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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Alex Massie right on Scottish Independence?
Over at the Spectator’s Coffee House, Alex Massie has written a piece about the forthcoming referendum following on from the viewing of the first part of the documentary called the Road to referendum, which can be viewed here.
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Snp should rig the fuel price upwards - would nail on a majority.
Whoa. This is a bad look for @Ed_Miliband : Labour helped its top donor make £1.65m 'tax efficient' donation to party
Optics, eh?
At the moment we're barely growing - and I suspect it will take another crisis, like the late 70s - to bring forward a leader willing to confront the cozy consensus. "Managerialism" is failing in one of its fundamental responsibilities - effective succession planning.
On topic - I suspect the vote when it comes in 2014 will be a lot closer than the current poling suggests - but still have the overwhelming impression that the SNP has not done its homework and is making it up on the hoof - which will lose them the referendum in the end,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10100943/Can-David-Cameron-explain-why-he-has-put-us-on-al-Qaedas-side.html
Vote No get nothing.
They made damn sure everyone in scotland knows it as well by opposing Devomax and further Devolution.
IIRC Assad was seen as a "good guy" when he took over from his father.
As was Saddam at one stage.
The public are waiting to be led. UKIP can more enthusiastically sell an illusion than any of the main parties, so it's hardly surprising they are attracting support from the "I Want To Believe" brigade. But the largest part of the public recognise the need for change and just want politicians to be reasonably honest with them. So far, our politicians haven't got as far as being honest with themselves.
There are no good guys at all in the Middle Eastern Isalmic world. Not a single secular, reasonable, democratic tendency. The choice is violent secular dictators (Assad, Gaddafi, Mubarak, Saddam, etc) or 'the street'. The street means Islamists (Muslim Brotherhood, Ayatollah, Taliban, Al Qaeda, etc). And all of this is overlaid with the endless Sunni / Shia civil war and retributional hatreds.
Best we leave well alone. We have no national interest with either tendency. Our interest is to avoid terrorism and protect oil flow - nothing more.
Iain Gray, Lamont, Davidson and Rennie weren't accidents. They are a direct consequence of their own party systems and executives.
Balls and little Ed's welfare triangulation is no surprise for many of those watching scottish politics as the writing was on the wall a long time ago when Lamont and others in SLAB were ordered to obfuscate or push a distinctly tory line when they were inevitably questioned on it.
A housebuilding program as happened during the 1997-2010 parliaments, I suppose.
I wonder if the rent controls will effect Tuscan villas?
I think that's a valid perspective, but there's another which rather helps the unionist side more: status quo versus uncertain change.
The power of inertia, especially when confronted by uncertainty, can be pretty strong.
Scots must wonder just how the currency issue will be resolved. If the eurozone's still in the doldrums and the UK economy is improving (at least in relative terms) that won't help the cry that "Bastard EnglishThe Union is to blame for all the problems".
What concrete changes would independence bring?
Monetary policy, according to the SNP, would be decided by London. Fiscal policy, in return for fiscal transfers (ie allowing the Scots to share British currency) would be decided in Edinburgh but with conditions laid down by the UK.
The fact is that right now we don't even know what Scottish money would be like. We know what the SNP want, but the UK, understandably, doesn't seem enthralled with the idea.
We also don't know how the EU/eurozone will be at the time of the vote, nor of how the British economy will compare.
It’s gone with the windfarms
New rules let locals block turbines
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4957208/Its-gone-with-the-windfarms.html#ixzz2VPtNcxaW
Ed turner
Labour leader backs Coalition benefits cuts...
after THREE YEARS spent rubbishing them
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4957242/Ed-turner.html
John Mills said the idea of using the shares in his TV shopping channel came from a discussion with party officials.
Labour insisted the donation had been declared in full and said Mr Mills' tax affairs were his own business.
But the Conservatives have accused Ed Miliband of hypocrisy because of his criticism of Google's tax avoidance.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22793181
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2013/06/06/97002-20130606FILWWW00374-le-taux-de-chomage-a-104.php
It certainly sounds like a winner. ;^ )
The polling on Devomax suggests that the scottish public will hardly be keen on "Vote No get nothing" even if there is still persuading to do on full Independence. Happily most tories and even some of the more deluded labourites still don't realise that painting independence as a Devolution like power shift while quibbling about which powers London keeps might not be particularly wise given that blatantly obvious desire from the scottish public for more powers and the unionist alternative of none.
Still, at least they can always paint uncertainty about the EU while Cammie gets battered senseless by his own backbenches and Farage over whether he actually wants to stay IN or OUT of Europe for his own EU referendum. Bit hard to get more uncertain than that, isn't it?
So there is no way Labour will introduce rent controls.
Could be worse for Labour, though. At least they weren't on a yacht with someone they didn't take any money from. Just imagine the headlines then.
The jobless rate grew from 10.5% in the last quarter of 2012, the official Insee statistics agency said.
The French economy went into a recession after seeing GDP fall by 0.2% in the first quarter.
President Francois Hollande has pledged to boost jobs and growth, but demand has been sapped by the eurozone crisis.
According to Eurostat, the European statistics agency, which uses a slightly different measure, the jobless rate has already reached 11%.
The figures came as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepared to meet later, when it is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%.
There has been speculation that the central bank will unveil plans to revive lending in the eurozone, especially for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs).
SMEs provide around three quarters of jobs in the eurozone.
The International Monetary Fund earlier this week warned that France needed to introduce fresh economic reforms or else risk lagging behind some of its European neighbours.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22794313
It is on the front page of UK BBC News as I write and I am writing from a climate at a nice 28C.
Of course some might wonder about Brown's other motives since this seems to be a rather direct challenge to Darling's authority in the No campaign, never mind Lamont. It certainly couldn't be that the war between the Brownites and the Blairites has merely shifted venue and that little Ed's recent conversion to a more Blairite triangulation strategy might not be going down too well with Brown and his acolytes.
If it is I think it is somewhat consistent with the points that Southam Observer has made on this thread. Those that do alright out of the current set up don't want to risk that and those that do not have little to lose and are much more open to starting again.
I suspect we will see a similar dynamic when we start to focus on an EU referendum as well. Alex Massie is right that starting afresh with the new opportunities it gives is an easier story to tell but such a story struggles when faced with the realities of the inevitable ongoing relationship that Scotland would have with rUK or the UK would have to have with its biggest trading partner.
As Ed has found to his cost life is just more complicated than a clean sheet of paper.
By raising taxes to 'eff off' levels on the rich, by lowering the retirement age, by sticking to a rigid work week, by making the state an ever larger part of the French economy, etc, etc. And, shock horror, it is causing even more unemployment. Well I'm sure nobody could see that coming!
The more socialist a country the more socialist its economic outcomes will be. (That is not a good thing).
You can keep the lefty game going for a long time, gradually ruining your private sector and letting the tentacles of the state creep into every corner. But there does come a point at which this is no longer sustainable as the private sector is too small to pay for the public sector. You then need to claw back the state and let the private sector try to compete again. If you still have a private sector.
The French car industry is a perfect example. Peugeot / Citroen is losing E200m a month. Is not allowed to close factories. Cannot compete with its competitors and looks well on the way to going under. The 'protections' afforded it by the French state have in fact killed it. Compare and contrast with Jaguar Land Rover.
Really? Is that honestly the way you think share ownership is seen, even by middle-class leftists? I think you're wrong on that, and if you are not then those middle-class leftists need a rather large reality check.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22793851
Britain’s economy is finally recovering – enjoy it while it lasts
http://www.cityam.com/article/britain-s-economy-finally-recovering-enjoy-it-while-it-lasts
Of course, every silver lining has to have a cloud....
For Devomax the answer may be quite different.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22794816#?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Remember that many middle class leftists need to view things through their own 'moral compass' and find ways of justifying their own privilege and affluence.
Which is hard to do if you own shares in a multinational that 'exploits' the third world.
Its the belief behind fairtrade products, ethical investing and those Co-op bank adverts of recent years.
Getting ready for another day of Red's u-turns.
Great comedy.
http://chapman.dailymail.co.uk/2013/06/syria-a-cabinet-divided.html
I agree that this argument creates the potential for uncertainty and doubt, but pushing the argument onto the specifics also has risks for Unionists: it can make them appear to be patronising.
Instinctively I'm a Unionist - I favour cooperation over competition, one state for the island of Britain, etc - but if I end up living in Scotland at the time of the referendum it currently looks likely that the Unionist campaign would convince me to vote for Independence, because their argument currently boils down to Scots being too stupid to run their own country.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/05/digital-economy-work-for-free
This form of Luddism seems to have a ready audience.
There s a speech later if you need to catch up on the new positions to take.
there tim, hope that helps.
However, mixed in with that there have been rapid changes of ~20 percentage points in both directions. I reckon anything is still possible from 3:2 in favour of Independence to 5:1 in favour of the Union.
Alternatively, how about Robert Hooke, Richard Whittington or William Shakespere as examples of lower middle class folk who have made it big in the prime time.
It's been the level of social mobility that has distinguished the UK over generations and prevented it from become ossified in the way that France did
Can you remind us which idiots changed the GP's out of hours care?
'The NHS is conducting a review of out-of-hours care which may lead to GPs again taking responsibility for looking after patients outside normal working hours.
Controversial changes to GPs’ contracts made under Labour in 2004 allowed them to opt out of treating patients outside normal office hours. The review could see that policy reversed.'
So put the tin foil hat down, my boy
Confirmation in the Visa Expenditure Index for May that the British Retail Consortium's report of growth in retail sales was more reliable than the earlier CBI reports of declines.
Headline findings:
• Month-on-month consumer spending increases in May (+0.5%), following a reduction in April (-2.3%).
• Year-on-year spending increased for the third successive month in May: growth of +1.3%, up from +0.6% in April, and the strongest annual increase since October 2010.
• Underlying spending continued to improve: 3m/3m growth rate at +0.7% (April:
+1.2%).
• Modest increase in Face-to-Face and Mail Order/Telephone Order spending over the year (+1.3% and +1.3%, respectively).
• Online spending decreased year-on-year, albeit marginally (-0.2%).
George, you are a genius.
dsmitheconomics
New car registrations in May up 11% on year earlier, says SMMT. Sales to private buyers up 20.9%. More private sales in May than pre-crisis.
No wonder rEd is flip flopping over to Con economic policies.
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/342559007367634945/photo/1
frasernelson Fraser Nelson 20m
@pollytoynbee Here's a graph that makes my point.... pic.twitter.com/5hvjaNmL6b
Were you caught in an A&E queue yesterday?
"George, you are a genius." - hardly. Not unless you expected the economy never to recover.
As ever mediocre Osborne has done little to reform and assist the economy and is now seeking credit for other people's efforts.
However, though he makes an interesting and quite powerful point, I still think that in the final analysis it will come down to Hope vs Fear, and that fear willl win. Maybe it could have been different if the SNP had not been so pig-headed, evasive and petulant when people asked perfectly reasonable and serious questions about the currency, the EU and NATO. There are more difficult questions to come - about pensions, cross-border fund management, and no doubt many other aspects of splitting the union. All those questions are perfectly answerable, but they do have be addressed seriously, not belittled in a cloud of Salmondesque bluster as unionist scaremongering. I just think the SNP have made it too easy for the unionist side to exploit the uncertaintly.
why then is the tax code bigger than it was in 2010 ? why have the banks still been left unreformed - RBS being the clanger - since 2008 ? why aren't we suffering heat stroke from the bonfire of regulation ?
Osborne has been not been a reforming CoE any recovery is down to other's efforts not his. He's mediocre and the sooner he goes the faster the UK might get someone who sees what needs to be done.
After posturing for three years Red u-turns on every cut he has opposed.
Pure comedy.
That is particularly sick, given Miliband's flip-flop on the Libyan intervention. I wonder why he was so passionately against it at first?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-12659391
The late husband of Labour MP Ann Clwyd was kept on a trolley in the emergency department of Wales' largest hospital for 27 hours, she has revealed."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22794026
I expect the usual suspects will rush to denounce this callous treatment and the incompetent government presiding over such failings.....
The GP doctors contract was changed so that they did not have to work unsocial hours and were paid more money.
The reason given was that there was a shortage of GPs, especially in run down areas, and it was hard to recruit.
This is probably the consequence of women now making up the majority of doctors newly qualifying. I suggest that women doctors are even less prepared than men to work unsocial hours and make home visits at night to run down areas.
WTF is a thirty-five year trend? I can see at least five cycles in that graph (which, incidently, would appear to coincide with the natural economic-cycle).
I still hope that the "Yes" campaign pull-it-off: They need to emphasise the 'Hope' element and not resort the Anglo-bashing to achieve this. Getting rid of the "Fat One" would be a positive step forward.
As for the criticism that the Unionists treat Nats as too immature to govern themselves well, sadly, this is proven by the interweb pixel-queens. The inability to hold a coherant argument with their opponents; to reflect how their "demands" may be offensive to others; their insignificance to the wider UK (whilst condemning others [c.f. UKIP] in similar terms) all show that they need to be let go from Mother-England's apron-strings.
Economically, at least in the short-term, the effect of independence should be negligable. It is how a future Scots government handles the demographic/geographic* consequences of independence that will determine the sensibility of the 2014 outcome.
* There are no guarentees that the commonly-funded/tariffed systems of SAR, Royal-Mail, National-Grid, Road-and-Rail will last more than (at best) ten-years. The population-dense areas of England, Wales and The Province** have no moral compulsion to subsidise the far-reaches of Scotland (not least as these areas hoard 'their'*** oil).
** Wales and The Province are economic basket-cases but the logic of a common-tariif system within the common Sterling-Area (outwith an independent Scotland) makes political, if not economical, sense.
*** Their old-resources should be defined by geography. Expecting rUK to fund other services within these area (via the common-tariff) is rank hypocracy ignorance...!
[Liam Byrne] said Labour would introduce a cap on "structural spending" - such as housing benefit and disability allowances - to deal with the long-term pressures on welfare spending.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22785282
In my view there would an overwhelming vote for Scottish independence amongst the wider electorate.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22785282
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22794313
ie hypothetically, the Queen might as well have a free bus pass as she is a million to use it anyway
Apologies if I have overlooked something or misunderstood.