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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown
There’s some polling by YouGov for The Times which has attracted headlines such as “Voters trust Miliband less than Brown”, but analysing the figures the results aren’t as bad for Ed and Labour as it first appears
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8y6DJAeolo
Irrelevant: See the real "gold standard" of Lebo & Norpoth...
Incumbency... Incumbency... Incumbency...
Cameron will win the popular vote. Only FPTP can traduce that outcome...
* Economic watchdog cuts growth forecast for 2013 to 0.8%
* Backs George Osborne's cut programme as 'appropriate'
* Warns mortgage guarantee scheme will push up house prices
* Sounds the alarm on youth unemployment in the long-term":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2332635/UKs-growing-economy-leave-Europe-Austerity-appropriate-says-OECD-eurozone-stagnates.html
We have uncovered something remarkable, perhaps crucial...
From googling, I could find only references from immediately after his death, but nothing more recent about what the results of tests or post-mortem might have been. Does anybody know any more about it? Is it just a mad conspiracy theory?
I admire your optimism. Do you really think Brown will ever be rehabilitated?
C 30
L 34
UKIP 17
LD 10
New ideas take time to percolate down with the voters - only 20 months until a GE must be called.
Will it take two months for Miliband to write "It'll be like France under Hollande"?
That might be what you want Ed M to do, but it would be lunacy for Ed to start giving away his policies now.. you might have to wait a year for the definitive stuff .
@Morris Dancer LOL
Slightly downwards. He never quite explains what he proposes, but he tries to explain what he is and what he stands for, in clunky language. He comes a little unstuck every time.
saying "let's spend loads" just saves time.
It is Viv Nicholson on steroids.
http://www.vivnicholson.co.uk/#!viv-nicholson-book-spend-spend/c8h0
post that one on Guido then run.
All very well but a long long way (>18 months) from anything I might want to "get behind" and actually vote for.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/28/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-9/
Can I urge news organisations not to publish polls, cabinets ministers not to resign or Ed to make a major policy announcement between those times.
Thanks.
If Ed doesn't find some centre left issues to light up his potential supporters (Strong unequivocal European leadership would do it for me) he's in danger of being buried without trace.
@antifrank. I'm certain Brown will be rehabilitated. Why? Because he deserves to be and eventually history gets things right.
" I've paid my debt to society all £1.2 trillion of it guvnor"
Incidentally, the current YG shows that the proportion who'd like to see the current coalition continue after the election is down to an embarrassing 7%.
Why is it embarrassing? perhaps voters don't like coalitions.
Gordon Brown can never be rehabilitated. Facts are facts. The macroeconomic decisions of the New Labour years can not simply be erased and our debt and deficit are what they are - which is his bequeath to the nation.
And these same facts also have Ed Balls' fingerprints all over them , not just the Prime Mentalist's. This is an ongoing problem for Redward.
Ed has been leader for nearly three years. If he has not established what he stands for yet, then the thought has to be that either he does not know himself, or is incapable of expressing it coherently.
I am still forecasting a small Labour majority and Ed as PM. I think it will be a financial catastrophe to have Ed Balls in the Treasury, but I may do well out of a Labour govt personally. I would like the NHS to last a bit longer, and for my gold plated inflation linked pension to carry me closer to retirement. At that point I may emigrate.
Unfortunately for Ed he is too close to Brown for comfort. I think the ditherer tag is one he really needs to watch. That is poisonous. He also has allowed others to define him for the last 2 years by refusing to clarify (in English) what he stands for. He should look really hard at some of the blue Labour ideas and pick 2 or 3 that he approves of. Two or three comprehensible ideas would define him better than any number of "who I am" speeches.
Personally, I hope he carries on making the same mistakes as he has for the last two years. This country needs a Brown lite leader about as much as it needs membership of the euro and anything that reduces the chances of that is a good thing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22712569
That should help fill the hours of 10am and 4pm on here.
certainly have graced the cover of a Smiths single c.1985
They need to create a "mood", a personality that people can say - yes, that sounds about right. These are people I can do business with/vote for.
The Cons in opposition were always the party of small(er) govt and individual responsibility although that has been worn away at the edges.
Lab's central plank/tendency is to spend more on a larger state as they believe that way they can equalise opportunity. But if that's it until the election I don't think it is compelling especially as no one quite believes them and such a plan has been shown to be unworkable in eg. La France.
There needs to be a theme other than "we want the world to be a better place".
Since the election the poison at the heart of new Labour has been admitted in book after book by former cabinet members. I suspect we will get one from David Miliband at some point and it won't be happy reading either. This has not only tainted Brown, it has tainted Labour that put up with that nonsense and elected that man unopposed.
Miliband really needs to break away from all of that. I think he recognised that early (he is smart) which is why he did not want Balls at shadow chancellor. Alas, he was left with little choice and separation is now more difficult. He tries by apologising for various things like immigration but only seems to make the mud stick that bit more firmly.
One of his problems, pointed out at the time is that, like Cameron, he will have been leader for a long time by the election and any shiny newness will have worn off. Not much he can do about that either.
As I tory I need to hang on to these threads. I recognise the problems the tories have and this is all that gives us a chance.
What will Labour austerity look like?
Which coalition changes will be reversed?
Or will he plan a Hollande like tax and spend policy?
Those are the choices, and they will lead to internal party fights, so best get them resolved soon.
Dithering can only go on so long.
I think EdM may be a tolerable PM, certainly better than Gordon, but this is largely because expectations are so low that anything more than total incompetence would appear to be a success.
This article on the mathematics of voting systems on the plus maths website will interest Rod and others.
"Philistine. A true artist would enjoy living in the world of Kafka, why only yesterday morning I woke up as a giant beetle."
I'm glad you managed to save that. I've been one step behind the censor all morning. That was the second draft which went the way of the first. Swallowed by a giant cockroach.
You're not called Eagle are you?
So that's it, an empty vaccuous two word cliche. I don't see many people voting for it and am increasingly tempted to plunge on the tories for most seats as their mid term blues approach the nadir.
Because they aren't going to meet the demands of its supporters.
This isn't 1997 when Labour could promise anything safe in the knowledge that they would inherit a strong economy.
Instead they'll have to deal with the mess left they left behind in 2010 plus whatever Cameron and Osborne have added to it.
All with a general background of the transfer of economic power away from Europe.
At the same time the Cote d'Azur or Tahiti are places with which many would not familiar and beyond their experience (excepting of course celebs and those in the advertising profession) and may need an atlas to locate them.
Even Wikipedia is a little vague in describing the Cote d'Azur as "There is no official boundary, but it is usually considered to extend from the Italian border in the east to Saint-Tropez, Hyères, Toulon or Cassis in the west" - and there is some distance between Toulon and Saint-Tropez.
Size (Birmingham or, more usually, Wales)
Volume (swimming pools)
Height (Nelson's Column or double decker buses)
Because, my dear Roger and Nick, that is a simile that most people will understand. The 'Cote d'Azur' or an island like Fiji would be meaningless to most Britons.
Are you concerned that people might see immigrants in a much too unattractive light?
Hughes for Pulis? Can anybody explain to me why Stoke traded down?
Under Joe Chamberlain Brum was a major world city. We need to recapture that spirit not look down on it. We cannot all make our living serving you at the Ivy.
In the championship I seriouly fancy Reading at 11/1, they have the right manager, they've sorted a lot out in the 2 months he's already been there (whereas QPR and Wigan haven't started that process) they're unlikely to lose many players, there's nothing to fear in the division or from those coming up from League 1, they are financially stable.
Whilst results didn't show it, they were 100 X better at the end of the season than they were for most of it and that's before Adkins has signed anyone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10086837/The-whiff-of-suspicion-over-the-Chilcot-Inquiry-grows-stronger.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_(graphical)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2013/05/mr-men-game
We all laughed when he said Hollande would reverse the trend of austerity and lo and behold France has been given more time by the EU to get it's deficit in line.
Now this may be due to the shocking growth figures and triple double dip recession in Frogland but you know credit where it is due - the rate of paying back debt has been slowed by Mr Hollande - so 3 cheers all round for him , rEd and socialism.
The truth is that his piece of paper isn't blank at all; it's a long list of things which need to be done but which he has crossed out.
Of course you are not being a bit cocky are you ?. I wouldn't get too chipper about it, The Tories had a 28% lead in one poll before the last election and a fat lot of good it did them.
Earlier in the year they released "How Soon Is Now", whose opening lines were:
"I am the son, and the heir, of a shyness that is criminally vulgar
I am the son and heir, of nothing in particular".
Obviously that does not bother some folk. Just as they are eminently relaxed about the likes of IDS and Schappsy mangling facts and figures to create a false impression about welfare recipients.
:buggah:
That is happens to be in Polynesia and Birmingham is in the West Mids is clearly another factor weather wise...
I suspect this is a natural consequence of being in government and making decisions for a very long time and Labour have a much better excuse than the tories did given that they did reasonably well in 2010 considering. I hope this complacency continues. Compare and contrast what Blair did in the early 90s to what Miliband has done for the last 2 years. That is the difference between someone who knew elections had to be won and someone who seems to assume he is the default choice.
Taxing unearned gains such as house price inflation leads to a more efficient use of scarce resources than taxing income from work
And has less effect on incentives.
But of course I recognise you're strangely in favour of tax cuts for the biggest incomes too,along with protecting tha biggest property gains.
Be more honest if you just said that wealthy people called Charles shouldnt be liable.
Anyway, I thought you were supposedly in favour of higher council tax bands which hit people with property gains rather than on income level?
I am in favour of a property tax, but I think this should be on all residential property rather than above an arbitrary threshold. The funds released should be clearly allocated to eliminating other more damaging taxes (such as employment based taxes, fuel taxes, etc) plus those taxes (stamp duty and a lot of council tax) that overlap.
The challenge is always with people who bought houses a long time ago and now face a very significant sum in annual tax. I would tend to take the view that the tax should be set based on purchase price and then only increased every year by inflation (basically the Californian system). This would protect the widows, etc, from being forced to sell their house [and yes, tim, I would benefit short-term, but realistically I am going to move in the next 3-4 years at which point my tax would increase] but it would be a self-correcting anomaly. Additionally, it would likely reduce property values (by the present value of the future tax liability) and make BTL less attractive on the margin thereby reducing property prices for first time buyers.
Now please withdraw the rather unpleasant allegation that you made in your post, tim. I should ask you to apologise as well, but I know you won't, because you are a graceless individual, so why bother.
How sad is it when people discuss "History", indeed claim to hold a Masters in said subject, yet do not understand the context of 'The Holy Roman Empire'. If Stuart Dickson was still amongst us then the 'challenged' could be taught about Central-Europe, it's wars and it's peoples (c.f. Scania, Pomerania)....
Sadly we have leftist revisionism to "progress" to: The past is-but-a-mirage and history begins from 1997. I may regret that my line is soon to be extinct: I fear for those on 'B'-Ark that have children that will suffer from misguided consequences of left-wing bigotry....
Why, too, does the Secretary of State feel it necessary to keep denigrating the dedicated people who teach history in our schools? Where is his patriotic pride in the historical profession in our country, the best in the world?
And his evidence for this?
The recently released QS rankings of university history departments across the globe put Cambridge top, Oxford second and other British universities such as the LSE, UCL and Warwick only a little way behind.
Well, Gove wasn't talking about universities, or about the tiny number of privileged schoolchildren who go on (in large part from the best private schools) to Cambridge, Oxford or other top universities to read history. He was talking about the huge majority of the under-educated whom Professor Evans will never come across in his ivory Cambridge tower.
"Sneering at it as unattractive says more about how metropolitan lefties see the world than it does about migration watch. "
Well said. Condemned by his own words.
"Each year enough immigrants enter Britain to fill an area the size of the Côte d'Azur..."
Setting out immigrants in a positive light? Or out of touch fop toff ?
From my own experience with my children I think that there have been significant improvements in the way history is taught in school. It is more analytical and teaches transferable skills such as report writing etc. When I was at school it was simply learn and regurgitate facts, mainly about extremely dull agricultural machinery in the 18th century.
These things are a balance. You cannot have a meaningful analysis without some basic grasp of the facts and the narrative. That is Gove's point. On the other hand we would not want to lose the improvements that have come either which is the professor's point.
It depresses me that such a discussion becomes so polarised and political. Both sides are at fault here. The teaching professions are incredibly precious and unwilling to be open to other views. Gove, as a politician, tries to paint his argument in overly vivid colours getting their backs up yet further.
Some moderation of language on both sides would be a good thing. This article was not a step in that direction.
You lefties need to give up your public sector sacred cows - things can always be improved and feedback is the breakfast of champions.
When did public sector workers become so thin skinned ?
If this feat is ever to be attempted, I would prefer that we try to do so in Tahiti.
I gather their recently cancelled IT project was worth over 1 million of them!