheTimes: Alex Salmond is sent a Valentine... http://t.co/COCjq8wQkG
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    SeanT and Ave It return - a red letter day.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    MarqueeMark said:

    SeanT and Ave It return - a red letter day.

    Ave it!!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    SeanT said:

    Ave.

    I return from Thailand with a portfolio of new diseases, a scuba-diving certificate, and an IOU from Mr Mark Senior (he wasn't there, I hasten to add, he just lost a bet with me).

    fpt I always said the currency issue would be the killer for Salmond. I said it back in 2009. And it will be. I suspect there may be an initial backlash against Westminster "bullying" and we might see a boost for YES, but long term the Osborne/Balls ambush will do its job, and sow enough doubt and fear to ensure NO.

    Delighted to see you back SeanT.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    UKIP receive a £100K donation --
    Paywall
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4005126.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_02_13

    "Ukip received donations worth £270,955 over the last three months of 2013, taking its total for the year to £654,162, more than double the £314,410 received by Nigel Farage's party in 2012."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/13/ukip-tories-fight-2nd-place-wythenshaww-sale-byelection

    Their total income in 2012 was £1.2 million.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/2012#UKIP
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    now where is tim?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Ave_it said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SeanT and Ave It return - a red letter day.

    Ave it!!!
    Shame for Watford that Forest will finally take that third promotion spot though....!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,888
    @SeanT Welcome back !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Still moving his livestock to dry pasture...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Yes Clydesdale ‏@YesClydesdale 5h

    From Business for Scotland: Case for sharing currency remains in the mutual interests of businesses north & south... http://fb.me/2b1Gk2X3q
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Under a patio in "Brookside" ?!?

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    MarqueeMark said:

    Ave_it said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SeanT and Ave It return - a red letter day.

    Ave it!!!
    Shame for Watford that Forest will finally take that third promotion spot though....!
    Quite relaxed about it. Concentrating on staying up!

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    so should we both join the euro so we can share those benefits too?
    Mick_Pork said:

    Yes Clydesdale ‏@YesClydesdale 5h

    From Business for Scotland: Case for sharing currency remains in the mutual interests of businesses north & south... http://fb.me/2b1Gk2X3q

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    we want tim!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
    "tim" left of his own volition and OGH has made it clear to the point of tedium that "tim" is not banned and free to return should he wish to do so.

    The matter is settled.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    anotherDave said:

    MikeK said:

    UKIP receive a £100K donation --
    Paywall
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4005126.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_02_13

    "Ukip received donations worth £270,955 over the last three months of 2013, taking its total for the year to £654,162, more than double the £314,410 received by Nigel Farage's party in 2012."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/13/ukip-tories-fight-2nd-place-wythenshaww-sale-byelection

    Their total income in 2012 was £1.2 million.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/2012#UKIP
    Pretty good.
    AlasdairStephen ‏@AlasdairStephen Feb 12

    Scottish independence: Yes campaign readies million-pound marketing blitz with 7 million warchest | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/uBBkJoN
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Graph of past election results at Wythenshawe

    twitter.com/alex_mjs/status/434087702397743104/photo/1
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
    "tim" left of his own volition
    Wrong.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    Really .... Do you gays really want more flooding ?!?

    Tsk ....

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    What brought you out of self imposed hibernation, Ave_it?

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JackW said:

    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    Really .... Do you gays really want more flooding ?!?

    Tsk ....

    :)

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    MikeK said:

    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    What brought you out of self imposed hibernation, Ave_it?

    Warming up for GE2015!

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mick_Pork said:

    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
    "tim" left of his own volition
    Wrong.

    Chapter and very please, including links.

    Thank you.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ave_it said:

    MikeK said:

    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    What brought you out of self imposed hibernation, Ave_it?

    Warming up for GE2015!

    We'd better hope you warm up better than previous UK and US elections.

    Titters ....

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
    "tim" left of his own volition
    Wrong.

    Chapter and very please, including links.

    Thank you.

    No "JackW" after you if you don't mind.
    You made the assertion first so back it up.

    Afterwards I can if you like link where tim left and detail why, but do you really want that "JackW"?

    Best accept that the reasons he left were very far from voluntary and that until he comes back pretending otherwise is just a bit pathetic and certainly not even close to the truth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Wythenshawe declaration number:

    2010: 611
    2005: 66
    2001: 180
    1997: 219
    1992: 127
    1987: 306
    1983: 101
    1979: 297
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @BrookesTimes: My cartoon Friday @TheTimes: Alex Salmond is sent a Valentine... http://t.co/COCjq8wQkG

    Salmond e Sturgeon consegna a domicilio.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V7RMKq8RQj4
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited February 2014
    SeanT said:

    Thanks for all the welcomes back (welcome backs?).

    The acquittal of DLT is surprisingly pleasing.

    By contrast, we have pardoned Alan Turing who unquestionably broke the law of the land at the time.

    We are pitifully confused, as a nation, when it comes to sexual morals.

    SeanT returns with a fabulous self mocking last line ....

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Ah, sexual morality. I know an ex tory MP tweeter who had some enlightening things to say about that.

    Perhaps I will post it in the future.

    Quite a bit.

    :)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JackW said:

    Ave_it said:

    MikeK said:

    Ave_it said:

    we want tim!

    What brought you out of self imposed hibernation, Ave_it?

    Warming up for GE2015!

    We'd better hope you warm up better than previous UK and US elections.

    Titters ....

    Like your LD forecast 2010?

    Tee Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,044
    MikeL said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%

    Getting boring now. Time YouGov came up with another outlier.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Wythenshawe
    " Of 17,900 postal votes distributed, over 10,000 had been delivered this morning"

    http://labourlist.org/2014/02/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-by-election-liveblog/
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    FrankBooth said:

    MikeL said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%

    Getting boring now. Time YouGov came up with another outlier.

    Maybe a 15% LD score to surprise us. The top two being neck and neck or 12 points separate wouldn't really be a new trick anymore.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    This bodes well.
    Joe Oliver ‏@joe_oliver 2h

    As for the Lib Dems the only two placards we saw were on the candidates' house & next door' - @MichaelLCrick on the #Wythenshawe by-election

    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics Feb 12

    Lib Dems are odds-on to lose their deposit in tomorrow's Wythenshawe byelection. Under 5% 4/6 Over 5% 11/10 http://bit.ly/1hFJkWQ
    As does this.
    Guardian politics ‏@GdnPolitics 3h

    Nick Clegg brushes aside threat of legal action over Lord Rennard's suspension http://bit.ly/MgnrT2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amazing to see Torvill & Dean skating Bolero again in Sarajevo 30 years after they won Gold.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Welcome back to SeanT.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mick_Pork said:

    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    JackW said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    now where is tim?

    Indeed.
    The putrid stench of hypocrisy on here does seem overpowering until that matter is settled.
    "tim" left of his own volition
    Wrong.

    Chapter and very please, including links.

    Thank you.

    No "JackW" after you if you don't mind.
    You made the assertion first so back it up.

    Afterwards I can if you like link where tim left and detail why, but do you really want that "JackW"?

    Best accept that the reasons he left were very far from voluntary and that until he comes back pretending otherwise is just a bit pathetic and certainly not even close to the truth.
    Er .... I think you'll find that you "Porky" asserted @ 10.11pm that the "putrid stench of hypocrisy" hung over "tim's" departure"

    So "Porky", put up or shut up.

This discussion has been closed.