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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014
Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservative 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 17)
Result of last election (2012):
0
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[sadly, about the only thing I've accomplished today]
Anyway, those don't look like very interesting by-elections, do they. Can't see either resulting in a change.
He's not looking to change the world, he's just looking for a New (Tory) England.
So 1) I'm quoting Labour from 2) Holyrood civil servants....
I look forward to you quoting from similarly eclectic sources...
Excellent post from a valued, long-standing contributor to this site (and ArRSE). Maybe beyond the comprehension of most "newbs" but worthy of a read by anyone with an interest in democracy....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/parliament/programmes/schedules/2014/02/21
One of them will be out by the time he's 23 even if he fulfils his full sentence. Meanwhile some of these young girls won't ever be able to enjoy adult sexual relationships with people that love them. What the hell is wrong with these judges?
51% Syrah, 16% Carignan, 11% Mourvedre, 11% Souzao, 8% Grenache, 2% Tannat, 1% Petite Sirah; all matured in French oak (25% new) for 13 months. - See more at:
http://winetrust100.co.uk/shop/chakalaka-spice-route/#sthash.Grng2hGp.dpuf
It seems I am not alone in my appreciation:
http://www.decanter.com/dwwa/2012/wine/spice-route-chakalaka-2009/8039
I'm not sure any Old World wine matches it for surprising and delicious complexity. Certainly not in this price bracket.
I am currently supping a very average Bordeaux.
"How do these soldiers shoot their own countrymen over political protests even sleep at night... "
Unfortunately very easily.
The political class creating a situation where it makes more sense for the victim's family to keep their mouth shut is why gang-rape is now normal.
For really decent French wine below £15-£20 you have to go to less explored areas (like Languedoc) but I'd suggest that the best wine between £5-£20 is practically all made in the New World; though Portuguese and Austrian reds are worth exploring, and I had some remarkable English - English! - sparkling wine the other day.
Rioja: very reliable stuff.
In reality it's as flat as a pancake
"If the judges lived in the same areas the sentences would quadruple."
you think i meant Peterborough vs London rather than hell estate created by the political class vs leafy house out in the country?
w.e 14th feb 5.6%
w.e 21st feb 6%
Since drying out is returning to true blue bounce.
Poor compouter condemned to continue circling the boundary like a beast of burden.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10652595/Standard-Life-to-warn-of-risks-of-Scottish-independence.html
Average Lab lead so far this year:
Week 1 - 6.8
Week 2 - 5.4
Week 3 - 6.0
Week 4 - 4.6
Week 5 - 5.0
Week 6 - 6.2
Week 7 - 5.75 (4 polls only, one poll still to come)
So a small dip in week 4 and 5 but entirely possible that that was just sample error.
This week so far is very close to the overall average for the whole 7 week period.
In Sean T land narrow victory
2. The majority of victims in London aren't white.
The Birstall byelection sounds interesting. It is a northern suburb of Leicester, not as posh as Quorn or Rothley, but more upmarket than Loughborough. It is adjacent to the Belgrave/Melton road Gujerati area, and the Lib Dem vote is often from middle class asians who have outgrown Labour but not willing to stomach the Tories. It would be interesting to see if the LD vote holds up better than in student areas. There has also been a lot of new housing in the area so may be some demographic change, not sure if there is a particular local issue. Cheers indeed. It is a bloody amazing wine, and a serious bit of blending:
51% Syrah, 16% Carignan, 11% Mourvedre, 11% Souzao, 8% Grenache, 2% Tannat, 1% Petite Sirah; all matured in French oak (25% new) for 13 months. - See more at:
http://winetrust100.co.uk/shop/chakalaka-spice-route/#sthash.Grng2hGp.dpuf
It seems I am not alone in my appreciation:
http://www.decanter.com/dwwa/2012/wine/spice-route-chakalaka-2009/8039
I'm not sure any Old World wine matches it for surprising and delicious complexity. Certainly not in this price bracket.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10652637/Alex-Salmond-is-facing-a-business-exodus-from-Scotland.html
The other thing the report points to is that Labour is apparently getting much better canvas returns in the north than the south. So much so that they're only realistically targeting southern seats where the majority they're chasing is >2500. In the midlands and north they're targeting seats up to 5000 majority.
Having looked extensively at the electoral map this has interesting implications. A Labour 'victory' could well see them make more gains in the north west than in the entire south east including London. It might leave a few media people and Blairite strategists obsessed with 'southern marginals' scratching their heads. Only 15 of the 65 key seats they are targeting are in the south.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/02/17/your-opinion-on-a-lib-lab-coalition-doesnt-matter-labour-are-going-for-one-anyway/
http://www.waitrosedirect.com/product/duval-leroy-fleur-de-champagne-nv/025107
This is a seriously good Champagne and a snip at the reduced price of £19.99. I shall be topping up tomorrow.
Jeanette Winterson first claims that postmen were too poor to buy shares in Royal Mail and then, when told that all postmen were offered shares without the need for cash subscription, she asked where all the money raised from the share allocation went.
Before waiting for another panellist to speak she answered her own question by stating that the money raised went "to line the pockets of the rich" gaing both a cheer and applause from a large minority of the audience.
There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. The thinking of the left.
Thank goodness we have a different class and intelligence of fiction writer posting on PB.
In 1997-2010 we found out if we were considered a marginal about 2 months before the election. (The decision was that we had little chance in 1997, 2005 and 2010, and we were seen as a sure thing in 2001. I've never enjoyed marginal status before - it's jolly nice.)
I blame the voters!
But also a poor result for both the Tories and Labour, with no UKIP to blame. Birstall is the sort of suburban area of which Midland marginal constituencies are made, not dissimilar in ways to Broxtowe.
I am a comic and I resent being upstaged.
"Could Met Office have been more wrong?"
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/436623694585016320/photo/1
We are two nations divided by a common language, McDivvie.
Lab 1201 Plaid 972 Con 381 Green 148 TUSC 101 L:ib Dem 80
Persistently high death rates in Welsh hospitals should be investigated, the medical director of the English NHS has suggested to his Welsh counterpart.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26272389
She has moved to the front bench very quickly since reaching parliament. One to watch, not yet seen any odds as next leader.
#CHARNWOOD Birstall Wanlip
#LIBDEM GAIN
Simon SANSOME LD (39.6%)
Mary ALLEN CON (32.7%)
Marilyn COWLES LAB (27.7%)
Her voice was ever soft,
gentle and low: an excellent thing in woman.
I would always prefer, as a leader, a loyal Cordelia to shrieking Goneril or Regan.
Liz Kendall must learn not to interrupt. I bet she talks with her mouth full too.
Katherine rather than Bianca for my Petruchio
Wines that is, but politicians also!
Go Liz!
There's been lots of money to make in the recent past backing 'no' in Irish referendums as it started off polling badly and the undecideds broke that way (eg Lisbon, abolishing the senate).
My prejudice was to back 'no' for this one on the expectation that it would end up much tighter but so far 'yes' is staying strongly ahead.
Paddy Power have a variety of markets - the referendum is expected next year.
And, will you, nill you, I will marry you.
But we should desist. It will only encourage Sunil.
Pad your shoulders and the goal posts won't hit your head.
Kendall has a bit of charm, and got the balance more or less right. Shadow Health isn't a bad place to be with Milliband gunning for Burnham, she may make a step further up at the next reshuffle.
I give you a job and all you do is complain.
You'll be demanding a living wage next, compouter.
Bollocks ! When did you read an Indonesian or Moroccan Muslim have been found guilty of this ? It's like saying a Brazilian catholic is the same as a Polish one.
I think you were trying to say Pakistani or Afghan !
Spent four days in Cheshire with one I met on the net. She has an interesting back story about a tragedy which befell her long-term partner, described in detail as a 'he.' A little digging of my own reveals the he was really a she, and they were together for many years.
Anyhow, she's only 5'2", superb breasts, very open sexually, bedroom a veritable library of kinky sex books... "Encyclopaedia of Bizarre Sex Practices", etc...
This is the one whose opening gambit was to pen a thousand word porno essay about what she would like to do to my nether regions, and how I could engage in congress with her in public.
In between (indoor) bouts, she takes me to visit wealthy parents who have horses on a farm. Later she asks me to drive her to the local saddlery. Turns out it's moved. We track it down. She purchases three short riding crops...
Only when we get back home does she reveal she wants me to use them on her!
I go through the motions, to her delight...
She rewards me in diverse ways, finishing with an all-over body massage with oils.
And we even managed a tour of Knutsford, which is a very pretty town...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26277193
He did an unreal Jim Callaghan in a radio play a few years back...
http://www.seat61.com
If SL does go south, apart from losing 5000 odd jobs in Edinburgh, there is the loss of the funds controlled by SLI, in total, several hundred billion disappearing south of the border. SL's bankers these days are HSBC so not much difficulty in moving the money.
Just the vague possibility will have Salmond, Sturgeon and Swinney going grovelling to Lothian Road to see David Nish and Gerry Grimstone.