politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997.

Read the full story here

RodCrosby

The Euro polls in 2009 for Labour also flattered to deceive...

ICM 4/5/2009 Lab 28%
Result 4/6/2009 Lab 15.7%

old_labour

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

old_labour

I always prefer voting on the day of an election. You never know what can happen between posting off your vote and the actual election day.

It astounded me when someone wrote that half of the votes might have been already cast for the 2014 Euros.

Edin_Rokz

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

Aye, and efter, he'll awa hame tae think agin :^)

Stuart_Dickson

- "For Labour has always had a challenge getting its supporters out to vote when the government of the country is not a stake."

This is an absolutely crucial point to take on board for IndyRef betters. While turnout is expected to be high, there will be differential turnout. There always is. And the party supporters least likely to actually get off the sofa and vote on 18 September are Labour. They nearly always are.

The Scottish Tories and the few Scottish Lib Dems left are all highly motivated, and at least 90% of them are leaning NO. David Cameron can depend upon these folk to get out and vote for London rule.

The Scottish National Party is also highly motivated. If anything even more so. At least 80% of our supporters are leaning YES and we can depend on these folk to get out and vote for Scottish self government.

Green support is small, and although heavily YES supporting, it has a significant NO tendency. They will only be decisive in an extremely tight result, which is entirely possible. They are not the world's most reliable voters, perhaps because they tend to be younger.

UKIP in Scotland are also small, but are presumably mostly leaning NO, and will get out to vote.

But Scottish Labour, the country's second-largest party, is the big mystery. After perusing Scottish polling for many years, it is clear that up to 40% of SLab voters lean towards YES. That has been during the long years of Labour governments in London. Now, with the Tories GB-wide pulling ahead in the polls, could that 40% "ceiling" be about to be breached? Add in their famous reluctance to get out to vote in anything other than UK general elections, and SLab voters are absolutely critical.

This will make things unclear right up to the final few days. Great territory for punters looking for value.

Stuart_Dickson

Edin_Rokz said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

Aye, and efter, he'll awa hame tae think agin :^)

I love that term "Union Dividend". It is one of the finest own-goals dreamed up by Blair's backroom boys. I've always assumed that Jim Murphy was the culprit.

Stuart_Dickson

Ladbrokes:

Ed Miliband to be Labour leader at Next General Election 1/12
Ed Miliband to be replaced as Labour leader before Next General Election 6/1

Is 6/1 not terribly short for somebody that is currently leading the Next Prime Minister market (4/5) ?

If he really is a shoo-in, one would expect him to be at least 50/1 to be replaced as Labour leader before next UK GE.

Stuart_Dickson

CON tightening (as expected) on the Euro Most Votes market. Best price is now 20/1 (Stan James). However, UKIP still odds-on FAV with an unchanged 4/9 (Ladbrokes).

JohnLoony

Happy Birthday to Alexander Rybak.

JBriskin

Morning all,

Quite a boring thread after yesterdays excitement. At least us unemployed have got Max Keiser to look forward to.

SquareRoot

Is there a market on Miliband doing worse than Brown..>?? It cannot be discounted.

asjohnstone

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

If done well it could be staggeringly effective

TGOHF

asjohnstone said:

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

If done well it could be staggeringly effective

Converse is powerful too - a Yes win will mean more Salmond forever...

Sindy isn't popular with women and ABC classes.

JBriskin

asjohnstone said:

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

Any change away from wind farms and the arts would make it more rationally appealing.

TGOHF

Ed on BBC1 at 8.10 - bad timing for him.

Freggles

TGOHF said:

Ed on BBC1 at 8.10 - bad timing for him.

He'll say polls go up and down - you heard it here first

asjohnstone

TGOHF said:

asjohnstone said:

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

If done well it could be staggeringly effective

Converse is powerful too - a Yes win will mean more Salmond forever...

Sindy isn't popular with women and ABC classes.

Not so powerful, because not so true

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown ;

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

GeoffM

asjohnstone said:

TGOHF said:

asjohnstone said:

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

If done well it could be staggeringly effective

Converse is powerful too - a Yes win will mean more Salmond forever...

Sindy isn't popular with women and ABC classes.

Not so powerful, because not so true

Those two things do not always go together.

MarkSenior

RodCrosby said:

The Euro polls in 2009 for Labour also flattered to deceive...

ICM 4/5/2009 Lab 28%
Result 4/6/2009 Lab 15.7%

They did for the Conservatives too

Yougov 8/5/2009 Con 37%
BPIX 9/5/2009 Con 36%
Populus 10/5/2009 Con 34%
Result 4/6/2009 27.7%

JackW

SquareRoot said:

Is there a market on Miliband doing worse than Brown..>?? It cannot be discounted.

Historically since 1945 the Labour Party has always lost vote share in the election after losing power - 1955 .. Feb 74 .. 1983.

However I believe Labour will this time break that chain and up their 29% from 2010 by a few points.

Easterross

Good morning folkies from a very sunny Glasgow. Lots of PB hangovers this morning after yesterday's exciting polls. Wonder if we will now see further crossovers or Labour/UKIP leads growing in Westminster/Euro polls, respectively?

It has been interesting to see over the past two weeks talk of a Tory meltdown and the loss of 12+ euro seats become a possible Tory win (which some of us including OGH have said all along) and at worst the loss of 4 or 5 seats.

Wouldn't it be amusing if Labour gets a lower poll next week than 5 years ago and LOSES councils, if not council seats!

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

The natural order of things continues as Cambridge beats Oxford, again:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625709/Oxford-loses-Cambridge-fourth-year-row-new-league-table-universities.html

[Deleted User]

This Ben Brogan piece on the PM is surprisingly sympathetic:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10825155/A-day-in-the-life-of-David-Cameron.html

I wonder how a PM Miliband would fare? Poorly I suspect as the needs for wonkery yield to the needs for delivery.

Easterross

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

and conspiracy theorists will claim he is doing so to jack up the YES votes and ensure separation occurs! Bottom line is that he has the blood of Bruce flowing through his veins and doesn't want to see the land of his ancestors split from the land of his birth.

SimonStClare

Freggles said:

TGOHF said:

Ed on BBC1 at 8.10 - bad timing for him.

He'll say polls go up and down - you heard it here first

I don’t think Miliband should be too concerned with the Ashcroft and ICM Westminster VI polls giving the Tories a 2 point lead - or even the poll showing Labour behind in the Euros. But, Ed’s personal ratings now trailing that of Clegg must really set the alarm bells ringing...!

Easterross

Stuart_Dickson said:

- "For Labour has always had a challenge getting its supporters out to vote when the government of the country is not a stake."

This is an absolutely crucial point to take on board for IndyRef betters. While turnout is expected to be high, there will be differential turnout. There always is. And the party supporters least likely to actually get off the sofa and vote on 18 September are Labour. They nearly always are.

The Scottish Tories and the few Scottish Lib Dems left are all highly motivated, and at least 90% of them are leaning NO. David Cameron can depend upon these folk to get out and vote for London rule.

The Scottish National Party is also highly motivated. If anything even more so. At least 80% of our supporters are leaning YES and we can depend on these folk to get out and vote for Scottish self government.

Green support is small, and although heavily YES supporting, it has a significant NO tendency. They will only be decisive in an extremely tight result, which is entirely possible. They are not the world's most reliable voters, perhaps because they tend to be younger.

UKIP in Scotland are also small, but are presumably mostly leaning NO, and will get out to vote.

But Scottish Labour, the country's second-largest party, is the big mystery. After perusing Scottish polling for many years, it is clear that up to 40% of SLab voters lean towards YES. That has been during the long years of Labour governments in London. Now, with the Tories GB-wide pulling ahead in the polls, could that 40% "ceiling" be about to be breached? Add in their famous reluctance to get out to vote in anything other than UK general elections, and SLab voters are absolutely critical.

This will make things unclear right up to the final few days. Great territory for punters looking for value.

Very good analysis Stuart but of course the combined Tory and LibDem vote in Scotland will be a very sizeable NO block. However as we have agreed since day 1, it will be the WWC traditional Labour voters who will push YES over the line or hold the union together.

Scott_P

Alex Salmond has been accused of making another blunder on the international stage after fishing leaders contradicted his claim that Europe's fleets could be barred from Scottish waters.

The Scottish Fishermen's Federation (SFF) has written to the First Minister seeking clarification after he warned that continental ships could be stopped from reaching Norway if Scotland loses its European Union membership.

The body said the claim directly contradicts the principle of "innocent passage", which allows ships to transit through foreign waters and is protected by the UN Convention on the law of the sea.

In a further embarrassment for Mr Salmond, it emerged that only last week Angus Robertson – the SNP leader in Westminster – publicly restated the party's support of that law while discussing Trident nuclear weapon.

Opposition parties said the First Minister's speech containing the claim was "unravelling at a rate of knots" and showed he was becoming "desperate".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10826006/Alex-Salmonds-Scottish-waters-threat-contravenes-UN-rules.html

Edin_Rokz

Stuart_Dickson said:

Edin_Rokz said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

Aye, and efter, he'll awa hame tae think agin :^)

I love that term "Union Dividend". It is one of the finest own-goals dreamed up by Blair's backroom boys. I've always assumed that Jim Murphy was the culprit.

Obviously someone with Co-op experience. Mind you, who was the idiot who came up with "Celtic Tigers" or going back a wee bit further, gems like "Free in 93", "If nominated I'll decline. If drafted I'll defer. And if elected I'll resign "

Scrapheap_as_was

Will there be any late night results on telly, worth watching, next Thursday?

Scott_P

Edin_Rokz said:

Obviously someone with Co-op experience. Mind you, who was the idiot who came up with "Celtic Tigers" or going back a wee bit further, gems like "Free in 93", "If nominated I'll decline. If drafted I'll defer. And if elected I'll resign "

Got to go a long way to beat "Arc of Insolvency Prosperity"

ToryJim

Scott_P said:

Alex Salmond has been accused of making another blunder on the international stage after fishing leaders contradicted his claim that Europe's fleets could be barred from Scottish waters.

The Scottish Fishermen's Federation (SFF) has written to the First Minister seeking clarification after he warned that continental ships could be stopped from reaching Norway if Scotland loses its European Union membership.

The body said the claim directly contradicts the principle of "innocent passage", which allows ships to transit through foreign waters and is protected by the UN Convention on the law of the sea.

In a further embarrassment for Mr Salmond, it emerged that only last week Angus Robertson – the SNP leader in Westminster – publicly restated the party's support of that law while discussing Trident nuclear weapon.

Opposition parties said the First Minister's speech containing the claim was "unravelling at a rate of knots" and showed he was becoming "desperate".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10826006/Alex-Salmonds-Scottish-waters-threat-contravenes-UN-rules.html

Has he told them they're all wrong yet?

Easterross

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown ;

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

Sorry my noble and learned kinsman, I will be doing that dirty thing "work" so hope to catch up on the ARSE later on in the day. Hope it's a corker though, just for the benefit of Mick Porky Pies and chums.

JackW

@Easterross

My dear fellow, are you beginning to revise your thinking on a YES win ?

Little over four months out and not a sign that YES is making any significant progress. Is it not going all a bit Pete Tong for the separatists .... and now we have Wee Eck all at sea over fishing !!

[Deleted User]

Patrick's forecast on what the new ARSE will say due in 1 minute 45 seconds

[Deleted User]

The new Arse will be the same as the old ARSE apart from Tories +1 and Labour-1. Oh and Ukip -1 and LD +1 (but who cares about them?).

Errr....that's it.

Scrapheap_as_was

The last few years for Labour have been an exercise in Tinkerbell politics. Where if you really, really believe, then the wish becomes reality. Unfortunately the centre-ground has not magically shifted to the left, there is no pre-ordained progressive majority in Britain and unless an opposition tackles its negatives on the economy and leadership, it will ultimately be doomed.

Yesterday might have been a rude awakening for some Milibelievers, but for Labour’s realists, it was long expected and merely marked the next stage of what is going to be an increasingly difficult year for Labour.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/05/13/finally-the-scales-begin-to-fall-from-the-milibelievers-eyes/#more-18262

JackW

Easterross said:

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown ;

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

Sorry my noble and learned kinsman, I will be doing that dirty thing "work" so hope to catch up on the ARSE later on in the day. Hope it's a corker though, just for the benefit of Mick Porky Pies and chums.

Commiserations on the "work" vulgarity.

However to ease your predicament I can exclusively reveal to you, prior to the official 9:00am release, that for one party this new projection will register a record performance.

ToryJim

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Will there be any late night results on telly, worth watching, next Thursday?

I'm expecting the area I'm involved with will count overnight. Third of seats up plus a simultaneous by-election 10 Tory defences 1 Lab. Overall council situation 27 Con 3 Lab. It will probably be slightly more interesting this time than most. Usually it's 1 Lab win and everything else Tory, this time I'm anticipating 1 maybe 2 UKIP in the mix as well.

malcolmg

Edin_Rokz said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

Aye, and efter, he'll awa hame tae think agin :^)

Looks like Darling has been locked in the bunker with Lamont. They are so desperate now they are sending Cameron up. Wonder if he will do content free again and only talk to his Tory chums. For sure there will be no public debates.

[Deleted User]

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown ;

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

Sorry my noble and learned kinsman, I will be doing that dirty thing "work" so hope to catch up on the ARSE later on in the day. Hope it's a corker though, just for the benefit of Mick Porky Pies and chums.

Commiserations on the "work" vulgarity.

However to ease your predicament I can exclusively reveal to you, prior to the official 9:00am release, that for one party this new projection will register a record performance.

A record high or a record low?

Scrapheap_as_was

That's Scotland gone then.... some ex-posters won't be happy on this story either.

Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander has been drafted in to reinvigorate the Better Together campaign run by the former Chancellor amid growing concerns about his ‘lacklustre’ performance.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626699/Darling-sidelined-save-UK-lobby-Brown-bigger-role-against-SNP.html#ixzz31ZkKQ5wC

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

TGOHF said:

asjohnstone said:

I'd assume by now the Yes team are going hard on the "Milliband isn't going to make it, a No vote is a vote for 5 more years of tory rule" line ?

If done well it could be staggeringly effective

Converse is powerful too - a Yes win will mean more Salmond forever...

Sindy isn't popular with women and ABC classes.

Not so powerful, because not so true

Flash spouts rubbish he has read in London papers from down south. He does not know his arse from his elbow.

malcolmg

Easterross said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

and conspiracy theorists will claim he is doing so to jack up the YES votes and ensure separation occurs! Bottom line is that he has the blood of Bruce flowing through his veins and doesn't want to see the land of his ancestors split from the land of his birth.

Easterross , just unlucky it is Bruce Forsyth and not from the King of Scots

JackW

Patrick said:

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown ;

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

Sorry my noble and learned kinsman, I will be doing that dirty thing "work" so hope to catch up on the ARSE later on in the day. Hope it's a corker though, just for the benefit of Mick Porky Pies and chums.

Commiserations on the "work" vulgarity.

However to ease your predicament I can exclusively reveal to you, prior to the official 9:00am release, that for one party this new projection will register a record performance.

A record high or a record low?

Actually .... Drum Roll ....

A record high .... A record low and a joint record low.

Blue_rog

JohnLoony said:

Happy Birthday to Alexander Rybak.

Is that the fighting cook on an old destroyer?

Easterross

malcolmg said:

Easterross said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

and conspiracy theorists will claim he is doing so to jack up the YES votes and ensure separation occurs! Bottom line is that he has the blood of Bruce flowing through his veins and doesn't want to see the land of his ancestors split from the land of his birth.

Easterross , just unlucky it is Bruce Forsyth and not from the King of Scots

Malcolm I know you must have been joking. Like me, David Cameron is descended from Robert the Bruce many times over. He is also descended from at least 10 of the men who signed the Declaration of Arbroath, as am I, but since he and I are distant cousins, as is Boris, hardly surprising.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

Edin_Rokz said:

Obviously someone with Co-op experience. Mind you, who was the idiot who came up with "Celtic Tigers" or going back a wee bit further, gems like "Free in 93", "If nominated I'll decline. If drafted I'll defer. And if elected I'll resign "

Got to go a long way to beat "Arc of Insolvency Prosperity"

Toom Tabard at his best. Do you see any of them poor then , any idea how well they compare to bankrupt Britain on every scale from wealth to health and happiness.

[Deleted User]

Ooooh....

Record high is Dave?
Record low is Miliblob?
Joint record low is the pushmepullyouyellowperileurotrashsanctimoniousknobsparty?

Guess I'll just have to wait.

malcolmg

Scrapheap_as_was said:

That's Scotland gone then.... some ex-posters won't be happy on this story either.

Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander has been drafted in to reinvigorate the Better Together campaign run by the former Chancellor amid growing concerns about his ‘lacklustre’ performance.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626699/Darling-sidelined-save-UK-lobby-Brown-bigger-role-against-SNP.html#ixzz31ZkKQ5wC

How could it get better Mutt and Jeff drafted in on the same day. Dave and Dougie , what a team. Better Together deploy their secret weapon , The Chuckle Brothers are coming lock up your wives and children.

Easterross

JackW said:

@Easterross

My dear fellow, are you beginning to revise your thinking on a YES win ?

Little over four months out and not a sign that YES is making any significant progress. Is it not going all a bit Pete Tong for the separatists .... and now we have Wee Eck all at sea over fishing !!

Sadly not yet Jack. The anecdotal evidence is that the YESNP are working hard in the parts the Labour lager drinkers cannot reach i.e. the working class housing estates on the outskirts of the major towns and cities. I expect free everything to be on offer for every YES voter until 19th September 2014 when the sell by date will kick in.

malcolmg

Easterross said:

malcolmg said:

Easterross said:

old_labour said:

DAVID Cameron will throw himself into the independence campaign with a two-day visit to Scotland this week as Whitehall prepares to put a precise figure on how much the United Kingdom benefits each and every Scot, the so-called "Union dividend".

and conspiracy theorists will claim he is doing so to jack up the YES votes and ensure separation occurs! Bottom line is that he has the blood of Bruce flowing through his veins and doesn't want to see the land of his ancestors split from the land of his birth.

Easterross , just unlucky it is Bruce Forsyth and not from the King of Scots

Malcolm I know you must have been joking. Like me, David Cameron is descended from Robert the Bruce many times over. He is also descended from at least 10 of the men who signed the Declaration of Arbroath, as am I, but since he and I are distant cousins, as is Boris, hardly surprising.

Easterross, I have to say for him at least the watering down over the centuries has not been very beneficial. No slight intended on your good self as you cannot choose your relatives. I am not impressed by him or his heritage on any front. In my opinion he is useless and the sooner we are rid the better, I prefer democracy and the government that the country votes for rather than our current democratic deficit.

PS Of course I was jesting

volcanopete

Another Tory MP being investigated over expenses.Ladbrokes price up Bristol north West.4-6 Con,5-4 Lab, 16-1 L/D,100-1 Ukip.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html

Smarmeron

@Easterross

King Robert was a PR spiv as well. Must be a family tradition?

ToryJim

volcanopete said:

Another Tory MP being investigated over expenses.Ladbrokes price up Bristol north West.4-6 Con,5-4 Lab, 16-1 L/D,100-1 Ukip.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html

She isn't being investigated over expenses, and reading the article it seems an oversight rather than a conspiracy

CarlottaVance

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

TheScreamingEagles

Last night I had a dream that two phone polls, including ICM, showed the Tories ahead.

MarkSenior

volcanopete said:

Another Tory MP being investigated over expenses.Ladbrokes price up Bristol north West.4-6 Con,5-4 Lab, 16-1 L/D,100-1 Ukip.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html

the story has nothing to do with expenses but with not registering donations and possibly cash for questions .

TGOHF

Freggles said:

TGOHF said:

Ed on BBC1 at 8.10 - bad timing for him.

He'll say polls go up and down - you heard it here first

Give that man a coconut - word for word correct...

Carnyx

Scott_P said:

Alex Salmond has been accused of making another blunder on the international stage after fishing leaders contradicted his claim that Europe's fleets could be barred from Scottish waters.

The Scottish Fishermen's Federation (SFF) has written to the First Minister seeking clarification after he warned that continental ships could be stopped from reaching Norway if Scotland loses its European Union membership.

The body said the claim directly contradicts the principle of "innocent passage", which allows ships to transit through foreign waters and is protected by the UN Convention on the law of the sea.

In a further embarrassment for Mr Salmond, it emerged that only last week Angus Robertson – the SNP leader in Westminster – publicly restated the party's support of that law while discussing Trident nuclear weapon.

Opposition parties said the First Minister's speech containing the claim was "unravelling at a rate of knots" and showed he was becoming "desperate".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10826006/Alex-Salmonds-Scottish-waters-threat-contravenes-UN-rules.html

This is a very odd piece - one might think deliberate obfuscation. As I understand it, and has already been much discussed, this is nothing to do with transit rights but fishing rights. The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.

SimonStClare

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 2m

#SaveEd: Miliband had a worse approval rating than Nick Clegg in today's Guardian/ICM poll http://order-order.com/2014/05/12/tories-beat-ukip-to-first-place-in-guardianicm-euros-poll/

twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/466114252420710400/photo/1

peterbuss

Its true that Blair did not win the Euro's but I don't think that's quite comparing like with like. Blair was in Govt and usually these elections are an opportunity to give the governing Party a good kicking. Even Kinnock won them. If Labour did finish below the Conservatives then being in Opposition I can't think it would be anything other than a dreadful result for them.

Carnyx

CarlottaVance said:

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

In that case the entire annuity industry is showing deplorable taste when it gives people higher pensions based on health status. It is also highly relevant to unionist arguments about the cost of pensions.

Financier

Peter Kellner's comment on http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/12/miliband-we-back-his-policies-not-man/, picks out the word competent as one of the reasons for these poll findings.

As much of the electorate is quite cynical about the promises of politicians and their proven inability to keep these promises, EdM leaves himself open to this conclusion. He is very good at compiling a popular wish list but very poor (or non-existent) at explaining how it will be done. Thus it is highly probable that the electorate may conclude that he is 'all mouth and no trousers' - as the saying goes and would be unable to keep those promises.

Energy has been in the news enough (including that it was under EdM's care for some years) for people to realise that much of our energy supply is owned by non-UK companies. Also that energy prices cannot be controlled unless the UK owns/controls both the generation facility and its power source (e,g, gas, oil, coal etc).
If any of these are subject to a global market, then EdM's promise is false.

Wth rent controls, how would he ensure the quality of housing was maintained by the owner (more civil servants?) and not a return to Rachmanism.

Similarly any politician can promise jobs for all (wasn't that another EdM promise?) but unless it is explained how that will be done and how it will be paid for - that promise is false.

In the ST YouGov, even Labour voters expressed a preference for his brother DM over Ed by 39/12. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/45cxqhtvw7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140509.pdf

Scott_P

Carnyx said:

The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.

Er, that's the point.

Access to Norwegian waters is non-negotiable, guaranteed by a UN convention that the SNP claim to support

DavidL

Weirdly the world seems much the same this morning as it did yesterday morning. Of all the polls last night the one that still stands out is the fall of 12 in voting intention for Labour in the Euros. That is an incredible fall and cries out for an explanation. Maybe a more realistic certainty to vote?

As for hiding Darling in the cupboard, well I am going to hear him speak at Dundee University next week.

I am glad that Cameron is throwing himself into the campaign too. It is not without risks given the key voting group are Scottish Labour but Scots need to feel wanted by the country they are being asked to stay a part of and that is the PM's job. Not sure spurious calculations of "dividends" is the right way to go though. I would emphasise aspiration and opportunity over cash.

The next few days are going to be the key to the referendum as yesterday's polls sink in, especially if they are repeated. Yes is in the last chance saloon but they still have a chance. It is fortunate that Salmond is making a fool of himself yet again. The idea of him leading an independent Scotland becomes ever more frightening for ABC Scots.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Freggles, Mr. Flashman (deceased), not sure people deserve rewards for predicting the words of Miliband:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCem9EZb-YA

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: J Chapman reporting Darling dumped from No campaign and replaced by Douglas Alexander. Or, Alexander dumped as head of Labour campaign.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Carnyx, isn't Scotland forecast to see a faster rise in life expectancy than elsewhere, though, as well as a worsening (in relative terms) working to non working ratio?

CarlottaVance

Carnyx said:

CarlottaVance said:

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

It is also highly relevant to unionist arguments about the cost of pensions.

But not to the success of devolved health care? Nor Scotland's higher dependency ratio?

Carnyx

Scott_P said:

Carnyx said:

The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.

Er, that's the point.

Access to Norwegian waters is non-negotiable, guaranteed by a UN convention that the SNP claim to support

They can sail in them. It's whether they can fish in them is the point.

TheScreamingEagles

But I was assured Ali Darling was brilliant.

@jameschappers: EXC Alistair Darling 'effectively dumped' from campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following secret cross-party talks http://t.co/XVdnZx2TiP

eek

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: J Chapman reporting Darling dumped from No campaign and replaced by Douglas Alexander. Or, Alexander dumped as head of Labour campaign.

So to save the union the best we have is someone who has already lost two elections to the SNP (which given the 2011 result shows that he didn't learn anything the first time round) coordinated Labour’s loss in 2010 and then ran David Miliband’s doomed leadership campaign.

Can we just be honest and wish Scotland farewell and good luck....

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

Last night I had a dream that two phone polls, including ICM, showed the Tories ahead.

*slaps TSE around face after dousing him with cold water*

Crazy talk. Had there been crossover then surely Compouter would have popped up by now.

Slackbladder

TheScreamingEagles said:

But I was assured Ali Darling was brilliant.

@jameschappers: EXC Alistair Darling 'effectively dumped' from campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following secret cross-party talks http://t.co/XVdnZx2TiP

Poor old tim... the last few days must have been hard on the farmer/ offie owner.

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

Carnyx said:

The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.

Er, that's the point.

Access to Norwegian waters is non-negotiable, guaranteed by a UN convention that the SNP claim to support

Outside of the 12 mile zone, vessels can transit as they please. How can something so simple, prove so difficult for the Gnats to understand?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters

Unless Eck is going for a North Korean style isolationist policy.

Out of the Union, out of the EU and out of the UN.

Freggles

TGOHF said:

Freggles said:

TGOHF said:

Ed on BBC1 at 8.10 - bad timing for him.

He'll say polls go up and down - you heard it here first

Give that man a coconut - word for word correct...

I'm a red liberal, but increasingly seems like Ed could be outsourced to a pre programmed algorithm. It could extract policy proposals from Guardian comments , but only ones that are measurableq

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

But I was assured Ali Darling was brilliant.

@jameschappers: EXC Alistair Darling 'effectively dumped' from campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following secret cross-party talks http://t.co/XVdnZx2TiP

Darling was only brilliant compared to Brown. Which is a very low comparator.

foxinsoxuk

It is true that Scots die younger, despite greater spending on health per capita. It does seem a strange bit of campaigning to claim this as a positive!

Carnyx said:

CarlottaVance said:

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

In that case the entire annuity industry is showing deplorable taste when it gives people higher pensions based on health status. It is also highly relevant to unionist arguments about the cost of pensions.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

30 minutes 30 seconds

Scott_P

Carnyx said:

They can sail in them. It's whether they can fish in them is the point.

That's the problem.

Eck said that the fleets would be stopped from sailing through Scottish waters to reach Norwegian waters

" the fishing fleets of 12 countries being denied any access to Scottish waters and as a consequence, their access to Norwegian waters, which is also dependent on Scottish access "

Access to Norwegian waters, not fishing in Norwegian waters

JosiasJessop

TheWatcher said:

Scott_P said:

Carnyx said:

The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.

Er, that's the point.

Access to Norwegian waters is non-negotiable, guaranteed by a UN convention that the SNP claim to support

Outside of the 12 mile zone, vessels can transit as they please. How can something so simple, prove so difficult for the Gnats to understand?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters

Unless Eck is going for a North Korean style isolationist policy.

Out of the Union, out of the EU and out of the UN.

Perhaps they're going to use their undoubted expertise in fish-farming to create a gigantic net 12 miles out to keep their fish in?

RochdalePioneers

Regarding Milliband, issues and competence, I get it. People question his ability to deliver these policies because they are difficult. But at least he has identified them as problems - and they are for millions - so that as the campaign goes on and the Tories go into full denial mode, that's when it will resonate more.

Ashcroft shows just 1 in 8 are feeling any economic recovery, so the Tories repeatedly restating economic miracle just makes this disconnect between stated and actual reality wider and wider. It will be the same on energy. And rent. And cost of living. And access to GPs. Milliband has been great at identifying genuine problems just not yet persuasive at how he would fix them. And I think the reality here is that under the current failed economic model many are unfixable.

We have a major housing crisis and its getting worse. Landlords have to short let as the bankrupt banks demand it thanks to liquidity rules demanded by their insurers (HMG). Which combined with a lack of supply ramps prices so that people now are increasingly unable to afford to rent never mind buy. The solution is obvious - build social housing. But government and local govt are apparently broke and the developers don't want to know.....

DavidL

There was an interesting debate on Start the Week yesterday morning on leadership and part of it was the importance of effective number 2s. Darling has always struck me as a good number 2 providing an air of competence and solidity which helped even when his boss was a lunatic.

But many of the facets that made him good in that role raise issues as to whether he should be the leader. Mistake number 452 (it was a while ago) Salmond made in this campaign was not debating Darling. While not the world's best debater Salmond would have had a lot more life about him. Probably too late now.

It is long past time that the Labour party in Scotland started taking this referendum a lot more seriously. Unionist friends of mine in Labour have been intensely frustrated at their apparent paralysis. They have a lot of work to do and a limited amount of time.

felix

If nothing else yesterday'a polls should put a stop to all the nonsense we used to have about it being impossible for Labour to poll below 35/36% because of the LD switchers. It's clear now that they can be pulled down a lot lower if these early indicators are sustained or develop. Also clear that the 2015 GE remains too close to call.

malcolmg

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Another Tory MP being investigated over expenses.Ladbrokes price up Bristol north West.4-6 Con,5-4 Lab, 16-1 L/D,100-1 Ukip.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html

She isn't being investigated over expenses, and reading the article it seems an oversight rather than a conspiracy

LOL, an oversight. Sure that would be a good defence for anyone who inadvertently pocketed benefits they were not due.

TheWatcher

RochdalePioneers said:

Regarding Milliband, issues and competence, I get it. People question his ability to deliver these policies because they are difficult. But at least he has identified them as problems - and they are for millions - so that as the campaign goes on and the Tories go into full denial mode, that's when it will resonate more.

Ashcroft shows just 1 in 8 are feeling any economic recovery, so the Tories repeatedly restating economic miracle just makes this disconnect between stated and actual reality wider and wider. It will be the same on energy. And rent. And cost of living. And access to GPs. Milliband has been great at identifying genuine problems just not yet persuasive at how he would fix them. And I think the reality here is that under the current failed economic model many are unfixable.

We have a major housing crisis and its getting worse. Landlords have to short let as the bankrupt banks demand it thanks to liquidity rules demanded by their insurers (HMG). Which combined with a lack of supply ramps prices so that people now are increasingly unable to afford to rent never mind buy. The solution is obvious - build social housing. But government and local govt are apparently broke and the developers don't want to know.....

Remind us how many social housing homes were built between 1997 and 2010. Labour could have addressed this issue, but did nothing.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

It is merely a statement of fact, unionists are always crowing about low life expectancy in Scotland. This is a perfect reason why we need to be independent, people paying tax for pensions and age being raised as they are subsidising the south of England. So they get robbed twice.

felix

RochdalePioneers said:

Regarding Milliband, issues and competence, I get it. People question his ability to deliver these policies because they are difficult. But at least he has identified them as problems - and they are for millions - so that as the campaign goes on and the Tories go into full denial mode, that's when it will resonate more.

Ashcroft shows just 1 in 8 are feeling any economic recovery, so the Tories repeatedly restating economic miracle just makes this disconnect between stated and actual reality wider and wider. It will be the same on energy. And rent. And cost of living. And access to GPs. Milliband has been great at identifying genuine problems just not yet persuasive at how he would fix them. And I think the reality here is that under the current failed economic model many are unfixable.

We have a major housing crisis and its getting worse. Landlords have to short let as the bankrupt banks demand it thanks to liquidity rules demanded by their insurers (HMG). Which combined with a lack of supply ramps prices so that people now are increasingly unable to afford to rent never mind buy. The solution is obvious - build social housing. But government and local govt are apparently broke and the developers don't want to know.....

Oh dear - don't like the harsh realities of life but don't expect the public to believe in the Milimagicmoney tree solutions. Labour need to get real or get off the bus. End of.

TGOHF

Ed now on R5 : "polls go up and down"

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

Scott_P said:

Alex Salmond has been accused of making another blunder on the international stage after fishing leaders contradicted his claim that Europe's fleets could be barred from Scottish waters.

The Scottish Fishermen's Federation (SFF) has written to the First Minister seeking clarification after he warned that continental ships could be stopped from reaching Norway if Scotland loses its European Union membership.

The body said the claim directly contradicts the principle of "innocent passage", which allows ships to transit through foreign waters and is protected by the UN Convention on the law of the sea.

In a further embarrassment for Mr Salmond, it emerged that only last week Angus Robertson – the SNP leader in Westminster – publicly restated the party's support of that law while discussing Trident nuclear weapon.

Opposition parties said the First Minister's speech containing the claim was "unravelling at a rate of knots" and showed he was becoming "desperate".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10826006/Alex-Salmonds-Scottish-waters-threat-contravenes-UN-rules.html

This is a very odd piece - one might think deliberate obfuscation. As I understand it, and has already been much discussed, this is nothing to do with transit rights but fishing rights. The access to Norwegian waters for fishing by EU boats was negotiated in exchange for Norwegian boats' right to Scottish waters. Remove Scotland from the EU and the conclusion is inevitable.


Carnyx, If it is posted by SCOTTP you know it is a blatant lie.

felix

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I did think this was in questionable taste:

Alex Salmond’s campaign for independence has been accused of plumbing “appalling” depths after two senior ministers argued a separate Scotland would be able to afford a more generous state pension because its OAPs would die younger.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, and Shona Robison used the country’s poor health record to claim that Scottish pensioners should be given more money because their lower life expectancy means they have shorter retirements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10825904/SNP-uses-appalling-pensioner-death-figures-to-argue-for-independence.html

It is merely a statement of fact, unionists are always crowing about low life expectancy in Scotland. This is a perfect reason why we need to be independent, people paying tax for pensions and age being raised as they are subsidising the south of England. So they get robbed twice.

Too much whisky with the oats today?

Morris_Dancer

I find this quite interesting, a piece about sleep and lack thereof:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-27286872

Fun fact: a human will shift to a 25 hour day if they live in an environment without natural cues of light and dark (like a cave). Psychologists tested to see the impact of living in such a place, and the subject was surprised to get out so early as he thought (after quite a few weeks) he still had a few more days to go.

TheWatcher

TGOHF said:

Ed now on R5 : "polls go up and down"

The trend is not Ed's friend.

felix

TGOHF said:

Ed now on R5 : "polls go up and down"

One thing no-one can accuse Miliband of - originality.

Sunil_Prasannan

Greetings from Calicut in Kerala, Southern India. I've been here over two weeks, but will be back in the UK by Friday night, the same day as the result of the Indian Election.

Exit polls predicting a big swing towards the right-wing BJP and its NDA (National Democratic Alliance) allies, the BJP itself winning up to 240 or so seats, giving the Right their first taste of government since they lost to the Congress Party and its UPA (United Progressive Alliance) allies back at the 2004 election.

Remember, this is isn't the BJP's first outright election win - that was back at the 1998 election, but a striking feature this time round is the scale of the Congress Party's rout. Some exit pollsters are predicting the party will be reduced to less than 100 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha, India's Lower House.

The other salient feature is a record 66.4% turnout. Obviously, whatever you think of his controversial past as Gujarat's Chief Minister, Narendra Modi has motivated the Indian electorate to a great degree. The other surprise is the Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party's poor showing in their stronghold of Delhi, the exit polls in the capital suggesting the BJP have won six of seven seats. Still, it would be interesting to see if the exit pollsters have got it right come Friday night! If you're wondering about Kerala, it's basically a straight fight between Congress and UPA allies, and the Communist Parties (either of Marxist flavour
or the non-Marxist one!) - the BJP currently have no seats here...

Here are a couple of SeanT style pics of Kappad beach (Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama's landing site in 1498), and a sunset some way south of there at Kadalundi. Both are recommended, and they are only a half-hour drive from Calicut city. However, the beach at the city itself is a little on the dirty side!

The weather is generally hot all day, but had a brief monsoon-like spell last Wednesday and Thursday, a few weeks ahead the scheduled start of the real monsoon.

http://t.co/eFwvgqtp1Q
http://t.co/SwyZPhOUOO

JosiasJessop

RochdalePioneers said:

Regarding Milliband, issues and competence, I get it. People question his ability to deliver these policies because they are difficult. But at least he has identified them as problems - and they are for millions - so that as the campaign goes on and the Tories go into full denial mode, that's when it will resonate more.
(snip)

In which case you highlight them as problems, and define those problems. You then come up with a number of potential workable solutions. You also study the downsides to each of the solutions. Finally you pick the best of the bunch, or do nothing if the solutions are worse than the problem they are trying to cure.

Miliband and Labour have done the first stage and highlighted problems. However they then come up with an utterly stupid solution for each one. Not just unworkable ones, but patently stupid ones. It is fun seeing the tribal Labour supporters on here perform acrobatics in trying to justify them.

Sadly, this is not just a Labour problem, but they are masters at it.

RochdalePioneers

TheWatcher said:

Remind us how many social housing homes were built between 1997 and 2010. Labour could have addressed this issue, but did nothing.

Indeed - inaction from governments from Thatcher onwards has created this crisis. Is your suggestion that because Tory and Labour governments of the past did nothing that Tory and Labour governments of the future also have to do nothing?

A large part of this country's large problems stem from your response - "what did X do". We have to think longer than 4 or 5 yearly election cycles. Other countries do, which is why they have infrastructure fit for purpose.

ToryJim

malcolmg said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Another Tory MP being investigated over expenses.Ladbrokes price up Bristol north West.4-6 Con,5-4 Lab, 16-1 L/D,100-1 Ukip.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-MP-Charlotte-Leslie-faces-investigation/story-21086999-detail/story.html

She isn't being investigated over expenses, and reading the article it seems an oversight rather than a conspiracy

LOL, an oversight. Sure that would be a good defence for anyone who inadvertently pocketed benefits they were not due.

Actually read the article again and I just don't see anything here. It needs to be investigated but I just don't buy into this perpetual pitchfork mentality over MPs.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, it's fair to say Scotland has a lower life expectancy, but the affordability argument also involves health expenditure and the working to non-working ratio, which is worse in Scotland (I think) than England.

We (well, you, I don't get a vote) also need to consider the future trend for those things.