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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says the Greens ought to be doing better
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says the Greens ought to be doing better
The election of Caroline Lucas in 2010 was in many ways quite extraordinary. In winning a three-way marginal seat she succeeded where UKIP have so far failed. Lucas is intelligent, thoughtful and charismatic. Yet the Greens simply have not capitalised.
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To repeat myself - 6% in the last MORI poll is about as good as I can remember in my time as a member, sustainable net gains in the recent locals (including breakthroughs on big authorities like Kent, Essex and Surrey CCs) and the likelihood / possibility of gains in next years locals (particularly London) / Euros all mean that Green party supporters should be relatively happy.
As much as the rightwing press tries to push in vain these "reductions" as some sort of barnstorming Tory success, it just isn't taken up in the polling.
Quite curious. It really is the economy, stupid.
It's not good coverage, mind you.
Besides I genuinely think there's a difference between sustainable progress and surges related to protest votes / flavour of the month. I dont see any particular value in the Greens just repeating 1989 next year. I think progress needs to be sustainable to make the kind of difference they want.
I hear now that Matt Follett Green councillor for Hanover and Elm Grove has resigned triggering a byelection which will no doubt be bitterly fought with lots of ( green ) blood spilled .
Writing this I am trying to be civil. You should hear me put the case over a few drinks. Or even sober offline.
The one chance they have to have a system that can compete with air and be future proof, and they are against it.
"The Green Party remains in favour of high speed rail in principle, but any project would need to meet strict criteria."
Criteria that would never be met on any project.
They are jokes. Also witness opposition to the Severn Barrage, and their keenness for on-land wind power that devastates upland wilderness. Because those uplands are a long way from the urban metropolises that their supporters live in.
Crazy.
Being green over cutting down car use with use of Parking Zones is one thing until it starts damaging SMEs, lowering the ability of part time workers to travel to work.
Green votes were lower in less affluent suburbs of Bristol.
At present, as neil notes, the Greens are doing ok but really, that's default none-of-the-aboveism (like 1989 but less so, as there are more alternatives now). An effective leader and better PR could probably push them to 10% in the polls. They might score that highly in the Euroelections but it'll be a false dawn.
(can we stop now?)
I started writing this before I remembered the paedophiles. I suppose it would just be because we are trash?
If you are wealthy, you can reduce your carbon footprint by getting taxpayers to subsidise solar and wind installations. If you are poor, you reduce it by sitting in a cold, dark room.
http://falkvinge.net/2013/05/24/with-european-elections-one-year-out-pirate-representation-expected-to-triple/
My fear is we stay in stubbornly to show how we cant be forced out by the attacks.. maybe not giving our political class enough credit, but it does seem people with political agendas find it hard to admit it when they are wrong.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/d38.stm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onM8qVZT0bk
Don't you work for an oil company :incredibly non-Bercowesse innocent look
How about their opposition to the Severn Barrage?
How about the widespread destruction of vast areas of upland wilderness areas such as the Monadhliath Mountains for wind power?
Now they are getting sniffs of power, they need to know that compromises need to be made if there is going to be any progress.
(I actually voted green at the local elections, so I'm hardly totally opposed to them at a local level. Then again, I found the local candidates of the main parties deeply uninspiring on a number of levels. Especially the UKIP (ex-Tory) candidate).
My feeling is the Greens are more interested in ideological purity than actually appealing to a wider audience. In one sense it's admirable that they want to stick to their guns (metaphorically - I assume they are pretty anti-war officially) and not compromise their message in order to chase some mythical centre ground, instead hoping to convince people to their point of view.
On the other hand there might be an arrogant dismissal of the masses, disdaining chasing their support, of the fools who aren't all tree hugging lefty hippies (I kid, Neil). They don't want to be a large party, they aren't interested in governing even as an abstract concept like UKIP. Greens think they are better than others even more than is normal for political parties (second only to smug political wonks like myself of course)
Lucas may not have effectively built upon her victory, but the new leader is pretty crap in comparison. It's not just her grating voice, which cannot be helped, but she was easily the worst panellist in a recent QT I'd seen, and as I hadn't known several of the others, it wasn't preformed bias in a personal sense at play on my part. Really, genuinely bad, not just mundane, as a performer at least, and a leader does need those skills (see Farage, who is criticised a lot for lack of critical leadership skills in an organisational sense, but he is still a plus for his party because he is very good at other roles)
And I will say that while I do not agree with climate change deniers, who seem to think there has been a near universal conspiracy for decades for what purpose I cannot imagine, they are right that the extreme dangers were overstated for too long, meaning that since armageddon has not occurred, it is far easier to dismiss warnings now. I was at school 10 years ago and if the rainforest was being cut back as I was taught, it would be gone by now, to take one extreme example.
but it does seem people with political agendas find it hard to admit it when they are wrong.
Not just those with political agendas.
Essentially the Green agenda can only "succeed" if heat and power are made so expensive that people have to do without them.
In the main, those people will be poor and old, meaning they'll die.
But it's fine because rich people in 100 years' time will experience climate change 15 seconds later.
My first chance to comment on the events of Wednesday afternoon In Woolwich - but I won't directly.
Yesterday morning, I was enjoying breakfast at my favourite cafe and reading the Racing Post (as I'm wont to) when two young men walked in and ordered a coffee each. The owner of the aforementioned cafe leaves a copy of the Currant Bun around for the customers and the two looked at it and started discussing the events at Woolwich. The argument flowed back and forth - one possibly more extreme than the other and while most of the argument relied on factual accuracies, there were one or two things said about the number of muslims in Britain for example which revealed an interesting ignorance among the public.
Anyway, they discussed, had their coffee and left. Throughout their discussion, I heard not a word of vitriol or hatred, strong beliefs, yes, passionately-held certainly, but free of unthinking prejudice.
I was left to reflect that as long as people of good conscience are able to discuss, argue and debate without hatred, paranoia or prejudice to contaminate the discourse the extremists on all sides will inevitably fail. The extremists wish to provoke, to instill fear and doubt and to counteract reason, to create suspicion of other members of our society and to drive us apart from each other.
I'm convinced they will not succeed.
Any prices available on that? Max bet £5 if anyones brave enough to offer a price
(tim, Im not interested at EVS)
I agree. The vast majority of people are, when it comes down to it, decent, law abiding and fair. They just want to get on with their lives and do the best by the people they care for. We must never lose sight of that.
I am on the horns of a dilemma. I had a similar experience to Stodge below - but not quite the same outcome!
The best roadside bacon butty caravan in our area has always had a huge England flag. But as I approached on the day after the Woolwich events, I heard him talking to another customer about it, citing in particular a petition on the BNP website which had 50k signatures. He repeated this more than once. It is reasonable therefore to assume he is a BNP supporter - his physical build (large and round) and substantial builder's bottom would reinforce this.
The dilemma is obvious - do I sacrifice the best bacon butty, always cooked from fresh on good quality bread rolls, from a caravan with a 5 star cleanliness rating because he is obviously BNP or do I on principle avoid the place?
' There is space for an out-and-out populist left wing party to promote policies of spend more / tax more / regulate more / make more things illegal (or compulsary).'
Be patient,just wait for Ed's policies.
If you eat bacon rolls from elsewhere you will probably always be comparing them unfavourably with the BNP ones
On topic, YouGov usually sows the Greens taking votes from 2010 LibDems, which makes sense - people who felt Labour wasn't left-wing enough but eeek, the LibDems have gone to bed with Dracula. They have the same problem that UKIP used to have, though - people think they're a one-issue party. The UKIP advance has come since people decided they're a "down with all forms of current nonsense" party, which has a much broader appeal.
If the former I'd say avoid. If it's the latter he has the right to his ignorant scumbag political views, and bacon quality should be the deciding factor.
If your antipathy toward the BNP and all it stands for is that strong, then find your butty elsewhere but you won't stop him or change his ideas and it's not for you to try.
Southam Observers advice will only really work if you are the type of person who can pretend things that are actually happening (the roll tasting good) arent really because of your political persuasion
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
...which TBF does have a week-old 4, but yeah, he's being a bit - ahem - optimistic to overlook the 2 and the 2.5...
No idea which of those polls are credible, or whether you'd expect a squeeze in the general election polling that they won't suffer in the Euros.
Of course, it's terrible for heart health and cancer, but that's another matter.
The roll is the weight gainer, the bacon the health risk
Plus he would be inadvertently funding the BNP
But like Edmund I think the question is whether he's using his business to push his views or merely happened to chat to that one customer who he knew. In the former case, I'd switch, politely telling him why. In the latter case, it's his own business how he votes, I guess. The daring expedient is to tell him you're thinking of switching because you've heard him express extreme views, and see what he does. If he responds reasonably, fine. Otherwise, duck.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0zJSgHDnpw
mmmm tasty!
Jesus Nick, next you'll be telling us to take the mick out of Indian waiters while ordering a curry!
If I find out that my local shop owner visits the website of the MCB, a homophobic organisation, is that grounds to boycott his business?
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10443112.Green_city_councillor_resigns_seat/?ref=twt&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF68kds0Rnw&feature=player_embedded#action=share
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
Otherwise I'd have been apoplectic.....
Normally I don't give a tinker's cuss what people think but the BNP do test this somewhat
It didn't serve bacon sarnies though.
Sorry ! Friday evening.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
Top Guardian journo tells me Woolwich attack no worse than regular knife attacks on Muslims which are rarely reported. Remarkable viewpoint
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4940923/RAF-escorting-passenger-plane-after-mid-air-alert.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2330372/Boris-Shake-shake-shake-room-Will-Smith-son-Jaden-London-Mayor-lesson-rapping.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
West Country Travel @wctrav 23m
Road: Coming into us a prison van believed to be carrying police killer Dale Cregan from court has been involved in a collision on the #M6...
nteresting too German president +Chancellor Merkel went to 150th anniversary Social Democrats despite different party. Mature politics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU6SYzDVi98
During boom times, a certain demograph felt that they could afford to be anti-business, anti-globilisation and anti-growth in general. But that is not where we are. And with high levels of nett immigration holding down wages, there is little appetite for reducing standards-of-living in exchange for feel-good enviromental factors.
It is easy to claim that because Farage is a better salesman than Caroline Lucas, his party is doing better. That is probably not actually true. The difference is that UKIP is selling something people want to buy, while the Greens are not.