Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Next Prime Minister betting

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Next Prime Minister betting

Boris & Theresa May now 12/1 joint 2nd favourites to be next PM. EdM 8/11 favourite. http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K See pic.twitter.com/YiclNEMU6b

Read the full story here


Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    The Duke -- his aged grand-sire -- bore
    The shame till he could bear no more.
    He rallied his declining powers,
    Summoned the youth to Brackley Towers,
    And bitterly addressed him thus--
    "Sir! you have disappointed us!
    We had intended you to be
    The next Prime Minister but three:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    I take it you've not backed Gove?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited June 2013
    I think Hague is way short at 16s. Way short

    I can't envisage any circumstances where he would be PM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Boris is a ridiculous bet. Yvette Cooper is far more likely to be next PM over Boris.

    Reasoning: If Dave stays PM the 2015 GE he won't be going anywhere. Ed will be replaced, most likely by Yvette Cooper. I think their odds are the wrong way round.

    Will be Ed though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Who is the 'under a bus' PM btw - Clegg or Osborne ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited June 2013
    taffys said:

    I think Hague is way short at 16s. Way short

    I can't envisage any circumstances where he would be PM again.

    He's the Dave under a bus stop gap leader.

    He doesn't want to be leader again though.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621

    I take it you've not backed Gove?

    So we can't have a 'Gove Resurrection'?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    He wasn't very good last time

    LOL major clanger...still think he's rubbish value at 16s
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is the 'under a bus' PM btw - Clegg or Osborne ?

    Hague.

    But I have Clegg at 100/1 as next PM.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Could T May shorten if the terrorist and general bad'un Qatada is SENT HOME ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Actually thinking about May's price it shows what a remarkable (politically) speaking Home Secretary she has been. It is normally the death knell for a career.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2013
    FPT:

    After all, we do still seem to be missing -

    1) An apology for Lucinda Creighton

    2) Tables from the last Better Together poll

    1) On what planet am I responsible for the BBC's reporting?

    - Have you complained to the BBC, since it seems to upset you so?

    2) If you think YouGov are in breach of the BPC - take it up with Anthony Wells - not me.

    - Have you complained to Anthony Wells?

    Meanwhile, we are none the wiser about the identity of the SNP's 'secret Santa' Polling Company, that may, or may not, be a member of the BPC - do you know?

    I think we should be told.....don't you?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chukka at 25s ? Has someone forgotten a zero ?

    Also why would anyone want to tie their money up until 2020 ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    The odds on Muddlebland are good.

    It is just waiting 'til 2025 that puts me off.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is the 'under a bus' PM btw - Clegg or Osborne ?

    My guess is Hague. The Tories would appoint a temporary leader.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited June 2013
    If Dave did fall under a bus then what about the bus driver for PM?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I used to think that William Hague was automatically the "under a bus" option, but given that George Osborne does not look as though he would contest a leadership election at present, this is not automatic and George Osborne at 33/1 looks a very respectable bet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    If Dave did fall under a bus then what about the bus driver for PM?

    The assassin never gets the crown.

    Well unless you're Gordon Brown.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If Dave did fall under a bus then what about the bus driver for PM?

    Someone that has had a real job for PM ? Will never catch on.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    antifrank said:

    I used to think that William Hague was automatically the "under a bus" option, but given that George Osborne does not look as though he would contest a leadership election at present, this is not automatic and George Osborne at 33/1 looks a very respectable bet.

    I would doubt Hague would want to fight a General Election as leader, so if Cameron were to fall under the bus too close to May 2015 (or May 2020), then it is quite possible Hague would decline and the chalice would be passed to Osborne.

    If there were sufficient time to elect a successor as Leader then I would expect Hague to accept.

    So I agree Osborne is value at 33/1.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    I take it you've not backed Gove?

    Specially for my fellow Depeche fans:

    Strange Gove
    Strange highs and strange lows
    Strange Gove
    That's how my Gove goes
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    antifrank said:

    I used to think that William Hague was automatically the "under a bus" option, but given that George Osborne does not look as though he would contest a leadership election at present, this is not automatic and George Osborne at 33/1 looks a very respectable bet.

    The Tory party is mad but not that mad*

    Ozzy Osbourne has a better chance.

    *ok we're the party that elected IDS.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Isn't the real value here probably still Ed Miliband ? Even at 8-11..
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the real value here probably still Ed Miliband ? Even at 8-11..

    Is your argument that Miliband is so short he would emerge unscathed if run over by a bus?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the real value here probably still Ed Miliband ? Even at 8-11..

    You deny the word of the ARSE ?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Isn't the real value here probably still Ed Miliband ? Even at 8-11..

    Possibly given Labour most seats is about 4-9 right now.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AveryLP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Isn't the real value here probably still Ed Miliband ? Even at 8-11..

    Is your argument that Miliband is so short he would emerge unscathed if run over by a bus?

    I doubt rEd would do anything so bold as cross a road - he'd set off but then u-turn half way.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Surely the worst odds on that list are for D Millibland. While Boris isn't an MP he's still a senior politician and a route to the top still seems plausible. Ed's senior brother is retired from British politics and not even in the country. The idea of him being next PM is totally implausible.

    Kind of shows as ridiculous the "two brothers" quote of Mr Thompson (no relation). David shouldn't be on that list at all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    This strikes me, as much as anything else, as a bet on the result of the next election. If Labour wins that is it. If the tories win who is going to be Cameron's successor?

    I think May looks very good value in that scenario. Hague would only be a stand in and Osborne is not leader material. She is head and shoulders above the rest as leader and has an extremely rounded CV now.

    So I think, although there is some risk of the curse of the Home Office, that a bet on Ms May is effectively a 12/1 bet on the tories winning the next election. I like those odds.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    antifrank said:

    I used to think that William Hague was automatically the "under a bus" option, but given that George Osborne does not look as though he would contest a leadership election at present, this is not automatic and George Osborne at 33/1 looks a very respectable bet.

    The Tory party is mad but not that mad*

    Ozzy Osbourne has a better chance.

    *ok we're the party that elected IDS.

    IDS never lost a GE as leader :)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Not sure how it can really be as likely to be Boris or May. Boris can only be next PM if the Tories win in 2015 and then he leads the party. May can be if the Tories win and then she leads or if she takes control pre-election. Given a leadership challenge is unlikely but not out of the question, she's in a better spot than BoJo.
  • FPT
    I'll be your long haired Gover from Liverpool
    Little Jimmy Osmond
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    David Miliband at 33/1. That doesn't seem very generous. He is not an MP, he is not even in the country, if his brother messes up will he really be in the shake to replace him? Even in the Labour party that seems a bit incestuous.

    I would have put his odds closer to 330/1.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "IDS never lost a GE as leader :)"

    But he never fought a GE.

    (Note - this has been a riposte in the style of Sunil.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    If Dave did fall under a bus then what about the bus driver for PM?

    Bus driver? What bus driver??

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-rkpgchJOA
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    "IDS never lost a GE as leader :)"

    But he never fought a GE.

    But the point still stands! (of course he was never allowed to fight one - replacement Howard didn't exactly do much in 2005).
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "But the point still stands!"

    True. And Sir Peter Tapsell never lost a general election either. He was a cracking leader.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    "But the point still stands!"

    True. And Sir Peter Tapsell never lost a general election either. He was a cracking leader.

    Seriously, the Tories in their haste replaced IDS with.... another loser.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited June 2013

    FPT
    I'll be your long haired Gover from Liverpool
    Little Jimmy Osmond

    B-52s:

    The Gove Shack is a little old place where
    We can get together
    Gove Shack baby!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Seriously, the Tories in their haste replaced IDS with.... another loser."

    Obviously they should have picked Clarke in 2003, but other than him I'm struggling to think of any other alternative that would have done much better than Howard. IDS would certainly have done considerably worse.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The Gove Shack is a little little place where
    We can get together
    Gove Shack baby!

    Aerosmith

    Gove in an elevator,
    livin' it up while I'm goin' down

    (Mindbleach...)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited June 2013
    This really is political correctness gone mad:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2343318/37-years-Village-cricketers-banned-practising-hard-balls-decades-playing-field-health-safety-fears.html

    I haven't checked but I would bet any amount of money that a woman is behind this.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Putin's right, Cameron's wrong.
  • That Ole Devil Called Gove - Billie Holiday
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773

    FPT
    I'll be your long haired Gover from Liverpool
    Little Jimmy Osmond

    B-52s:

    The Gove Shack is a little old place where
    We can get together
    Gove Shack baby!

    "When routine bites hard
    And ambitions are low
    And resentment rides high
    But emotions won't grow
    And we're changing our ways
    Taking different roads

    Gove, Gove will tear us apart... Again
    Gove, Gove will tear us apart....Again"

    Joy division!
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Strictly speaking this is health and safety gone mad.

    In addition I suspect if looked into this isn't the hse itself but some overzealous council wonk deciding it could be a health and safety issue.
    Andy_JS said:

    This really is political correctness gone mad:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2343318/37-years-Village-cricketers-banned-practising-hard-balls-decades-playing-field-health-safety-fears.html

    I haven't checked but I would bet any amount of money that a woman is behind this.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    antifrank said:

    Spammed you as a test. :eek:

    Apols to @Aunti, but why can we not flag OGH when he is trolling? Does Junior not believe in the rule-of-'hic' ...?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    This really is political correctness gone mad:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2343318/37-years-Village-cricketers-banned-practising-hard-balls-decades-playing-field-health-safety-fears.html

    I haven't checked but I would bet any amount of money that a woman is behind this.

    This appears to be a major dispute involving the Bowls Club, Football Club, Cricket Club and Parish Council.

    According to the Parish Council, the officers of the Cricket Club have been very naughty boys:

    Take for example the following alleged offences contained in the draft minutes of the Parish Council for June 2013:

    Use of mechanical equipment - this is not used before 10.00am on a Sunday. The Council informed that the roller was used on Sunday at 9.20am without authority.

    The collection of balls hit off the field onto the bowling greens is also an issue:

    The Cricket Club requested that the Bowls Club combination be changed so that Mr Gale did not know it; only the 2 Captains would know the number and would then be responsible for retrieving the ball.

    The Council undertook to pass on this this request to the Bowls Club. The Council has noted its concern at the manner in which members of the Cricket Club have undertaken negotiations with the Council: The Council has ruled that:

    Offensive and aggressive behaviour is unacceptable and bad manners will not be allowed and The Chair outlined that the Council understood that it was important to have a Cricket Club in Bacton. However abusive and intransigent behaviour and a resolve to make everything difficult and to bad mouth the Council and Clerk in the village is not acceptable.

    Clearly there is a crisis in Bacton which needs urgent resolution.

    Perhaps antifrank should offer his services as arbitrator.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Very interesting comment from someone on the CoffeeHouse earlier:

    Unfortunately, not quite so straightforward as Fraser Nelson paints it, though as an ex OFSTED inspector with plenty of experience of scrutinising both outstanding and failing schools I'm convinced we should be uncompromisingly setting ourselves to transforming the outcomes of state education to ensure that the best is the target for all, and absolutely no excuses...

    1. For all the excellent things Gove is doing, he made a huge and disastrous concession to the heads' union when he agreed not to insist on no-notice inspections. That really was selling the pass. It almost made me throw up to see him saying schools should get the chance to "put their best face forward". Absolutely not. It enables the poor and the complacent, underachieving schools to do things like drafting in star teachers from other schools, have staff up all night faking records, send disruptive and failing pupils off on bogus field trips, so the school gets a better outcome. It's also essential to break the link between complaints about inspections and judgements about inspection contractor firms. It's in contractor firms' interest to ensure they get as few complaints as possible. That can only mean contractors choose those inspectors who never get complaints. Any inspector who leads a team that fails a school will face a barrage of complaints. I have had that happen to me each time I led an inspection of a school that was failed. Especially where they were schools that were previously deemed to be doing well. I still remember the very senior OFSTED inspector responsible for fielding the complaints ringing me after he'd gone through the paperwork and saying, "Thank you for having the courage to do what you did.". That tells you so much

    2. Changing the pupil culture of schools, particularly where there is a history of a dominant anti-school culture, even if there is a brand new academy being set up, is one of the most difficult tasks, and one that most often defeats the staff. But Michael Wilshaw with Mossbourne Academy in the heart of the most downtrodden bits of Hackney, and on the ashes of a disastrously failing comprehensive showed how it can be done. That Academy now scores way above national average exam results and gets disproportionate numbers of pupils into Oxbridge. It's one of Gove's best ever decisions to make him head of OFSTED. He is and will remain under attack from the teacher unions and the local authorities. Gove and the government have got to give him unflinching support and keep publicising to parents what he achieved.

    3. Because of the vested interest campaigns against "privatised" and "for profit" state schools-- which unfortunately the Tories have gone along with, there's a failure to look very hard at why we don't do more to create branded schools controlled by one nationwide management group, so that we get the quality and uniformity of delivery we get with an M&S, a Waterstone's or even a Deloitte's.It's like we still have an unthinking belief that the old style single-owner individual cornershop is our model for school delivery. Why should it be? I would like to see Wilshaw or someone with as high an achievement record as him as the overall Director of a chain of nationwide secondary schools. The old guild-financed schools are something of an historical model, like the Haberdashers' schools. And some of the Academy groups, like Ark could be developed into such a model. If they were given financial incentives for showing that they deliver uniform quality and achievement across their brand group.

    4. Boris rightly stresses that part of the reason we have such high immigration levels is that the EU migrant workforce is so much more work-oriented and capable than the London-born and educated kids being turned out of our schools. I would like to see him being the figurehead and public advocate for a Londonwide school rebrand group of all the schools not in the top sixty percent. Maybe led by someone like Seb Coe or one of the Olympic delivery executives who proved their delivery track record. Look at what was achieved in a short time with the Olympics volunteers. It can be done.

    5. More union reform is also needed to help take off the brakes being applied by the teacher unions. Of course that applies to other fields vital to the UK's future. We do need to introduce as soon as possible compulsory voting by all union members for their executives and leaders as well as for strikes.

    6. Last not least, we need to unshackle schools from local authorities for good. The good schools don't need them, and they have a vested interest in covering up for or propping up the bad ones. The money needs to go to the schools, and the roles and duties of the governors need to be toughened up, including greater civil liability for tolerating failure. The introduction of nationwide high quality groups led by people like Wilshaw and with governors of equivalent calibre to those of our best company directors would be one way forward.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/the-economic-case-for-sacking-bad-teachers/
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    @SeanT
    "the first archaeological Knights Templar Meso-American whodunit Dan-Brown-send-up international drug-cartel Mafia splatter-fest of a cult thriller"
    It's a distinction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Alanbrooke - Indeed, Putin may take realpolitik to a brutal extreme, but he has his head screwed on. Interesting too to see talks with the Taliban will start in Afghanistan soon, hopefully that will bring an end to that campaign at last too!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    AveryLP/TSE - Osborne's leadership hopes rest on winning in 2015, if he does he is the natural heir to Cameron, as Brown was to Blair. If the Tories lose it is hard to see past Boris!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    HYUFD said:

    AveryLP/TSE - Osborne's leadership hopes rest on winning in 2015, if he does he is the natural heir to Cameron

    Hahahahahahhaahahaaa!!!

    Classic stuff.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2013
    Oh Gove, forgive me...:

    I'm blind on YouGov,
    That EU-bints on my mind!
    Labour shills educating;
    Yet Gove still holds the line!

    :shill:
    Eds are amazing,
    Ozzie but a fool.
    Chris Huhne is...,
    Bugger criminal!
    :/shill:

    I'm blind on YouGov,
    OGH says it's true!
    Vince and his puppet,
    Will show that Gove is through!

    Education reform;
    Teachers will complain!
    Why listen to consumers:
    Only Gove to blame!

    :shill:
    Dodgy party-funding,
    Lord Rennard too!
    Portsmouth has a problem;
    But condemn Gove too!
    :/shill:

    I'm blind on Cameron,
    My 150-1 bet won't be true!
    I'm blind on Gove,
    An eejit through-and-through...!

    Still spinning a story,
    Giving some a little vim.
    Noone really listens,
    Cos' Gove is all but "bling"!

    :shill:
    I am a 'Liberal',
    Challenged yet not true.
    I blame that Tory,
    A threaded Gove too!

    I'm blind on YouGov,
    Education is a such waste.
    Gove is wasting money,
    As Ed Balls has more taste....
    :/shill:

    In YouGov....


    Apologies to a decent song....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Senator Claire McCaskill has become the first prominent endorsement for Hillary in 2016
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MickPork - Why so funny? The 2015 election will largely rest on the economy and if the Tories win Osborne, as Chancellor, can claim much of the credit, if they lose he is clearly toast!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    HYUFD said:

    MickPork - Why so funny?

    Because Osborne is a toxic liability who Cammie kept away from the cameras as much as possible during the 2010 election campaign and will struggle to do the same in 2015. Not to mention the many amusing master strategies he has helped dream up like banging on about Europe and immigration to kill the kipper vote as well as his omnishambles. Osborne will be claiming no more of the 'credit' than he did in 2010.

    The point about Blair and Brown is that there was years of internecine internal war because Brown had support in the labout party and was seen as the natural successor. Where is this Osborne faction in the tory party lining up to back him as a future leader? They are notable by their almost complete absence outside Osborne's head.

    Hammond and Gove are deep inside the chumocracy and would be far more likely to be seen as continuity candidates who would try and keep the detoxification and modernisation agenda of Cammie's going.

    Boris would almost certainly do so as well but he has the advantage of not being seen as a chumocracy candidate close to Cammie. Theresa May also does not have that disadvantage.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @AveryLP I refer the gentleman to Lord Denning's judgment in Miller v Jackson, which is a classic of English writing:

    http://jay.law.ou.edu/faculty/Tabb/Remedies/Miller v Jackson.pdf
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2013
    In terms of probabilities the one that's wrong there is Osborne. If Cameron makes it past the next election he's in with a good chance. The Chancellor job is a great place to grant favours and destroy enemies. Remember the lesson from Gordon Brown: You don't have to be good - you just have to be better than any of your remaining competitors.

    Looking at Wikipedia, these are the recent occasions when a party has changed Prime Ministers while still in office:
    Eden -> MacMillan: Former Chancellor
    MacMillan -> Douglas-Home: Not Chancellor
    Wilson -> Callaghan: Former Chancellor
    Thatcher -> Major: Chancellor
    Blair -> Brown: Chancellor

    So four out of five were previous chancellors, and the last two out of five went straight from the Chancellor job to the PM job.

    The hitch is that if he wins, except as the caretaker suggested by Antifrank, it's as the successor to a successful Cameron, so it doesn't pay out for ages.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    DavidL said:

    David Miliband at 33/1. That doesn't seem very generous. He is not an MP, he is not even in the country, if his brother messes up will he really be in the shake to replace him? Even in the Labour party that seems a bit incestuous.

    I would have put his odds closer to 330/1.

    Indeed. Sheer audacity by Shadsy - both David and Boris are ludicrously short given neither of them are MPs.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Brown became leader because quite clearly had support for doing so inside the labour party.
    Hence him being unopposed when he became leader after Blair stepped down.

    If Cammie won, and even if he decided to step down after serving just one full term, the chances of the tory party letting Osborne become leader uncontested are slim to say the least. Particularly with Europe and IN/OUT likely to dominate any future leadership contest.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    tim said:

    @edmundintokyo.

    If you ignore all available polling on Osborne he has a chance, if the proverbial bus wipes out the rest of the cabinet.

    That's the beauty of it, the Chancellor _is_ the proverbial bus.

    In any case, parties in government don't seem to take much notice of the available polling. What matters is who has the best political machine, or who gets to take over the controls of the existing one.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2013
    Osborne seems to be doing a good job ;

    " New car sales across Europe fell to their lowest level in two decades for May as the deepening recession hurt demand.

    Registrations dropped 5.9% to 1.04m in May, compared to a year ago, according to the industry body, the ACEA.

    This is the lowest level for May since 1993 when new registrations plunged below one million.

    The UK was the only country to report a rise in sales, with sales up 11%. "
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mick_Pork said:

    Where is this Osborne faction in the tory party lining up to back him as a future leader? They are notable by their almost complete absence outside Osborne's head.

    To be fair to Osborne, he is self-aware enough to know that he is never going to be leader. After all, he didn't even run when Howard stepped down, but cut a deal with Cameron instead.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Charles said:

    To be fair to Osborne, he is self-aware enough to know that he is never going to be leader. After all, he didn't even run when Howard stepped down, but cut a deal with Cameron instead.

    Remind you of anyone?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Bobajob said:

    DavidL said:

    David Miliband at 33/1. That doesn't seem very generous. He is not an MP, he is not even in the country, if his brother messes up will he really be in the shake to replace him? Even in the Labour party that seems a bit incestuous.

    I would have put his odds closer to 330/1.

    Indeed. Sheer audacity by Shadsy - both David and Boris are ludicrously short given neither of them are MPs.
    Presumably Boris's odds are something of a hedge given that's where the weight of cash will be from the non-sophisticated punters.

    With David M he's just trying to lure the unwary by making it look like he is a credible candidate
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited June 2013
    I've been calculating a few more constituency results based on the local elections (although I know that Lewis Baston has already done something similar).

    Labour targets where they failed to win the most votes include Waveney, Morecambe, Stroud, Gloucester, Worcester, Great Yarmouth, Dover, South Ribble, Stafford, Watford, Bristol North West, Rugby, Burton, Tamworth, Derbyshire South, Staffordshire Moorlands, Bristol West:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E#gid=0
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2013

    Charles said:

    To be fair to Osborne, he is self-aware enough to know that he is never going to be leader. After all, he didn't even run when Howard stepped down, but cut a deal with Cameron instead.

    Remind you of anyone?
    Osborne didn't brood over it. (In fact IIRC he persuaded Cameron to run). Brown thought that Blair had gone back on an agreement to let him have a clear run. He brooded and soured.

    (Incidentally, I think you are basing your view of the strength of the Treasury political machine on a sample of one. Brown was an anomaly)

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Charles said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Where is this Osborne faction in the tory party lining up to back him as a future leader? They are notable by their almost complete absence outside Osborne's head.

    To be fair to Osborne, he is self-aware enough to know that he is never going to be leader.
    Is he though? Should there be a contest I can't see him not at least testing the water and sounding out tory MPs. Once reality had sunk in he would likely start trying to do another deal and it's far from certain he would get many takers next time around. None of the current runners for next tory leader look particularly 'new' or 'fresh' so anchoring themselves to someone like Osborne would not seem to have that much appeal unless it was from someone who wanted a very 'steady as she goes' continuity candidacy.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Evening all :)

    Was Osborne a serious leadership contender in 2005? My recollection is that Michael Howard supported David Cameron and basically endorsed him against David Davis. I'm not sure there were many other contenders at that time.

    On-topic, you are betting on three possibilities - a sudden unexpected resignation, an election defeat or a planned handover. The former can't ever be ruled out but is the least likely of the three contingencies. An election defeat means in all probablilty the Labour leader taking over so you're betting on being Ed Miliband rather than anyone else.

    If Cameron wins, how long does he serve? He's already been Conservative leader for ten years - if he serves a full second term as PM, he will pretty much outlast Margaret Thatcher which would be unusual. The experience of Thatcher and Blair suggests that Cameron might see 8-10 years as optimum so a handover in 2017-18 (perhaps after a "successful" EU referendum) but to whom?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    To be fair to Osborne, he is self-aware enough to know that he is never going to be leader. After all, he didn't even run when Howard stepped down, but cut a deal with Cameron instead.

    Remind you of anyone?
    Brown thought that Blair had gone back on an agreement to let him have a clear run.
    As did a big enough chunk of the PLP for it to become an internal war that still rumbles on in places. Only fervent Blairites think the blame was all Brown's and only fervent Brownites think it was all on Blair.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    stodge said:

    The experience of Thatcher and Blair suggests that Cameron might see 8-10 years as optimum so a handover in 2017-18 (perhaps after a "successful" EU referendum) but to whom?

    Thatcher and Blair had three elections as PM before succession became a reality. Being leader of the opposition is very different to being PM and there is a marked reluctance to give up that job willingly.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Mick_Pork said:

    stodge said:

    The experience of Thatcher and Blair suggests that Cameron might see 8-10 years as optimum so a handover in 2017-18 (perhaps after a "successful" EU referendum) but to whom?

    Thatcher and Blair had three elections as PM before succession became a reality. Being leader of the opposition is very different to being PM and there is a marked reluctance to give up that job willingly.

    Thatcher was Opposition leader for four years and Blair LOTO for three so there is a similarity there. By 2015, Cameron will have been Tory leader for ten years and PM for five and by 2020 for fifteen years and a decade respectively.

    I just don't see him wanting that kind of tenure in office. I suspect Blair would have preferred to stand down in 2005 and Thatcher in 1989. It's all too easy for leaders to overstay and Cameron will be aware of this.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    stodge said:

    . I suspect Blair would have preferred to stand down in 2005 and Thatcher in 1989.

    I suspect the exact opposite. Both had to be virtually forced out of office though in different ways.

    As for whether Cammie would like to continue being PM, I'd agree he doesn't seem to have the 'hunger' for the job that some have had, but that's not quite the same as being willing to step down after just one term. He's only ever been a coalition PM as well so that also has to be taken into account.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Phew, thank the lord I missed all that schools chat. I may have facepalmed myself to death.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Carola said:

    Phew, thank the lord I missed all that schools chat. I may have facepalmed myself to death.

    Your timing is excellent, I think you're going to love nighthawks at 9pm
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Phew, thank the lord I missed all that schools chat. I may have facepalmed myself to death.

    Your timing is excellent, I think you're going to love nighthawks at 9pm
    Whu-hoo! Last thing I want after my pisstaking slacker nearly 12 hour day is serious work-related guff.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    You forgot Go... veminger:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfhLwi6fvcc
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    @carola

    James Bond does feature in tonight's nighthawks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Nighthawks is now open
This discussion has been closed.