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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from You
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome back Marf and the second 35% share for LAB from YouGov this week
Looking back over the past decade there’s little doubt that Westminster voting intentions can be all over the place in the closing phase of the Euro elections campaign. It happened in 2004 and 2009 so maybe there’s a case for saying that we oughtn’t to read too much into the current comparatively poor shares for Labour.
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As TSE pointed out last night the really extraordinary part of current polling is that the tories are doing relatively well (only 2% off their GE) at the same time as UKIP is in the teens. There really ought to be a lot of upside from this for the tories in due course. For Labour, things can only get worse. And I think we need to keep reassessing where the UKIP support is coming from.
The shift in the Labour voting percentage looks significant to me. One more percentage point drop with YG and it will be time for EdM to get seriously worried.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/fighting-separate-battle-south-west-2015.html
I shall probably be taking a break for a few days because I am away in northern Ireland for the weekend.
Doesnt sound like normal orthodoxies are in play.
He criticises the government for 'cheerleading' on the Pfizer / AstraZenica deal when a formal bid has not yet been made. He refuses to meet with the bidding company's chief executive, whilst accepting personal donations from a board member of the target company.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27336551
God help the country if he ever gets into power. His 'intellectual self-confidence' will send us down the drain.
Meanwhile back in 2014, I am wondering if this weekend will see the mythical crossover and I wonder which pollster will be first to stick its head above the parapet and give us a Tory lead over Labour? Presumably if Populus today shows a widening Labour lead, the weekend polls will be more of the same but if it also narrows to 1% then lots of bitten fingernails by early evening tomorrow.
Do you guys win your bet if it is any YouGov poll or just a Mon-Thurs one?
The way he has managed to maintain the "not just another politician" schtick is remarkable. If that bubble ever bursts...
twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/464654058247454723/photo/1
It's fantastic.
But I thought the rule was that you don't kick dead dogs?
I
Sweden 3/1 (various)
Netherlands 5/1 (Betdaq)
Austria 5/1 (various)
Armenia 6/1 (various)
Yookay 13/1 (Betdaq)
Hungary 16/1
Denmark 28/1
Ukraine 33/1
Labour Hardworking Britain Better Be Off
Of course fresh fruit and veg (such as peas) don't attract VAT. So yes fairly misleading.
Isn't it dire!
There was absolutely nothing in it about what Labour would do and the portrayal of Nick Clegg was cruel. Not even highbrow satire can explain that and Labours traditional target population will miss that anyway.
- An independent Scotland could not "unilaterally" expel nuclear weapons, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond has warned, as he rejected the SNP's plans to get rid of Trident by 2020.
... The SNP claimed Mr Hammond had let the "cat out of the bag" that ministers were considering how to move Trident.
... "For technical and planning reasons it will take at least a decade - probably significantly longer than that," [Mr Hammond] said. On the 2020 aim, he added: "This will be a process of negotiation. It is not a question of one side saying 'these are the terms' - it is a question of both sides sitting down and having a discussion. Neither side can unilaterally impose its aims."
... SNP Westminster leader and defence spokesman Angus Robertson said: "He has always said the Tories think the people of Scotland will vote No and the MoD is not spending any time on planning for independence. Yet today it is clear he is looking at a timetable in the event of a Yes vote."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/trident-to-stay-on-clyde-until-at-least-2026-says-hammond.24175720
The MoD are in for one almighty shock come 19 September.
A referendum under Cameron, when he is PM and cheer-leading for a a stay-in vote, is unlikely to lead to a Brexit.
The best (only?) scenario for a Brexit is a strong UKIP performance, a weak labour minority govt, and a united tory party lead by anybody who commits to campaign to take the UK out of the EU.
FPT: Mr. Putney, chance there won't be any F1 articles this weekend. Still trying to sort out my computer. I don't want to forgo accessing e-mail and the like for days but I can't afford to get screwed over by some ****ing virus stealing my data (I'll need to change some passwords, such as this one, but none of the sites have critical information on them).
Not exactly "jam today" is it ?
1) That UKIP's performance at the 2015 GE will be 'strong' enough to severely influence the result in that manner.
2) That it will lead to a weak Labour minority government.
3) That in such event, a future Tory leader will be anti-EU.
4) That even if they are anti-EU, the situation in 2020 will be suitable for an anti-EU party.
5) That an anti-EU Tory party would win against even a weak Labour in 2020.
6) That 'out' would win the resultant referendum.
I want a referendum. I'm not sure which way I would vote in that referendum. What you are saying above is that it will be 2020, at the earliest, before I get one, and we have to suffer Miliband in power for five years to get it?
No thanks.
Italy 1/2 (BetFred)
Uruguay 1/2 (various)
England 4/6 (various)
Costa Rica 12/1 (bwin)
England are currently 33/1 to win the tournament.
If they get to the semis I'll be a very happy chappie indeed.
... and Mr Farage following the Tories in claiming that any criticism of him and UKIP in Scotland was, and will be, a priori racist.
Not only is this a great big misunderstanding (to be polite), given who were doing the protesting (lefties, some from south of the border and so presumably not Scots) but it doesn't say much for his ability to win over hearts and minds.
I have been monitoring the main Scottish Labour politicians in the news flood for several years. Apart from very rare Jim Murphy and Wee Dougie press releases (seldom Scotland-related) they are all pretty much invisible. But the biggest No Show is the boss herself: Lamont. Has a political "leader" ever been so invisible? There is a reason why her minders keep her out of the way.
My ernest hope is that she'll be flushed out of cover soon. Then the real fun begins.
Farage is up in Edinburgh today - have you put the pitchforks into the furnace to warm up ?
Basil is now officially knackered http://www.trinity.edu/rjensen/tidbits/2009/TiredSquirrel.jpg
As an aside, I was in Edinburgh and Glasgow yesterday. Based upon asking everyone I had meetings with (4 people), I forecast 100% for 'Better Together'.
However, I would admit that people I met might not have been a particularly representative sample.
Labour's VAT poster contains series of items that are in fact zero rated. From a party struggling to communicate economic competence.
The only way arrogant folk like you ever learn is by defeat at the ballot box.
I saw in a recent EBU mag that you had played for the EBU team in the Camrose; congrats.
I would expect that given the number of bridge players on here that we could put forward quite a good team, although not at Camrose standards of course!
If they fail to get out of the group it is no biggie, but thereafter it becomes boon, boon, boon for Yes.
If you wonder why I have come to that conclusion then I could summarise it in three letters: B, B, and C.
Now that's arrogance....
VAT rated items include all alcoholic drinks, carbonated and energy drinks, anything with more than 15% chocolate (e.g. double-sided choc bars), energy bars, crisps (except vegetable crisps and twiglets), all confectionery - you see a lot of these items in shopping carts - none of which is necessary for survival if you are on a limited income.
As I mentioned below, possible there'll be no F1 articles. I'm hoping that everything goes smoothly, and I'll be able to put some up.
I think the question is likelier to be about the size of the advantage Mercedes has rather than whether they've been passed on pace terms by another team. Their advantage in the first 4 races was very significant.
A strong UKIP performance and a weak Labour minority government are mutually exclusive.
And we haven't even mentioned the event which General Flashman (decd.) thinks is of no importance to him, so we have kept him happy over his kedgeree..
Here is a joke sent to me, unattributed:
An Israeli doctor says: “in Israel, medicine is so advanced that we cut off a man’s testicles, put them on another man and in 6 weeks, he is looking for work
“The German doctor says: “that’s nothing, in Germany we take part of a brain, put it in another man, and in 4 weeks he is looking for work
“The Russian doctor says: “gentlemen, we take half a heart from a man, put it in another’s chest and in 2 weeks he is looking for work.
“The United States doctor laughs: “You all are behind us. Five years ago, we took a man with no brains, no heart and no balls and made him President. Now, the whole country is looking for work!
The joke may be known to others, but I thought it worth a retread.
Nice to see Marf back on PB.
None of the Nats found this article in the Edinburgh Law Review yet?
http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/abs/10.3366/elr.2014.0207
*Innocent Face*
Nats = Ally McLeod.
Discuss.
Incidentally, live coverage of practice has now begun (online or on BBC2, I think).
Will it last ?
I have just started compiling a spreadsheet of the 2010 splits for each of the three (then) main parties. Have done April and May (only 7 polls) to date and will finish Jan-March this weekend.
So far looking at the LD split there appears 1% more going to Cons, 2+% less going to Labour, 2% less going to LDs, 2.5% more going to UKIP and 0.5% more going to Greens.
For Labour, 0.5% more going to Cons, 2% less to Labour, nearly 1% more going to UKIP and bits more to LDs and Greens.
For Conservatives, very steady but bits less to Labour, LDs and UKIP.
I will publish full figures for 2014 this weekend.
That said, I was born after the 1978 World Cup.
A lot of my knowledge of Scotland at the 1978 World Cup was gleaned from the film Trainspotting.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/scotland-v-england/winner
Mr. Eagles, ah, I remember that now.
Rejoice.
I was greetin during the Peru game - toughened me up for a lifetime supporting Scotland at football though.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100270693/online-ukippers-truly-believe-thats-why-theyre-rude-and-thats-why-i-admire-them/
Against that, Super Jimmy is back.