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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in the red camp
Whenever a new poll comes up showing two or three points changes someone always comes on to say it is all within the margin of error. And so it is from a mathematical point of view.
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Colin Furze makes real life Wolverine Claws
Mr. Isam, without commenting on the interview (not interested enough to listen to it) I hope they don't go for Paxman Mark 2. Paxman was full of himself, more interested in catching people out and scalp-hunting than actually interviewing them. His 'interview' with the Jesus and Mo cartoonist was a new low, where he attacked the cartoonist for being 'offensive' and never once raised any point in favour of freedom of speech (not just in the interview but the piece beforehand, there was just one mention of that during the whole Jesus and Mo section).
Not a Robinson fan as political editor but when he was stand-in Newsnight presenter I thought he did a much better job of chairing a discussion than the regulars, and was less full of himself and more measured than them.
On-topic: it appears that the brief blue lead was transient (although probably real, given multiple pollsters pointing towards level-pegging or blue leads). I'm baffled as to why it occurred in the first place, but there we are.
oh and fpt for James O'Brien, should have been:
"Mr Farage - on immigration, how do you explain the similarity in language and tone of your recent leaflet campaign with that of the National Front and the BNP? For a party that seeks to dissociate itself from those racist parties why does UKIP mimic their approach? Although UKIP may not be racist, why wouldn't your leaflets appeal to racists?"
"“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. "
and I think that sums the current state of public political opinion up quite well.
This one has a moustache for sure. Golf club president, maybe:
I tell you what Mr Hodges. If UKIP win next week, then I expect you to resign from writing this drivel in the DT. If they lose, I will take my 3 degress (inc. PhD) and my business, and find another country to live and work (outside the EU).
You can fashion your own lovely EU communist dream as you see fit, and I won't be there to harass you. That sounds fair to me. You really make me sick to the stomach.
Marvellous.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
The relentless hate campaign against Ukip exceeds even the vile abuse to which Margaret Thatcher was subjected: the politics of the gutter
To be fair, If those were the questions fired at Farage, he should have been able to answer them.
Secondly, any party that talks about controlling immigration gets the same thing thrown at them (Michael Howrds Conservatives "Are you thinking what we are thinking", Gordon Brown "British Jobs For British Workers".
It is difficult for anyone to talk about controlling imigration without gettin the BNP thrown at them by pro immigrationist. It is the cowardly debating technique of attacking a strawman rather than the actual point.
The leaflets wouldnt appeal to racists because they never mention race (or religion come to that)
There are clear lines between UKIP & BNP
BNP want to end all immigration
UKIP want controlled immigration
The other 3 want open door immigration
UKIP are the middle ground
BNP want to repatriate immigrants
UKIP dont
BNP make a distinction between people on the basis of skin colour
UKIP dont
Andrew NEill must have ruled himself out of the NEwsnight job surely? He wouldnt be 33/1 if he was a runner, should be fav
Local Council Efficiency
10.30 am: Cabin Cruiser catches fire about 1m offshore.
10.45 am: Man rescued from boat by lifeboat.
11.15 am: Rockets on board start exploding into the sky. Also danger of gas canisters exploding.
Police close off road adjacent to beach.
1.30 pm Boat sinks.
2.10 pm Police belatedly open the road.
2.15 pm: Council men (6) arrive with 3 vans and 1 lorry to close off the road.
What had they been doing all day - watching the soaps and daytime tv?
2.25:pm: Council men remove road closed signs and return to depot to sign off for the week.
And anyway, who cares what he does with his collection of Philadelphia soul music?
twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/467292253082640385/photo/1
This is such a lazy caricature, generally made by people who have never set foot in a golf club.
All golf clubs bars I've been to are pretty quiet places, generally because the members tend to be out playing.....err.....golf.
I've been in a few, but I've never heard politics talked in any of them.
"Ed says that they've got an inbuilt advantage that means that even if they lose the popular vote, they can still take power. Ed asked if I understood and I said, "Yeah – I'm from Chicago." Like Michelle says, "We're so freakin' popular out there, even the dead vote for us.""
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#London_polls
FPT - Lansley's a possibility, true. Yeo would fit the grunatic criteria, but he's not a future Cabinet Minister (and wasn't in 2010). I didn't have Hague down as a greenie - but perhaps I am wrong?
David Alexrod @DavidAlexrod
Great to see UK Labor leader @DMiliband is following me. Looking forward to working for you. pic.twitter.com/qJGh3Ufklo
Retweeted by Guido Fawkes
Them Romanians
Coming over here, taking
Our jobs. Send ‘em back.
Oi LibLabCon scum!
Repaint our trains in proper
Colours you BASTARDS
I have also come up with a clerihew:
Nigel Farage
We should not disparage.
Although James O’Brien socked it to him right up the shitter
He kept his temper and isn’t bitter.
Do any other PBers enjoy, as I do, composing eccentric verse forms about protest parties?
Do you know Camerons immigration policy in a Tory majority then? Can you tell?
Haikus, coming over here -
we've got LIMERICKS
When you were a nipper
When you misbehaved
Were you hit with a slipper?
http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
Now I'm not so sure.
They are saying IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION...
And hence the similarity between UKIP those other two parties. Who knew or knows what the BNP policy on corporation tax is? The problem UKIP faces is that they seem obsessed. Everything Farage said in that interview was fine IMO - he answered the questions but he didn't address (and O'Brien didn't press) the central theme - UKIP has become a natural home for those who see immigration as their overriding concern. Their only concern perhaps. That is the danger.
And, for the nth time, having been in principle a supporter of UKIP's right to have the immigration (and EU) debate, looking at their current campaign leaflets really shocked me. It put them big style on the wrong side of the line between debate and dog whistle ugly politics.
And for the (n+1)th time it is why I am keen that they move on and broaden their approach to other pressing political matters.
Because if they don't then the suspicion will remain that they quite like that association. You cannot produce an election leaflet and conduct a campaign which only mentions immigration and then wonder why everyone screams racist. Today you just can't.
I understand the distinctions you make between BNP/UKIP but really Sam, do you think the bulk of the electorate get the nuances?
He's one of them shape shifting
lizard BASTARDS, duuuuh!
By failing to bring back the birch.
All villains should get a damn good thrashin'
Except expenses-fiddling UKIP MEPs, among whom dishonesty is in fashion.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100271837/climate-change-its-time-to-declare-a-truce-in-the-war-between-warmists-and-deniers/
There once was a Kipper called Sam
Who'd never touch New Zealand lamb
Nothing foreign for him
Which kept him quite slim
As he only ate Somerset ham
E.g. use "rape" in the wrong context - hang him!
UKIP is like a swarm of political in-correctness, which must be like scratching fingernails down a black chalk board to these people. And they respond accordingly.
But never can cause any damage
As much they bait
He just sits and waits
Til they look like a fuckwitted cabbage
Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie
No party in modern history has come under such sustained attack and misrepresentation as Ukip - writes @OborneTweets http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10830882/British-politics-is-broken-and-only-Nigel-Farage-is-profiting.html …
Castrated a few Mau Mau suspects or terminated some Armalite-toting bog trotters would be more the thing.
I'm walking around with a permanent....
...smile on my face!
My view is that on that particular point he is wrong: I'd put the difficulty as 'High, verging on impossible'.
Others might disagree, but no-one can really know - except for one thing: the Kippers are living in an Alex-Salmond-style cloud cuckoo land, convincing themselves that they can get everything they want and the people they are negotiating with will have zero say in the matter.
It is the total failure to address reality on points such as this which is my principal gripe with UKIP. Where is the grown-up discussion of Brexit? The article you cited is a good starting point, but if UKIP want to convince people like me - and I am quite persuadable, as I've said before I think the balance is shifting towards Out - I need answers grounded in reality, not la-la land.
The EU doesnt control whether we have Grammar schools, it doesnt set our tax rates etc, so why mention those topics? They are irrelevant for this election
What are the other parties talking about in terms of the EU?
The major vote winner regarding the EU is a stop to mass immigration through uncontrolled borders. I would expect UKIP's campaign this time next year to cover a a broader range of policies, but thats not for now
They are odds on favs to win most votes, I think its harsh to call it a turn off because its turned you off
Interesting, given Boris isn;t one to generally shy away from the media.
you need a seasonal word/theme. melting snow, cherry blossoms, autumn leaves.
otherwise, you have only part of a Tanka.
(You only live twice.
Once when you are born,
and once when you lookdeath in the face:
I suppose your meter has improved since this one. Although you could argue that stretching the point this has some kind of seasonal quality, birth death. but tenuous)
The predictions of those pro-warming (as it were) have been consistently wrong (cf the IPCC witnessing a plateau after predicting a rise then increasing their own self-confidence from 90% to 95%), and have other problems with credibility (the East Anglian e-mails and hockey stick spring to mind. Also, using ice cores does prove a correlation between carbon dioxide levels and temperature, but if an actual scientist thinks correlation means causation then they need to be beaten around the head with a dictionary and sent back to scientist school).
There are big areas of overlap between what we should do if warmists are right and if they are wrong (which I think they are), such as promoting energy efficiency and the like.
But the idea of truce is nonsense, as is scepticism somehow being bad. Science is all about competing theories, using evidence and new discoveries to support or disprove previous beliefs and then amend theories to take them into account.
This stuff really is thinner than Salmond's currency policy.
You could make a good argument for "groupthink" though.
Oh dear, dont think that of me!
I am not one of these "British is best" types, far from it
& I dont eat mammals!
Just as the environment shapes us, so do we shape the environment. If we left the EU that wouldn't only create an interesting situation for us, but one for the EU as well.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukips-nigel-farage-pulled-out-of-interview-with-london-live-because-tv-studio-would-not-provide-professional-makeup-artist-9382613.html
Mr taffy,just to prove your point ;-)
Is only a part of the story.
Because despite it, we've still had crossover,
Making us favourites in marginals like Dover,
But a majority? That's sheer jackanory!
So far two UKIPers have been on @LondonLive and had private conversations leaked to Lebedev papers. How not to run a TV channel.
That's a very interesting contribution Patrick. All of the end-rhymes are in fact assonances. Bravo!
Fair comment. How about this one?
Them gays, getting married,
Causing floods like a spring tide
of Romanians.
The polls find them trapped in a cleft.
For in spite of their lead,
Inspiration they need,
Of which they are clearly bereft.
Check these guys out - globalbritain.co.uk/
UKIP are also getting NOTA votes although some of those are leaking to the Greens.
UKIP turned me off because I can remember the BNP and the NF and this most recent campaign pushed the same and only theme which you can dress up or justify as you like: keep foreigners out.
Is that so bad?
Wait til the nukes land
On Islamabad
Genuine scientific scepticism though is usually the spur to research to remove the area of scepticism or find more data. Climate scepticism though is more akin to a form of nihilism. It doesn't follow the pattern of x doesn't make sense we need to know more about x pattern of science but rather, x doesn't make sense therefore anyone saying x is WRONG and also BAD PEOPLE.
I like scientific scepticism because it leads to better understanding, the other sort is about switching our torch off and leaving the room. Truce is a clumsy description, but I think there needs to be more dialogue and debate between genuine scientific sceptics and proponents and an end to the megaphone trench warfare of people talking past each other.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/poll-jitters-axelrod-labour-miliband
That's about as big a screaming Sell Labour! signal as you could hope to find.
Still, I enjoyed the bits about the Tories' 'personal attacks' on Miliband (!), and especially the bit about the false consciousness of the proletariat: "Ed Miliband may envy David Cameron's ratings, but his policies will be popular with voters. They just don't know it yet"
Who said '8% is the highest we've seen'
But I said 'i'll eat some cold porridge,
If you Ecos can romp home in Norwich
Or anywhere from Brighton, between'
Your praise makes you a bit of a chancer
Who's words lift me up
Like that beer mug shaped cup
You're asking me to fill with some Hansa.
So I went to have a look at it, but it turned out to be from "An Independence From Europe".
Initially she didn't believe me when I pointed it out as it "appeared" to be from UKIP.
This confusion is going to cost UKIP. But how much?
Peter Oborne makes a point about UKIP's treatment in the media, front page of DT online:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10836159/Nigel-Farage-in-car-crash-interview-as-he-faces-Ukip-racism-claims.html
Matthew Holehouse their political correspondent proves it.
"Nigel Farage was accused of being a divisive racist " did James O Brien actually accuse Mr Farage at any point in the interview of being a 'divisive racist' ?
WHO has accused Mr Farage ?
Why does the article not name an actual person who has accused Mr Farage of being racist. I think it far more likely this is classic 'third party' technique, and the Telegraph itself is calling Mr Farage a 'divisive racist'.
Employee: Would you sack me if I told you what I think of you?
Boss: I might, yes.
Employee: But you couldn't sack me if I was only thinking something about you, could you?
Boss: of course not.
Employee: OK then I think you're a ****.
I meant "there isnt much more to UKIP majoring on immigration at this election than it being the EU election", not "there isnt more to the EU than immigration"