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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga
David Cameron is a good media performer and remains his party’s biggest asset. There has been a lot of focus on the suggestion that despite this it’d be better for his party if he avoids the televised debates because of the platform it will give Ed Miliband. I know the theory, but this does not stack up for me and seem that convincing. What else could Conservative strategists be worried about?
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You do need to find them therefore I think it is genuine interest.
My $0.02 is that Dave should debate anywhere with anyone on anything as he can be quite good at it. Very good at it, in fact.
And the corollary of his headline: It’ll be tricky for Ed coming under scrutiny from 5 different sides.
Again, Dave gives us a masterclass in political skill, courage and integrity.
I expect that the Conservatives' concern in a multi-sided debate is that David Cameron has to spend all his time attacking Ed Miliband, but will be attacked by others who he won't have the time to respond to - in particular, he will be attacked on immigration by Nigel Farage. But he'd be fine in a seven-sided debate because the attacks on him would be cumulatively too incoherent and the attack he fears most would be greatly diluted in impact - which is why the Conservatives wanted more participants.
I'm sure that the Conservatives' main calculation, like Phileas T Barnum, is never give a sucker (Ed Miliband) an even break. Which is why they want to avoid a head to head, which is the ultimate in even breaks.
They will be very reluctant to forgive him for that and it will adversely affect the coverage/spin that they provide. Probably still worth it though.
A YouGov survey found more Londoners think Ms Lucas, the MP for Brighton Pavilion, is “best suited to represent the Greens” in the live television event.
However, a majority of Londoners who expressed an opinion say Ms Bennett should go ahead, despite being less skilled.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/poll-caroline-lucas-better-at-explaining-green-party-policies-than-leader-natalie-bennett-10095036.html
London-based.
I, for one, am sick of this country being used as a base by these people.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets?marketId=924.22898024&gaZone=Main&bseId=27367116&bsmSt=1427760000000&bsUUID=0b5a012ef32cf81a6f1cae1298a67628c9e44012&gaMod=multipickoutrightmarkets&eventId=27367116&bssId=36224&action=addSelection&bsmId=924.22898024&modules=betslip&isSP=false&xsrftoken=ad3b76d0-c321-11e4-9cd9-ecf4bbd12618&bsGroup=27367116
Moores at 5-6 NOT to be England coach for 1st Ashes test.
Get your £2 on.
Its not just about Cameron avoiding defending his own record to me but also about turning the tables on Miliband. Henry rightly points out if Cameron appears he will be the one defending his record. If he doesn't turn up that mantle falls to Miliband who instead of being primarily on the front foot against Cameron would find himself far more on the backfoot against 5 parties who all want to relieve him of voters. He would become primary focus of the debates.
In 2010 in all areas aside from the South outside London, Northern Ireland and the Midlands, the dominant party was Labour and as a result there is plenty to gain for one or more of the other parties if they best Miliband and not only would he have to defend his manifesto and his record in opposition but its likely he would still have to defend his party's failure with all that that entails 5 years before. Now it may be he comes through it OK but it will not be the positive that besting Cameron would provide. I suspect rather than providing impetus to his campaign at best it would keep it on an even keel and at worst punch a decent size hole in it.
And has Dave ever claimed that he was more honest than other politicians? As I recall it was Tony Blair who claimed to be a "pretty straight kinda guy"
("Little guy" in this context means the Hugh Grants of this world.)
I wish Salmond would challenge ed to a one to one debate in Scotland btw. I wonder what brave ed would say to that?
"London-based Sheik Hani Al-Siba'i is Director of London's Al-Maqreze Centre for Historical Studies Hani Sibai.
He has previously claimed that ‘anyone who is not a Muslim is a criminal’ and is seen as a controversial figure who has often made offensive comments in interviews.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera TV on July 8, 2005, the Sheik caused great outrage by saying that the London bombings were a victory: ‘If Al-Qaeda indeed carried out this act [of the bombings], it is a great victory for it. It rubbed the noses of the world's eight most powerful countries in the mud.’
Why is he in this country?
Really interesting response to the female journalist by the way. Is it too much to hope that change is possible?
Its happening and we are watching
Anyone who has to talk about their honesty rather than simply demonstrate it by their actions is not to be trusted, in my experience.
(The Graun is of course still blaming her for Britain's decline, etc)
A great interview!
I'm a big fan of Lebanese women and this one is typical. So fresh so funny and they say what they think. Their only downside is too much plastic surgery and tatooed lip liner which is silly
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2986066/Lebanese-TV-host-Rima-Karaki-stands-sexist-Islamist-scholar.html
@TelePolitics: Ed Balls says the Tories want to axe the Foreign Office - and then says they don't http://t.co/i5DdoRC1bI
Still don't see the link if I'm honest.
Incidentally, pub conversation last night, in Essex, was universally (4-5 people) hostile to her; more so that Ed.
By now we were supposed to be bombarded by a post Leveson vengeful Murdoch with evil Ed stories as we run up to the election. Tumbleweed.
I suspect stories of a vengeful media will turn out to be just as hollow for Cameron. The story is the story and not much else.
"Could be worse, could have signed a pledge."
On the nail!!
1) the final result matched the pre debate polling, so the debates made little real impact.
2) Not much in the campaign had much impact either!
3) the polls now are probably about right and the betting too optomistic for the blues once more.
Don't mention that the Tories plans are basically to shrink the state to the size it was in 2002....Everybody all together now CUTTTSSSS TAKING US BACK TO WIGAN PIER DAYS...insert photo of poverty from 1930's.
Of course it was in the Grauniad.
The argument was that Clegg was able to present himself as moderate / the "new new" face of change thereby sucking away votes that Cameron might otherwise have won. Secondly, each of the debates absorbed a week of media time (3 days run up, 3 days post date wrap up) and therefore made it much harder for the Tories to get out their message of change.
Of course, it didn't help that Cameron underperformed in the first one.
After demanding debates last time the media then did nothing but belittle them - always looking for the silly picture or grasping onto the odd comment. The whole point of the debates is for the media to pick holes in the performances . And that word, 'performances', tells us what the debates are all about and what the media want out of them. The only meaningful thing to come out of them last time, 'Cleggasm' turned out to be bogus.
Our politicians do not spring preformed onto the national stage like say in the USA, but are already well known and have been 'performing' in Parliament for many years. The debates simply cloud issues and the 4-way debate originally put forward was certainly biased.
I hope Cameron can keep turning down the debates - the 7 a side early debate he has offered is the minimum we could expect to show willing - because they are bad for politics and if he gets a bad press it will just show he actually believes in doing the right thing irrespective.
Kind of reminds me of the first presidential moment in 2012. Romney and his supporters were so convinced that his performance had put everything back in play, but when it came down to voting, the polls and forecasts were pretty much bang on. It was the fundamentals that decided the race, not one 90 minute debate.
The matter of principle can be swiftly dealt with; Cameron once thought the debates a necessity. As a matter of honour he should stand by that position.
The political calculation point is more difficult and I accept everyone can make their own judgement and mine is in the minority. But I don't think either the 7-handed format or the one-on-one poses a significant risk to Cameron (with one slight caveat in the latter case), and I think the Tories are underestimating the negative effect not participating in the debates will have on their relationship with, and portrayal by, the media, that could be toxic for their campaign. Bluntly being seen to be intimidated by Ed Miliband does not look good.
I doubt the 7-hander will go the way Henry describes. There may be a certain amount of government bashing, but in the main the parties will be seeking to differentiate themselves from the others. For some, like the Greens, Plaid and the SNP, the best way to maintain or grow their support is to create a positive pitch which appeals to the left; almost any time spent criticising Government, except as a counterpoint for their own policies, is time wasted. The Lib Dems will be constrained in terms of what they can say, and in any event are in no position to influence the outcome. Ukip will be Cameron's biggest fear, but seem to be weakening as a force in this election. He has his defence lines against Labour attacks well worked out.
Similarly a one-to-one against Miliband should not worry Cameron. The leader ratings don't lie - he is a more credible leader. Yes, the low expectations of Miliband may mean that avoiding complete destruction will be perceived as a victory; but Cameron should be confident of his ability to outbox Miliband and should have the ammunition to do so comfortably. The one caveat is I suspect Cameron would prefer not to give Miliband any platform that does not have Clegg on it; Cameron needs the Lib Dems to recover some more and peel back some of those soft reds. Clegg being prematurely demoted from the premier league makes that less likely.
I don't know what our LD GE bet is :-)
Let me search gmail
I don't have an email about the bet. It must be somewhere on the site...
It would be around May last year. You were in to me for £20 after the Wythenshaw by election (UKIP £20@11/2).. you said you or your Dad would cough up at Dirty Dicks, but you couldn't make it and I didn't ask him for it.
Shortly afterwards I said stick it on the LDs to get under 10%.. there were two bets, one of £15 and one of a fiver I think, and the bets were something like under 10% and under 8%
So shortly after the Dirty Dicks bash of May last year if that helps
@TelePolitics: Ed Balls: Labour would not guarantee defence spending at 2pc of GDP http://t.co/nPoOj4Km6x
I think, and I could be wrong, that it was evens at under 10%, and 4-1 for under 8% (or something like that). And I'd guess it was £15 on the under 10%, and £5 on the under 8%.
Beats betting for a living!
"Who Really Runs This country? - 75% of laws made in Brussels"... the burning Union Jack photo.. bit last year
BIG on immigration one side with pics of anti EU & immigration headlines from the Mail and Express
"Only a vote for UKIP is a vote to end mass uncontrolled immigration"!
Graph showing the Havering Euro results
UKIP 43% Con 25% Lab 15%
"UKIP can win in Hornchurch & Upminster"
I would have preferred
(a) to be the candidate!
(b) to see more about the closing of local hospitals to make way for housing
(c) A photo of Farage would have helped I think... he seems popular
It seems a bit serious would be my criticism, but naturally agree with the points made
Only UKIP and Cons have leafleted and there will be weekly UKIP street canvassing from now on.. I know a lot of people who are going to vote UKIP so 8/1?? Maybe
https://twitter.com/PenguinUKBooks/status/574918013968859136
https://twitter.com/PenguinUKBooks/status/574923336565850112
Conservatives do the same thing with the Greens/Labour (See debate tactics part 1)
Mostly the leaders are just rehearsed to avoid gaffes or hostages to fortune. Indeed was this not the case with "tens of thousands" as an immigration target?
More worryingly the same meeting was attended by Andy Slaughter MP and Shadow Justice Minister.
A Shadow Justice Minister who thinks it appropriate to attend a meeting organised by a supporter of Al Qaeda. Well, well.
So how am I - a working woman, my daughter, my son - who is gay - supposed to feel about having as our Justice Minister in a few weeks a man so singularly lacking in judgment that he thinks it right to attend such a meeting hosted by such a person. How are Jews supposed to feel? How is anyone who does not want our civilization, our country, our lives to be ruined by such barbarians supposed to feel?
"Cromwell's army was very effective."
Mainly because the opposition was led by interbred, over privileged fops.
#lessonsfromhistory
I can see the argument - why take the risk? - but I don't think the Tories are sufficiently assured of winning this to think they don't need to take risks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11458322/Why-Im-predicting-a-Conservative-minority-government-after-the-next-General-Election.html
Every army needs to have a few bewigged and confused mascots.The more sensible ones keep them to a minimum though.
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
A Tory minority government will need a new leader.
Speaking of, where is @Neil? Haven't seen him around in these parts recently
UKIP took a German claim and adjusted it although this ''was not based on any empirical research, but an estimate assisted by “senior political experience” within its ranks.'
'' a research paper undertaken by the independent House of Commons library found just 9 per cent of statutory instruments passed in the UK Parliament between 1998-2005 were implementing European legislation.''
''The fact the UKIP figure was based on a six-year old German analysis, which in itself had flaws, is enough to suggest this claim is a step too far.''
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/is-most-of-the-uks-law-made-in-brussels/1498
In other news the affect of the EU laws was just “6.3 per cent according to the Swedish parliament, 12 per cent according to the Finnish parliament, and between 12 and 19 percent according to the Lithuanian parliament”.
It looks like the central plank of UKIP is bogus.
Yup, but it still winds you up into a frothing mess of barely concealed rage, so it is worth the hit. you supercilious solicitor.
Eddie Spheroids at his best.