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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour showing that is doesn’t understand the current electoral dyanmic
What Labour's petty attack ad, sorry PPB, tells me is they have no economic plan and nothing positive to say. Petty politics.
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Well, it looks like it's been put together by students, at any rate.
I agree with Dan Hodges that this is a pitiful attempt at a PPB for a party apparently hoping to be our government in 12 months.
Where I completely disagree with him is the frankly bizarre idea that this will make any difference whatsoever. Does anybody seriously believe that a PPB is likely to change peoples' minds? I mean seriously?
It demonstrates an underlying level of incompetence and incoherence in their preparation and thought which should worry their own supporters but this PPB is just not going to make a difference.
FPT:
Thai prime minister is ordered to stand down by court:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27292633
Thai currency hits new high of 55 baht to pound sterling:
http://themoneyconverter.com/GBP/THB.aspx
If Clegg isn't on happy pills already he soon will be.
edit: i see Farron getting in quick
1. Ban it
2. tax it
It attempts to be funny but it isn't.
You just need to compare it with the Harry Enfield sketch on the previous thread to see this important difference.
Whether this is the main purpose that Labour should be aiming for in the run up to the EU elections is an interesting question.
Of course, we should bear in mind the important caveat that the model is not a forecast as such, but a model based purely on opinion polling and ignoring everything else. So, as political punters, we need to treat it as telling us, not what the result might be, but how much weight we should give to current polling in forming our (currently largely subjective) forecasts of the plausible range of outcomes - to which the answer is: something, but not very much.
We might of course, after looking at the politics, the economy, the merits or otherwise of the leaders, and so on, decide that we think the plausible range of shifts from current polling will be less than his model shows, or that they will be more skewed in one direction or the other. It's not an exact science, and we have to supplement the statistical analysis of flawed and noisy data with political judgement. That's the fun bit!
The ad would have been perfect and perfectly judged to its audience, much of which is sulking at the economic success of the Cons, had it left out the LDs.
IF they are worried about turnout, they are correct to be. Labour's policy on Europe is that everything is, basically, OK. No major complaints.
Who wants to get up and vote for that?
The bit where Clegg got chased across the table by the Downing Street cat made me chuckle though.
Usually the UKIP PPBs have been quite good this time round. I must say however, that the latest one on the Locals for may 22nd, was sub standard and particularly noisy.
The bells, the bells!
What fun it will be if the People's Front of Judaea are jostled away from the expenses trough by the Judaean People's Front.
Imagine the snorting and oinking there will be from the UKIP piggie who just misses out on five years at the trough because a few hundred votes were "misdirected" to that splitter!
What have the EU ever done for us?
Straw MIRROR poll:
Hit: 0%
Miss: 100%
Labour need to put out another PPB quickly, or hope people forget it or never watch it. Something along those lines.
What's more, it's not just that this ad is negative, it's that it's negative on charges that are already public consensus. The majority of people (not just Labour voters) already think that the Tories are rich idiots who purposely screw over the poor, and that the Lib Dems are pathetic sellouts. There's no point basing a whole advert around those two accusations when anyone who's even slightly open to the Labour Party will already agree. What they need to be working on is the substantial chunk of people who agree with those perceptions of the Tories and the Lib Dems, but who aren't sure what the hell Labour's alternative is and whether they would help the poor or public services any more than the Coalition does.
People do have a tendency to underestimate variability in many circumstances, and this may be a situation in which I am doing the same.
1st May, YouGov: 3% (26 vs 23)
2nd May, YouGov: 6% (28 vs 22)
3rd May, Survation: 4% (28 vs 24)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
The end of investment Banking in London?
Presently my ARSE is a model of consistent fortitude and not given over to arbitrary twitching resultant upon the vagaries of mere opinion polls.
@cyclefree
Here is Channel 4 News last night... two young people saying they dont feel British
The UKIP girl explains her position rather well. I agree with her, though it is easier for her to say than it would be for me
http://www.channel4.com/news/ethnic-minorities-uk-policy-exchange-30-per-cent-2050
A new fast helicopter in the late design and pre assembly stage. But here below it doesn't say how fast its designed to go.
http://www.janes.com/article/37465/sikorsky-plans-late-2014-first-flight-for-s-97
Really, there hasn't been a significant UK based investment bank since SG Warburg was acquired by UBS in the mid-to-late 1990s.
SJ UKIP to get an MP GE2015 5/4
Take best price on any of these
Nearer the time, the "w/o the fav" or "two come 2nd" will be interesting in these seasts
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood Lads
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North Lads
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
and to a lesser extent, these
Bexhill & Battle
Birmingham Yardley
Bournemouth East
Bridgewater & W Somerset
Brirmingham Northfield
Broadland
Burton
Cannock Chase
Christchurch
Dartford
Dover
East Devon
Erith & Thamesmead
Folkestone & Hythe
Great Yarmouth
Hastings & Rye
Hx & Upm
Kingswood
Ludlow
N Devon
N Warks
Newton Abbot
Peterborough
Poole
SE Cornwall
Solihul
Spelthorne
Stoke on Trent Central
Stoke on Trent North
Stourbridge
Torridge & W Devon
Totnes
Wells
West Brom East
West Suffolk
Apparently it will have a cruise speed upwards of 200 knots:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_S-97_Raider
I find it quite startling that we Brits still hold the official world speed record for a 'pure' helicopter, in the form of a Westland Lynx at 400 kph (215 knots), set back in 1986:
http://www.fai.org/fai-record-file/?recordId=11659
Her key phrase (paraphrased)
"You can be a foreigner and have a different culture yet live in harmony with British people and what it is to be British"
This made me smile, after all the ranting about immigration we have seen on the site recently
Latvians deliver UKIP leaflets, LOL
Common Purpose, lizards
Coming over 'ere...
Well the PEOPLE have seen through you all and their going to be on the STREETS
YOU SHOULD ALL BE HANGING FROM LAMPPOSTS
WE ARE TAKING BACK OUR COUNTRY
millions are joining us every day
It's An Independence From Europe for me!!
I think I've quoted the DT comments correctly there. Why do so many UKIPper's appear to be grocer's, judging by there inability to put comma's in the right place's?
0m
LordAshcroft's avatar
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
@DPJHodges ....wait until you see the marginal polls released at @ConHome 's spring conference
The PEB isn't my scene for the same reason that I don't like Private Eye or Scarfe or Rowson and disliked Spitting Image, but then I'm not sure that any of us are typical. Doubt if the general public will react much one way or the other. I think the really striking thing of the last 4 years of polls have been their stability, with the exception of the rise of UKIP (now clearly hurting everyone). So an amazing outcome in terms of vote share compared with current polls looks really unlikely. What IS possible is an amazing outcome in terms of seats, because of the unpredictable impact of FPTP.
Frances Hinde @FrancesHinde
Ukip Pays Eastern Europeans To Distribute Leaflets, Despite Warning They Take British Jobs huff.to/1kLIGXU via @HuffPostUKPol LOL
And surely Newark is part of that SOMEWHERE !!
Lots of ifs there, and I don't necessarily think that that's what will happen.
But just because it seemed like UKIP were taking from both Lab & Con on the way up, it doesn't mean that the votes will return in the same proportions on the way down.
National Prediction: CON short 3 of majority on UNS.
Not necessarily. Ashcroft could be hinting that the new polls will be very embarassing for Dan.
Obviously it depends a bit as to what you term investment banking, but I'd also point out that RBS owned Charterhouse who were a force in certain areas, and HSBC owned Midland, and thus Samuel Monatgu, plus James Capel. The list goes on. It's only really Lloyds that never featured.
Labour know this and are trying to persuade those shy LDs.
It won't work mind you.
So, presumably UKIP paid minimum wage for its leaflet deliverers, and the best qualified people for the job were immigrants.
Presumably Ukip paid a leaflet delivering company.
Even though I was totally off my face on painkillers for my back, I could tell he wasn't a happy bunny, LOL!
Oh to have been a fly on CCHQ wall when he finally caught up with Cameron and Osborne on the Friday morning! :^O
I expect they hire delivery companies, however.
The best story has to be the former Fianna Fail cabinet minister who was added to a local election ticket at the last minute only to have the party HQ u-turn and ask her not to stand but who is now standing for Fianna Fail anyway against their wishes. Knowing Ireland she'll probably get in too.
http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014/01/14/romanians-in-hard-times-on-benefits-street/
"Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.
The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."
I'm guessing 58 pence an hour is below minimum wage?
Yes, it was typically upwardsly sneery but you expect that of Labour and Euro-/local elections are mostly core vote chasing so why not?
As for the Lib Dems, no, it was anti-Clegg. It wasn't really anti-Lib Dem and certainly not anti-LD2010 voter. The basic message was: you were duped then, don't let them do it again.
It's not as if the Lib Dems aren't past masters at the negative stuff. They can be vicious when it comes to it but more often it's the simple two-horse-race / only we can beat X, which is wholly negative and relies on their being perceived as not as bad as X by Y and Z, not on actually being any good themselves.
However, there is one big drawback to the PEB: what's to stop the net effect from being (Con+LD) to UKIP?
But, UKIP also complies with the law of the land. Denying employment to people on the ground that they're Polish is unlawful.
Can't see past Quintana for the overall tbh - though he is short to back.
Original? - Don’t know how much was paid for the PPB, but I hope not too much.
http://i1.walesonline.co.uk/incoming/article1994633.ece/alternates/s615/spitting-image-975065883.jpg
However, that doesn't mean there won't be a lurch to the left, it just means the kind of loony things they'll do are more like the 1970s than the Brown years. Instead of bribing voters with free money taken from taxpayers or borrowed (which they seem, finally, reluctantly to admit is not possible), they want to con voters into thinking there is free money available from squeezing energy companies, landlords, house building companies, estate agents, and other 'predators'. Worse still, it might not even be an attempt at a con - it could be that Milband believes in it.
"Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
One other thing. After that PPB please let's not have any more denials from Labour insiders about there not being a 35% strategy.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
@DPJHodges ...it's all in the marginals Dan! National polls mood music only...
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
@LordAshcroft Maybe, but Ed's not getting 40% is he.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
@DPJHodges ....wait until you see the marginal polls released at @ConHome 's spring conference"
JUNE 2014. The Queens Speech and the Private Members Ballot – the final session of a Parliament won’t have many exciting bills left, watch who wins the private members ballot though. If a compliant enough Conservative comes top of the ballot then they’ll re-introduce the EU Referendum Bill that got lost in the Lords last time, and if it passes the Commons unamended again the Parliament Act would come into play. Labour and the Liberal Democrats may have to act to kill it in the Commons this time round
I hadn't thought of the Parliament Act angle - I thought that only applied to government bills??
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8772
Like others though I cannot see how it alienates the much fabled Red Liberals who quit in disgust at the target of this video! (By the way 2010 LDSwitchers is a torturous term - Red Liberals is better)
And there was me thinking I was simply pointing out how totally wrong you were that wages couldn't go below minimum wage.