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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet is starting to look good
Just a year ago I placed a bet at 10/1 that the Tories would win most votes in next week’s Euro elections – a position that has found little support on PB or elsewhere.
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Many Tories have been gracious and actually quite reserved - but yes, there are a few collectors' items from the usual suspects!
Con 22 (-4)
UKIP 21 (+8)
Lab 19 (+6)
Green 5 (+3)
LDs 0 (-11)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
I still reckon that UKIP will win, though.
If the Lib Dems get beaten by the Greens that would be horrendous for them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
No it won't. They/We've been managing this for months now. Wake us up 6 months before GE15
Guido Fawkes@GuidoFawkes·2 mins
That smell drifting across SW1 is the Labour Party collectively sensing in their guts @DPJHodges could be right. 10 days and counting...
Any more polls like this and Ed's going to get replaced.
Nice to dream of but can't happen.
Previous thread - good red wine to go with squirrel.
I'd recommend a dray red wine....
( I 'll get me coat...)
(Not actual fratricide, metaphorical)
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/european-parliament-elections/2014-uk-euro-parliamentary-elections-e216727842
Edit: Before "Ed committeed fratricide" - he's incapable of doing anything himself!
The Tories should be grateful that UKIP exists, as the party can get working class
Labour votes that would never vote Conservative.
Who has Ed got? David Axelrod?
Think about that for a moment.
You want real ruthlessness? Tory Party. Margaret Thatcher. 1990.
Varangians were mercenary, but actually did their bloody job.
I believe Miliband has Chuka Umunna.
Despite that, Cain is safe until after the election.
2014: at least one UKIP candidate standing in all 17 wards unlike the Tories, LDs, and BNP who have collapsed to just 4 candidates.
Just caught up with the English Democrats Euro PEB.
It's the sort of thing that you would expect to find on an EDL site
Boo to the Tories.
Tim Montgomerie@TimMontgomerie·2 mins
@OwenJones84 you and the Toynbee tendency have helped turn Labour into a party imprisoned by public sector good, private sector bad thinking
The Conservatives don't stand for the nonsense of someone thoroughly inept, but are also unafraid to axe someone who's ok, and less disciplined generally.
Lib Dems are like students who have taken too much powerful cannabis. Mostly mellow and ultra-relaxed, but every now and then they stab without warning.
Labour are going to talk about the NHS for the next year. Not Stafford, obviously. Ideally not Wales, but the NHS is a winner...
FPT Three questions:
1. What percentage of the the GDP growth rate over the past year is accounted for by household investments in residential property?
2. What is the growth in total net lending by the banks secured on dwellings over the last year?
3. What is the total amount of lending on dwellings secured by government guarantee under Help-to-Buy schemes and what is its proportion to total net lending on dwellings?
Once you have answered these three questions, I suggest your reconsider your claims that the housing/construction boom is "debt fuelled" and "explicitly covered by taxpayer guarantees".
Let me know if you are having difficulties with the numbers.
JNN can exclusively reveal the whereabouts of ex PB Oligarch and former Bedford Betting Billionaire, Mike Smithson. Sources close to the disappeared OGH indicate that he has decamped to the former Gianni Versace villa on the shores of Lake Garda.
It appears Mr Smithson purchased the property from the small change from his winning bet that Nigel Farage would become the next President of the United States after defeating Vladamir Putin in the Electoral College by 537:1. The winning wager came through after a recount in Maine gave Putin one electoral vote from the state.
This most recent betting coup comes on the heels of other notable coups not least that of predicting the SNP winning the UK 2015 General Election after the alliance of Alec Salmond and Putin annexing England following the tied vote in the Scottish referendum.
You heard it here first ....
We don't want all our Christmasses to come together!!
P.s. Ed, if you're reading, I am a Tory but for £300,000 I'm yours.
"Ed Miliband – the UK backs his policies, but not the man
The Labour leader is unable to convince swing voters, but he's not the only party head grappling with foreign takeovers":
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/12/ed-miliband-uk-backs-policies-but-not-the-man?CMP=twt_gu
@Ed_Miliband
I’m in Manchester to talk about our plans for a stronger, better NHS. A member of my team is going to tweet while I speak, stay tuned...
It has been banned by Carola.
1. 78%
2. 345%
3. 1298%
Quite obvious really.
Government Investment in economic rebalancing: -34%
Support for businesses who aren't estate agents : -56%
Lending to businesses which impact the BoP : £ 3.47
Osborne inaction.
I live in the Thurrock constituency, considering it is one of the most marginal seats in the country there has up to this European Election campaign there has been little campaigning. However in this European election campaign the Tories have started to get up to speed. At the start of May letters were sent to every person on the electoral roll with the Tories 5 pledges. Today I came back and saw that the Tories had gone and posted a newspaper to all addresses. What surprised me was that the newspaper was not addressed to Thurrock issues but to the town where I live. There was even a picture of 30 Tory MP's outside of the local McDonalds along with pledges what the MP would do to solve local issues.
One interesting thing in the newspaper was a claim that Labour are trying to merge the borough with Barking and Dagenham. Would love to see some proof of that.
This amount of canvassing is really standing out compared to the other parties. UKIP have gone for roadside advertising and have leafleted once (generic leaflet). Labour or the Lib Dems have been absent and nothing has been heard from them.
If the Tories continue to hone this local advertising and campaigning then it might start to help them in May 2015. Labour really need to hit the ground running. Because yet again in this election campaign they have not bothered to do any electioneering in this constituency.
Dare I ask what the kippers are?
Oh, wait...
A new model of ethical banking, as shown by my good friend and colleague Peter.
No problem!
Lefties might call it a "vibrant, diverse, multicultural community" I suppose
"Thankfully, this is no longer a debate about race, as it was when the British National Party was stirring up the protest vote in these parts. In 2006, the BNP even won 12 seats on the council. Today, it has completely disappeared. The debate, now, is about the system.
Among white and black, Left and Right, old and young, one subject on which pretty much everyone in Barking agrees is that current levels of immigration (from Europe and elsewhere) are unsustainable. At one high street cafe, a group of pensioners are huddled round the ashtrays on a pavement table and making their cups of tea last for hours.
They all have their gripes with the council and the Government about the ‘invasion’ of foreigners who, they believe, are clogging the housing lists, surgery queues and buses. A blind couple with a pair of guide dogs complain bitterly that many local ‘foreign’ shopkeepers refuse them entry ‘because they’re scared of dogs’.
They all preface every remark by saying that are not racist, but merely feel forgotten. One of the gang is retired NHS switchboard operator James Beckles, 81. ‘I just don’t agree with this European thing,’ he says. ‘It’s putting too much pressure. There should be controls.’ James is an immigrant himself, having moved to Britain from Guyana in 1952.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2597454/We-Residents-deprived-borough-speak-predicted-Britain-need-Manchester-absorb-immigration.html#ixzz31X8KlScc
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
"
If that's what it is I'd guess it's been the month of attacks on Ukip over immigration that finally did the trick.
Also a lot of the other stuff they've been saying has been popular (rent, energy etc) but that just reminds people of the thing they won't mention.
Is the rapidly increasing African population in Thurrock having a big effect on local politics?
Here you go-
Labour - working class
Con - middle class
Lib Dem - the one true faith
Ukip - somewhere inbetween - hense the mediagasm. maybe a little bit racist. But y'know - in the good way.
What planet are you from?
Thurrock already has a Conservative MP, why doesnt she just do it now?
Ed Miliband@Ed_Miliband·6 mins
Speech done, one more thought before the end of the day: The NHS is one of the greatest things our country has ever done. We must protect it
UKIP are too difficult at the moment, because they're lots of different bits and bobs, and growing rapidly.
Plus they seem to keep going back to Farage. If they survive him and get another long term leader we'll see how they do things.
Just think of that Ed M tweet below and today's polls.
I wouldn't be surprised if last week's advert was the final straw, because it would've confirmed in many people's minds that Labour have no plans of their own and nothing to say about themselves so they have to resort to shrill, gratuitous attacks on their opponents.
@CCHQPress: Health board for hospital referred to in Labour broadcast subject to over 5,500 complaints under Labour run Welsh NHS http://t.co/B1UPJOgDeR
That said, Mike's 10/1 bet looks good value - the Tories are at least in the game. As for the 56/1 ...
Strengthens Cameron's hand to say "No UKIP or no debates".
Three questions:
1. What percentage of the the GDP growth rate over the past year is accounted for by household investments in residential property?
2. What is the growth in total net lending by the banks secured on dwellings over the last year?
3. What is the total amount of lending on dwellings secured by government guarantee under Help-to-Buy schemes and what is its proportion to total net lending on dwellings?
Once you have answered these three questions, I suggest your reconsider your claims that the housing/construction boom is "debt fuelled" and "explicitly covered by taxpayer guarantees".
Let me know if you are having difficulties with the numbers. Dear Mr. Brooke
Thank you for your application to read PPE as a mature student at St. George's College, Oxford.
We have carefully reviewed the papers you have submitted on all three core subjects.
We are pleased to confirm that we found your Politics and Philosophy essays both 'original and interesting'.
Regrettably, we found the workings in your economics paper to be somewhat too 'original'. May we recommend you check the batteries in your iPad before rerunning the calculations.
Another option may be to check your iPad for a computer virus infection. Local branches of PC World should be able to assist with the latter.
Once you have prepared a new submission, please send us your revised paper in the enclosed SAE.
We are confident that once these externalities have been addressed, you will be make a fine and loyal St. Georgian. I can also heartily recommend our collection of vintage ports which are served nightly in the college buttery.
Yours sincerely,
Dean for Admissions
St. George's College
Oxford