politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LabourList “poll” shows Burnham well ahead with Kendall in strong 2nd place
As the Labour Party leadership campaign gathers pace, we are gradually building a picture of what the contest will look like. Right now, it seems that there are three serious candidates that can win, with a maximum of four likely to take part.
I think Kendall coming second in this 'poll' does show how she's managed to get more coverage than Cooper despite a lesser profile beforehand (although despite a senior position and previous government post Cooper has been pretty invisible for years), which as the newcomer was probably important. Not everyone in Labour will like what they have heard of her, and it may not be enough for her to actually win, but from a position of being a non-entity she's making an impact.
I'm starting to think Kendall really might win this.
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
As the Labour leadership is determined by AV this does suggest whichever of Kendal or Cooper get through to the final 2 with Burnham could beat him, picking up the preferences of the other 2 womens supporters
With this in mind, I expect [Kendall] to start attacking the Conservatives with gusto in the coming weeks.
Should be fun. If she's built up a solid impression as a credible candidate, she might even manage that without losing the Tory comments about her being the most suitable for Labour.
MikeL We need to see some polling of the general public as a whole to see who is really most 'electable', all would be better than Ed in all likelihood but no clear evidence yet Kendal is well ahead of Burnham in appeal to swing voters though clearly she has had a good start
Perhaps instead of standing down, Carmichael (or the Lib Dems, though I doubt they have the funds) could consider repaying the £1.4 million which has just been flushed away on investigating his actions.
The most notable thing about the contest so far is that there is no left-wing candidate. That may explain the large none of the above vote.
The poll (such as it is) doesn't support that contention, because respondents were asked to suggest alternatives, and the alternatives they suggested weren't particularly left-wing (figure given is number of votes out of 2274 respondents):
Ed Miliband(!) 61 Keir Starmer 51 Dan Jarvis 49 Tristram Hunt 40 John McDonnell 33 Lisa Nandy 31
plus a few bits'n'bobs.
So, not particularly left-wing, and no one alternative candidate attracting significant support.
Perhaps instead of standing down, Carmichael (or the Lib Dems, though I doubt they have the funds) could consider repaying the £1.4 million which has just been flushed away on investigating his actions.
What?! Why the hell would it cost that much to investigate a leak?!
Good on Liz Kendall, she's the only candidate saying anything about the future direction of the party and seems to be of the centre ground where elections are won.
The question for her now is can the party stop taking to themselves and dare to go with a leader that appeals to more than the Labour core vote, to those that voted Tory and even UKIP in the past two elections? Over to you, Labour MPs...
The most notable thing about the contest so far is that there is no left-wing candidate. That may explain the large none of the above vote.
The poll (such as it is) doesn't support that contention, because respondents were asked to suggest alternatives, and the alternatives they suggested weren't particularly left-wing (figure given is number of votes out of 2274 respondents):
Ed Miliband(!) 61 Keir Starmer 51 Dan Jarvis 49 Tristram Hunt 40 John McDonnell 33 Lisa Nandy 31
plus a few bits'n'bobs.
So, not particularly left-wing, and no one alternative candidate attracting significant support.
It's looking like 3 runners.
Interesting; though Ed is well to the left of all three probables.
Perhaps instead of standing down, Carmichael (or the Lib Dems, though I doubt they have the funds) could consider repaying the £1.4 million which has just been flushed away on investigating his actions.
What?! Why the hell would it cost that much to investigate a leak?!
I'd like to know too. But staff time is costable and builds up. And I suspect the FDA and other Civil Service unions may have brought in some pretty high powered lawyers in response to Mr Carmichael's apparent blaming it on their members. If I'd been one of the civil servants in the SO going straight to the FDA would be the first thing I would do.
Good on Liz Kendall, she's the only candidate saying anything about the future direction of the party and seems to be of the centre ground where elections are won.
The question for her now is can the party stop taking to themselves and dare to go with a leader that appeals to more than the Labour core vote, to those that voted Tory and even UKIP in the past two elections? Over to you, Labour MPs...
The actual Labour leadership election will be greatly distorted anyway compared to Labour voters. I think a voodoo poll has enough relevance to be considered whereas it wouldn't nationally - nationally most voters are not politicos.
Perhaps instead of standing down, Carmichael (or the Lib Dems, though I doubt they have the funds) could consider repaying the £1.4 million which has just been flushed away on investigating his actions.
What?! Why the hell would it cost that much to investigate a leak?!
Everyone knows the purpose of a leak enquiry is to do very little: everyone knows what has happened anyway, they just need a period for the press to move on before announcing it. For further information please consult The Bed of Nails Yes Minister episode.
One of the stories of contest so far is that Yvette's campaign hasn't got going at all and that's reflected in this survey. I'm very surprised by this, however it's a marathon not a sprint. I expect her to bag at least one big union nomination which should help and also change how some people think of her. As the hustings and media interviews increase I expect Cooper's sure-footedness and experience will impress members. Yvette needs to finish ahead of Kendall and mop up the preferences of those not wanting Burnham and also wanting a female leader. However it is not a given right now that Yvette will get more first preferences than Liz. Ballot papers don't go out until mid-August. There's still a long, long way to go.
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
That's a good analysis. I won't venture a prediction, and I've not decided myself yet. But it's fair to say that anecdotally, I know a lot of people who like Andy but are open to the idea of a fresh face. I think Liz, having established that rather well, does need to show that she's got some distinctive Labour views as well.
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
What mechanism do you see for him being removed as an MP? Or is he to be smitten, Old Testament style, by a bolt of lightning for profaning the SNP's leader?
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
As we don't have the recall powers and he has no government position any more, what exactly is anybody going to be able to do about it other than wait 5 years and vote him out. If he honestly thought there was a chance of losing his position as an MP you think he would have admitted anything?
Perhaps instead of standing down, Carmichael (or the Lib Dems, though I doubt they have the funds) could consider repaying the £1.4 million which has just been flushed away on investigating his actions.
What?! Why the hell would it cost that much to investigate a leak?!
They found the leak which makes it one of the most cost-effective leak enquires of all time.
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
In case of by-election, unionists will rally around the most obvious focal candidate to beat the SNP, who command a near-unanimous Scottish voice at Westminster on less than half the Scottish vote.
I'm starting to think Kendall really might win this.
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
The one thing that Liz has in common with Ed is ruthless ambition; I think she can do this.
She has set out a distinctive moderniser stall, but she also has made a number of pro-union statements. It will be an interesting campaign and she is certainly going down well in certain quarters. She had the lobby fawning over her last week.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
I'm starting to think Kendall really might win this.
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
The one thing that Liz has in common with Ed is ruthless ambition; I think she can do this.
She has set out a distinctive moderniser stall, but she also has made a number of pro-union statements. It will be an interesting campaign and she is certainly going down well in certain quarters. She had the lobby fawning over her last week.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
It's a long time to keep the momentum up. Burnham just needs to bog Kendall down on some issue or other and he's basically home.
I'm starting to think Kendall really might win this.
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
The one thing that Liz has in common with Ed is ruthless ambition; I think she can do this.
She has set out a distinctive moderniser stall, but she also has made a number of pro-union statements. It will be an interesting campaign and she is certainly going down well in certain quarters. She had the lobby fawning over her last week.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
It's a long time to keep the momentum up. Burnham just needs to bog Kendall down on some issue or other and he's basically home.
Liz has plenty of energy! and she is a confident media performer. I suspect the campaign will benefit her more than Burnham, who has a lot more history to defend.
The Hustings on BBC 2 on 17 June in Nuneaton will be interesting indeed.
acarmichael @acarmichael · 3h3 hours ago Getting a surprise lesson in Scottish scandals today, thanks to my apparent Twitter resemblance to @acarmichaelmp
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
What mechanism do you see for him being removed as an MP? Or is he to be smitten, Old Testament style, by a bolt of lightning for profaning the SNP's leader?
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
I think the MSM should be quizzing Rennie and even Clegg about what they knew when. As Rennie was straight on this in the media etc, my suspicion is that Rennie was in the loop, so should be considering his position.
Spoken to a few fellow Labourites and I think we are all in agreement that a fresh face with new ideas, is needed. Early days, but I can see Kendall, if she does well over the next few months, coming through the field.
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
Even if he had the whip suspended, there is no way either that (1) the LibDems will want a by-election in any seat in the UK in this Parliament; or (2) that any loyal party will want a by-election in a Scottish seat currently held by a loyalist. He cannot be compelled to go, unless he convicted of an offence and imprisoned for a period exceeding a year or, if the 2015 Act comes into force, recalled. Neither looks like a plausible scenario, no matter how much "pressure" he may come under.
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
Even if he had the whip suspended, there is no way either that (1) the LibDems will want a by-election in any seat in the UK in this Parliament; or (2) that any loyal party will want a by-election in a Scottish seat currently held by a loyalist. He cannot be compelled to go, unless he convicted of an offence and imprisoned for a period exceeding a year or, if the 2015 Act comes into force, recalled. Neither looks like a plausible scenario, no matter how much "pressure" he may come under.
It disturbs me how much I agree with @LIAMT sometimes...
NP Cameron ran as continuity Blair and beat Davis and Brown, perhaps Kendal could run as continuity Cameron and beat Burnham and a Tory rightwinger in 2020?
Blair was also arguably continuity Major for his first term (without the EU splits)
"I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020"
Indeed. A number of PBers have advanced the view in the past that Shetland would never support the SNP as they supposedly did not regard themselves as Scottish.
Perhaps they should recognise that as just another unionist myth-some reports even suggest that the SNP actually won in Shetland, and that it was Orkney that saved Carmichael, though his majority was slashed to 800 or so.
Many of his constituents will be very disappointed in him in a seat where personal respect for the MP is more important than in many another place, and if he hangs on he will have to endure a much diminished respect from the islanders.
I wonder how often those of us who are members of a particular Party hear or become aware of something one of the senior members of the party has done and simply wonder why we bother being members at all.
As an LD, I'm having one of those moments now. Carmichael has behaved beyond stupidity - I would ask what he was thinking of but I can't determine any rational thought process at work here. As to whether it had any impact, I doubt it frankly but that's not the point.
He has disrespected the Party and Nicola Sturgeon and the French ambassador and not necessarily in that order. After the antics of Chris Huhne, Mike Hancock and David Laws I wonder if a clear out of the formerly great and good is long overdue. Whether or not the LDs become a politically significant force again is one question but that we should do led by figures of personal and political integrity is one that is for me a no-brainer.
We cannot afford blunders of this magnitude again - I know it's not what will happen but Carmichael should resign and publicly apologise - if the cost of that is the SNP gaining another seat and wiping out the LDs in Scotland that's a heavy price and one which integrity demands the party pays for the misdemeanour of one man.
I would therefore expect two weeks of intense pressure; two months of mild pressure; six month of sporadic news stories... and that will be about it.
I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020.
The problem is May 2016 where the O&S MSPs are facing a tough battle to retain their seats, this situation lingering on is not going to make their task any easier. The SNP are likely to play hardball and will ensure that SLID pay a heavy price if action isn't taken.
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
Even if he had the whip suspended, there is no way either that (1) the LibDems will want a by-election in any seat in the UK in this Parliament; or (2) that any loyal party will want a by-election in a Scottish seat currently held by a loyalist. He cannot be compelled to go, unless he convicted of an offence and imprisoned for a period exceeding a year or, if the 2015 Act comes into force, recalled. Neither looks like a plausible scenario, no matter how much "pressure" he may come under.
The SNP will milk this for all its worth, as it confirms everyones worse fears about Westminster MPs, their advisers and the MSM. If the LibDems choose to leave him in place, they need to be prepared for further loses in May 2016. Rennie needs to be held to account as he was the first to react to the media, so it looks like he was briefed.
JPJ2 The SNP won 37% in Orkney, one of their lowest scores in Scotland, their was already some evidence of tactical voting, eg the Tory vote fell slightly, but at 8.9% in 3rd still more to squeeze. In fact only 32% in Orkney voted for Independence, again 13% lower than Scotland as a whole (even lower than the 33% in the Borders) and the lowest in Scotland, Shetland was only a little higher at 36%
Would the SNP win a by-election in Orkney & Shetland?
I think Carmichael was saved by tactical voting - 41% v 38%. I think as GE2015 has already played out the tactical vote would melt away and leave the seat on a knife edge. SLID would also need a new candidate or perhaps use 1 of their 2 MSPs. I bet on SNP stealing this seat at GE2015, if this £1.4 million report had come out before the election he would have lost.
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
What mechanism do you see for him being removed as an MP? Or is he to be smitten, Old Testament style, by a bolt of lightning for profaning the SNP's leader?
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
I think the MSM should be quizzing Rennie and even Clegg about what they knew when. As Rennie was straight on this in the media etc, my suspicion is that Rennie was in the loop, so should be considering his position.
I forgot he was a lawyer, who was the Labour politician who had to withdraw his Law society membership before they flung him out in disgrace?
I think that Rennie et al are hoping this is played out by Tuesday. Notable that they are dropping this on a similar timescale to the original smear attempt - on the eve of a holiday weekend.
Did this report really cost £1.4 million? Where was that reported?
I think he is toast particularly because he a year or so back hinted at a retirement from politics. Why would he want to stay under these certain circumstances of being generally disregarded because of his conduct?
I wonder how often those of us who are members of a particular Party hear or become aware of something one of the senior members of the party has done and simply wonder why we bother being members at all.
As an LD, I'm having one of those moments now. Carmichael has behaved beyond stupidity - I would ask what he was thinking of but I can't determine any rational thought process at work here. As to whether it had any impact, I doubt it frankly but that's not the point.
snip
Does this mean than until today you had not considered Carmichael as being the likely culprit in this? Despite his grubby little fingerprints being all over it?
I wonder how often those of us who are members of a particular Party hear or become aware of something one of the senior members of the party has done and simply wonder why we bother being members at all.
As an LD, I'm having one of those moments now. Carmichael has behaved beyond stupidity - I would ask what he was thinking of but I can't determine any rational thought process at work here. As to whether it had any impact, I doubt it frankly but that's not the point.
He has disrespected the Party and Nicola Sturgeon and the French ambassador and not necessarily in that order. After the antics of Chris Huhne, Mike Hancock and David Laws I wonder if a clear out of the formerly great and good is long overdue. Whether or not the LDs become a politically significant force again is one question but that we should do led by figures of personal and political integrity is one that is for me a no-brainer.
We cannot afford blunders of this magnitude again - I know it's not what will happen but Carmichael should resign and publicly apologise - if the cost of that is the SNP gaining another seat and wiping out the LDs in Scotland that's a heavy price and one which integrity demands the party pays for the misdemeanour of one man.
One MP doesn't taint the whole party and bad behaviour doesn't mean they mustresign - MPs do shocking things and carry on - here's an excellent example...
The MP who triggered the cash-for-honours probe has apologised to his family for cheating on his pregnant wife with two teenage girls.
Angus MacNeil described the tryst, just weeks before his wife gave birth, as "wrong and stupid". The Scottish National Party MP shot to national prominence after making the police complaint that launched the cash-for-honours probe at Westminster.
But his reputation as a "sleazebuster" was in tatters last night after it emerged that he drunkenly kissed and fondled the girls in a hotel room.
I would therefore expect two weeks of intense pressure; two months of mild pressure; six month of sporadic news stories... and that will be about it.
I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020.
The problem is May 2016 where the O&S MSPs are facing a tough battle to retain their seats, this situation lingering on is not going to make their task any easier. The SNP are likely to play hardball and will ensure that SLID pay a heavy price if action isn't taken.
This really is the core of things.
If the Liberals don't at least withdraw the whip then I cannot see any way for Scott and McArthur to hang on to their seats. At least leaving him as an Independent will avoid further association with him (it almost worked with Joyce where the later transgressions saw the press label him as an Independent more often than ex-Labour MP).
Having said that, I'm not sure that even taking action will be enough, perhaps they will hold Orkney but as things stand they are not looking good for List seats never mind Constituencies.
A big factor in the Carmichael case is that at present there isn't a party leader. There's nobody to put pressure on him.
What should happen is that both Tim Farron and Norman Lamb be pressed for their view. It could be quite revealing.
Well he has to answer to Willie Rennie (presumably) who himself must have serious concerns over the upcoming Holyrood election. The Libs are holed below the waterline and he could make a public statement in lieu of the National party doing so.
Scotland's deputy first minister appeared to have salvaged her political career after she apologised today for making significant errors of judgment in her defence of a twice-convicted fraudster.
Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs she was sorry for lobbying a court to give a constituent, Abdul Rauf, a non-custodial sentence after he admitted an £80,000 benefits fraud, and for calling his frauds, which included stealing £60,000 in pensions and benefit cheques more than 15 years ago, "mistakes".
Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.
The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.
According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.
"The SNP won 37% in Orkney, one of their lowest scores in Scotland, their was already some evidence of tactical voting, eg the Tory vote fell slightly, but at 8.9% in 3rd still more to squeeze. In fact only 32% in Orkney voted for Independence, again 13% lower than Scotland as a whole (even lower than the 33% in the Borders) and the lowest in Scotland, Shetland was only a little higher at 36% "
So what? A number of people foolishly claimed that in the event of Scotland voting "Yes" , Shetland would have opted out of Scotland. An opinion poll, with over 80% denying that, proved the view that Shetland did not consider itself Scottish, was indeed the unionist myth to which I referred..
Incidentally, UKIP experienced the only fall in its vote in the whole of Britain in Orkney and Shetland in GE2015 cp. GE2010.
If the Liberals don't at least withdraw the whip then I cannot see any way for Scott and McArthur to hang on to their seats. At least leaving him as an Independent will avoid further association with him (it almost worked with Joyce where the later transgressions saw the press label him as an Independent more often than ex-Labour MP).
Having said that, I'm not sure that even taking action will be enough, perhaps they will hold Orkney but as things stand they are not looking good for List seats never mind Constituencies.
Orkney is a lot more marginal than Shetland at Holyrood: Tavish has a 17% majority (and a 35% lead over the SNP), compared to Liam McArthur's 10%.
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
What mechanism do you see for him being removed as an MP? Or is he to be smitten, Old Testament style, by a bolt of lightning for profaning the SNP's leader?
I think Carmichael is about to come under pressure from various angles. The Law Society could well take an interest. He will be getting a well deserved MSM roasting over his conduct. The LibDems need to be seen to be taking action at a party level given their stance against WM dirty tactics. If SLID are serious about holding on to their O&S MSPs they need to regain trust.
I think the MSM should be quizzing Rennie and even Clegg about what they knew when. As Rennie was straight on this in the media etc, my suspicion is that Rennie was in the loop, so should be considering his position.
I forgot he was a lawyer, who was the Labour politician who had to withdraw his Law society membership before they flung him out in disgrace?
I think that Rennie et al are hoping this is played out by Tuesday. Notable that they are dropping this on a similar timescale to the original smear attempt - on the eve of a holiday weekend.
I was thinking that too re the legal issue but on checking the case I have in mind involved the Faculty of Advocates in 2010 and the lawyer in question had been making dodgy expenses claims at Westminster.
I forgot he was a lawyer, who was the Labour politician who had to withdraw his Law society membership before they flung him out in disgrace?
I think that Rennie et al are hoping this is played out by Tuesday. Notable that they are dropping this on a similar timescale to the original smear attempt - on the eve of a holiday weekend.
I was thinking that too re the legal issue but on checking the case I have in mind involved the Faculty of Advocates in 2010 and the lawyer in question had been making dodgy expenses claims at Westminster.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
Also, if there are a significant number of people who hand over £3 for a vote Labour will also benefit from the emotional buy-in that accrues from being part of a successful campaign, which is more helpful to them than if these people were merely passive observers.
I think if you are going to attack Salmond and Sturgeon you should do rather better than cite the Scottish apendage of the Daily Telegraph, whose Scottish editor admitted in his "book" that he supressed stories to attack the NATS!
In other words find a newspaper to quote not the Scottish Torygraph which, unlike its London edition, doesn't even put up much of a pretence of being anything other than a propaganda sheet - and a very unsuccessful one at that!
If the Liberals don't at least withdraw the whip then I cannot see any way for Scott and McArthur to hang on to their seats. At least leaving him as an Independent will avoid further association with him (it almost worked with Joyce where the later transgressions saw the press label him as an Independent more often than ex-Labour MP).
Having said that, I'm not sure that even taking action will be enough, perhaps they will hold Orkney but as things stand they are not looking good for List seats never mind Constituencies.
Orkney is a lot more marginal than Shetland at Holyrood: Tavish has a 17% majority (and a 35% lead over the SNP), compared to Liam McArthur's 10%.
Interesting. There were reports - how I am not sure - that Shetland was won by the SNP but Mr Carmichael's personal vote got him over the line in Orkney. The two groups have about the same population IIRC.
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
"Accidentally"?
If only life was so easy for every whistleblower/leaker who wanted to send something to the Press! I imagine Carmichael will be wondering why he didn't think of that.
I think if you are going to attack Salmond and Sturgeon you should do rather better than cite the Scottish apendage of the Daily Telegraph, whose Scottish editor admitted in his "book" that he supressed stories to attack the NATS!
In other words find a newspaper to quote not the Scottish Torygraph which, unlike its London edition, doesn't even put up much of a pretence of being anything other than a propaganda sheet - and a very unsuccessful one at that!
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
It's total bollocks, but it gives an idea of their ambition. After Ramadi and Palmyra, they occupy half of Iraq and much of Syria. They really are a state, and they really are a clear and present danger to the West. And they expand, globally.
I've just realised that this could be Obama's legacy. What he is mainly remembered for. Not Obamacare or the stupid Peace Prize, but the President who let ISIS rise to power. Not good.
Obama is totally useless at foreign policy. I think he's embarassing. And that's a mere 'european' saying that.
Yanks are much harder on this sort of stuff. So God knows what the average American thinks of him.
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
Pointing out how hypocritical the pious Nats are when their cupboards are jam packed with skeletons ( and taxpayer funded tartan trews ) - isn't stooping low - well not as low as fondling teenagers whilst your wife is pregnant.
And the rather obvious difference between the Carmichael case and the then Deputy First Minister is that she has since stood successfully for election and been returned overwhelmingly, has been elected First Minister and judged the most successful poltician across the UK in the recent election which returned 56 MPs out of a possible 59 for her party.
When will his constituents get the chance to judge Mr Carmichael?
You should stand for election to see how many people appreciate your obviously unblemished life and higher than thou standards.
In the meantime Carmichael should submit himself to the judgement of his constituents who he deliberately lied to as he attempted to smear the First Minister.
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
Pointing out how hypocritical the pious Nats are when their cupboards are jam packed with skeletons ( and taxpayer funded tartan trews ) - isn't stooping low - well not as low as fondling teenagers whilst your wife is pregnant.
I'm not an SNP member and I think he should resign as an MP immediately, he deliberately lied during the campaign. This is a premeditated and considered action.
MacNeil was stupid but frankly, it's irrelevant to his ability to be an MP. Sturgeon appears to have been fooled by a con artist and liar while conducting constituency business. Not a good thing but not the worst crime in the world I would expect she learned about the danger of being so credulous when dealing with the public.
Neither are cases of malfeasance and neither are even remotely similar. But worse, they are long standing known histories where the electorate has already judged and they don't agree with you. That seems to be the core of the problem, you can't stand that no-one shares your prejudiced, anti-Scottish worldview.
I think that the LD whip should be withdrawn. After that there is no sanction available. Of course if leaking confidential information to the press mandated a minister resigning from parliament; then we would have a by election nearly every week. There does need to be some perspective!
There are a few unanswered questions, not least is whether the leaked memo is an accurate description of Ms Sturgeons conversation with the French diplomat. Did the FM get what she wanted with a Conservative government? She certainly seemed to get on with him very happily at the recent face to face meetings.
On Carmichael, pure speculation but I wonder what would happen if he stepped down/was pushed?
Best case scenario for LDs - Jo Swinson stands and wins. Save the seat and get a female MP who also happens to be pretty good.
I thought the islanders were supposed to be averse to these Central Belt folk coming in and meddling in their affairs.
No, the worst possible candidate would be a local - because they would be local to either Orkney or Shetland and thus viewed with suspicion by residents of the other island group.
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
Pointing out how hypocritical the pious Nats are when their cupboards are jam packed with skeletons ( and taxpayer funded tartan trews ) - isn't stooping low - well not as low as fondling teenagers whilst your wife is pregnant.
It's total bollocks, but it gives an idea of their ambition. After Ramadi and Palmyra, they occupy half of Iraq and much of Syria. They really are a state, and they really are a clear and present danger to the West. And they expand, globally.
I've just realised that this could be Obama's legacy. What he is mainly remembered for. Not Obamacare or the stupid Peace Prize, but the President who let ISIS rise to power. Not good.
Since Saudi Arabia has already offered cash to buy one from Pakistan i'm sure the Saudis will share it with ISIS like the other military and financial aid they gave them.
There are a few unanswered questions, not least is whether the leaked memo is an accurate description of Ms Sturgeons conversation with the French diplomat. Did the FM get what she wanted with a Conservative government? She certainly seemed to get on with him very happily at the recent face to face meetings.
Except that question was answered within hours of the initial smear.
The FM and the French Ambassador and the French Consul all confirmed that it was never said. The memo itself said that the claim was highly unlikely.
Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.
The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.
According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.
Trident ain't going to work as a deterrent if ISIS get a nuke going. It is of course still a nuclear threat.
The problem with a nuclear deterrent is that it only deters those who wouldn't be crazy enough to attack in the first place.
And yet, in a world where ISIS might possess nukes, what kind of moron wants the UK to unilaterally disarm?
Oh look, those Islamofascist nutjobs have acquired the most powerful weapons on earth, we must set them a moral example by becoming a non-nuclear state immediately.
"what kind of moron wants the UK to unilaterally disarm?" That's easy, 3 letter word starts with S and ends with P.
Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.
The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.
According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.
Comments
Wow. Yvette, touted for so long as the shoe-in candidate. Now fourth behind a Butcher, a Tory, and "none of the above".
She has the momentum.
Burnham will be seen as Ed mark 2 - similar policies, backed by the Unions.
A lot of the electorate are going to be torn - do they vote for who they WANT (Burnham) or who they HAVE to vote for (Kendall).
It's a bit like what Kellner said re the GE - some people wanted to vote Lab but when it came to the crunch they couldn't. This will be the same - waverers will think that if they want Lab to win in 2020 they have to vote Kendall.
Should be fun. If she's built up a solid impression as a credible candidate, she might even manage that without losing the Tory comments about her being the most suitable for Labour.
Ed Miliband(!) 61
Keir Starmer 51
Dan Jarvis 49
Tristram Hunt 40
John McDonnell 33
Lisa Nandy 31
plus a few bits'n'bobs.
So, not particularly left-wing, and no one alternative candidate attracting significant support.
It's looking like 3 runners.
Good on Liz Kendall, she's the only candidate saying anything about the future direction of the party and seems to be of the centre ground where elections are won.
The question for her now is can the party stop taking to themselves and dare to go with a leader that appeals to more than the Labour core vote, to those that voted Tory and even UKIP in the past two elections? Over to you, Labour MPs...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32852568
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14kV5ayrHYc3c2snY5aI4vuhLG-98NOD-3aNG2LQxLvo/edit#gid=0
Not just because he has now been caught and only owned up when his totally dumb special adviser collapsed under questioning whenit was found that he used his offcial phone to speak to the Telegraph but also because the press now have a transcript of a TV interview where he claimed he only heard about the memo from a journalist.
Clearly that is a clear and direct lie during an election campaign to save his own skin and to deceive his constituents. He is a goner.
Andy Burnham: 1.98 (just short of evens)
Yvette Cooper: 6.00 (5/1)
Liz Kendall: 4.30 (100/30)
Andy Burnham may be favourite, but surely for him to be odds on this early is just too short?
She has set out a distinctive moderniser stall, but she also has made a number of pro-union statements. It will be an interesting campaign and she is certainly going down well in certain quarters. She had the lobby fawning over her last week.
The electorate is an unknown quantity, I do not think there has been an election where Labour supporters can buy a vote for £3 (and a whole lot of spam no doubt!). It is an interesting way of acquiring names for future contacts...
The Hustings on BBC 2 on 17 June in Nuneaton will be interesting indeed.
Getting a surprise lesson in Scottish scandals today, thanks to my apparent Twitter resemblance to @acarmichaelmp
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/064696c4-ffea-11e4-bc30-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3aVwCWbMX
I think the MSM should be quizzing Rennie and even Clegg about what they knew when. As Rennie was straight on this in the media etc, my suspicion is that Rennie was in the loop, so should be considering his position.
But there is no way to make him go.
I would therefore expect two weeks of intense pressure; two months of mild pressure; six month of sporadic news stories... and that will be about it.
I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020.
Blair was also arguably continuity Major for his first term (without the EU splits)
"I suspect, however, that he will not be the Liberal Democrat candidate for Orkney and Shetland in 2020"
Indeed. A number of PBers have advanced the view in the past that Shetland would never support the SNP as they supposedly did not regard themselves as Scottish.
Perhaps they should recognise that as just another unionist myth-some reports even suggest that the SNP actually won in Shetland, and that it was Orkney that saved Carmichael, though his majority was slashed to 800 or so.
Many of his constituents will be very disappointed in him in a seat where personal respect for the MP is more important than in many another place, and if he hangs on he will have to endure a much diminished respect from the islanders.
I wonder how often those of us who are members of a particular Party hear or become aware of something one of the senior members of the party has done and simply wonder why we bother being members at all.
As an LD, I'm having one of those moments now. Carmichael has behaved beyond stupidity - I would ask what he was thinking of but I can't determine any rational thought process at work here. As to whether it had any impact, I doubt it frankly but that's not the point.
He has disrespected the Party and Nicola Sturgeon and the French ambassador and not necessarily in that order. After the antics of Chris Huhne, Mike Hancock and David Laws I wonder if a clear out of the formerly great and good is long overdue. Whether or not the LDs become a politically significant force again is one question but that we should do led by figures of personal and political integrity is one that is for me a no-brainer.
We cannot afford blunders of this magnitude again - I know it's not what will happen but Carmichael should resign and publicly apologise - if the cost of that is the SNP gaining another seat and wiping out the LDs in Scotland that's a heavy price and one which integrity demands the party pays for the misdemeanour of one man.
What should happen is that both Tim Farron and Norman Lamb be pressed for their view. It could be quite revealing.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/601703179663888384
At 3:30:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z79bDyfZFI
I think that Rennie et al are hoping this is played out by Tuesday. Notable that they are dropping this on a similar timescale to the original smear attempt - on the eve of a holiday weekend.
Well said.
Calum
Did this report really cost £1.4 million? Where was that reported?
I think he is toast particularly because he a year or so back hinted at a retirement from politics. Why would he want to stay under these certain circumstances of being generally disregarded because of his conduct?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-447550/Sleazebuster-MPs-regret-bed-romp-teenage-girls.html
The MP who triggered the cash-for-honours probe has apologised to his family for cheating on his pregnant wife with two teenage girls.
Angus MacNeil described the tryst, just weeks before his wife gave birth, as "wrong and stupid".
The Scottish National Party MP shot to national prominence after making the police complaint that launched the cash-for-honours probe at Westminster.
But his reputation as a "sleazebuster" was in tatters last night after it emerged that he drunkenly kissed and fondled the girls in a hotel room.
If the Liberals don't at least withdraw the whip then I cannot see any way for Scott and McArthur to hang on to their seats. At least leaving him as an Independent will avoid further association with him (it almost worked with Joyce where the later transgressions saw the press label him as an Independent more often than ex-Labour MP).
Having said that, I'm not sure that even taking action will be enough, perhaps they will hold Orkney but as things stand they are not looking good for List seats never mind Constituencies.
#LibDemFightback immediately followed by serious #LibDemSetback.
Their only hope now is that Jo Grimond is spinning so fast in his grave he actually drills his way out back to the surface to take Carmichael's place.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/24/nicola-sturgeon-apologises-fraudster-letter
Scotland's deputy first minister appeared to have salvaged her political career after she apologised today for making significant errors of judgment in her defence of a twice-convicted fraudster.
Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs she was sorry for lobbying a court to give a constituent, Abdul Rauf, a non-custodial sentence after he admitted an £80,000 benefits fraud, and for calling his frauds, which included stealing £60,000 in pensions and benefit cheques more than 15 years ago, "mistakes".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9694513/Alex-Salmond-accused-of-wind-farm-cover-up.html
Best case scenario for LDs - Jo Swinson stands and wins. Save the seat and get a female MP who also happens to be pretty good.
Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit
News of undercover project emerges after Bank staff accidentally email details to the Guardian including PR notes on how to deny its existence
Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.
The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.
According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.
http://bit.ly/1F6vbM6
"The SNP won 37% in Orkney, one of their lowest scores in Scotland, their was already some evidence of tactical voting, eg the Tory vote fell slightly, but at 8.9% in 3rd still more to squeeze. In fact only 32% in Orkney voted for Independence, again 13% lower than Scotland as a whole (even lower than the 33% in the Borders) and the lowest in Scotland, Shetland was only a little higher at 36% "
So what? A number of people foolishly claimed that in the event of Scotland voting "Yes" , Shetland would have opted out of Scotland. An opinion poll, with over 80% denying that, proved the view that Shetland did not consider itself Scottish, was indeed the unionist myth to which I referred..
Incidentally, UKIP experienced the only fall in its vote in the whole of Britain in Orkney and Shetland in GE2015 cp. GE2010.
As for tactical voting, why should Tories vote for the LDs now? They're not in coalition any more. LDs are the enemy.
I think if you are going to attack Salmond and Sturgeon you should do rather better than cite the Scottish apendage of the Daily Telegraph, whose Scottish editor admitted in his "book" that he supressed stories to attack the NATS!
In other words find a newspaper to quote not the Scottish Torygraph which, unlike its London edition, doesn't even put up much of a pretence of being anything other than a propaganda sheet - and a very unsuccessful one at that!
If only life was so easy for every whistleblower/leaker who wanted to send something to the Press! I imagine Carmichael will be wondering why he didn't think of that.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8510133.stm
Scotland's deputy first minister is facing calls to resign after writing a letter in support of a man who could be jailed for benefit fraud.
8:32PM
I obviously underated just how low you like to stoop, which is obvious from your earlier post.
The very obvious difference between this case and the one in 2005 or a minor sex story which didn't seem to invlove much (if any) sex is that the MP in question has since stood for election and been re-elected overwhelmingly on two occasions by his god fearing constituents.
In contrast Carmichael kept his behaviour quiet indeed lied about it so that his constituents were not able to judge his behaviour. They should now have that opportunity.
Yanks are much harder on this sort of stuff. So God knows what the average American thinks of him.
And the rather obvious difference between the Carmichael case and the then Deputy First Minister is that she has since stood successfully for election and been returned overwhelmingly, has been elected First Minister and judged the most successful poltician across the UK in the recent election which returned 56 MPs out of a possible 59 for her party.
When will his constituents get the chance to judge Mr Carmichael?
You should stand for election to see how many people appreciate your obviously unblemished life and higher than thou standards.
In the meantime Carmichael should submit himself to the judgement of his constituents who he deliberately lied to as he attempted to smear the First Minister.
MacNeil was stupid but frankly, it's irrelevant to his ability to be an MP. Sturgeon appears to have been fooled by a con artist and liar while conducting constituency business. Not a good thing but not the worst crime in the world I would expect she learned about the danger of being so credulous when dealing with the public.
Neither are cases of malfeasance and neither are even remotely similar. But worse, they are long standing known histories where the electorate has already judged and they don't agree with you. That seems to be the core of the problem, you can't stand that no-one shares your prejudiced, anti-Scottish worldview.
There are a few unanswered questions, not least is whether the leaked memo is an accurate description of Ms Sturgeons conversation with the French diplomat. Did the FM get what she wanted with a Conservative government? She certainly seemed to get on with him very happily at the recent face to face meetings.
Better still, why is there a senior pollster writing a lengthy thread about a voodoo poll?
The FM and the French Ambassador and the French Consul all confirmed that it was never said. The memo itself said that the claim was highly unlikely.
That's easy, 3 letter word starts with S and ends with P.