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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I think one of the scottish papers (Daily Record?) will publish Survation's EU Parliament numbers too.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    TSE is going to miss all the fun (though I'm sure he's enjoying himself)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    1 in 4 non Labour voters could switch to Labour if they dumped Miliband, only 8% said they would be less likely to vote Labour without him according to new Omnium poll

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2630884/One-four-non-Labour-voters-say-switch-party-dumps-Ed-Miliband.html
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    "Where there are differential crime rates between nationalities, it is perfectly legitimate to point this out and to discuss it in the public sphere and I shall continue to do so."

    "I was asked if a group of Romanian men moved in next door, would you be concerned? And if you lived in London, I think you would be."

    Question:

    Would "I was asked if a group of black men moved in next door, would you be concerned? And if you lived in London, I think you would be." be acceptable? After all, there are differential crime rates between races.

    If a woman was vocal about not wanting 'men' to move into the house next door (after all, the police will happily tell you there are differential crime rates between sexes), they would be derided as a feminist harpy or worse.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    FPT @HurstLlama

    Ahoy there Mr. Llama, thanks for the welcome back! My brother's wedding went smoothly, and my mum's fine, though it was a little too hot for my liking in southern India at this time of year. Unfortunately due to time constraints, couldn't fit in any train rides but did see a few trains as we travelled around by car.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Interesting and subtle from Michael Fallon conceding that if reneg doesn't come up with the goods Conservatives could advocate withdrawal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27456187
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Interesting and subtle from Michael Fallon conceding that if reneg doesn't come up with the goods Conservatives could advocate withdrawal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27456187

    Daniel Hannan:
    "I have absolutely no doubt that the PM will secure all his stated negotiating aims. Indeed it’s clear, looking at them, that the starting point was not “What kind of relationship with the EU do we ideally want?” but “What can we be certain of securing, so that the negotiations can be declared a success?”"

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100264175/david-cameron-wants-to-stay-in-the-eu-on-something-like-the-current-terms-but-hes-our-only-chance-of-a-referendum/
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

    I would have much preferred it if they had been German.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Sunil Sounds like you had a good time in India at your brother's wedding, my parents went to my cousin's wedding outside of Delhi last year and found it fascinating
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    2-2 Arsenal equalise, finally :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    AveryLP said:

    A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

    I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

    Comrade Chancellor!

    Is it possible to be right-wing and a Europhile?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AveryLP said:

    A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

    I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

    Comrade Chancellor!

    Is it possible to be right-wing and a Europhile?
    Adolf was, Comrade Sunilsky.

    That is why we had to unite in order to defeat the fascist threat.

    P.S. Did your mother ensure you were thrown the bridal bouquet?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @Richard_Tyndall

    The tone has not changed at all. All that has changed is the way the media and the other parties are spinning what is being said. That is how effective smear campaigns work and this one is a doozy.

    In the past I've said I don't support Farage because I think he's a self-publicist and vain man with poor judgement who would make a terrible PM. I've not said that he's a racist, although he is comfortable leading a party that attracts a lot of racists.

    His latest comments "you know the difference" gets very close to a very unpleasant line. Yes, I'm sure Sam, you are right, that he was stating the difference between a German family and a bunch of Romanian men, but most people won't pick that up. It was a very clear dog whistle.

    The man may not be a racist himself, but he's comfortable with fronting a racist message.

    (as an aside, the Romanian Orthodox Church uses our family church on Saturdays - about 5 years ago there was a marked change in the community with an influx of young men who caused a lot of difficulties for the local residents)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    2-2 Arsenal equalise, finally :)

    Whoever would have thought it? Winner in last five minutes.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AveryLP said:

    A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

    I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

    Comrade Chancellor!

    Is it possible to be right-wing and a Europhile?
    Adolf was, Comrade Sunilsky.

    That is why we had to unite in order to defeat the fascist threat.

    P.S. Did your mother ensure you were thrown the bridal bouquet?

    Comrade Chancellor! Different customs in India - bride and groom were both given bouquets!
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Three goes of putting the goalposts down...we haven't seen Daves kids for a while, picture must be due shortly. Have we had Daves 48 hour British holiday were cameras are invited followed by his two weeks in some millionaires haven where cameras are banned yet?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/david-cameron-cornwall-fourth-holiday
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    FPT @HurstLlama

    Ahoy there Mr. Llama, thanks for the welcome back! My brother's wedding went smoothly, and my mum's fine, though it was a little too hot for my liking in southern India at this time of year. Unfortunately due to time constraints, couldn't fit in any train rides but did see a few trains as we travelled around by car.

    Great to see you back safe and well, Cap'n and very pleased to hear that the wedding went well and your mum is Ok.

    You really did miss some humdinger threads while you were away and not just about HS2 either. We had diverse routes, the pre-nationalisation network, the London overground, what book to buy for a train buff, the livery schemes of old railways and Mr Jessup threatening me with excommunication for expressing a soft spot for the Great Western Railway. All while you were away, which stuck me, and others, as dreadfully unfair. Never mind, as is the way with PB.com I expect we will discuss all those issues again (and again) in the future.

    Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    It's on days like these that I thank the Lord I no longer live in North London.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Should have been 3-2 there!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil Sounds like you had a good time in India at your brother's wedding, my parents went to my cousin's wedding outside of Delhi last year and found it fascinating

    I suspect Sunil had a torrid time with his mother telling all who would listen that now his brother is married she is going to concentrate all her time on finding a bride for her other son.

    Family weddings are hell unless you can find a suitable gatecrasher and unsupervised bush in the garden.

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822
    Evening all :)

    You also missed a cheap jibe from some numpty about New Zealanders.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited May 2014
    HurstLlama said:


    Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.

    Oh come on, "Ed is crap" has had a fair outing too.

    Sunil also missed Cross-over Day..... No big thing.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil Sounds like you had a good time in India at your brother's wedding, my parents went to my cousin's wedding outside of Delhi last year and found it fascinating

    Indeed - one thing I did find "odd" is the lack of marriage vows or other verbal communication between the couple themselves, at least at my brother's Hindu wedding. There was also separate "receptions" hosted by my parents and my sister-in-law's parents on the two consecutive days after the wedding.

    I also wound up attending a family neighbour's Muslim wedding "reception" too!
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    It's on days like these that I thank the Lord I no longer live in North London.

    This is, I gather, is reciprocated by North Londoners.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    compouter2 said:

    Three goes of putting the goalposts down...we haven't seen Daves kids for a while, picture must be due shortly. Have we had Daves 48 hour British holiday were cameras are invited followed by his two weeks in some millionaires haven where cameras are banned yet?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/david-cameron-cornwall-fourth-holiday

    Feeble post and predictable.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    AveryLP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil Sounds like you had a good time in India at your brother's wedding, my parents went to my cousin's wedding outside of Delhi last year and found it fascinating

    I suspect Sunil had a torrid time with his mother telling all who would listen that now his brother is married she is going to concentrate all her time on finding a bride for her other son.

    Family weddings are hell unless you can find a suitable gatecrasher and unsupervised bush in the garden.

    Er, I wish to take this opportunity to reassure the (vanishingly small!!) community of PB Ladies that yours truly is still single :)
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

    Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    One of my neighbors has gone over to the dark side (and put a UKIP poster in his window)

    This guy was solid Labour up until recently, BTW.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    MikeSmithson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It's on days like these that I thank the Lord I no longer live in North London.

    This is, I gather, reciprocated by North Londoners.

    Ha, ha. My Mum excepted. Hopefully.

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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Evening PBers.
    Did anyone catch the Eurovision debate yesterday?
    I have just watched the opening statements on a fairly poor wifi connection and I didn't see anyone that wasn't an arch federalist.
    Will try and watch the rest tomorrow when on a better connection at home
    http://www3.ebu.ch/files/live/sites/ebu/files/video/EurovisionDebate.html
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    "As Nigel Farage defends himself what would concern you more : a bunch of Romanians moving in next door or a bunch of Ukip supporters? "

    My next door neighbour has just put up a large Ukip poster. They are a very nice family, so I'd answer "the former", Does that make me a racist?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

    Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.
    That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    One of my neighbors has gone over to the dark side (and put a UKIP poster in his window)

    This guy was solid Labour up until recently, BTW.

    I passed a woman trundling along with a big (garden) UKIP sign in a wheeled shopping bag earlier. Berkshire rebelling against the Empire!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Do the Tele pay on performance? Bonus time for you if that's the case.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.

    Oh come on, "Ed is crap" has had a fair outing too.

    Sunil also missed Cross-over Day..... No big thing.
    Fair go, Mr. Mark. Does get a bit tedious though. Cap'n Doc Sunil coming back and telling us of the weddings in India and his mum's state of health is a breath of fresh air.

    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    ToryJim said:

    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

    Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.
    That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.
    No. It fits perfectly with Mr Hannan's assessment. There is no danger of failure, because the renegotiation is a pantomime (™ SeanT) effort by pro-EU politicos posing as eurosceptics.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    In addition to my general wish for UKIP to do well (more out of a wish to see a strong fourth party in UK politics than out of policy support for them), I hope they do well in the Euros, principally so it will provoke a different strategy from the media, as I confess I am getting sick to death to the self rightous paranoia from the UKIP commentariat about the dark horrors or, er, most of the media outlets disagreeing with them, a heinous crime indeed, never suffered by any other force, and signify of shady motivations in the corridors of power rather than, er, the other parties just disagreeing with them.

    Revolution is coming, LibLbCon etc etc.

    Apologies for the rudeness, which I hope is out of character, and please note that I want UKIP to do well and like Farage, but having spent too long in the past few days reading blog sections across the british media, the wailing and whinging of UKIP, though not without cause, has become so self righteous and overly intense that my symathy is being eroded.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.

    Oh come on, "Ed is crap" has had a fair outing too.

    Sunil also missed Cross-over Day..... No big thing.
    Not CrossRail Day? :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Extra time - will the Arsenal win again on penalties? :)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited May 2014
    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    8.5/10. Needed a BBC and Guardian dig for the perfect Telegraph 10.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    UKIP at 35% for Euros 11 and 15 ahead of Labour and Tories respectively according to the news.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Epochal. The defining political post of the EU elections. Squisito.

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

    Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.
    That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.
    No. It fits perfectly with Mr Hannan's assessment. There is no danger of failure, because the renegotiation is a pantomime (™ SeanT) effort by pro-EU politicos posing as eurosceptics.
    The trouble is that even if Cameron was a BOOer then UKIP and their ilk would say he didn't mean it, it's the very first chapter in Being a Fanatic for Dummies.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @compouter2

    easily explained by his love of a large pasty
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    anotherDave said:

    ToryJim said:

    Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

    Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.
    That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.
    No. It fits perfectly with Mr Hannan's assessment. There is no danger of failure, because the renegotiation is a pantomime (™ SeanT) effort by pro-EU politicos posing as eurosceptics.
    The trouble is that even if Cameron was a BOOer then UKIP and their ilk would say he didn't mean it, it's the very first chapter in Being a Fanatic for Dummies.
    Thanks very much. You're a sweetie. :-)

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited May 2014
    Sunil Indeed, a big community event, I believe a long time is spent giving greetings to the parents. Avery, my mother was the same after my cousin's do. Anyway, off to see an 'Audience with Des O'Connor' for my sins!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    He wrote a blog in the Telegraph criticising the LibLabConConspiracy against all true thinking Kippers (actually, he pointed out that some of the Kipper policies have significant support in opinion polls, but chose not to reflect on the fact that we elect representatives not delegates).

    It seems to have proved quite popular amongst the Kipper fraternity and generated lots of shares which makes his editor happy :)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Neil said:

    UKIP at 35% for Euros 11 and 15 ahead of Labour and Tories respectively according to the news.

    Wonder which pollster that is? ComRes?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

    Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala :)

    Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

    Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala :)

    Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.
    I work with someone from that part of India and I just hope to God she isn't representative of the people from there as it would be a real shame.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

    I killed* it.

    *"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.
    I will point out that agreeing with someone doesn't necessarily make either of you correct ;)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:



    *"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.

    I always preferred "nailed it".

    More gangsterish somehow
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    compouter2 said:

    Three goes of putting the goalposts down...we haven't seen Daves kids for a while, picture must be due shortly. Have we had Daves 48 hour British holiday were cameras are invited followed by his two weeks in some millionaires haven where cameras are banned yet?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/david-cameron-cornwall-fourth-holiday

    I must be missing something. That Guardian article is from August last year.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    ToryJim said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

    Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala :)

    Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.
    I work with someone from that part of India and I just hope to God she isn't representative of the people from there as it would be a real shame.
    ToryJim, don't believe I've had the pleasure!

    Kerala's election result speaks for itself (20 seats):

    12 seats for the lefty Congress and allies
    8 seats for the even leftier Communists and allies
    Nada, zip, squat for the BJP and allies.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Indian_general_election,_2014
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

    I killed* it.

    *"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.
    Thus demonstrating the truth of my view: UKIP stories sell newspapers.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Arsenal just score for 3-2 in extra time, will they win it?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

    Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala :)

    Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.
    I work with someone from that part of India and I just hope to God she isn't representative of the people from there as it would be a real shame.
    ToryJim, don't believe I've had the pleasure!

    Kerala's election result speaks for itself (20 seats):

    12 seats for the lefty Congress and allies
    8 seats for the even leftier Communists and allies
    Nada, zip, squat for the BJP and allies.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Indian_general_election,_2014
    You have at a couple of the drinks at DD's ;)

    This girl/woman has the most atrocious attitude I have ever encountered. Know it all, hectoring, bossy, and utterly insufferably rude. I just hope it isn't a regional characteristic as it would be most unfortunate.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

    I killed* it.

    *"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.
    It certainly was a feeding frenzy earlier this afternoon - a bit like the usual comments to every D'Mail article irrespective of the story, but with added Va Va Voom!
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    SeanT said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

    I killed* it.

    *"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.
    I will point out that agreeing with someone doesn't necessarily make either of you correct ;)
    Earlier on someone tweeted this about my Telegraph column. I jest not:

    "One of the best blogs of all time."

    Clearly this is total, utter, hyperbolic nonsense but it is also, nonetheless, gratifying.

    As I am sure OGH will confirm, blogging is an ephemeral and badly paid task (thank god for the thrillers and the travel journalism) but it's nice when you get a reaction.

    I know. Blogging is often about being deliberately provocative or putting a different point of view across.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    That could have been 3-3!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well it's ComRes UKIP 35 +1, LAB 24, CON 20 -2, GR 7 +2, LD 6 -2
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    ToryJim said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HurstLlama said:


    Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

    I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

    Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala :)

    Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.
    I work with someone from that part of India and I just hope to God she isn't representative of the people from there as it would be a real shame.
    ToryJim, don't believe I've had the pleasure!

    Kerala's election result speaks for itself (20 seats):

    12 seats for the lefty Congress and allies
    8 seats for the even leftier Communists and allies
    Nada, zip, squat for the BJP and allies.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Indian_general_election,_2014
    You have at a couple of the drinks at DD's ;)

    This girl/woman has the most atrocious attitude I have ever encountered. Know it all, hectoring, bossy, and utterly insufferably rude. I just hope it isn't a regional characteristic as it would be most unfortunate.
    Ooops sorry, I thought you were talking about politics!

    No, honestly I met some really nice people on my trip just concluded, especially amongst my new "in-laws".
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    LD with 6% in the euro's might mean game over for Clegg.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    If this is true, wow. And right on time.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/05/17/ukip-hold-record-11-point-lead-in-european-election/

    UKIP are... ELEVEN POINTS AHEAD??

    apparently there's also an ICM poll with them in third place!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Oh well, 1-0 3-2 to the Arsenal after extra time. Good match overall I thought!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The chances of the tories winning the euro election now are about the same as Ed Miliband losing his own seat.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    UKIP at 35% for Euros 11 and 15 ahead of Labour and Tories respectively according to the news.

    There's this on twitter: UKIP 35%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD 8%, Green 5%.

    twitter.com/BakerUKIP/status/467600533948477440
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lab 33 con 29 kipper 19 in the GE vi
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Speedy said:

    Well it's ComRes UKIP 35 +1, LAB 24, CON 20 -2, GR 7 +2, LD 6 -2

    Others are at 8 last time they were at 18ish not sure all of the others are going to get squeezed quite that much. Think the diehards are sufficient that the Tory share won't drop below what they're polling here and may be higher so either Lab or UKIP are being overestimated.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    But the Greens are the benefactors of the euro's in westminster polls again.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    Methinks pollsters are struggling this ICM is very different.

    @electionista: UK - ICM/Telegraph #EP2014 poll:

    LAB 29%
    CON 26%
    UKIP 25%
    LDEM 7%

    http://t.co/hEyYlViQ4I
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    LOL! 6% for Lib-Dems would be quite funny!
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ICM is 29/26/25/7 lab/con/UKIP/lib
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Speedy said:

    LD with 6% in the euro's might mean game over for Clegg.

    No way will he simply quit - he needs to be offered a job, probably European based, which he can't refuse but with sad misgivings, etc.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ComRes UNS

    UKIP 30 (+17)
    Lab 20 (+7)
    Con 15 (-11)
    Green 2 (nc)
    LDs 0 (-11)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    UKIP first or joint first in seats in every region except London. 2 seats in Wales.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SeanT said:

    I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh.

    Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?
    He wrote a blog in the Telegraph criticising the LibLabConConspiracy against all true thinking Kippers (actually, he pointed out that some of the Kipper policies have significant support in opinion polls, but chose not to reflect on the fact that we elect representatives not delegates).

    It seems to have proved quite popular amongst the Kipper fraternity and generated lots of shares which makes his editor happy :)
    Mr Charles, thank you and thank you to others who answered my question, including Mr. T himself.

    I did read Mr. T's piece this morning and thought it rather good, but my very limited knowledge of the Primrose Hill (borders) vernacular left me all at sea when faced with,

    "I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

    Heh."

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ICM has completely different picture, must be a record. LAB 29 -1, CON 26 +4, UKIP 25 -2, LD 7.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited May 2014
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html

    Tories in the lead with ICM General Election wisdom poll as well.

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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    ComRes only include those who are certain to vote don't forget, we need to see the normal weightings to make a direct comparison.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So UKIP are either on 35 or 25, LAB is on 29 or 24 and CON on 26 or 20, but the only agreement is the dire state of the LDs on 7 and 6.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    RodCrosby said:

    ComRes UNS

    UKIP 30 (+17)
    Lab 20 (+7)
    Con 15 (-11)
    Green 2 (nc)
    LDs 0 (-11)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    UKIP first or joint first in seats in every region except London. 2 seats in Wales.

    And a LD wipeout.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html

    Crossover in ICM's Wisdom Index too:

    ICM’s separate Wisdom Index poll put the Tories on 31.4 per cent, to Labour’s 30.7 per cent.

    The slim lead of 0.7 points follows two polls last week which showed David Cameron’s party with a two-point advantage over Labour, his first poll lead since 2012.

    The Liberal Democrats are on 15.1 per cent in the latest ICM results, ahead of the UK Independence Party on 13.4 per cent.

    Trends and changes in the Wisdom Index ratings, which ask respondents to predict the next election result, tend to be less dramatic than conventional polls, which ask individuals how they personally intend to vote.

    However, a clear pattern has emerged of declining support for Labour in recent weeks.

    The previous ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index survey, published on May 4, showed Labour’s lead cut to just one point. It has now disappeared.

    The clear trend has been confirmed by the gold standard pollster.

    Poor Basil.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Speedy said:

    So UKIP are either on 35 or 25, LAB is on 29 or 24 and CON on 26 or 20, but the only agreement is the dire state of the LDs on 7 and 6.

    It does appear that the Lib-Dems are quite possibly finished (in this election anyway)

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ICM UNS

    Lab 24 (+11)
    Con 21 (-5)
    UKIP 19 (+6)
    LD 1 (-10)
    Green 2* (nc)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    *estimate, no Green figure given
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,175
    Another week where ICM just screams wrong. Labour -12 last week was bonkers, Kippers in 3rd this week the same. It's not that one pollster is right and the others wrong, I just thing they struggle because they are trying to transpose 3 party GE votes 4 years ago into a 4 party world now and things are very very different.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Actually the changes for ICM since the last poll is LAB +5, CON -1, UKIP -1.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,396
    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    So UKIP are either on 35 or 25, LAB is on 29 or 24 and CON on 26 or 20, but the only agreement is the dire state of the LDs on 7 and 6.

    It does appear that the Lib-Dems are quite possibly finished (in this election anyway)

    I'm not convinced they won't surprise.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,175
    I said in in a previous thread. If the " party of in" loses all its MEPs then Clegg is a dead man. He might think losing over a third of councillors and all MELd isn't a resignation event but I'm confident his party will.

    Clegg's "I won't resign of we lose" sounds as convincing as Cameron's "I won't resign if Scotland secedes" or Millars "I won't resign after insulting the Commons with my non-apology". The resignee very rarely is the actual decision maker.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I think Laddies have just suspended their TriCast market...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    SeanT said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Another week where ICM just screams wrong. Labour -12 last week was bonkers, Kippers in 3rd this week the same. It's not that one pollster is right and the others wrong, I just thing they struggle because they are trying to transpose 3 party GE votes 4 years ago into a 4 party world now and things are very very different.

    Indeed. I wonder if ICM have lost the plot along the way. Their indyref polling is also a little suspect, and they admit they have problems doing the modelling.

    As you say, perhaps ICM in particular find it hard to deal with multi-party politics after decades of Lib, Lab, Con.
    Don't you mean LibLabCon?

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    edited May 2014
    Speedy said:

    Actually the changes for ICM since the last poll is LAB +5, CON -1, UKIP -1.

    That's not what the Telegraph says. Nor what UKPR says.

    Lab -1, Con +4, UKIP -2.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    ComRes tables. (Q.7, p.29)

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_18th_May_2014_5837.pdf
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    COMRES GE:

    Lab 33 (-2)
    Con 29 (0)
    LD 8 (+1)
    UKIP 19 (-1)
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Speedy said:

    So UKIP are either on 35 or 25, LAB is on 29 or 24 and CON on 26 or 20, but the only agreement is the dire state of the LDs on 7 and 6.

    Much wider range on the Ukip numbers hints at patches of concentration imo.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Could a Labour win be a disaster for Ed Miliband.

    Iirc ICM have Labour behind in GE VI right now ?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeL said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually the changes for ICM since the last poll is LAB +5, CON -1, UKIP -1.

    That's not what the Telegraph says.

    That is from ICM from the Guardian http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_may_guardian_poll.pdf
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